Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[ArmyRick]

Crime severity index drops for the first time in awhile

Crime severity index dropped four per cent last year, Statistics Canada says

The national statistics agency says the volume and severity of police-reported crime in Canada decreased four per cent last year, after three annual increases in a row.

www.ctvnews.ca

I wouldn't be trying to parade that around. I don't think most inner city folks agree with you (whatever the statistics)

 

[ArmyRick]

Crime severity index drops for the first time in awhile

From here The Daily — Police-reported crime statistics in Canada, 2024

National homicide rate declines for second consecutive year, but more women victims of homicide​

8 fewer homicides is nothing to jump up and down about

"Police reported 788 homicides in 2024, 8 fewer than a year earlier. The homicide rate declined 4%, from 1.99 homicides per 100,000 population in 2023 to 1.91 in 2024."

Take NOTE

There were 28 more women homicide victims in 2024 than in 2023, and 34 fewer men. There was also a large increase in the proportion of women who were killed by a spouse or intimate partner, increasing from 32% of women victims in 2023 to 42% of women victims in 2024. More specifically, the proportion of women who were killed by their spouse or intimate partner (42%) was approximately seven times higher than the proportion of men

 

[MilEME09]

From here The Daily — Police-reported crime statistics in Canada, 2024

National homicide rate declines for second consecutive year, but more women victims of homicide​

8 fewer homicides is nothing to jump up and down about

"Police reported 788 homicides in 2024, 8 fewer than a year earlier. The homicide rate declined 4%, from 1.99 homicides per 100,000 population in 2023 to 1.91 in 2024."

Take NOTE

There were 28 more women homicide victims in 2024 than in 2023, and 34 fewer men. There was also a large increase in the proportion of women who were killed by a spouse or intimate partner, increasing from 32% of women victims in 2023 to 42% of women victims in 2024. More specifically, the proportion of women who were killed by their spouse or intimate partner (42%) was approximately seven times higher than the proportion of men

nothing to brag about, but dropping 2 years in a row is something we can take note of as a positive sign, but the data shows we still have a massive issue with IPV, thats growing, I do believe it's not that the issue is necessarily growing, I think more woman are finally just reporting, and understand what abuse is. The murder rate as a result spikes when partners get angry that they are about to leave and seek help.

 

[PrairieFella]

John Robson: Carney's conflict-of-interest falsehoods part of a long history of mistruths

How can we trust him on anything, from balancing the budget while running deficits to ethics or even climate?

nationalpost.com

PMMC not impressing at the NP.

NP not liking Carney? Next thing you know, they'll be saying the sky is blue!

 

[PrairieFella]

Reminds me of the Manitoba Government budget questionnaire a few years ago.

We should we spend the surplus on:
a) tax cuts
b) pay down debt
c) rebate cheques for everyone

That’s it. That’s your choice. The rest of the “consultation” survey was like that. No open ended questions.

God was Stephenson and her government brutal lol.

 

[PrairieFella]

Fair point. But it makes sense if you want to increase revenue while keeping the deficit down and service the debt.

You have to remember the Conservatives (and Liberals) have zero actual interest in reducing the deficit, they want political points. Welcome to fractional reserve banking and quantitive easing haha!

 

[PrairieFella]

I wouldn't be trying to parade that around. I don't think most inner city folks agree with you (whatever the statistics)

Live downtown Winnipeg. Beyond gangland shit and a couple one offs, pretty calm summer honestly.

 

[Czech_pivo]

So Japan and the US came to an agreement of 15% tariffs on Japanese goods and the ‘investment’ of 500$ billion USD by them in the US and ‘90% of the profits’ will stay in the US.

Things are not looking good for Canada.

The Philippines got 19% tariffs and the UK got 10%.

So our possible band is somewhere between 10% and 19% range. Unless he is hell bent on ‘breaking us’ in which case we are looking at 20+%.

At the moment, things look grim from where I’m sitting. I would expect the US and our stock markets to start to pull back significantly over the next 6-8 trading days unless there is some good news.

 

[daftandbarmy]

So Japan and the US came to an agreement of 15% tariffs on Japanese goods and the ‘investment’ of 500$ billion USD by them in the US and ‘90% of the profits’ will stay in the US.

Things are not looking good for Canada.

The Philippines got 19% tariffs and the UK got 10%.

So our possible band is somewhere between 10% and 19% range. Unless he is hell bent on ‘breaking us’ in which case we are looking at 20+%.

At the moment, things look grim from where I’m sitting. I would expect the US and our stock markets to start to pull back significantly over the next 6-8 trading days unless there is some good news.

Not really... the tariffs will only impacts a small % of Canadian goods outside of CUSMA, and the world still needs our commodities

 

[Navy_Pete]

How are any of the Japan 'concessions' even enforceable? Japan as a country isn't going to invest directly in the US, is the US directing them to get their private corporations to invest in the US? Seems pretty communist.

Good luck selling US cars or rice in Japan though. They can export whatever they want, doesn't mean anyone will want to buy anything from the abusive neighbour down the way.

 

[brihard]

So Japan and the US came to an agreement of 15% tariffs on Japanese goods and the ‘investment’ of 500$ billion USD by them in the US and ‘90% of the profits’ will stay in the US.

Things are not looking good for Canada.

The Philippines got 19% tariffs and the UK got 10%.

So our possible band is somewhere between 10% and 19% range. Unless he is hell bent on ‘breaking us’ in which case we are looking at 20+%.

At the moment, things look grim from where I’m sitting. I would expect the US and our stock markets to start to pull back significantly over the next 6-8 trading days unless there is some good news.

Even 10-20% baseline tariff deals mean that American consumers and importers are getting taxed that additional 10-20% on their purchases. That will drive consumer costs up but will not serve to push most manufacturing onshore in the U.S. It will diminish purchasing power, and it will motivate everyone else to seek to maximize reciprocal free trade deals amongst each other. Those deals will result in foreign suppliers having a competitive advantage over American suppliers of goods and services who are not part of free trade agreements and who will generally struggle to provide those products more cheaply due to labour costs.

Countriea don’t generally trade with each other. Companies do. Companies will seek the most predictable, stable, advantageous trade deals for themselves. Americans aren’t yet seeing the risk premium they’re imposing on themselves, but they will.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Even 10-20% baseline tariff deals mean that American consumers and importers are getting taxed that additional 10-20% on their purchases. That will drive consumer costs up but will not serve to push most manufacturing onshore in the U.S. It will diminish purchasing power, and it will motivate everyone else to seek to maximize reciprocal free trade deals amongst each other. Those deals will result in foreign suppliers having a competitive advantage over American suppliers of goods and services who are not part of free trade agreements and who will generally struggle to provide those products more cheaply due to labour costs.

Countriea don’t generally trade with each other. Companies do. Companies will seek the most predictable, stable, advantageous trade deals for themselves. Americans aren’t yet seeing the risk premium they’re imposing on themselves, but they will.

I 100% understand the trading implications that will be occurring over the next 12+ months.
Business naturally moves to where there is profit, preferably more profit than where they were last located.

I keep coming back to the old Auto Pact of 1965 in my head and wonder if this would be a better solution for us today under Trump. We are now at the point that we produce fewer vehicles in Canada than what we purchase. This is a drastic change from as little as 15yrs ago.
Shifting back to the Auto Pact, where the policy was, for every car sold in Canada, a car must be produced, would lead to a larger number of overall vehicles produced in Canada again, somewhere north of 300k/yr. What would change would be the composition of what cars would be available tariff free. Obviously Korean vehicles are not produced in Canada and we have a FTA with them already, so adjustments maybe necessary.
We produce more Civics, Corollas, CRV and RAV4 than we purchase, so Honda/Toyota would have to adjust. This would be the case for a lot of the companies.

 

[PrairieFella]

At the moment, things look grim from where I’m sitting. I would expect the US and our stock markets to start to pull back significantly over the next 6-8 trading days unless there is some good news.

Unless the Europeans can come through clutch, it unfortunately may be time to start limited negotiating with China. Allowing BYD to manufacture in S Ont and sell in Canada maybe in exchange for tariffs and duties being lifted? That said, I'm hoping that 15-20% won't be enough to onshore manufacturing to the US and we can squeak by for a couple years until someone more rational comes along. That said, who's to say the next guy won't be even more mercenary than the Mafia-Don-in-Chief to the South.

 

[RangerRay]

Live downtown Winnipeg. Beyond gangland shit and a couple one offs, pretty calm summer honestly.

Just lock your doors when you’re driving on Main north of Disraeli and don’t stop if someone wanders into traffic

 

[CBH99]

You have to remember the Conservatives (and Liberals) have zero actual interest in reducing the deficit, they want political points. Welcome to fractional reserve banking and quantitive easing haha!

I don't know...I'm under the impression that under the last Conservative government, our national debt has started to get paid down.

Less national debt = less money spent paying the interest.

And since our interest payment last year was more than what we paid in provincial health transfers I think any government would (or at least should) want that debt as low as possible

 

[Czech_pivo]

Unless the Europeans can come through clutch, it unfortunately may be time to start limited negotiating with China. Allowing BYD to manufacture in S Ont and sell in Canada maybe in exchange for tariffs and duties being lifted? That said, I'm hoping that 15-20% won't be enough to onshore manufacturing to the US and we can squeak by for a couple years until someone more rational comes along. That said, who's to say the next guy won't be even more mercenary than the Mafia-Don-in-Chief to the South.

If we are saddled with 15-20% tariffs say hello to a CAD dollar around 65-70 cents forever, as the Feds will try to use a low CAD as a way to keep US companies within Canada. A low CAD will ,force’ Canadians to stay more within Canada for vacations, with Cuba/Dominican becoming the go-to places in the winter.

 

[lenaitch]

Unless the Europeans can come through clutch, it unfortunately may be time to start limited negotiating with China. Allowing BYD to manufacture in S Ont and sell in Canada maybe in exchange for tariffs and duties being lifted? That said, I'm hoping that 15-20% won't be enough to onshore manufacturing to the US and we can squeak by for a couple years until someone more rational comes along. That said, who's to say the next guy won't be even more mercenary than the Mafia-Don-in-Chief to the South.

Tariffs aside, I doubt a Canadian-only market would be worth setting up shop here. BYD et al are free to make their products TC/DOT compliant.

 

[YZT580]

Unless the Europeans can come through clutch, it unfortunately may be time to start limited negotiating with China. Allowing BYD to manufacture in S Ont and sell in Canada maybe in exchange for tariffs and duties being lifted? That said, I'm hoping that 15-20% won't be enough to onshore manufacturing to the US and we can squeak by for a couple years until someone more rational comes along. That said, who's to say the next guy won't be even more mercenary than the Mafia-Don-in-Chief to the South.

which would only drive us further into the hole. We need products going out to other countries, not a potential enemy moving in. China has seduced us with their low prices but those prices come on the backs of slave labour. Their silk road has bankrupted every country it has reached

 

[HavokFour]

How are any of the Japan 'concessions' even enforceable? Japan as a country isn't going to invest directly in the US, is the US directing them to get their private corporations to invest in the US? Seems pretty communist.

Good luck selling US cars or rice in Japan though. They can export whatever they want, doesn't mean anyone will want to buy anything from the abusive neighbour down the way.

I too notice that no such mechanism exists to "keep" 90% of the profits and who exactly, there also isn't a timeline for the investment. Huge grain of salt on anything coming out of that admin, this agreement can easily disappear into the void by next week or may have happened at all. Japan might very well just be appeasing Trump but not actually signing anything as a way to wait out the next 3 and a half years.

 

[Eaglelord17]

which would only drive us further into the hole. We need products going out to other countries, not a potential enemy moving in. China has seduced us with their low prices but those prices come on the backs of slave labour. Their silk road has bankrupted every country it has reached

And the US wasn’t using exploitative labour? What do you think all those illegal immigrants were doing in America?

I am all for taking a moralistic stance on trade, but if we did so there would be a lot of harsh realities to face and very few countries we could actually trade with.