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Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

The supply increase has to be what people need/want (ie. where they need/want it). If rabbit warrens are built, they will undoubtedly be occupied if people have no other affordable options. Some of those people are likely to keep looking, and that demand should keep prices up in the places people prefer to live.

The "sustainability" critics are basically saying "we can't do this" and demanding people conform to something other than what people want. That strategy will eventually fail. Only severely oppressive governments can force people to accept too many limitations. The people who think they deserve to run the show really do need to figure out how to meet demand, not set limits on it.
 
There's probably nothing he can do about it anyways. Economic forces will likely influence a big upswing in housing prices...

The Scale of the Wealth Transfer​

The numbers are staggering. A 2023 report by Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada estimated that a massive $1 trillion is expected to change hands between Canadian baby boomers and their children between 2023 and 2026. A significant portion of this wealth is tied to real estate. Many baby boomers have benefited from decades of rising property values, making their homes substantial assets to pass on.

Keith Willoughby from the Edwards School of Business at the University of Saskatchewan aptly describes this as a "trillion-dollar tsunami" poised to impact the nation. This phenomenon is particularly evident in major urban centers like Toronto and Vancouver, where property values have seen the most dramatic increases. However, this trend is also noticeable in provinces like Saskatchewan, indicating a widespread national impact.

Impact on the Housing Market​

One of the most direct impacts of this wealth transfer is on the housing market. As younger generations receive inheritances or gifts, a portion of these funds is being channeled back into real estate. This can take the form of direct down payments on homes or using gifted funds to purchase property outright.

This influx of capital into the housing market occurs at a time when Canada is already facing a housing shortage. With limited housing supply, increased demand driven by wealth transfer is likely to exert upward pressure on home prices. Economist Willoughby points out that if the supply of homes doesn't increase to meet this new demand, the natural outcome will be a rise in equilibrium prices across the housing market, including single-family homes, condos, and recreational properties.

Data from CIBC highlights this trend. In 2024, 31 percent of first-time homebuyers in Canada received financial assistance from family members to purchase a home, a significant increase from 20 percent in 2015. This demonstrates the growing reliance on family wealth for entering the housing market. Furthermore, the average value of these financial gifts has surged, jumping from $66,000 in 2019 to $115,000 in 2024. This substantial increase in both the prevalence and size of gifts underscores the significant role that wealth transfer plays in facilitating homeownership for younger Canadians.


Would you happen to have Willoughby's actual work on the subject? Quotes for blog post don't tell the whole story, but I think he's failing to account for a significant portion of the wealth transfer coming not in the form of disposable funds, but in now vacant housing stock.

I think that you may have misunderstood "Willoughby's" participation in the story. My take is that he was only commenting on the suggested wealth transfer and in doing so coined the phrase "trillion dollar tsunami". It makes for a good quote and while his assessment of the phenomenon may be valid (he is after all Dean of a Saskatchewan business school), he may have been identified so as to attribute the comment and for discussion of Saskatchewan farm inheritance value. As for the "actual work", that blog seems to have been culled from a CBC (Saskatchewan) story.


As to the reference to a 2023 CPACanada report, the closest I could find is https://www.cpacanada.ca/news/pivot-magazine/trickle-down-wealth

Though, if you want more, this from Macleans may suffice.
 
There's probably nothing he can do about it anyways. Economic forces will likely influence a big upswing in housing prices...

The Scale of the Wealth Transfer​

The numbers are staggering. A 2023 report by Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada estimated that a massive $1 trillion is expected to change hands between Canadian baby boomers and their children between 2023 and 2026. A significant portion of this wealth is tied to real estate. Many baby boomers have benefited from decades of rising property values, making their homes substantial assets to pass on.

Keith Willoughby from the Edwards School of Business at the University of Saskatchewan aptly describes this as a "trillion-dollar tsunami" poised to impact the nation. This phenomenon is particularly evident in major urban centers like Toronto and Vancouver, where property values have seen the most dramatic increases. However, this trend is also noticeable in provinces like Saskatchewan, indicating a widespread national impact.

Impact on the Housing Market​

One of the most direct impacts of this wealth transfer is on the housing market. As younger generations receive inheritances or gifts, a portion of these funds is being channeled back into real estate. This can take the form of direct down payments on homes or using gifted funds to purchase property outright.

This influx of capital into the housing market occurs at a time when Canada is already facing a housing shortage. With limited housing supply, increased demand driven by wealth transfer is likely to exert upward pressure on home prices. Economist Willoughby points out that if the supply of homes doesn't increase to meet this new demand, the natural outcome will be a rise in equilibrium prices across the housing market, including single-family homes, condos, and recreational properties.

Data from CIBC highlights this trend. In 2024, 31 percent of first-time homebuyers in Canada received financial assistance from family members to purchase a home, a significant increase from 20 percent in 2015. This demonstrates the growing reliance on family wealth for entering the housing market. Furthermore, the average value of these financial gifts has surged, jumping from $66,000 in 2019 to $115,000 in 2024. This substantial increase in both the prevalence and size of gifts underscores the significant role that wealth transfer plays in facilitating homeownership for younger Canadians.


An issue is the 'lifestyle' that those that are about to receive this pile of gold from their (mostly), 'live within their means' parents.

I see people in my neighbourhood 15+yrs younger than me driving high-end cars, kids having the latest fashion clothes, vacations to the Carib or Europe, lawn maintenance crews, house cleaners, etc and I KNOW that these people make either less than my wife or I or make the same - but I've got zero clue how they are pulling it all off. Either their parents already passed along some of the inheritance money earlier or they have maxed out their home credit line waiting for their parents to died and pay it all off.

I bought a new car for myself 11 months ago (a Toyota Corolla Hybrid) and passed my 2008 Honda Civic (151,000km) to my 2 teenaged kids and all they do is complain about driving 'such an old crappy car' because their fiends got used Audi A6's, a used Infiniti SUV or in another case a brand new Range Rover - its unreal.

I still ask myself this question on any purchase over 150$ - 'Do I need this or do I want this'? Or even this question, 'If I do actually need this, how can I go about getting it 'X' amount cheaper? I guess I'm just old, I'm 55, and can still remember growing up in a 1 bathroom house that only had a tub, no shower. I can still remember the first time I took a shower in a hotel in Toronto when I was 12yrs old on 1 of only 2 family vacations that I can remember didn't involve visiting/staying with family.

Its a different world now I guess, those younger want to be seen as 'green' but won't live in a house with only 9ft ceilings, they need to have 11 or even 12ft ceilings. They want a 'green' battery lawnmower , not a gas mower because that's bad, but at the same time need to have their inground pool natural gas heated, without a solar cover, from mid-May to mid Oct constantly at 28c. Its crazy. The churn through new Apple phones like they are Pez dispensers but make no effort to even grow their own tomato plants in pots on their giant newly poured exposed aggregate cement patios.
 
This is a catch-22. Because we treat housing as an investment. If prices comes down substantially, it will affect people's bottom lines. Not the rich but regular people especially in high price areas. Is there the political will to have people lose potentially large sums of their home equity.

What we need is affordable housing. Remember post war the houses were 600-900 sq ft and manufactured kits.
Until the 1950s, you could even mail order a kit to build a house.
 
An issue is the 'lifestyle' that those that are about to receive this pile of gold from their (mostly), 'live within their means' parents.

I see people in my neighbourhood 15+yrs younger than me driving high-end cars, kids having the latest fashion clothes, vacations to the Carib or Europe, lawn maintenance crews, house cleaners, etc and I KNOW that these people make either less than my wife or I or make the same - but I've got zero clue how they are pulling it all off. Either their parents already passed along some of the inheritance money earlier or they have maxed out their home credit line waiting for their parents to died and pay it all off.

I bought a new car for myself 11 months ago (a Toyota Corolla Hybrid) and passed my 2008 Honda Civic (151,000km) to my 2 teenaged kids and all they do is complain about driving 'such an old crappy car' because their fiends got used Audi A6's, a used Infiniti SUV or in another case a brand new Range Rover - its unreal.

I still ask myself this question on any purchase over 150$ - 'Do I need this or do I want this'? Or even this question, 'If I do actually need this, how can I go about getting it 'X' amount cheaper? I guess I'm just old, I'm 55, and can still remember growing up in a 1 bathroom house that only had a tub, no shower. I can still remember the first time I took a shower in a hotel in Toronto when I was 12yrs old on 1 of only 2 family vacations that I can remember didn't involve visiting/staying with family.

Its a different world now I guess, those younger want to be seen as 'green' but won't live in a house with only 9ft ceilings, they need to have 11 or even 12ft ceilings. They want a 'green' battery lawnmower , not a gas mower because that's bad, but at the same time need to have their inground pool natural gas heated, without a solar cover, from mid-May to mid Oct constantly at 28c. Its crazy. The churn through new Apple phones like they are Pez dispensers but make no effort to even grow their own tomato plants in pots on their giant newly poured exposed aggregate cement patios.

I see the same stuff. I have to imagine people are just saying fuck it and diving deep into debt or they have alternative means earning.
 
What's the going range for a builder, say $150-300/sqft? You're still under 300k for a new build on a 1000sqft house. What we need is affordable land.
We built in Ottawa in 2017 for about $210 sqft (finished), inclusive of land costs on a 45’x100’ lot… Unfinished large basement, maybe another 800sqft there? The same house now would be about $350/sqft. Half a million in land value. This is an unremarkable suburban of Ottawa. Our house doubled in value in seven years based almost entirely on land value.


We own a condo too. We don’t want the value of either to go down of course for purely selfish reasons… But I also have a near-two year old (currently crawling on me and stealing my sunglasses/putting them back on me), and I want him and his cousins to own homes one day too. So it’s a bit of a pickle.
 
We built in Ottawa in 2017 for about $210 sqft (finished), inclusive of land costs on a 45’x100’ lot… Unfinished large basement, maybe another 800sqft there? The same house now would be about $350/sqft. Half a million in land value. This is an unremarkable suburban of Ottawa. Our house doubled in value in seven years based almost entirely on land value.


We own a condo too. We don’t want the value of either to go down of course for purely selfish reasons… But I also have a near-two year old (currently crawling on me and stealing my sunglasses/putting them back on me), and I want him and his cousins to own homes one day too. So it’s a bit of a pickle.
The lack of Logan's Run GIFs is troubling.
 
During my 32-year military career we lived in many PMQs, all of the mid-1950s vintage and certainly housing at its most basic. I believe the styles were generally based on the post-war government housing of the late 1940s. I see a lot of derision for repeating a project like this again, because the "housing just isn't good enough for today's demanding populace". Well, this house is on sale just up the street from me. No basement, no garage, slab foundation, crappy location (Pat Bay Highway in the background). In the 16 years we have lived in this neighbourhood this house has sold about four times and has always sold relatively quickly, for near or more than asking price. It is now on sale for pennies less that $1 million. I appreciate that living on the Saanich Peninsula adds a significant premium to the cost of housing, but my point is that people are happy to live in houses like this, of a lesser quality than many PMQs we live in. I would not be so quick to dismiss the construction of 2025-code versions of our old PMQs.
 

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What's the going range for a builder, say $150-300/sqft? You're still under 300k for a new build on a 1000sqft house. What we need is affordable land.

Outside of the HRM (Halifax), rural land is going for under $40K, but then adding in the basic costs to:
  • clear the land,
  • install septic system,
  • drill and install well,
  • run power from the main line to the mast,
  • install driveway to the main road (right-of-way access),
  • inspections, surveys, ect...
all add up to $140K before considering the cost of the building itself.
 
We built in Ottawa in 2017 for about $210 sqft (finished), inclusive of land costs on a 45’x100’ lot… Unfinished large basement, maybe another 800sqft there? The same house now would be about $350/sqft. Half a million in land value. This is an unremarkable suburban of Ottawa. Our house doubled in value in seven years based almost entirely on land value.


We own a condo too. We don’t want the value of either to go down of course for purely selfish reasons… But I also have a near-two year old (currently crawling on me and stealing my sunglasses/putting them back on me), and I want him and his cousins to own homes one day too. So it’s a bit of a pickle.

I'd rather toil and struggle than my kid. But that's just me. I'm fine if my home value goes down if it means my daughter gets the same opportunities or better than I.

If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace.

Thomas Paine
 
I'd rather toil and struggle than my kid. But that's just me. I'm fine if my home value goes down if it means my daughter gets the same opportunities or better than I.

If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace.

Thomas Paine
But isn’t that the derision older generations give the current one? Bred to be weak. Easy times make men weak and all that.

Just to be clear I share your sentiment. My grandparents wanted a better life for their kids. And my parents wanted us to have at least a good one as well.
 
Another hitch in green gitalong.


Chinese “kill switches” have been found hidden in American solar farms, prompting calls for Ed Miliband to halt the rollout of renewables.

On Thursday, the Energy Secretary was urged to impose an “immediate pause” on his green energy blitz to review whether UK solar plants are also at risk.

The components found in the US included cellular radios capable of switching off the equipment remotely, raising serious concerns about grid security, according to Reuters.

They were found inside power inverters manufactured by unnamed Chinese companies.

Power inverters are the key links between solar or wind farms and the rest of the power system, converting their electricity so the wider grid can use it.

When is Guilbeault's next cultural exchange with China?
 
This is a catch-22. Because we treat housing as an investment. If prices comes down substantially, it will affect people's bottom lines. Not the rich but regular people especially in high price areas. Is there the political will to have people lose potentially large sums of their home equity.

What we need is affordable housing. Remember post war the houses were 600-900 sq ft and manufactured kits.
Government doesn’t want prices to come down for several reasons.

1) older people vote and most own homes.
2) plenty of Canadians rely on housing values to live their lifestyle, reverse mortgages, helocs, etc. if the value goes down that gets effected.
3) higher value properties mean more property taxes, more interest paid to the banks, and more equity for people that owned before hand. Generally government is full of people who have those assets not lack them.
 
I bought a new car for myself 11 months ago (a Toyota Corolla Hybrid) and passed my 2008 Honda Civic (151,000km) to my 2 teenaged kids and all they do is complain about driving 'such an old crappy car' because their fiends got used Audi A6's, a used Infiniti SUV or in another case a brand new Range Rover - its unreal.
2008 Honda? That's practically new. Should be good for another 100k km. High school car with all the doors the same colour is purest luxury.
Its a different world now I guess, those younger want to be seen as 'green' but won't live in a house with only 9ft ceilings, they need to have 11 or even 12ft ceilings.
Awful lot of new-build with significant two-story voids, on top of the ceiling height thing. Can't imagine the heating bills, even with all the latest efficiency measures. I also wish them the best of it when the LEDs in the ceiling fixture finally give up.
They want a 'green' battery lawnmower , not a gas mower because that's bad, but at the same time need to have their inground pool natural gas heated, without a solar cover, from mid-May to mid Oct constantly at 28c. Its crazy. The churn through new Apple phones like they are Pez dispensers but make no effort to even grow their own tomato plants in pots on their giant newly poured exposed aggregate cement patios.
Little bits of electronic tat everywhere, too: multiple control stations for the HVAC, cameras and mics and security systems galore, various sorts of door-lock "innovations," and, yeah, acres of "outdoor spaces" sprinkled with woven plastic furniture. Speaking of the heating: if it's October through March in BC, consider putting on another layer before you turn the heat up, not keeping the house at t-shirt temps.

Did some door-install and related fussy carpentry work with an older fellow around Nanaimo over the last few years, so have seen a fair spread of newer homes and renos.

Anyways, back to the politicians.
 
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