- Reaction score
- 12,038
- Points
- 1,160
I am as confounded by Trump's actions as the next person. I think that is a life goal for him. It is hard to be held accountable if nobody knows what your intentions are. I do sense that he never wants to leave himself without options. I also sense that when he believes he has the upperhand and can impose his will then he will bully. When he fears being bullied, when his position is weak, then he aims for civility, at least until one of two things happen: he improves his position or he is backed into a corner.
CRINK.
NK - I think he feels he got the measure of North Korea in his first term - NK is a nuclear threat but not a commercial threat.
I - Iran is being contained courtesy of Israel and his Abraham Accords with a strong assist from drought. Riots in the streets.
R - Russia - he may be discovering that Russia is not what he thought it was. It is militarily and commercially less than he feared. It is dependent on not just China but also North Korea and Iran. That support is weak. But Putin still has nuclear cards to play. And he demonstrates that he isn't bound by anybody's rules. He will exploit those rules when it suits him but will circumvent them when he wants.
C - China is in a game all its own. It is both a nuclear and a commercial threat. But the commercial threat resulting from a very large GDP which generates a very large war chest is constrained by a ver large population. Xi and his party only have money to play with if their people are willing to put up with a high level of control and a low standard of living. If Xi loses control then the commercial threat changes from a focused, poltical one to a more conventional one subject to market conditions.
I think he might perceive that there are enough internal tensions in CRINK that with Europe showing a bit more steel he can afford to focus on China. And he needs enough carrot to keep China from moving from Russia's frenemy to its friend, or worse, its master, and enough stick to keep reminding Xi of his place. And that stick both frightens and angers Xi.
en.wikipedia.org
The focus of that anger is the source of the humiliation - the Anglo-Saxon world with its liberal rules, the Brits and their empire, the heirs to that empire, the Yanks, the Japanese that invaded them and the Taiwanese that constantly remind them that not all Chinese agree with the Party.
....
I don't know what Trump's game is and I wobble between fear and curiousity. One thing I don't fear is a group of narcissists sitting down at one table and co-operating.
CRINK.
NK - I think he feels he got the measure of North Korea in his first term - NK is a nuclear threat but not a commercial threat.
I - Iran is being contained courtesy of Israel and his Abraham Accords with a strong assist from drought. Riots in the streets.
R - Russia - he may be discovering that Russia is not what he thought it was. It is militarily and commercially less than he feared. It is dependent on not just China but also North Korea and Iran. That support is weak. But Putin still has nuclear cards to play. And he demonstrates that he isn't bound by anybody's rules. He will exploit those rules when it suits him but will circumvent them when he wants.
C - China is in a game all its own. It is both a nuclear and a commercial threat. But the commercial threat resulting from a very large GDP which generates a very large war chest is constrained by a ver large population. Xi and his party only have money to play with if their people are willing to put up with a high level of control and a low standard of living. If Xi loses control then the commercial threat changes from a focused, poltical one to a more conventional one subject to market conditions.
I think he might perceive that there are enough internal tensions in CRINK that with Europe showing a bit more steel he can afford to focus on China. And he needs enough carrot to keep China from moving from Russia's frenemy to its friend, or worse, its master, and enough stick to keep reminding Xi of his place. And that stick both frightens and angers Xi.
Century of humiliation - Wikipedia
The focus of that anger is the source of the humiliation - the Anglo-Saxon world with its liberal rules, the Brits and their empire, the heirs to that empire, the Yanks, the Japanese that invaded them and the Taiwanese that constantly remind them that not all Chinese agree with the Party.
....
I don't know what Trump's game is and I wobble between fear and curiousity. One thing I don't fear is a group of narcissists sitting down at one table and co-operating.
