Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Humphrey Bogart]

It's not quite like that.

We all know that, in terms of shipping cost, expressed in ton per kilometer, shipping (by sea) is the cheapest, followed by rail, then trucking, and finally, air cargo as most expensive.

So here is an example of the situation we are talking about: Hardware chain BMR (the one I work for ) in Quebec has the contract to provide about 75% of construction materials needs for the Nunavik annual resupply. We get the orders in, and then we know the ships schedules (which one to where and when). We assemble the products at our Chambly store, from our various suppliers, most of which are in the greater Montreal area, but can be as far as Toronto and Chicoutimi, so that all can be packed and crated a few days before the ship's departure. We can accommodate changes to the orders up to 48 hours before departure. When the shipping time comes, our own truck deliver the crates to the port, in 40 to 45 minutes. They often encounter the trucks from Vicwest or Acier Picard delivering the steel construction beams and siding/roofing, both of which produce them at their facilities in Sorel - 1 hour 15 minutes from the port. Most of the other products needed for the resupply be they food or everyday items are in the same situation.

You couldn't do that from Churchill. A lot of that stuff would first have to find its way to Winnipeg (that part is not that hard - just a little more expensive because of the shipping cost by rail/truck over distance) and then sent by train to Churchill. That last part is not only extra cost, but creates a potential bottleneck (single track if something happens) and a need for much longer lead times than "48 hours before shipping" as the cut off time.

It can be done, and IMHO, should be done to the extent possible, but we should be aware that it not a panacea for cheaper resupply of the Arctic.

You have the contract now, given our existing infrastructure constraints . With alternative routing options, someone (or some group) with some entrepreneurial spirit may start their own manufacturing operation to steal that from you.

I am a professional railroader btw, and also have quite a bit of experience dealing with multimodal shipping and bulk commodities. I regularly deal with maritime schedules and manage relationships with a number of different customers.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

All of that is true.

How much is 20% of Canada's landmass, control of Hudson Bay and the Northwest Passage and the associated Economic Exclusion Zones and Continental Shelves wort to you?

Or are we going to fixate on keeping 37,000 locals happy when we could be sending 37,000 southerners north to defend our claim?

As I keep saying the HBC did the job the locals want done for better than 300 years.

Your key word is "incentive".

Is there an incentive for our government to claim jurisdiction in the north?
Is there an incentive for individual southerners to move north, even if it is just temporarily.

RCMP G (NT), M (YK) and V (NU) divisions maintain about 450 personnel in the North. The CCG about another. Both have a permanent presence in Iqaluit.

There seem to be adequate incentives for some people.

If the $$$ is right, I'll be on a plane tomorrow. Amazing how all these private enterprises can find people to go out in the bush and do work for fair pay but the crown can't seem to get it done.

 

[QV]

If the $$$ is right, I'll be on a plane tomorrow. Amazing how all these private enterprises can find people to go out in the bush and do work for fair pay but the crown can't seem to get it done.

The crown wants you to work for as little pay as possible.

 

[Blackadder1916]

As I keep saying the HBC did the job the locals want done for better than 300 years.

Actually, the HBC did the job that the HBC wanted done locally even if it meant that the locals were sometimes exploited.

 

[Kirkhill]

Actually, the HBC did the job that the HBC wanted done locally even if it meant that the locals were sometimes exploited.

Of course they were exploited. Just like the Cree exploited the Dene and opposed the HBC setting up inland trading posts.

At least the HBC was only in the commercial exploitation game. They bought what was being sold. They sold what was being bought.

 

[MilEME09]

Harper with the zinger!

https://twitter.com/x/status/2018445212834484294

Always enjoy hearing Harper speak, also glad Carney has him as an advisor.

 

[YZT580]

The crown wants you to work for as little pay as possible.

Agree and disagree at the same time. The crown would dearly like to be able to award greater benefits to those it sends into remote locations. And they used to provide benefits to incentivize people to relocate. Unfortunately unions got in the way, demanding equal benefits for anyone with the same job title. As a for instance, Transport Canada personnel working at Toronto Airport used to be able to claim mileage for weekend work because public transit did not service the air side buildings. That died when clerks on the Terminal side complained that they were discriminated against because they didn't qualify even though they may have lived in the same area. Union grieved and one and all mileage claims were suspended. (1970 or thereabouts) Many organisations apart from government suffer from the same problems between union and management. So yes, the crown keeps the strings pulled tight on the purse but we do sometimes contribute to our own misfortunes.

 

[lenaitch]

Quite right DP. But someone mentioned the US forces in Alaska earlier. Did you know that their posting to Fort Wainwright is considered a "foreign posting" in their system, with all the extra perks that come with it?

Maybe we need to do the same for our forces North of 60.

It might be a good idea, but it might have limited impact. Fairbanks is about 32000 population; Anchorage is about 290000. Churchill is 850. How big would it have to get to make it attractive to a family?

 

[dapaterson]

Quite right DP. But someone mentioned the US forces in Alaska earlier. Did you know that their posting to Fort Wainwright is considered a "foreign posting" in their system, with all the extra perks that come with it?

Maybe we need to do the same for our forces North of 60.

Are you familiar with the benefits already paid to CAF members in such locations?

 

[HavokFour]

Harper with the zinger!

https://twitter.com/x/status/2018445212834484294

Always enjoy hearing Harper speak, also glad Carney has him as an advisor.

More on that.

Former prime ministers Harper, Chrétien call for national unity to confront Donald Trump

Onetime leaders from different parties say the country can survive by sticking together

www.theglobeandmail.com

Archive

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Are you familiar with the benefits already paid to CAF members in such locations?

No. I am not.

 

[dapaterson]

No. I am not.

Chapter 11 – Isolated Post Instructions - Canada.ca

Chapter 11 Isolated Post Instructions

www.canada.ca

 

[brihard]

Chapter 11 – Isolated Post Instructions - Canada.ca

Chapter 11 Isolated Post Instructions

www.canada.ca

I was running the numbers on this yesterday. Churchill would be about 28,000 in IPGHD benefits for a member with dependents, and about 18,000 for a member without. Much of that ends up getting spent to cover the actual increased costs- though CAF would, I expect, establish government housing at such a port. Still, IPGHD isn’t simply some great big bonus, and it only goes so far to compensate for the suck of isolation. Churchill would be considerably more isolated in real terms than, say, Yellowknife or Whitehorse. Churchill, while not as isolated in absolute terms as Iqaluit, is less than 1/10 the population.

An enhanced port and a CAF facility in Churchill would represent a major increase in the population and infrastructure over what very little is there already. Housing would be a major challenge.

Make no mistake; Churchill would be an isolated and probably crappy posting, particularly for families. Maybe CAF should consider a ‘fly in/fly out’ rotational model for many of the hypothetical staff like a lot of the work camps or some of the remote RCMP posts do? Families could live where it makes sense to live, and every two weeks people rotate in and out. Bust your ass for two weeks, fly home to Winnipeg or Edmonton for two weeks off. Might even be cheaper than cost moves up there.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I was running the numbers on this yesterday. Churchill would be about 28,000 in IPGHD benefits for a member with dependents, and about 18,000 for a member without.

Net or gross ?

Make no mistake; Churchill would be an isolated and probably crappy posting, particularly for families. Maybe CAF should consider a ‘fly in/fly out’ rotational model for many of the hypothetical staff like a lot of the work camps or some of the remote RCMP posts do? Families could live where it makes sense to live, and every two weeks people rotate in and out. Bust your ass for two weeks, fly home to Winnipeg or Edmonton for two weeks off. Might even be cheaper than cost moves up there.

Solid compromise.

 

[brihard]

Net or gross ?

Gross. Net will vary depending on one’s own tax circumstances.

Solid compromise.

Yeah, I heard the Mounties were trying this for some of the less desirable postings you wouldn’t want to drag your family to. Worth exploring.

 

[dapaterson]

Any CAF expansion in the North will hit those issues of limited housing, and limited infrastructure (both physical and social) to absorb an influx of CAF members and their families.

Adding 200 CAF members to Gagetown would be relatively straightforward; the same in Iqaluit would be significantly more challenging.

 

[brihard]

Any CAF expansion in the North will hit those issues of limited housing, and limited infrastructure (both physical and social) to absorb an influx of CAF members and their families.

Adding 200 CAF members to Gagetown would be relatively straightforward; the same in Iqaluit would be significantly more challenging.

Fortunately Canada has an entire industrial services sector that’s pretty good and building and sustaining a few hundred people in austere camps (with decent quality of life) way more remote than any of the locations under discussion. If CAF is serious about projecting more presence into the subarctic or Arctic, sustainment and infrastructure can be contracted out on the way to permanence as CAF builds the necessary capacity.

 

[HavokFour]

Abacus for Jan 22-27, 2026

Vote Intention
Liberal: 43%
Conservative: 39%

Leader Impressions
Carney: +23
Poilievre: -6

Government Approval
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 31%

New Abacus Poll: Prime Minister Carney’s Standing Improves as Liberals Strengthen Ahead of Conservative Convention - Abacus Data

A new Abacus Data poll finds Mark Carney’s approval at a record high as Liberal support strengthens ahead of the Conservative convention.

abacusdata.ca

Interestingly one of the few demographics that Poilievre has a positive impression (30 to 44), Carney is practically keeping pace (9% vs 10%). AB, MB and SK are doing a ton of heavy lifting for him. Liberals also appear to have largely recovered for the 18-29 range.

Another for the chain, here's Mainstreet for Jan. 31-Feb. 2.

https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/66c8dfb086a015b3b519e988/6981568ca06972c45d09db75_Mainstreet_Canada_Jan_2026_Public.pdf

 

[NavyShooter]

Heads smarter than mine will argue the minutiae of this in more detail, however, observe the approximate drop dates that seem to correlate to election results....and the massive divergence between industrial investment between the two sides of the border.

This seems like the kind of thing that's tough to overcome....Canada was never really a major industrial powerhouse, we seemed to rely mostly on our natural resources, but losing industrial investment like this for a decade means that much of the equipment in use is probably a couple of technological generations behind making it even less productive.

One would hope that we'd have seen this climb or at least steady out since PMMC took charge, however, it seems not to be the case, and I suspect it'll continue to get worse for a while.

It would seem that Canada is not a good place to invest in manufacturing/industrial equipment, and hasn't been for...well...a long time.

 

[dapaterson]

Fortunately Canada has an entire industrial services sector that’s pretty good and building and sustaining a few hundred people in austere camps (with decent quality of life) way more remote than any of the locations under discussion. If CAF is serious about projecting more presence into the subarctic or Arctic, sustainment and infrastructure can be contracted out on the way to permanence as CAF builds the necessary capacity.

Best we can do is in-sourcing at three times the price and half the quality.