Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[McG]

When you enter information into a discussion to support a conclusion, the "validity" of that information is relevant to whether or not it actually supports the conclusion you claim and so the validity of that information is germane to the discussion. If you argue that Canada is in trouble using false/misleading information then you have not actually substantiated the position that the trouble even exists for people to focus on it.

 

[ArmyRick]

Or you can open you eyes. Its all over the news, has been for years, left and right leaning media talking about how we need to solve a laundry list of issues, that somehow, never get sorted out.

Its seriously picking fly shit out of pepper. Canada is IN trouble. Or believe what you want.

My opinion is PM MC is not the solution.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Or you can open you eyes. Its all over the news, has been for years, left and right leaning media talking about how we need to solve a laundry list of issues, that somehow, never get sorted out.

Its seriously picking fly shit out of pepper. Canada is IN trouble. Or believe what you want.

My opinion is PM MC is not the solution.

Poor productivity is the real killer. We're lazy, inefficient and don't innovate, and want to be paid well for it with great benefits, compared especially to the USA:

Canada’s weak productivity: reversing course​

What productivity is and why it matters​

Canada’s weak productivity growth is getting a lot of attention these days. And with good reason.

It makes our economy vulnerable to major disruptions like the trade conflict with the United States. Stronger productivity would protect against such shocks and give us momentum to seize opportunities in a rapidly changing world.

Strong productivity acts like a healthy immune system, making our economy more resilient. Contrary to what many people think, productivity does not mean working longer hours or working harder. It’s about making more with what we already have—it’s about producing better.

Canada’s weak productivity has persisted for 25 years. We’re less productive than other major economies, and that gap has widened since 2000, especially with the United States.

Improving productivity would allow us to earn more money while also keeping inflation low. If our productivity growth since 2000 had been similar to that of other G7 countries, our GDP in Canada today would be about 9% higher, which translates to almost $7,000 per person.

Deep down, Canada’s affordability problem is really a productivity problem. … To make things more affordable, we need to raise our income. And the way to grow our income is by increasing productivity.

Canada’s weak productivity: reversing course

External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent discusses Canada’s longstanding weak productivity, what can be done to reverse the trend, and how we would all benefit if we do.

www.bankofcanada.ca

 

[YZT580]

Most searches will turn up links to information synthesized from OECD reports.

OECD sources are difficult to pin down, but can be found for those interested. Many will be PDFs. Be sure to check publication dates; some are outdated by a decade or more.

the one quoted can't be too outdated. It covers to the end of 2022 and I can just about guarantee that our economy hasn't improved any since then

 

[Altair]

the one quoted can't be too outdated. It covers to the end of 2022 and I can just about guarantee that our economy hasn't improved any since then

It's GDP per capita.

Seeing as we were one of the fastest growing nations on earth due to immigration it drags per capita GDP growth down.

The report then was showing a problem, but not the problem people were pointing to. It was showing we were growing too fast population wise for our economy to handle.

We are actively shrinking in population right now while our gdp continues to grow, so paradoxically our GDP per capita growth will probably skyrocket.

This is what happens when you have uninformed people on twitter posting nonsense.

 

[Brad Sallows]

It's GDP per capita.

Seeing as we were one of the fastest growing nations on earth due to immigration it drags per capita GDP growth down.

This is what happens when you have uninformed people on twitter posting nonsense.

As I've noted repeatedly, spot measurements are not really helpful and are no match for trend measurements. The trend is unimpressive. It would be nice to exhibit a mostly monotonically increasing curve over the long term, and Canada doesn't.

US

Canada

It takes about 30 seconds to find results to check most claims about common economic measures. My memory is fallible so I often check my claims before I post, even if I'm too lazy to post links.

Even if you don't want to post links, you can at least verify whether your claims about other people posting nonsense are also nonsense.

 

[Altair]

As I've noted repeatedly, spot measurements are not really helpful and are no match for trend measurements. The trend is unimpressive. It would be nice to exhibit a mostly monotonically increasing curve over the long term, and Canada doesn't.

US

Canada

It takes about 30 seconds to find results to check most claims about common economic measures. My memory is fallible so I often check my claims before I post, even if I'm too lazy to post links.

Even if you don't want to post links, you can at least verify whether your claims about other people posting nonsense are also nonsense.

When did Trudeau lower immigration?

October 2024.

When did we see population growth flatline?

2025.

When did our population start to shrink?

2026.

When does the graph you just shared stop with it's data?

2023.

Tell me then, what good is a graph from 2023 at capturing population decline, thus GDP per capita increasing, in 2026?

I'll wait.

 

[daftandbarmy]

More OECD results ... mixed but not great overall.

Carney and his bunch have a steep uphill struggle, especially because the Liberals traditionally just love a pile of the good old red tape

Canada Economic Snapshot​

Canada’s GDP per capita (in PPP) is slightly above the OECD average but remains below that of top-performing countries, despite significant potential for higher levels thanks to strong institutions, a highly skilled workforce, and abundant natural resources. This gap is largely due to a below-average productivity level, which has declined further relative to top-performing economies in recent years. The capital stock per worker also remains below average. While overall labour utilisation is high, female labour force participation continues to lag slightly that of men.

Policy priorities should focus on boosting sluggish productivity growth by enhancing investment in physical and digital infrastructure and fostering a more competitive and dynamic business environment. Further key actions include reducing interprovincial barriers to trade and labour mobility, and lowering entry barriers in regulated sectors, including restrictions on foreign investment in these sectors. Labour utilisation among women and other underrepresented groups, such as immigrants, also has room for improvement.

https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-surveys/canada-economic-snapshot.html

 

[Altair]

More OECD results ... mixed but not great overall.

Carney and his bunch have a steep uphill struggle, especially because the Liberals traditionally just love a pile of the good old red tape

Canada Economic Snapshot​

Canada’s GDP per capita (in PPP) is slightly above the OECD average but remains below that of top-performing countries, despite significant potential for higher levels thanks to strong institutions, a highly skilled workforce, and abundant natural resources. This gap is largely due to a below-average productivity level, which has declined further relative to top-performing economies in recent years. The capital stock per worker also remains below average. While overall labour utilisation is high, female labour force participation continues to lag slightly that of men.

Policy priorities should focus on boosting sluggish productivity growth by enhancing investment in physical and digital infrastructure and fostering a more competitive and dynamic business environment. Further key actions include reducing interprovincial barriers to trade and labour mobility, and lowering entry barriers in regulated sectors, including restrictions on foreign investment in these sectors. Labour utilisation among women and other underrepresented groups, such as immigrants, also has room for improvement.

https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-surveys/canada-economic-snapshot.html

Im happy you moved past the twitter slop.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Tell me then, what good is a graph from 2023 at capturing population decline, thus GDP per capita increasing, in 2026?

The decades-long trend it shows.

Population decline, 2025 Q4. 103,504 people. Population estimate for 01 Jan 2026: 41,472,081. World Bank GDP estimate for 2025: about $2.1T USD (so comparable to what's at the links I provided).

$2.1T / 41,472,081 = $50636 (per capita)
$2.1T / (41,472,081+103,504) = $50510 (per capita)

Not much more than a rounding error. Not much different from the past few years. And those are current, meaning not adjusted, USD. So if the numbers aren't increasing, things are worse than they look.

 

[Altair]

The decades-long trend it shows.

Population decline, 2025 Q4. 103,504 people. Population estimate for 01 Jan 2026: 41,472,081. World Bank GDP estimate for 2025: about $2.1T USD (so comparable to what's at the links I provided).

$2.1T / 41,472,081 = $50636 (per capita)
$2.1T / (41,472,081+103,504) = $50510 (per capita)

Not much more than a rounding error. Not much different from the past few years. And those are current, meaning not adjusted, USD. So if the numbers aren't increasing, things are worse than they look.

Canada GDP (2026) - Worldometer

Current and historical Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Canada in nominal and real US dollar values. GDP growth rates and charts

www.worldometers.info

IMF​

Nominal (current) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Canada is $2.51 trillion ($2,507,340,000,000) as of 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).The GDP growth rate in 2026 is 1.5%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).GDP per Capita in Canada (with a population of 40,467,728 people) is $60,305 in 2026, an increase of $4,540 from $55,765 in 2025; this represents a change of 8.1% in GDP per capita.

Due to population decline, and GDP growth our GDP per capita increased 8.1 percent.

Compared to 1.4 percent from the slop tweet, I stand by what I said, it skyrocketed from where it was in just one year.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Due to population decline, and GDP growth our GDP per capita increased 8.1 percent.

Compared to 1.4 percent from the slop tweet, I stand by what I said, it skyrocketed from where it was in just one year.

It's May, 2026. GDP numbers for 2026 are still estimates/projections. Even 2025 numbers aren't very firm, but at least they're more firm than complete unknowns/extrapolations.

The estimates of population loss for 2025 vary, but are somewhere around 100,000 net for the year. It should have been obvious by inspection, but certainly after I showed a calculation, that any given total GDP number is so large that a per capita calculation just isn't really sensitive to that change in population. That leaves changes in the GDP number as the overwhelming determinant of significant changes in GDP per capita. And for comparison across years, it's best to have at least estimates of what was done rather than extrapolations.

 

[Altair]

It's May, 2026. GDP numbers for 2026 are still estimates/projections. Even 2025 numbers aren't very firm, but at least they're more firm than complete unknowns/extrapolations.

The estimates of population loss for 2025 vary, but are somewhere around 100,000 net for the year. It should have been obvious by inspection, but certainly after I showed a calculation, that any given total GDP number is so large that a per capita calculation just isn't really sensitive to that change in population. That leaves changes in the GDP number as the overwhelming determinant of significant changes in GDP per capita. And for comparison across years, it's best to have at least estimates of what was done rather than extrapolations.

The number is very large but its also a very stupid statistic.
Think for a second, if we just shipped off 250k people, but boosted oil revenue, our GDP per capita would soar.
Is the economy any healthier? No. We just have less people sharing the same amount of the pie.

GDP growth last year was 1.7 percent. Nothing to write home about. But that small growth and the decrease in population was enough to pump up our GDP per capita numbers.

The USA by comparison,

United States GDP (2026) - Worldometer

Current and historical Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States in nominal and real US dollar values. GDP growth rates and charts

www.worldometers.info

Nominal (current) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States is $32.38 trillion ($32,383,920,000,000) as of 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).The GDP growth rate in 2026 is 2.3%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).GDP per Capita in the United States (with a population of 349,035,494 people) is $94,430 in 2026, an increase of $4,439 from $89,991 in 2025; this represents a change of 4.9% in GDP per capita.

They only grew 4.9 percent per capita despite higher GDP growth.

It's a really dumb statistic that muddles so much and points at so many things at once that it's mostly just noise.

It's why it was dumb when PP was talking about it in march 2025 and it's dumb now. The underlying economy didn't get 8.1 percent better. We just got rid of a lot of people while maintaining just enough growth to make that number look good.

And I need to spend all this time, and all this work, because someone posted BS on twitter.

It would be nice if people would do a few minutes of verifying the source material before posting it here and making my wife give me side eye because...

 

[Brad Sallows]

The number is very large but its also a very stupid statistic.

Per capita is more useful than total, and PPP adjusted numbers are more useful still.

 

[Altair]

Per capita is more useful than total, and PPP adjusted numbers are more useful still.

Median household income trumps them all. So does median wealth.

It would show that we are still richer than alabama, even in USD.

But that doesn't fit the narrative of "CANADA IS FAILING!" so nobody uses it.

 

[Brad Sallows]

But that doesn't fit the narrative of "CANADA IS FAILING!" so nobody uses it.

Very few single measures do. Put them all together, though, and a trend is obvious. Not failing, but faltering.

The US is in a breakaway by itself, and Canada is still part of the chase group. It's unlikely that we can join the breakaway, but we could certainly fall out of the chase group if we misallocate too much capital and don't strive to match growth and productivity improvement rates with the US.

Canada is stuck with being in competition with the US. Most of our population is within a short drive of the border. Same language, mostly same general culture. Very easy for people with prospects to improve them by migrating from here to there. Telling ourselves we're healthier and more compassionate isn't proof against falling so far behind the US in the next 50 years that the quality-of-life gap looks like the one between us and the good parts of most South American countries right now.

 

[Altair]

Very few single measures do. Put them all together, though, and a trend is obvious. Not failing, but faltering.

The US is in a breakaway by itself, and Canada is still part of the chase group. It's unlikely that we can join the breakaway, but we could certainly fall out of the chase group if we misallocate too much capital and don't strive to match growth and productivity improvement rates with the US.

Canada is stuck with being in competition with the US. Most of our population is within a short drive of the border. Same language, mostly same general culture. Very easy for people with prospects to improve them by migrating from here to there. Telling ourselves we're healthier and more compassionate isn't proof against falling so far behind the US in the next 50 years that the quality-of-life gap looks like the one between us and the good parts of most South American countries right now.

If people would stop comparing us to the USA we would be fine.

The americans have debt fulled GDP growth, with way more wealth inequality, never mind medical and student debt problems.

Can they afford their deficits because of reserve currency status and having the largest capital markets on the planet that suck up untold trillions in investments and liquidity? Yes. Can Canada do that? No.

So why do we compare our economic prospects to that of the USA? We look to Europe or wealthy Asia and we are right there in the middle of the pack. Not great, not terrible.

Sure the GDP per capita stat looked ugly, but that wasn't anything to do with the economy, it was because we were growing at the rate of a African nation without access to birth control. And GDP per capita sucks as a stat, because Ireland only looks so good because American multinationals declare their income there. The average Irish individual didn't make a penny more because of that surge in GDP per capita.

But to low information voters, this all looks damning. And politicians, but especially PP, peddle in this because the long answer that actually contains the nuance is complicated and takes critical thinking.

Truth of the matter is, Canada is on par with its peers, our underlying metrics are not great, not terrible, and while we can always do better, Canada is by no means failing.

 

[Brad Sallows]

So why do we compare our economic prospects to that of the USA?

Because Canada has a serious problem with people with high potential emigrating to the US.

Right now BC is working to attract health workers from the US. It's a fact that health workers in the US (as with most workers in the US) have higher incomes and can consume at higher levels. For now, BC reaps the benefit of people who are mostly just dissatisfied with Trump. They obviously haven't been watching the BCNU ads about the hard life of nurses here, or the news spots about the high stresses of being almost anyone in a hospital. A few years from now Trump will be gone, they'll have experienced the fact that Canadian facilities are not stress-free, and they'll be thinking about their incomes and taxes.

Another interesting phenomenon: income taxes are generally falling in "red" (Republican-controlled) states and rising in "blue" (Democrat-controlled) states. Article here. "In 2006, 15 states had top individual income-tax rates below 5%, and only one exceeded 10%, according to the report’s historical data. Today, more than half of states have top rates below 5%, while several states and the District of Columbia have rates above 10%." No need to guess which party dominates the under-5 group, and which dominates the over-10 group.

[Add: Florida has no income tax, and is working on lowering sales tax, for those who can handle a climate without snow and a topography without mountains. DeSantis has mused about getting sales tax down to zero, but that would be a ways off.]

 

[Jarnhamar]

Suggesting our economic underperformance relative to peers is just political spin ignores what institutions like the Bank of Canada and OECD have been warning about for years.

 

[MilEME09]

Suggesting our economic underperformance relative to peers is just political spin ignores what institutions like the Bank of Canada and OECD have been warning about for years.

True but the biggest reason for the sharp decline wasnt over all economic performance but an immigration system that was heavily exploited for loop holes. Many hate on the TFW program for example, but i find all the hate is directed at the government for having the program, no one seems to be stopping to ask why businesses are using it so much.

Instead of debating symptoms of the problem and trying to take a perverbial Tylenol for the economy to make the problem go away, we need to get to the root causes and solve it that way.