Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[ArmyRick]

not given a mulligan.

Wait? Like the Canadian people gave the LPC a mulligan?

He should have been out when he failed to keep his own seat

And we gave him a strong showing of support last January, so dead argument. If the CPC membership did not want him, they would have said so at that time.
That being said, if it comes up again (the CPC is the only party that has that right) and we decide to toss him out, then he is done.

I’m not sure how wise popular selection of party candidates is, for reasons like this…

I am all for selecting our candidates in the parties (I supported out MP Alex Ruff when he was running to replace Larry Miller as the CPC candidate in our riding, their was like 6 choices on the ballet if I remember correctly).
That being said, I would like to know why the CPC didn't screen this candidate that they had to boot out.

 

[YZT580]

What? You really want to hurt the CPC right now, don't you? He is a poison pill. His hypocritical behaviour during the lockdowns has ruined his reputation.


Word around the campfire (rumours) is that Pierre will step down if CPC loses.

On that note, I found out more about the candidate the locals originally picked as a CPC candidate (and was replaced by the party). He is apparently very openly homophobic, transphobic and would pursue issue conservatives left alone LONG time ago (like abortion).

Kenney's transgressions were last week. No one will remember.

 

[ArmyRick]

Kenney's transgressions were last week. No one will remember.

If Kenney gets in as CPC leader (he won't, way too much baggage), forget Alberta being a CPC stronghold. They will turn against him.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

A research institute focused on seniors’ policy is urging caution when discussing changes to old age security.

Breaking News ... Foxes issue research paper saying that fences around hen houses are an affront and should be abolished

 

[Halifax Tar]

I'm not saying you're wrong, I think its great policy. However the realist in me sees that until we have a CPC government, there will be absolutely no movement on the issue because LPC owes those same $100K+ per annum seniors their political lives.

This won't be tackled by any party until the demographic with the most skin in the game is a less influential demographic.

 

[ytz]

Based on the last pay increase, any Major or above with five years in rank (regardless of trade), retiring after 35 years will receive a pension of $100K+ annually (assuming no division due to divorce, which, admittedly, may not be a reasonable assumption).

Ignoring SOF and SAR, only CCWOs will cross the 100K pension line.

Like I said. Outside of specialist officers, is basically senior officers and Chiefs with a CD2. And that's not actually a lot of the CAF. The majority of the CAF is NCMs. And the majority of the CAF doesn't reach a CD2.

In the civilian world, we're basically talking about senior executives having 100k incomes in retirement. I don't think I know a single senior who has six figure pension.

 

[ytz]

Breaking News ... Foxes issue research paper saying that fences around hen houses are an affront and should be abolished

They are getting upset that the idea is getting bipartisan traction.

 

[ytz]

I am not against that approach BUT the senior citizens are one of the largest voting bases out there.

Maybe. But not that many six figure earning seniors. I bet if the phase out was between $80-100k, about 90% of seniors wouldn't be impacted and billions would still be saved.

 

[YZT580]

Maybe. But not that many six figure earning seniors. I bet if the phase out was between $80-100k, about 90% of seniors wouldn't be impacted and billions would still be saved.

Not as large as you might think. Over a year it would work out to less than 7 Billion. Its not chump change but it isn't a large enough figure to entice the government to risk alienating that same 10%. Apart from their votes they are also significant contributors to the party kettle.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Well, we have a lot more seniors receiving it. The last surplus was 2014-15. OAS recipients have increased 32% since then. Given that that’s an expansion of one of our largest federal expenditures, that growth in OAS recipients is a huge hit on the federal balance sheet.

Sure. In case I didn't already mention it, 2026 Fiscal Reference Tables are out. (Apparently 2014-15 was not quite a budgetary surplus.)

In that same period, federal revenues grew from about $280B to $526B (nominal, not adjusted). That's almost an 88% increase. BoC inflation calculator shows about 34% inflation over that same period.

[Add: program expenses approximately doubled and public debt charges more than doubled in the same period.]

The problem is not revenues. Revenues are growing handily. The problem is expenses.

Sure OAS should be reformed, but after OAS is reformed, the spending problem remains. OAS reform will be a one-time downward adjustment in spending without much affecting spending growth (a slight easing of the slope of the trend line as long as the relative number seniors in the population continues to increase). The essential trend will remain.

Canada has a spending problem.

 

[lenaitch]

When customer service was a thing.

View attachment 103017

OK, I'm not that old.

 

[ytz]

Not as large as you might think. Over a year it would work out to less than 7 Billion. Its not chump change but it isn't a large enough figure to entice the government to risk alienating that same 10%. Apart from their votes they are also significant contributors to the party kettle.

We've got people complaining about the few million spent on Eurovision. But we're supposed to ignore $7B that could be saved/repurposed from OAS?

 

[Halifax Tar]

We've got people complaining about the few million spent on Eurovision. But we're supposed to ignore $7B that could be saved/repurposed from OAS?

Everyone likes to defend the hobby horse as being small potatoes.

Death by a thousand cuts.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Everyone likes to defend the hobby horse as being small potatoes.

Death by a thousand cuts.

AKA no individual raindrop takes the blame for the flooding.

 

[YZT580]

We've got people complaining about the few million spent on Eurovision. But we're supposed to ignore $7B that could be saved/repurposed from OAS?

why not, we just wrote off almost 5 billion in irretrievable COVID payouts. Just call it a rounding error.

 

[daftandbarmy]

why not, we just wrote off almost 5 billion in irretrievable COVID payouts. Just call it a rounding error.

Those are rookie numbers...

The Waste File:​

Counted in full, every dollar out that bought nothing of equal value comes to $114.2 billion to $147.9 billion. That is cost past the price announced, debts Ottawa has written off, and money its own books expect not to come back. Then the file, from ArriveCAN, an app whose first version cost $80,000 and whose total the Auditor General put at $59.5M, to a Phoenix pay system that still can't pay everyone on time. Every entry links to its source.

$114.2B to $147.9B of federal waste, counted in full, each part with its source.

Every dollar out that bought nothing of equal value: $114.2B to $147.9B, from costs past the price announced, debts written off and money Ottawa expects to lose. Ottawa's own count is the narrowest way to count it.

drained.ca