Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Cloud Cover]

Carney move to actually get a big energy project and ditch the deadweight in his party?

I think so.
And he’s going to ditch a lot of the social shaping BS as well, like gun control.

He’s got to be able to say to every leftie in his party- “if you don’t like what I’m doing, I’ll replace you with a Conservative”.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Carney move to actually get a big energy project and ditch the deadweight in his party?

Well, wouldn't be an interesting turn of events.

 

[brihard]

I wonder when she's calling the byelection. 3 months ago she was calling for those byelections for floor crossers. She's also closer to the PPC than LPC so why is Carney courting the fringe right of the CPC?

She won’t, of course… None of them mean it except as a partisan sound byte.

I suspect he’s made it clear he’ll give her a decent role. But stick to economic and infrastructure stuff and don’t become an anchor by dragging up social issues. Knowing that he has a three year run probably goes him more comfort there.

If, as others are speculating, he anticipates several more, that will also mean he’ll have room to fire people… And I think it’s known and understood that he will if necessary.

 

[MilEME09]

She won’t, of course… None of them mean it except as a partisan sound byte.

I suspect he’s made it clear he’ll give her a decent role. But stick to economic and infrastructure stuff and don’t become an anchor by dragging up social issues. Knowing that he has a three year run probably goes him more comfort there.

If, as others are speculating, he anticipates several more, that will also mean he’ll have room to fire people… And I think it’s known and understood that he will if necessary.

I suspect any more floor crossers he is courting are people he believes will actually bring benefit to the team, not just crossing to give him a majority. I anticipate a cabinet shuffle once the by-elections are done for his majority team

 

[brihard]

I suspect any more floor crossers he is courting are people he believes will actually bring benefit to the team, not just crossing to give him a majority. I anticipate a cabinet shuffle once the by-elections are done for his majority team

Agreed. Look to the CVs. Not that he’ll turn away an easy seat flip, but his headhunting is about experience, not just bums in seats.

 

[MilEME09]

grain of salt here but it wouldn't surprise me daggers would come out

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041967415181930907

 

[GR66]

Maybe PMMC should just cut out the middle man and all these floor crossings and invite the Conservatives to be junior partners in a coalition National Emergency government...

 

[HavokFour]

grain of salt here but it wouldn't surprise me daggers would come out

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041967415181930907

The ides of April doesn't really have the same ring to it.

Guess we'll see after Monday.

 

[brihard]

grain of salt here but it wouldn't surprise me daggers would come out

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041967415181930907

Wasn’t Slapinsky the one posting some uh… rather eyebrows-raising and clearly admiring AI pictures of Poilievre for months on end?

 

[HavokFour]

Wasn’t Slapinsky the one posting some uh… rather eyebrows-raising and clearly admiring AI pictures of Poilievre for months on end?

Appears to have had a change of opinion at some point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041916635322196437

Or at worst, he's grifting.

 

[Haggis]

I think so.
And he’s going to ditch a lot of the social shaping BS as well, like gun control.

Not as long as Nathalie is in his caucus.

 

[dapaterson]

Agreed. Look to the CVs. Not that he’ll turn away an easy seat flip, but his headhunting is about experience, not just bums in seats.

If I'm a "left of most of the CPC" MP in Alberta then I'm looking at jumping now to get an O&G portfolio - Gladu will otherwise get it.

 

[ArmyRick]

The character of the floor crosses directly reflects the integrity, accountability and transparency typical of the Liberals.

Media playing many of the MP Gladu clips from last year and this year, F-ing wow. Only a few days ago she harshly criticized the Liberals.

 

[mariomike]

Vitriol? Sure. Death/rape theats to the MP and/or their family? No, that’s not ‘FAFO’, that’s just crime.

It's been in the news in recent years,

Threats, harassment driving women out of politics, MPs warn​

Threats, harassment driving women out of politics, MPs warn

As longtime Liberal MP Pam Damoff prepares to leave politics when the next federal election is called she is wistful but open about what is driving her to step away from a career she has had for more than a decade.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Jarnhamar]

grain of salt here but it wouldn't surprise me daggers would come out

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041967415181930907

I just got off the phone with a political insider that says Conservative MPs are demanding Poilievre resign IMMEDIATELY.

They might as well jump ship. It's not like they're hired to represent other people.

 

[MilEME09]

They might as well jump ship. It's not like they're hired to represent other people.

now the star is jumping in on this

https://www.thestar.com/politics/up-to-40-conservative-mps-fear-pierre-poilievre-will-cost-them-their-seats-insiders-say/

 

[MilEME09]

What a weird day in politics

 

[brihard]

If I'm a "left of most of the CPC" MP in Alberta then I'm looking at jumping now to get an O&G portfolio - Gladu will otherwise get it.

I think the way PMMC looks at things, simply being Albertan may not count for much; it’ll depend on the depth of the CV. Gladu’s a petrochemical engineer and was head engineer for Suncor. That’s some serious oil patch credibility. An Alberta MP with a significant energy, infrastructure, or finance background? Good chance they could negotiate a decent role that they could take back to constituents to justify the flip.

Someone earlier mentioned potentially a small gaggle of MPs in B.C., presumably the sort of areas a pipeline may go through. I could similarly see crossers there pitching it to constituents as “we want this to happen and I want to work with the government to try to get the best local economic benefits”.

Eventful few weeks- Lori Idlout and Marilyn Gladu both defecting to join the liberals in quick succession. PM Carney’s definitely brought something different and distinct to the table.

The character of the floor crosses directly reflects the integrity, accountability and transparency typical of the Liberals.

Media playing many of the MP Gladu clips from last year and this year, F-ing wow. Only a few days ago she harshly criticized the Liberals.

It’s interesting seeing the pure pragmatism and theatrics of Parliamentary politics laid so bare at the same time so many Canadians are getting a fast and deep lesson on the Westminster system.

A year and a bit ago a lot of us were saying the LPC really needed to get their asses kicked so they could rejuvenate and hoist aboard some lessons about what voters are expecting. Lo and behold they begun to course correct just in time to miss the iceberg - assisted, of course, by other factors - and now the loyal opposition is in a position to learn some needed lessons and similarly reset.

Finally, I’m not a toastologist, but I did make my wife some toast today, and I think Pierre Poilievre is toast. I’ll happily raise a glass to that if so.

 

[dapaterson]

Finally, I’m not a toastologist, but I did make my wife some toast today, and I think Pierre Poilievre is toast. I’ll happily raise a glass to that if so.

The question is what lessons the CPC learns.

I want a viable opposition. Not Reform Redux.

 

[ArmyRick]

I would warn again that history is out teacher especially in politics.

I stand by my statement that Arrogance kills the Liberals and complacency kills the conservatives. While i think the conservatives may be feeling some of that lesson in real time, think about the much bigger danger that happens to PM MC in time (assuming he doesn't alter course, which if he steals Pierre's platform and executes it, hell, I am good), the Liberals are very much after that majority.

Warren Kinesella warned a few days ago "If they get their majority, then what? They better actually do something with it". Warren has had the most accurate political insight of any commentator/journalist I have ever seen (I say that knowing he usually stands by his fellow Liberals).

So the Liberals get their majority (I thought it would be for sure in the three by elections), and the conservatives may very well have to push out their leader. The same one that increased their seat count by 24 seats, errr, oops I mean 20 seats.

OK so they do switch leaders. The Liberals may come to truly regret who replaces Pierre Poilievre. Kathleen Wynne led the Ontario Liberals to a super loss from a majority government in 2018 after 15 years as ruling power in Ontario. If Carney doesn't walk carefully, that can still happen in 2029 (I still think if Trudeau stayed, the LPC would be third or fourth place party) .