Another humorous day. On the one hand, models. On the other, accumulated data.
At
NRO, an excerpt from an article at
The Telegraph (paywalled). The bit excerpted at NRO makes the amusing point:
"Data from the OECD show that accumulated growth over 2016-25 was: UK (13.2pc), France (11.9pc), Italy (9.2pc), and Germany (8.0pc). An economic historian looking back half a century hence would struggle to
detect any Brexit effect in the GDP figures.
The picture is less flattering in per capita terms, but the hard data does not validate claims that the UK economy has seen a cliff-edge fall since leaving the EU, which is a surprise to me given the adjustment shock. The proper question to ask is why the Eurozone keeps failing.
So how does one reach a conclusion that the UK economy is 6-8pc smaller than it would have been without Brexit? With difficulty, heroic cherry-picking, and a model so opaque that almost none of those who quote the findings as an article of faith have any idea how it was constructed."
"But the UK might have done better!". Maybe. But it sure isn't failing.