Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

[Remius]

Sure that's not the NDP list?

That’s my take. Clearly they are courting that vote.

 

[RangerRay]

The NDP will see the Liberals as a safe place to vote to keep the dastardly Tories out of power.

Trudeau forms another government after the next election.

 

[Quirky]

Ah yes. Supporting marginalized group = a mental health problem.

Choices have consequences. If they simply wanted to live their lives like everyone else no one would care. Instead they like to bring attention to themselves. “Who, who does not want to wear the ribbon!?”

 

[Remius]

11 interests me.

9 interests me. I would welcome something like that.

11 is of interest but I’m not sure it’s so something they can convince people of. I’ll be curious to see if the CPC has something similar when they update their policy direction.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Katie Telford says the National Security Intelligence Advisor reports directly to the Prime Minister and "There is nothing that is ever kept from the Prime Minister."

A report in 2021 appears to indicate the CSIS warning about an MP being targeted by China reached the national security advisor.

For some strange reason, Trudeau only learned about this when it broke the news. The topic of Chinese interference started popping up in earnest in November 2022. From then until now no one in the PMO thought to mention "Hey what about that memo that came through here regarding China and their diplomat TARGETING Michael Chong, his family, and other members of parliament?"

 

[Remius]

Latest polling.

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Looks like the seat differential has widened. The CPC is probably targeting the right areas and that the LPC is flailing in those same spots.

 

[Halifax Tar]

It will be interesting to see how JT and team play it if they loose the popular vote and seat count.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The problem for the Conservatives is that they really, really need to be in a "Majority or Bust" mode. If they win a working minority - one that a Liberal/NDP 'coalition' cannot prevent from even taking office - then it will, I'm about 90% sure, be a repeat of 1979/80 when Joe Clark won the battle and lost the war.

The numbers, as I see them, say that a CPC majority is a very slim prospect. If that's true; if that's the result then I think Pierre Poilievre is toast - and I wouldn't be amazed if it was another Mulroney who did him his, as old 'Fibber Muldoon' did in Joe Clark inn 1980.

As to Halifax Tar's point: Seat count matters most. Trudeau lost the popular vote to both Scheer and O'Toole and there was no outrage when he retained office because he won the most seats. Now, constitutionally, even IF Justin Trudeau loses the seat count he has the right to "meet" parliament and, after securing another Confidence and Supply Agreement with the NDP, try to govern; and he might succeed. Might IF the Tories only get one or two seats more than the CPC and IF the NDP is wiling, which it might not be under those circumstances.

My guess is that the Liberal Party will NOT try that, even if the Cons win just one more seat and even IF the LPC and NDP have 170+ combined seats. The Party is, still, bigger than Justin Trudeau, bigger even than the Trudeau name. I suspect that it sees trying to hang on to power after losing the seat count, no matter how slim the loss, as a poisoned chalice.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The problem for the Conservatives is that they really, really need to be in a "Majority or Bust" mode. If they win a working minority - one that a Liberal/NDP 'coalition' cannot prevent from even taking office - then it will, I'm about 90% sure, be a repeat of 1979/80 when Joe Clark won the battle and lost the war.

The numbers, as I see them, say that a CPC majority is a very slim prospect. If that's true; if that's the result then I think Pierre Poilievre is toast - and I wouldn't be amazed if it was another Mulroney who did him his, as old 'Fibber Muldoon' did in Joe Clark inn 1980.

As to Halifax Tar's point: Seat count matters most. Trudeau lost the popular vote to both Scheer and O'Toole and there was no outrage when he retained office because he won the most seats. Now, constitutionally, even IF Justin Trudeau loses the seat count he has the right to "meet" parliament and, after securing another Confidence and Supply Agreement with the NDP, try to govern; and he might succeed. Might IF the Tories only get one or two seats more than the CPC and IF the NDP is wiling, which it might not be under those circumstances.

My guess is that the Liberal Party will NOT try that, even if the Cons win just one more seat and even IF the LPC and NDP have 170+ combined seats. The Party is, still, bigger than Justin Trudeau, bigger even than the Trudeau name. I suspect that it sees trying to hang on to power after losing the seat count, no matter how slim the loss, as a poisoned chalice.

Oppositions, in minority scenarios, also have to be careful about toppling minority Govs. Do it too soon and you risk a repeat of 2006 and then 2008.

 

[ArmyRick]

The problem for the Conservatives is that they really, really need to be in a "Majority or Bust" mode. If they win a working minority - one that a Liberal/NDP 'coalition' cannot prevent from even taking office - then it will, I'm about 90% sure, be a repeat of 1979/80 when Joe Clark won the battle and lost the war.

The numbers, as I see them, say that a CPC majority is a very slim prospect. If that's true; if that's the result then I think Pierre Poilievre is toast - and I wouldn't be amazed if it was another Mulroney who did him his, as old 'Fibber Muldoon' did in Joe Clark inn 1980.

As to Halifax Tar's point: Seat count matters most. Trudeau lost the popular vote to both Scheer and O'Toole and there was no outrage when he retained office because he won the most seats. Now, constitutionally, even IF Justin Trudeau loses the seat count he has the right to "meet" parliament and, after securing another Confidence and Supply Agreement with the NDP, try to govern; and he might succeed. Might IF the Tories only get one or two seats more than the CPC and IF the NDP is wiling, which it might not be under those circumstances.

My guess is that the Liberal Party will NOT try that, even if the Cons win just one more seat and even IF the LPC and NDP have 170+ combined seats. The Party is, still, bigger than Justin Trudeau, bigger even than the Trudeau name. I suspect that it sees trying to hang on to power after losing the seat count, no matter how slim the loss, as a poisoned chalice.

Looking at more recent history. Harper held two minorities and then secured a majority in 2011.

The Liberals at the time of the Harper days were flailing badly. Dion than Ignatieff, both costing them victories. I still believe it was Trudeau name (a brand so to speak) and Canadians boredom with Harper that got that landslide in 2015.

I also look at the Wynne effect (and it happened in Alberta, although not as severe), 2014, big majority, 2018, she couldn't fill a minivan. With Wynne, soaring Hydro cost was the number one sink for her. All her other ideology nonsense didn't help her.

I truly think the polls aren't showing the truth (even though they show PP favourably), I believe Trudeau is going to lose big. Canadians are fed up with not paying bills and feeding their families.

 

[Remius]

It will be interesting to see how JT and team play it if they loose the popular vote and seat count.

My guess is that panic mode will ensue if the popular vote spread widens beyond the margin of error. Things will get dirtier at that point.

I’m on the side that even if the LPC loses the seat count they won’t try to form government. My guess is Trudeau will be finished if he loses. I suspect a quick election after that but only if the the LPC is disciplined enough to get a new leader in place.

And I am fairly certain that moves are already in play for that eventuality.

 

[ArmyRick]

My guess is that panic mode will ensue if the popular vote spread widens beyond the margin of error. Things will get dirtier at that point.

I’m on the side that even if the LPC loses the seat count they won’t try to form government. My guess is Trudeau will be finished if he loses. I suspect a quick election after that but only if the the LPC is disciplined enough to get a new leader in place.

And I am fairly certain that moves are already in play for that eventuality.

Been a lot of talk about Mark Carney (former B of C gov) is a front runner as Trudeau's replacement. I am assuming that Trudeau realizes their is talk behind is back of Liberals, Post Trudeau.

 

[Remius]

Looking at more recent history. Harper held two minorities and then secured a majority in 2011.

I think Harper knew how to slowly get there. I also think he ran his party with an iron fist to help with that and the liberals kept screwing themselves up with weak leadership contenders. No one one knows for sure but I think the LOC have 2 or 3 strong contenders waiting in the wings. I can see Carney and Anand on that list.

The Liberals at the time of the Harper days were flailing badly. Dion than Ignatieff, both costing them victories. I still believe it was Trudeau name (a brand so to speak) and Canadians boredom with Harper that got that landslide in 2015.

The CPC was definitely at the end of its shelf life. And Trudeau was far more appealing than what was previously on offer. Which ironically is where Trudeau finds himself now.

I also look at the Wynne effect (and it happened in Alberta, although not as severe), 2014, big majority, 2018, she couldn't fill a minivan. With Wynne, soaring Hydro cost was the number one sink for her. All her other ideology nonsense didn't help her.

People’s pocket books were directly affected by those policies. And it got progressively worse. Voters also got over their fear of Ford.

I truly think the polls aren't showing the truth (even though they show PP favourably), I believe Trudeau is going to lose big. Canadians are fed up with not paying bills and feeding their families.

It’s possible. Time can change a lot and I know I sound like a broken record but campaigns matter and I think even more in this next one. The last two weeks of the next campaign will be the big deciding factor.

 

[Remius]

Been a lot of talk about Mark Carney (former B of C gov) is a front runner as Trudeau's replacement. I am assuming that Trudeau realizes their is talk behind is back of Liberals, Post Trudeau.

Yeah. I think chess pieces are being moved and plays are being made for certain. Carney is playing close hold but it’s fairly obvious.

 

[ArmyRick]

I think Harper knew how to slowly get there. I also think he ran his party with an iron fist to help with that and the liberals kept screwing themselves up with weak leadership contenders. No one one knows for sure but I think the LOC have 2 or 3 strong contenders waiting in the wings. I can see Carney and Anand on that list.

The CPC was definitely at the end of its shelf life. And Trudeau was far more appealing than what was previously on offer. Which ironically is where Trudeau finds himself now.

People’s pocket books were directly affected by those policies. And it got progressively worse. Voters also got over their fear of Ford.

It’s possible. Time can change a lot and I know I sound like a broken record but campaigns matter and I think even more in this next one. The last two weeks of the next campaign will be the big deciding factor.

The MOST dangerous thing to happen to the CPC at this point (In my humble opinion), is if the Liberals had a snap leadership change. A change in LPC leadership could revive many of the people who have turned away from them because of Trudeau.

 

[Halifax Tar]

My guess is that panic mode will ensue if the popular vote spread widens beyond the margin of error. Things will get dirtier at that point.

I’m on the side that even if the LPC loses the seat count they won’t try to form government. My guess is Trudeau will be finished if he loses. I suspect a quick election after that but only if the the LPC is disciplined enough to get a new leader in place.

And I am fairly certain that moves are already in play for that eventuality.

It will be interesting to see what happens if the CPC win a minority and continue to grow the popular vote even more.

I think the only way JT is going to get removed from leadership of that party is by party membership forcing him out. His narcissism just wont let him walk away, and losing to PP would be a bitter bitter taste for him.

Been a lot of talk about Mark Carney (former B of C gov) is a front runner as Trudeau's replacement. I am assuming that Trudeau realizes their is talk behind is back of Liberals, Post Trudeau.

Mark Carney could be trouble for the CPCs. I see him as a Blue Liberal. He could be the centrist they need.

 

[Lumber]

The MOST dangerous thing to happen to the CPC at this point (In my humble opinion), is if the Liberals had a snap leadership change. A change in LPC leadership could revive many of the people who have turned away from them because of Trudeau.

Personally I don't think it's just the leadership, but the policies and decisions of that leadership.

I know you all hate Trudeau, but other than his smugness, what you really hate are his policies; his carbon tax, his gun laws, his "woke" agenda, etc.

If Mark Carney comes in and keeps the same policies, then PP will look as attractive as he does.

Plus, what's REALLY got people pissed off is how much their wages are being stretch due to inflation, housing prices, and the world economy. These are cutting into people's wallets far more than any of Trudeau/the LPC's policies. So, it wouldn't matter who the LPC leader was; the people who currently dislike Trudeau will continue to blame the new PM for these same woes.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I think Harper knew how to slowly get there. I also think he ran his party with an iron fist to help with that and the liberals kept screwing themselves up with weak leadership contenders. No one one knows for sure but I think the LOC have 2 or 3 strong contenders waiting in the wings. I can see Carney and Anand on that list.

The CPC was definitely at the end of its shelf life. And Trudeau was far more appealing than what was previously on offer. Which ironically is where Trudeau finds himself now.

People’s pocket books were directly affected by those policies. And it got progressively worse. Voters also got over their fear of Ford.

It’s possible. Time can change a lot and I know I sound like a broken record but campaigns matter and I think even more in this next one. The last two weeks of the next campaign will be the big deciding factor.

Harper campaigned too long. If you remember Parliament dissolved on 2 Aug and the election was held on 19 Oct.

Harper started that campaign looking like he was going to win, and ended not lookin the same way.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Trudeau lost the popular vote to both Scheer and O'Toole and there was no outrage when he retained office because he won the most seats.

There was no outrage because the CPC didn't win that way. I suppose that we'd get the same outpouring that Americans do when Republicans win something by the rules, but without the popular vote.

 

[Brad Sallows]

And Trudeau was far more appealing than what was previously on offer.

What was previously on offer were solid intellects with good work habits. Style won versus substance, which emptied out all the protestations of the "reality-based community" that they were serious people.