Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[brihard]

I suspect the LPC may be asking them to hold their fire - let PP win the leadership review, then bail to immediately undermine him.

Strategically that would make sense for LPC. It would also give any such floor crossers the ability to say “we wanted our party to recognize and act on the need for a change in direction, we gave them every opportunity to, but regrettably they’ve stayed a course that just isn’t working for the party or for Canadians blah blah blah…” and have some top cover of ‘we tried’.

The percentage by which Poilievre wins his review will be interesting.

 

[dapaterson]

Strategically that would make sense for LPC. It would also give any such floor crossers the ability to say “we wanted our party to recognize and act on the need for a change in direction, we gave them every opportunity to, but regrettably they’ve stayed a course that just isn’t working for the party or for Canadians blah blah blah…” and have some top cover of ‘we tried’.

The percentage by which Poilievre wins his review will be interesting.

The Clark Threshold is two thirds.

 

[Haggis]

The percentage by which Poilievre wins his review will be interesting.

If he were to retain the leadership with a strong percentage, it would show to me that the CPC haven't learned anything from the last two elections and are not serious about forming a government. To me, at least, he's beyond his best before date.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

If he were to retain the leadership with a strong percentage, it would show to me that the CPC haven't learned anything from the last two elections and are not serious about forming a government. To me, at least, he's beyond his best before date.

It would be nice (and way better for the country) to have a viable alternative, both immediately in terms of a more effective Opposition, and longer term come the next election.

 

[brihard]

If he were to retain the leadership with a strong percentage, it would show to me that the CPC haven't learned anything from the last two elections and are not serious about forming a government. To me, at least, he's beyond his best before date.

And that may be exactly the rationale a couple more would use to cross.

It would be nice (and way better for the country) to have a viable alternative, both immediately in terms of a more effective Opposition, and longer term come the next election.

100%. I want a strong opposition with a viable leadership team and compelling and credible policies.

 

[MilEME09]

And that may be exactly the rationale a couple more would use to cross.



100%. I want a strong opposition with a viable leadership team and compelling and credible policies.

Judging by Erin O'toole's Twitter, there seems to be a sizable centrist group still in the party, and the public attacks by other CPC members seemed to have been kicked in the butt. However as pointed out already here, they may wait until after the leadership review, its anyone's guess if we see some cross the floor or even the nuclear option of a blue divorce and a bunch of CPC MPs seperate off to reform the PC party. Thus keeping the government in a slim minority but giving them selves more power and flexibility.

 

[lenaitch]

The next rule would have the whip and the party be able to control MPs votes or kick them out of caucus forcing them into a bi election.

But being kicked out of caucus does not trigger a byelection. They simply sit as independent.

 

[brihard]

But being kicked out of caucus does not trigger a byelection. They simply sit as independent.

No, not at present. I believe he’s speaking hypothetically in a case where a rule gets put in whereby getting kicked out of caucus results in a by-election, to close the “don’t-quit-but-vote-with-the-other-guy” loophole. He’s pointing out why that approach would be badly flawed.

 

[CBH99]

Yup. And China could physically isolate Taiwan in a way that Russia could not isolate Ukraine.

Taiwan would need to absolutely prevent a succesful landing in the first place. Once China got a secure beachhead or airhead that they could hold, that’s the ball game. China would probably be willing to spend its young men profligately to achieve that lodgement. Would the US go to war with China to stop it?

Respectfully disagree with your last point, re China would probably be willing to spend it's young men profligately

...


China has some massive population problems, and they know it.

- Recent estimates have put the Chinese population at roughly 400 million people less than what they thought they had...

(That's more people than Canada & the USA combined!)


- With the longstanding one child policy replacing 2 parents with only 1 offspring, the state aimed to cut it's population in half.

That's population collapse Number 1...


- But because culturally they tended to favour boys, their population demographics are heavily skewed in favour of men.

(Which means a lot of those men won't ever marry or have kids, effectively ending the lineage of countless families.)

This is population collapse Number 2...




China is well aware of this pending population reduction, when the 2 parents both die & are replaced by only 1 child. They are well aware of it because this was the whole point of the policy in the first place.

They NEED those 'children' to make their society function & to take care of the older generation as it ages & passes on...

They DO NOT NEED some unnecessary war that will inevitably kill, at the bare minimum, tens of thousands of the very young people they know they will NEED as time goes on.


So I don't think China will just send human waves to die willy nilly. They have enough challenges incoming as it is.

...

I also think China is well aware of the effect their informational warfare campaign has had & is having on the general Taiwanese population - young people inparticular.

I think while patriotism is probably fairly strong among the general public, Taiwanese leadership should absolutely factor in the very tangible effects of the PLA's information efforts.

At the rate their going, I think China could quite possibly reunite with the island without ever firing a shot. China plays the long game, and their desire to reunite the island may come to fruition with the next generation of Taiwanese being much more open to reconciliation.


Between a population that's been bombarded with subtle yet impactful propoganda from a young age + Chinese intelligence officers undoubtedly floating around key parts of the Taiwanese government and military - I think it's a very real possibility that Taiwan will fold in the end due to soft power, information warfare, and subversion from within.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Strategically that would make sense for LPC. It would also give any such floor crossers the ability to say “we wanted our party to recognize and act on the need for a change in direction, we gave them every opportunity to, but regrettably they’ve stayed a course that just isn’t working for the party or for Canadians blah blah blah…” and have some top cover of ‘we tried’.

The percentage by which Poilievre wins his review will be interesting.

Now that would be quite Machiavellian.

 

[CBH99]

No, not at present. I believe he’s speaking hypothetically in a case where a rule gets put in whereby getting kicked out of caucus results in a by-election, to close the “don’t-quit-but-vote-with-the-other-guy” loophole. He’s pointing out why that approach would be badly flawed.

Like I said guys, I'm no expert in the legalities of federal politics.

Maybe my suggestion causes more problems & fixes none If so, I'm happy to toss it out.

If nothing else, even if my suggestion has a million problems with it & turns out to be a bad or useless idea - hopefully it can be learned from in that aspect also

...

At the end of the day, I'm just tired of having a government that is elected by us & funded by us - but doesn't seem to listen to us or care about what the people want.

 

[brihard]

Respectfully disagree with your last point, re China would probably be willing to spend it's young men profligately

...


China has some massive population problems, and they know it.

- Recent estimates have put the Chinese population at roughly 400 million people less than what they thought they had...

(That's more people than Canada & the USA combined!)


- With the longstanding one child policy replacing 2 parents with only 1 offspring, the state aimed to cut it's population in half.

That's population collapse Number 1...


- But because culturally they tended to favour boys, their population demographics are heavily skewed in favour of men.

(Which means a lot of those men won't ever marry or have kids, effectively ending the lineage of countless families.)

This is population collapse Number 2...




China is well aware of this pending population reduction, when the 2 parents both die & are replaced by only 1 child. They are well aware of it because this was the whole point of the policy in the first place.

They NEED those 'children' to make their society function & to take care of the older generation as it ages & passes on...

They DO NOT NEED some unnecessary war that will inevitably kill, at the bare minimum, tens of thousands of the very young people they know they will NEED as time goes on.


So I don't think China will just send human waves to die willy nilly. They have enough challenges incoming as it is.

...

I also think China is well aware of the effect their informational warfare campaign has had & is having on the general Taiwanese population - young people inparticular.

I think while patriotism is probably fairly strong among the general public, Taiwanese leadership should absolutely factor in the very tangible effects of the PLA's information efforts.

At the rate their going, I think China could quite possibly reunite with the island without ever firing a shot. China plays the long game, and their desire to reunite the island may come to fruition with the next generation of Taiwanese being much more open to reconciliation.


Between a population that's been bombarded with subtle yet impactful propoganda from a young age + Chinese intelligence officers undoubtedly floating around key parts of the Taiwanese government and military - I think it's a very real possibility that Taiwan will fold in the end due to soft power, information warfare, and subversion from within.

China’s shortage is young women, not young men. They have literally a few million more military age males than women of child bearing age… I don’t think demographics would keep them out of a fight for fear of the casualties.

 

[Eaglelord17]

China’s shortage is young women, not young men. They have literally a few million more military age males than women of child bearing age… I don’t think demographics would keep them out of a fight for fear of the casualties.

This is my exact thoughts, if anything it encourages it as otherwise your going to be left with a bunch of disillusioned young men who will want someone/thing to blame for there problems.

 

[Czech_pivo]

China’s shortage is young women, not young men. They have literally a few million more military age males than women of child bearing age… I don’t think demographics would keep them out of a fight for fear of the casualties.

ChatGPT says that China currently has between 25-30 MILLION more men than women.
It also says that China may have between 6-800 million people 50yrs from now.

 

[YZT580]

This is my exact thoughts, if anything it encourages it as otherwise your going to be left with a bunch of disillusioned young men who will want someone/thing to blame for there problems.

sounds like a medieval argument re: second sons going to the crusades.

 

[Czech_pivo]

sounds like a medieval argument re: second sons going to the crusades.

Or being shipped off to Canada….

 

[McG]

The comparisons here look positive for Canada.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2007051968166920365

 

[Czech_pivo]

The comparisons here look positive for Canada.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2007051968166920365

Canada and Australia - both resource based economies going into an era where raw resources will matter.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Judging by Erin O'toole's Twitter, there seems to be a sizable centrist group still in the party, and the public attacks by other CPC members seemed to have been kicked in the butt.

It's dwindling on the caucus front though- looking at Charest/Brown endorsements from 2022 there's been a lot of attrition, and of those remaining there are few that haven't kissed PP's ring and joined the chorus line.

Edited add for my neck of the woods :

• Chong sat out endorsements in 2020 and 2022- his PC politics speak for themselves and he hasn't vocally embraced the party line, but he's taken a Shadow Cabinet position
• John Nater was an up and comer under O'Toole and not only endorsed Charest but was a signatory on the "we need you" letter
• Ruff sat out the 2022 race but was a pretty staunch O'Toole guy and hasn't debased himself yet