Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[The Bread Guy]

... NDP needs a strong leader & party ...

Bit of an add-on, but THAT is also what many in the commentariat (of all colours) are saying will help maintain reasonable Team Blue results, too.

... canadians only care about fighting Trump ...

Well, if you believe Angus Reid, a lot of folks who say they voted Blue blame Trump for PP & Co. losing the federal election, so YMMV.

 

[brihard]

CPC support remained relatively equal, while the LPC only won because the socialists moved over after the collapse of the NDP. Canada is quickly becoming a two party system like the US, however it's unknown if the Liberals will go further left of the Democrats. NDP needs a strong leader because I don't think elbows up support will die too quickly, canadians only care about fighting Trump, which means doing nothing and wearing overpriced t-shirts and making tiktoks.

That’s an oversimplification. The NDP support did not all go LPC, not by a long shot. CPC picked up several former NDP seats; there’s some overlap in appeal to blue collar workers that those two parties compete over.

NDP lost some support to LPC.
NDP lost some support to CPC.
CPC lost some support to LPC.

The CPC holding steady was the product of both an outflow of some support to LPC, balanced by inflow of support from the collapsed NDP.

A resurgent NDP would come at the expense of both, but CPC would still need to claw back some of the lost swing vote who voted red this election. And it continues to appear that Poilievre specifically is part of that problem.

 

[Halifax Tar]

CPC support remained relatively equal, while the LPC only won because the socialists moved over after the collapse of the NDP. Canada is quickly becoming a two party system like the US, however it's unknown if the Liberals will go further left of the Democrats. NDP needs a strong leader because I don't think elbows up support will die too quickly, canadians only care about fighting Trump, which means doing nothing and wearing overpriced t-shirts and making tiktoks.

I had heard recently that PMMC wants to call another election prior to the American mid-terms.

Which makes sense. He is polling high and he needs DJT to keep Canadians scared. And I would surmise that DJT wont do well in the upcoming midterms.

 

[ArmyRick]

I had heard recently that PMMC wants to call another election prior to the American mid-terms.

Which makes sense. He is polling high and he needs DJT to keep Canadians scared. And I would surmise that DJT wont do well in the upcoming midterms.

I heard that this morning one of the news snippets, damn me if I could remember which one.

Time to reveal a dirty Armyrick secret. I spend 2-3 hours everyday looking after livestock. I put the various commentators on my phone and listen to them because the conversation with sheep or cattle gets boring really fast. That includes Moose on the Loose, Northern Perspective, CBC (yup, I still listen to Davey Cochrane), CTV, Juno News sometimes, Toronto Sun, I think its CPAC (the one that just records in parliament and committee and has ZERO commentary).

Today and tomorrow, I shovelling manure out of the sheep barn (and possibly here too, lets see). I usually end up listening to damn near everything podcast, news clips, sometimes committee hearings, etc.

One thing I can say, is I hear all three sides of the argument (Left, center and right). Does it mean I am all knowing? Hello no, far from it. I am biased based upon my my own experiences and how my life goes (as a veteran, farmer and a businessman)

 

[Brad Sallows]

There should be no such a thing as unpaid work in any profession.

Just reapportion the annual compensation over the time actually spent working.

 

[Kirkhill]

I had heard recently that PMMC wants to call another election prior to the American mid-terms.

Which makes sense. He is polling high and he needs DJT to keep Canadians scared. And I would surmise that DJT wont do well in the upcoming midterms.

I thought that was why salaries existed?

You get engaged by the year, not by the task or hour.

Edit: sorry for the wrong link.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I thought that was why salaries existed?

You get engaged by the year, not by the task or hour.

Edit: sorry for the wrong link.

The contract with the flight attendants (and it sounds like pilots as well) appears to pay by the hour, so it makes sense that at least part of the conflict is over when the meter starts running.

 

[Eaglelord17]

CPC support remained relatively equal, while the LPC only won because the socialists moved over after the collapse of the NDP. Canada is quickly becoming a two party system like the US, however it's unknown if the Liberals will go further left of the Democrats. NDP needs a strong leader because I don't think elbows up support will die too quickly, canadians only care about fighting Trump, which means doing nothing and wearing overpriced t-shirts and making tiktoks.

The Conservative platform isn’t that far off from the Democrats. It is 100% closer to the Democrats than the Republicans.

We don’t have a political party close to the Republicans currently (maybe the PPC). All our parties are pro free trade, pro choice, support some level of gun control (the level varies), etc.

Realistically Carney is governing pretty close to how I imagine PP would be governing with the exception of a few social issues (firearms being the main one).

I am curious as to what you think Canadians should do about Trump. Time is currently on our side (waiting for the courts to decide if his tariffs are legal or not). Making hasty deals when we could be giving up stuff for nothing isn’t in our best interest.

 

[Quirky]

I am curious as to what you think Canadians should do about Trump.

Politically or a personal level?

If people have that much hatred towards trump and americans, they can buy ABA (Anything But American) to get that dopamine hit to feel like they're doing something on an individual level. We've already seen a decline in US travel, but that's likely because Canadians are broke and the dollar is weak more than going elbows up. Realistically, it's somewhere in the middle. Politically you can't do much, even though Carney was seen as the golden child to deal with Trump due to his business background. In reality it wouldn't matter if PP was PM, however Carney's problem is that he's too much like Trudeau and steering the ship in the same direction, which canadians largely ignored as the media focused on problems down south. Other than removing the consumer carbon tax (thanks to PPs pressure), we are still in the same mess pre-election and things aren't improving. Goldfish have better memories than the people who vote LPC, however you still get the government you deserve.

 

[Rifleman62]

ArmyRick, I am curious, when shoveling manure, what is your go to station: CBC, Global or CTV?

 

[daftandbarmy]

An appalling unemployment rate, which might just come back to bite them...


Unemployment among young men reached 22.1% this May, the highest level in over a decade, and its political impact could be significant.

Young men already lean more Conservative, and worsening job prospects risk deepening their frustration with the status quo and fueling support for Pierre Poilievre’s promise of disruption.

For the Carney government, this presents a major challenge: appearing out of touch with a generation that feels excluded from work, housing, and stability.

Unless the Liberals can demonstrate credible solutions to create pathways into full-time jobs, they risk ceding an entire demographic to the Conservatives in future elections.

#cdnpoli #labourmarket #youth #youthunemployment #youngmen | 📊 David Coletto 🌎

Unemployment among young men reached 22.1% this May, the highest level in over a decade, and its political impact could be significant. Young men already lean more Conservative, and worsening job prospects risk deepening their frustration with the status quo and fuelling support for Pierre...

www.linkedin.com

 

[YZT580]

An appalling unemployment rate, which might just come back to bite them...


Unemployment among young men reached 22.1% this May, the highest level in over a decade, and its political impact could be significant.

Young men already lean more Conservative, and worsening job prospects risk deepening their frustration with the status quo and fueling support for Pierre Poilievre’s promise of disruption.

For the Carney government, this presents a major challenge: appearing out of touch with a generation that feels excluded from work, housing, and stability.

Unless the Liberals can demonstrate credible solutions to create pathways into full-time jobs, they risk ceding an entire demographic to the Conservatives in future elections.

#cdnpoli #labourmarket #youth #youthunemployment #youngmen | 📊 David Coletto 🌎

Unemployment among young men reached 22.1% this May, the highest level in over a decade, and its political impact could be significant. Young men already lean more Conservative, and worsening job prospects risk deepening their frustration with the status quo and fuelling support for Pierre...

www.linkedin.com

Don't you think that this is a major reason for the massive influx of immigrants; legal, illegal who never seem to be kicked out, short term who never leave, etc. Many of these will vote liberal; counter-balancing the young men's vote. Also, count the number of Palestinians and other ethic Arab groups and then guess at why Carney has come out 4 square against Israel. They are planning for 2028 and a second or third generation Canadian doesn't figure into their calculations

 

[mariomike]

Don't you think that this is a major reason for the massive influx of immigrants; legal, illegal who never seem to be kicked out, short term who never leave, etc.

For reference to the discussion regarding legal immigration,

Older Canadians want fewer legal immigrants to relocate to Canada, poll finds​

Older Canadians want fewer legal immigrants to relocate to Canada, poll finds | Globalnews.ca

43 per cent of Canadians believe immigration is having a mostly positive effect in the country, which is up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2024.

globalnews.ca

Immigration in Canada - August 14, 2025

From what you have seen, read or heard, do you think the number of legal immigrants who are allowed to relocate in Canada should increase, remain the same, or decrease?

Decrease

18 - 34 30%

35 - 54 40%

55 + 51%

 

[The Bread Guy]

Interesting position on this one ...

Canada absent in multi-nation call to protect Gaza journalists, allow foreign media

OTTAWA - Canada has taken the rare step of not signing onto a multi-country statement that demands Israel stop banning foreign journalists from entering Gaza and that local journalists be

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

 

[CBH99]

Don't you think that this is a major reason for the massive influx of immigrants; legal, illegal who never seem to be kicked out, short term who never leave, etc. Many of these will vote liberal; counter-balancing the young men's vote. Also, count the number of Palestinians and other ethic Arab groups and then guess at why Carney has come out 4 square against Israel. They are planning for 2028 and a second or third generation Canadian doesn't figure into their calculations

At this point, the way I figure, is those that will see it are already seeing it & those who can't see it by now probably never will...


Mods feel free to move this to whatever thread you like.

I put it here because for a government that keeps saying they will prioritize Canadian companies, reduce hurdles & red tape, and get the economy moving again - then they get cleared to send almost $200M to the US for vehicles that we could have easily sourced from Roshel instead...

(I was also under the impression that the JTVL had been cancelled for some reason?)


Canada cleared to buy $160m in JLTVs from the U.S. Canada cleared to buy $160m in JLTVs from the U.S.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Bit of a tight rope to walk for any government of any colour.

We're SO tied to the U.S. economy and military that there's no "switch" to cut them off to zero, it takes time (years, not weeks or months) to build up new markets elsewhere (which'll never be able to replace all of the U.S. market), so checking every week saying, "are we there yet?" can become a partisan exercise for either side: "WTF?!?!? Nothing's happening 77 days in!" vs. "Hey, these things take time."

And a lot of critics of the government on trade also seem keen on seeing continued ties with the U.S. and increased defence spending, so how do you balance that against having to look elsewhere for stuff?

Same with any government transition: the same people who attack party x for "why the ever-loving Christ have they not done anything yet after x months in?!?" are often the same people who support party y in the same position, saying "hey, it takes time to learn the ropes for a new PM, especially after z f@!#$%^&*(ed it up as royally as they did beforehand." All in the eye of the beholder ...

 

[Halifax Tar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1958868818849157521

Ill be interested to see a trend develops or if this is just an outlier.

 

[Czech_pivo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1958868818849157521

Ill be interested to see a trend develops or if this is just an outlier.

Majority of voters in Ontario still don’t like/want PP according to a poll that I saw yesterday.
Until that changes its status quo.
Also with only 68% of Conservatives currently approving of PP as leader that’s not a ringing endorsement for his future.
Lastly, as long as Ford continues to publicly back, swoon over really, Carney, PP will continue to have an uphill battle in Ontario.

 

[ArmyRick]

Majority of voters in Ontario still don’t like/want PP according to a poll that I saw yesterday.
Until that changes its status quo.
Also with only 68% of Conservatives currently approving of PP as leader that’s not a ringing endorsement for his future.
Lastly, as long as Ford continues to publicly back, swoon over really, Carney, PP will continue to have an uphill battle in Ontario.

If Quebec loses faith in Carney, then the Bloc will get stronger again. At last election it was 43% Liberals and 41% Conservatives if you send 3-5% to the Bloc, game over Liberals.

Also lets re-phrase that. Large URBAN Ontario cities don't like Poilievre. They don't like anyone federal Conservative. Desperation and hearing the same old tune "Trump is bad and we blame him for everything" will get as tiresome as "Harper is bad and we blame him for everything"

 

[ArmyRick]

Factor in what will the new (or old on repeat?) NDP look like? They have a chance to steal back Ontario Left votes.

And the over 65+ crowd, which was the only cohort nationally by numbers that majority of them voted (or were duped?) into Carney, are getting older and to say it politely, thinning out.

Carney does not have the personal charm Trudeau had (and even that wore thin after a decade), he does not do well (or appear confident) at his press conferences and that is going to wear thin on Canadian swing voters, combined with Pierre hammering him (BTW, don't be delusional, unless something drastic happens, Pierre getting through his CPC leadership review).

My thoughts on this can be summed up the Liberal Carney Catle was built on loose sand and the foundation will erode quickly.

Cue the Poilievre haters/Liberal defenders....