Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Halifax Tar]

I had to argue with a guy at work as to why we couldn’t make the subs in house. The general public has this mythos as to our countries capabilities and capacities which do not align with reality on many things (such as the state of our military and industry).

This is a big Canadian problem. Our populace have over estimated our capabilities and place in the world.

 

[Remius]

So why is Carney blowing the big lead he had on Pierre in June? Ohhhh, reality sets in.

What metric are you using exactly?

According to 338 he is well within the margin of error and is sitting pretty much where he was.

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

 

[ArmyRick]

What metric are you using exactly?

According to 338 he is well within the margin of error and is sitting pretty much where he was.

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

They had a big lead, take a look at what you posted. Some pollsters even said, you start declining in the polls, you can cross the line very easily into falling behind from leading.

Nick Nanos has pegged the CPC as leading by two points, that is telling.

Parliament is not going very well for the LPC, the loss of several seasoned MPs, poor responses to questions in QP (This will bring people back to the Trudeau era) and very slow movement on burning issues. I have hgeard a few pollsters say in interviews, that the "Trump" scare factor is no longer there and Mark Carney's honeymoon is evaporating much faster that Trudeau did.

 

[brihard]

So why is Carney blowing the big lead he had on Pierre in June? Ohhhh, reality sets in.

I’m not convinced that lead has evaporated or even substantially dropped, if we’re using public polling as a measure. Accounting for outliers to either side, on the balance the LPC still seem to have a comfortable lead: https://338canada.com/polls.htm

The question of Carney vs LPC, and Poilievre vs CPC is also fair game. Poilievre personally seems to co to use to underperform his party more broadly in opinion polling, as has been discussed here recently.

There was a good episode of The Line this week where Matt Gurney was interviewing P.J. Fournier from 338 Canada on exactly this, and the discussion at that time did reflect the present polling averages. Part of the discussion was how ‘nothing happens over summer’ and Canadians largely tune out, so gauging public opinion meaningful may need to wait til a couple weeks after Parliament resumes. Episode here: On The Line: As Carney makes moves, he and Poilievre both face problems

 

[ArmyRick]

I’m not convinced that lead has evaporated or even substantially dropped, if we’re using public polling as a measure. Accounting for outliers to either side, on the balance the LPC still seem to have a comfortable lead: https://338canada.com/polls.htm

The question of Carney vs LPC, and Poilievre vs CPC is also fair game. Poilievre personally seems to co to use to underperform his party more broadly in opinion polling, as has been discussed here recently.

There was a good episode of The Line this week where Matt Gurney was interviewing P.J. Fournier from 338 Canada on exactly this, and the discussion at that time did reflect the present polling averages. Part of the discussion was how ‘nothing happens over summer’ and Canadians largely tune out, so gauging public opinion meaningful may need to wait til a couple weeks after Parliament resumes. Episode here: On The Line: As Carney makes moves, he and Poilievre both face problems

Have you watched or listened to the start of parliament this fall? It ain't going well for the LPC. Weak or evasive answers erode the LPC stance. Canadians want answers and Liberals ain't providing them

 

[brihard]

Have you watched or listened to the start of parliament this fall? It ain't going well for the LPC. Weak or evasive answers erode the LPC stance. Canadians want answers and Liberals ain't providing them

I’m only answering what you actually said. Remius posted 338 to challenge your claim about blowing the lead, you seem to have accepted that as a valid polling source. You said PMMC is ‘blowing the big lead he had in June’, but numbers don’t appear to show that. His lead actually expanded from a five point lead at the end of June into July, peaking early August with an average eight point lead, and now it’s shrunk back to match the five point advantage he had at end June.

The other things you said are all valid to discuss and debate; they just aren’t what I was actually responding to. My comment was limited to trends in the potential voter sentiment based on polling aggregates.

 

[Remius]

They had a big lead, take a look at what you posted.

I did. According to 338 the LPC wins a majority if an election were held today.

Some pollsters even said, you start declining in the polls, you can cross the line very easily into falling behind from leading.

True. And generally after elections polls can drop.

Nick Nanos has pegged the CPC as leading by two points, that is telling.

It’s an outlier. It can be a bellwether yes but given where we are time wise I’m not sure it’s cause for panic or in your case rejoicing.

Parliament is not going very well for the LPC, the loss of several seasoned MPs,

I don’t know about you but with the appointments they are getting and the fact that those are safe seats indicates to me that this was engineered.

poor responses to questions in QP (This will bring people back to the Trudeau era) and very slow movement on burning issues.

Right. His inexperience certain shows. Not sure that matters.

I have hgeard a few pollsters say in interviews, that the "Trump" scare factor is no longer there and Mark Carney's honeymoon is evaporating much faster that Trudeau did.

Possibly. Ask yourself why the scare factor is not there.

Honeymoons are fickle but they don’t last forever but that doesn’t mean that disaster is imminent.

 

[brihard]

Nick Nanos has pegged the CPC as leading by two points, that is telling.

Do you have the one handy? I can’t find it. Nanos is on a weekly polling cycle for federal voter intentions and their data as posted on 338 doesn’t support your claim. Possible there’s a mid-cycle poll out that’s not on 338 that says something different?

 

[Eaglelord17]

the loss of several seasoned MPs,

This isn’t a bad thing for the Liberals. If anything it means they are cleaning out some of the trash from the previous LPC government.

Carney isn’t just battling in parliament, trade, etc. he is also battling the LPC and trying to make it into something competent. That is a uphill battle but I think he is making progress.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Mmmm part of me wants to watch it all burn.

Guy Fawkes night is coming up in under 2 months, suggest that you go to a good one or better yet, arrange for your own and get this out of your system lol.

 

[Czech_pivo]

They had a big lead, take a look at what you posted. Some pollsters even said, you start declining in the polls, you can cross the line very easily into falling behind from leading.

Nick Nanos has pegged the CPC as leading by two points, that is telling.

Parliament is not going very well for the LPC, the loss of several seasoned MPs, poor responses to questions in QP (This will bring people back to the Trudeau era) and very slow movement on burning issues. I have hgeard a few pollsters say in interviews, that the "Trump" scare factor is no longer there and Mark Carney's honeymoon is evaporating much faster that Trudeau did.

Parliament has been sitting for 4 days.

The only people who have watched the 4 days that Parliament has sat so far are political junkies who wouldn't change their voting patterns even if you started chopping off their digits one joint at a time. The vast majority of ordinary Canadians have been focused on their kids successfully integrating into their new classes at school and back into the routine of getting kids up and out the door before 8am 5 days of the week.

I believe that you're in the agricultural field now, do you look at your crop 4 days after putting seeds in the ground and wonder why they haven't sprouted yet? Do you look at a 4 day old calf and wonder why its not ready to go to market yet?

Did I mention that Parliament has been sitting for 4 days?

 

[IKnowNothing]

What I, and others, have said is that their loss of the election had as much, maybe more to do with "events" as it did with their mistakes.

Of course. Because the "50%, maybe 50+1" blame attribution to "something else" is the convenient threshold that excuses the leadership failure and avoids any nasty introspection about vehement support for it

 

[IKnowNothing]

So why is Carney blowing the big lead he had on Pierre in June?

Having a +7 soften to a +5 while actually being responsible for governing and taking hits in the process isn't quite the same as having a +24 turn into a -7 because your opponent finally did what you've been yelling at them to do for two years.

 

[ArmyRick]

If anything it means they are cleaning out some of the trash from the previous LPC government.

This was something I had actually hoped he was going to do. Guilbeault was at the top of my list of MPs I wanted him to ditch.

 

[ArmyRick]

Parliament has been sitting for 4 days.

The only people who have watched the 4 days that Parliament has sat so far are political junkies who wouldn't change their voting patterns even if you started chopping off their digits one joint at a time. The vast majority of ordinary Canadians have been focused on their kids successfully integrating into their new classes at school and back into the routine of getting kids up and out the door before 8am 5 days of the week.

I believe that you're in the agricultural field now, do you look at your crop 4 days after putting seeds in the ground and wonder why they haven't sprouted yet? Do you look at a 4 day old calf and wonder why its not ready to go to market yet?

Did I mention that Parliament has been sitting for 4 days?

I will come back to you in November or December. And if the trend continues, I hope you have an excuse ready for it.

They have had all summer to set the conditions for their own success.

The fact they are fumbling questions right out of the gate, is not a promising look.

When I plant an oat or barley crop, you damn well start checking around 4-6 days to watch for emergence. Otherwise, you gotta react imediately (give it another 4-6 days and then re-plan on a failed crop). Nice try.

 

[IKnowNothing]

When I plant an oat or barley crop, you damn well start checking around 4-6 days to watch for emergence. Otherwise, you gotta react imediately (give it another 4-6 days and then re-plan on a failed crop). Nice try.

The key word is emergence- you're not expecting a mature crop.

 

[ArmyRick]

your opponent finally did what you've been yelling at them to do for two years.

-Zero-ing the carbon tax was smart political move.
-You still think Trump wasn't a major factor? I think you had better wake up because even pro liberal political pundits said it was Trump that was the election question

 

[Altair]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-big-step-back-from-us-data-1.7637651

Let me preface this by saying I'm never been so proud to be a Canadian.

Key takeaways

Travel to the USA-Down 34 percent. 8th consecutive month of declines. Pretty much at covid levels right now.

Trade- Exports to the USA down 5 percent. Exports to UK up...26 percent! The UK is now our second biggest export market. Trade to Central and South America up 13 percent

Shopping- Sales of Canadian authored book up 25 percent. Sales of American food products down 15-20 percent, some categories down as much as 50 percent.

Culture- CBC reports 34 percent increase on people watching their streaming service and Canadian content. Juno awards viewership surged 400 percent.

All in all, counter tariffs or no counter tariffs, Canadians are ditching the USA. On trade, the pivot has already started away from the USA.

 

[Altair]

-Zero-ing the carbon tax was smart political move.
-You still think Trump wasn't a major factor? I think you had better wake up because even pro liberal political pundits said it was Trump that was the election question

If all the CPC learned from the last election was that Trump screwed them, they will be in prime position to lose the next election.

 

[ArmyRick]

The key word is emergence- you're not expecting a mature crop.

Key point, and maybe stop trying to wiggle your way oput on this, is you MONITOR and ACT for early signs of failure. In crop production and politics. Again, nice try.