Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[Deleted member 175000]

The internal party inquisition about social media posts and interviews may not have been super popular?

I would be surprised if there were any more crossers, and more surprised if they came from the Shadow Cabinet members that got that email. But...

With the LPC poised to grab a (slim) majority, and CPC polling in the toilet- it's not a huge stretch to see that email as part of a potentially broader shift from campaign at any moment "war footing" into a more internally focused power consolidation and allignment phase. If the party thinks we're 2-3 years from the next election there's a lot more runway to push out unn-alligned MP's via procedural shenanigans, EDA takeovers, and whip pressure.

IF they do that, and IF a member sees the writing on the wall that they're going to be the Canadian version of "primaried" - the relative math on their re-election chances as independents or floor crossers fundamentally changes

A three way choice of: throw your principles aside and loudly join the chorus line, lose your CPC nomination and be out of parliament, face the backlash of defecting and having to run as a liberal/independent isn't one that I envy

 

[Eaglelord17]

I wonder if it is just the ‘red tories’ who have finally found a better alternative than the CPC with the Liberals moving back to the center.

If the LPC held a election put a bunch of CPC members in and kicked some of the more left leaning Liberals out that could be a hell of a party.

 

[ArmyRick]

CPC polling in the toilet

Pardon? 8-12 points behind the LPC is not "in the toilet". Thats a blatant piss down spin your putting on it, Mr Knowsnothing. The NDP numbers are in the toilet. The PPC numbers are in the toilet.

I warned a bunch of you, arrogance is what kills the Liberals. Complacency is what kills the conservatives.

I do see 1 maybe 2 people that might jump ship from the CPC after a specific event happened. I won't say what. Gives you guys premature hope.

I am still waiting to see if Heather McPherson of the NDP says "tootles NDP" with Avi Lewis (anti-oil and gas and squabbling with Nanshee) running the show. She is an ALberta MP and being strict anti-energy is a political death blow.

Many of you should listen to the insights of Warren Kinsella (187th reminder, he was Chretein's campaigner). He is a Liberal. He has LONG experience in the game of politics. He was supportive of Carney in the beginning but today on Toronto Sun's full comment podcast, he gave a dire warning that Carney better deliver and it better be soon or he will be unelectable. He also said if he gets his very slim majority he better do something with it. This is the same man who saw the downfall of Trudeau years out and said how it would happen. He also predicted a year before Trudeau stepped down that he would not run in another election. He is not Nostradamus or anything like that, he pays close attention to political trends and history.

Hell, even Nick Nanos of Nanos polling (which had mostly shown strong Liberal lead for awhile) has warned people that polls are "only a snapshot in time" and they can change on a dime.

Hope is not a COA. Pierre meida tour of late is doing slow burn damage to Carney's liberals in ways most of you can't see, thats because I think most of you are letting feelings get in the way and you don't want to be seen as wrong. Carney squandered the best opportunity in the last year to ensure Liberal dominance for another decade. He may still be able to flip it around, but he has to quit piddling around with no show half measures and get at what Canadians really want. Or he will become unelectable. Ask Kathleen Wynne what FAFO did to her and the Ontario Liberals.

 

[MilEME09]

I wonder if it is just the ‘red tories’ who have finally found a better alternative than the CPC with the Liberals moving back to the center.

If the LPC held a election put a bunch of CPC members in and kicked some of the more left leaning Liberals out that could be a hell of a party.

time will tell, we have already seen many senior Trudeau era MPs quietly shown the door, thus the bi elections we are having. Some remain but I get the feeling they might not remain for long if they cant get results that Mark Carney is wanting.

 

[Deleted member 175000]

Pardon? 8-12 points behind the LPC is not "in the toilet".

It's in the toilet relative to both the once sizeable lead and the run of neck and neck performance- and in keeping with my overall point- low enough that PP does not want an election right now. Not needing or wanting to be election ready today gives more latitude for internal housekeeping to shape the party he wants for an election tomorrow

thats because I think most of you are letting feelings get in the way and you don't want to be seen as wrong.

LOL the irony.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Carney’s Question Period nervousness bad for Democracy

KOOP: Carney’s Question Period nervousness bad for Democracy

Prime Minister Mark Carney criticized for lower participation rate at parliamentary Question Periods, appearing in only 29% of them compared to Stephen Harper's 60% and Justin Trudeau’s 46%. The prime

www.winnipegsun.com

Interesting perspective on the power Canadian PM's weild, such as basically being able to order MPs how to vote or get kicked from the party. One of the biggest (or only) forms of accountability is the Parliament 's question period which Carney has a 29% attendance at.

 

[lenaitch]

Carney’s Question Period nervousness bad for Democracy

KOOP: Carney’s Question Period nervousness bad for Democracy

Prime Minister Mark Carney criticized for lower participation rate at parliamentary Question Periods, appearing in only 29% of them compared to Stephen Harper's 60% and Justin Trudeau’s 46%. The prime

www.winnipegsun.com

Interesting perspective on the power Canadian PM's weild, such as basically being able to order MPs how to vote or get kicked from the party. One of the biggest (or only) forms of accountability is the Parliament 's question period which Carney has a 29% attendance at.

Maybe he's just not into live theatre.

 

[MilEME09]

Carney’s Question Period nervousness bad for Democracy

KOOP: Carney’s Question Period nervousness bad for Democracy

Prime Minister Mark Carney criticized for lower participation rate at parliamentary Question Periods, appearing in only 29% of them compared to Stephen Harper's 60% and Justin Trudeau’s 46%. The prime

www.winnipegsun.com

Interesting perspective on the power Canadian PM's weild, such as basically being able to order MPs how to vote or get kicked from the party. One of the biggest (or only) forms of accountability is the Parliament 's question period which Carney has a 29% attendance at.

Issue here is Carney has been traveling a lot, so of course he would miss a bunch. At face value it looks bad but when your off on trade trips, domestic trips, and atleast 1 known community event. Its hard to also be in parliment at the same time

 

[RangerRay]

10 seems very exaggerated, but I guess we'll see.

I wonder what the hell is going on internally in the CPC. Could Pierre stance on the HSR really be that unpopular within the party? I can't really think of anything else that's happened recently that would even come close to causing such a shift.

It could this DOGE-style email that Tory MP’s received from the OLO…

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Opinion | Conservative MPs bristle as Pierre Poilievre asks them to justify their roles​

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is shuffling his deck, sending Elon Musk-style letters to his shadow ministers asking them to prove their worth

 

[Jarnhamar]

Issue here is Carney has been traveling a lot, so of course he would miss a bunch. At face value it looks bad but when your off on trade trips, domestic trips, and atleast 1 known community event. Its hard to also be in parliment at the same time

Travel is part of the job, especially for trade and domestic engagement. Regular presence in Parliament particularly during question period is still a core accountability function of the Prime Minister. As pointed out, one of the only ones we have.

It’s one of the few times elected representatives can directly scrutinize government decisions in real time.
Even with a demanding schedule, there’s an expectation that leaders balance external commitments with their responsibilities in the House. It risks creating the perception that accountability is being deprioritized.

Travel may explain some absences, it doesn’t justify a consistent pattern.

Edit spelling

 

[Good2Golf]

Oh man. So, used to be the exit for 174 westbound onto St Laurent wasn’t split off after Blair and combined with the 417 eastbound exit like it is now. It was a totally normal off ramp… after the merge of westbound 417/147. So traffic coming westbound on 417 from Innes/Walkley/Hunt Club would join the 174 just as it does now, but you had the option to try to cut hard right across the joining 174 lanes to make the St Laurent exit. In anything more than light traffic it was a batshit insane exercise in cutting across three lanes that had a tendency to turn Kamikaze. ‘Fix the Split’ was the big slogan in Ottawa transit for years and years.

I lived in Orleans, so I was “blocking force”…

And the biggest long time proponent was Peterborough's Conservative MP who pushed this during the Harper era (where the original idea started).

Funny how some folks forget the HSR idea/platform was Harper’s originally.

The well known elitist political power block in Canadian society centred around Ottawa?

its not centered around Ottawa, its based in Quebec’s Charlevoix countryside…

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Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

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[Czech_pivo]

Travel is part of the job, especially for trade and domestic engagement. Regular presence in Parliament particularly during question period is still a core accountability function of the Prime Minister. As pointed out, one of the only ones we have.

It’s one of the few times elected representatives can directly scrutinize government decisions in real time.
Even with a demanding schedule, there’s an expectation that leaders balance external commitments with their responsibilities in the House. It risks creating the perception that accountability is being deprioritized.

Travel may explain some absences, it doesn’t justify a consistent pattern.

Edit spelling

How about an analysis of days he's been in Canada when Parliament was sitting and he was not in Parliament?

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Travel is part of the job, especially for trade and domestic engagement. Regular presence in Parliament particularly during question period is still a core accountability function of the Prime Minister. As pointed out, one of the only ones we have.

It’s one of the few times elected representatives can directly scrutinize government decisions in real time.
Even with a demanding schedule, there’s an expectation that leaders balance external commitments with their responsibilities in the House. It risks creating the perception that accountability is being deprioritized.

Travel may explain some absences, it doesn’t justify a consistent pattern.

Edit spelling

I concur. He cannot hide behind the "I'm not a retail politician" persona for much longer....

 

[YZT580]

Issue here is Carney has been traveling a lot, so of course he would miss a bunch. At face value it looks bad but when your off on trade trips, domestic trips, and atleast 1 known community event. Its hard to also be in parliment at the same time

that was one of Trudeau's favourite ploys as well: well advertised travel for our benefit, don't you know. The more he skips out the more risky it will become.

 

[brihard]

I would be surprised if there were any more crossers, and more surprised if they came from the Shadow Cabinet members that got that email. But...

Largely agreed. The ‘iron was hot’ to cross a little while ago, fresh after the leadership confirmation vote and when the next crosser or two could lock in the majority. Now, one or two more would still be good political value just for the safety margin in votes, and maybe one or two CPC MPs exist who see potential personal advantage in doing so. I doubt more than that, unless a noteworthy position were on offer… Which seems unlikely.

I can’t gauge the remaining NDP well, but none look like obvious candidates to cross if they intend to continue having a future in Parliament from the next election onwards.

I’m personally glad PM Carney hasn’t called a spring election, but politically it’s surprising. He could almost certainly lock in a safe majority and have four years to run with it. The political types around him in the party apparatus must be fuming.

All that said, the chatter about more crossers has to be coming from somewhere. I’m curious if anything comes of it.

 

[Deleted member 175000]

Context re: Question Period Attendance

The more things change, the more they stay the same - from 2015. PM wants to focus on governance and deny the opposition air time, opposition wants his headline fuel and portrays the former as a threat to democracy.

A lot of support for a baseline expectation of 35-45% attendance across our last 4 PM's. With the exception of the last prancing jackanapes, most of that attendance was relegated to handful of questions right at the start solely from opposition leaders. Dear Justin had a flair for the dramatic and liked having a day all about him (Wednesday's to be specific) but that was abnormal.

So Carney is short by 6-16 appearances, 90-320 minutes of accountability time. Hopefully he's there more often this coming year.

 

[brihard]

Context re: Question Period Attendance:

The more things change, the more they stay the same - from 2015. PM wants to focus on governance and deny the opposition air time, opposition wants his headline fuel.

A lot of support for a baseline expectation of 35-45% attendance across our last 4 PM's. With the exception of the last prancing jackanapes, most of that attendance was relegated to handful of questions right at the start solely from opposition leaders.

Dear Justin had a flair for the dramatic and liked having a day all about him, but that was abnormal.

Yeah… I recognize the importance of question question period as an institution in our prominent… But also holy frig is it ever a big stupid waste of time, and that assessment carries regardless of who’s in government. For many years now it’s just devolved to sound byte theatrics.

 

[ytz]

I’m personally glad PM Carney hasn’t called a spring election, but politically it’s surprising. He could almost certainly lock in a safe majority and have four years to run with it. The political types around him in the party apparatus must be fuming.

It's easy to cynical. But I think the dude just doesn't like actual politics that much. He just wants to do some policy wonk stuff and move on.

 

[brihard]

It's easy to cynical. But I think the dude just doesn't like actual politics that much. He just wants to do some policy wonk stuff and move on.

That’s my sense too.

 

[Deleted member 175000]

It's easy to cynical. But I think the dude just doesn't like actual politics that much. He just wants to do some policy wonk stuff and move on.

Bang on- and there's a good chance it will be his downfall. Watching him speak in Davos vs. QP and press conferences... speaking to the people does not come naturally , it's almost like "layman" is a 2nd language to him and he's having to actively translate his thoughts on the fly- and he's not good at it.