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New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy

  • Thread starter Thread starter GAP
  • Start date Start date
It's playing politics, reverse side of the same coin, you see it all the time announcing say $1B over 5 years for something. Well that's great your spending 1 billion, but in reality it's $200 million every year for 5 years. $104 Billion over 30 years is $3.5 Billion a year rounded up, drop in the bucket and that's only estimating to 2040, over the entire life span of these ships, knowing Canadian procurement, and not expecting anything to change over the next 50 years i'd say we can forecast life out to 2060 pegging us at only 2 billion a year towards the entire life span of these ships.
 
jmt18325 said:
It's not like buying trucks or planes. We have the people and facilities to build the ships (now).  If we buy offshore, the money and skill is pretty much gone (unless we're getting 100% irb return).
What skills? Defense procurement is about buying a piece of kit. Let some other department worry about buying skillsets (that we don't have), with their money. 50% over market value is a hell of a lot of money that could buy more missiles or fuel or food for those sailors. You want money in Canada? Let them do repair work. We shouldn't be waiting 20 years for a surface combatant because Irving has to learn how to build one first.
 
That actually pisses me off, because I find it extremely dishonest and misleading to include a ton of costs that would have been incurred anyway.  (On the media's behalf.)

The sailors will be employed, regardless of what design of ship they choose.  Those ships will require fuel, regardless of what design they choose.  How much fuel?  That depends on how often they are deployed, etc -- but regardless, those costs will exist no matter what.

As someone with an interest in the matter, and as a taxpayer - I want to know what getting the new ships will cost.  Not how much they will cost 'including fuel, salaries, food, cleaning supplies, pencils & paper, etc' -- I want to know how much the BUILDING & ACQUISITION of the ships will cost.  Leave all the other numbers out of it, especially for costs will be incurred regardless.
 
Stop trying to bring balance with the MSM, you'll die tired.  They have their axe to grind against the fascist military industrial complex the procurement system must obviously be.  Sometimes you can't fix stupid.
 
It's the same stupid life cycle costs they tried to apply to the F35. For some reason the bureaucrats can't figure out we're buying a tool to perform a capability, you don't calculate the full life cycle cost of a hammer for a construction engineer, you just pay $20 bucks for it and carry on.
 
PuckChaser: For more fun with procurement figures see:

The myth of the $600 hammer
http://www.govexec.com/federal-news/1998/12/the-myth-of-the-600-hammer/5271/


Mark
Ottawa
 
PuckChaser said:
It's the same stupid life cycle costs they tried to apply to the F35. For some reason the bureaucrats can't figure out we're buying a tool to perform a capability, you don't calculate the full life cycle cost of a hammer for a construction engineer, you just pay $20 bucks for it and carry on.

Wouldn't that be something else:

Acquisition cost: $20.
Used by Carpenter for 10 years, 1,000 hours a year @ salary $45 an hour.

Cost of hammer: $450,020.

;D
 
You forgot to add the cost of the nails, 1000 nails at $40 a box times 20 boxes a year for 10 years = another $8000.
 
CBH99 said:
That actually pisses me off, because I find it extremely dishonest and misleading to include a ton of costs that would have been incurred anyway.  (On the media's behalf.)

I agree - partially - right up until the "would have been incurred anyway".  The line items are still applicable but the quantities may be variable.

The sailors will be employed, regardless of what design of ship they choose. 

But how many sailors?  While we are building ships in 2040 to an off the shelf design of 2010 what will our allies and enemies be sailing?

Those ships will require fuel, regardless of what design they choose.

But what fuel?  Distillate?  Or something else?  What engines will be driving our competitors ships in 2040?

How much fuel?  That depends on how often they are deployed, etc -- but regardless, those costs will exist no matter what.

No arguments here.

As someone with an interest in the matter, and as a taxpayer - I want to know what getting the new ships will cost.  Not how much they will cost 'including fuel, salaries, food, cleaning supplies, pencils & paper, etc' -- I want to know how much the BUILDING & ACQUISITION of the ships will cost.  Leave all the other numbers out of it, especially for costs will be incurred regardless.

Agreed entirely.

The combination of the single class and long build makes no sense.  We will be building, and sailing, obsolete ships with obsolete weapons and obsolete sensors, powered by obsolete engines by the time the single class contract is filled.

And how many sailors the navy will need, and how many ships they will need, to do what jobs, are all in the never-never.

If the build rate is setting the pace and the pace is one hull a year then set the programme up for delivery of flights of 4 to 6 hulls at a time and review the design as soon as the first flight is contracted so that the next flight will more closely match the needs and capabilities.

I agree entirely that the only number that matters is the cost of the build contract. 

And, if you do go off into the never-never, you only encourage your vendors to inflate prices as they feel themselves to be on the hook for the unknowable.

Aaaaargh!!!! Shyte.  ;D :facepalm:
 
Chris Pook said:
I agree entirely that the only number that matters is the cost of the build contract. 

No.  Ideally vendors will present ideas that may cost more but result in downstream savings ("For an extra $5M we can automate the basket weaving function, so you'll have four less basketweavers on board, but one more basket-weaving machine technician on board"), so the ongoing operating costs are germane when looking at options.  If you look solely at acquisition cost, you get the lowest cost compliant bidder, and not necessarily the best capability for the funds available.
 
OK.  I will accept that DAP.  That is an appropriate use of costing O&M - determining the cost of operating the vehicle/platform based on current year data.  That can be used for comparing designs.  It can also be used for setting next year's operating budget.  It can't be considered a reliable means of setting a 40 year budget.

Life-Cycle costing is tool for comparing solutions.  And that is all.  Least cost wins - barring quality factors.

I did let my temper get the better of me.
 
Semi-related: an update on NRWS.

Defense-Aerospace

Raytheon Canada Limited Chosen to Enhance Royal Canadian Navy Crew Safety
(Source: Raytheon Co.; issued March 18, 2016)
CALGARY, Alberta --- Raytheon Canada Limited, a subsidiary of Raytheon Company, has been awarded a contract to install up to 58 Naval Remote Weapon Stations (NRWS) on Royal Canadian Navy surface vessels. The NRWS is a mission-proven solution that replaces manually operated stations with technologies that allow for remote operations.

Remote operations enhance crew safety by eliminating the need to have operators on the deck of the ship during close-range engagement. The NRWS is based on the proven Mini-Typhoon product line provided by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Limited, Raytheon Canada Limited's teammate on this award.

"Raytheon modernizes mission critical systems while retaining proven capabilities and effectiveness for our partners," said Todd Probert, board of directors, Raytheon Canada Limited. "This integrated and innovative technology will provide effective weapon operations for the Royal Canadian Navy operating in high-threat littoral areas

(...SNIPPED)

 
I hope it turns out to be something like the French Nexer/Narwall system, where a single operator using a single console can monitor 360 degrees around the ship in all lighting conditions for asymmetric threat and then, simply order the system to shoot at one or more target as required, with the system then tracking and firing independently at the designated target, again over 360 degrees, without the operator needing to get involved (letting him/her concentrate on identification of further threats).
 
On the issue of life cycle costs, I believe this was something that the auditor general requires, and it was Kevin Page who called out the government for ignoring or suppressing those costs on there F35. I'm not sure if it is legal requirement to add in all the related costs, but certainly it makes financial administrative sense? There are some costs that cannot be factored in, like battle damage, shipyard sabotage, running aground, the price of beer for the mess etc. 
 
It makes 0 sense to include these costs, as they would get paid regardless. Maybe Kevin Page thought we'd just fire all the mechanics and pilots if we didn't buy the planes.
 
For some reason the bean counters disagree, but there has to be some degree of cost projection. It is the right of government to decide how much they want to fiscally commit to. But, you 're right,  I don't see them doing that sort of accounting for other things, like, for example, the cost of Parliament for the next 30 years, or the cost of official bilingualism. There are sacred cows, and the military is not sacred like the rest, but nevertheless it is a cow to be milked, apparently.
 
I have no problem with costing out a service. 

But a better metric is to take next year's O&M costs, modify them according to the expectations of the vendors of any new kit and then add on the incremental cost of the unit (ship or plane).  The incremental costs are the cost of supplying the unit divided by its life expectancy, plus and financial costs for financing the unit.

The cost of the service needs to be annualized in the near term.  Not projected to the great blue yonder.

As far as the plane or ship itself is concerned, the only valid metric is the contracted price for delivery.

The cost of operating the CBC for next year -  That makes sense.  The projected cost of operating the CBC over the next millenium - That makes no sense.
 
As I have indicated before, what matters to me, and I believe to the public in general, are numbers that one can make sense of that truly inform any decision. That is what accounting was invented for (as one of my teacher once explained): provide decision makers with clear and relevant information.

Personally, it is the politicized way the government figures are derived and then presented that is dishonest, not the actual point accountants wish to make. And the PBO is just as bad, as his F-35 report demonstrated.

Information on the actual item cost of a system is important. Related costs that may be incurred as a result are important (imagine a totally new weapon that costs only 100 millions, but require us to add 5,000 extra service people). Expected operation and maintenance costs are important (and the underlying hypotheses, such as regular peacetime use vs war time use, etc.). But they must be properly presented so as to not create confusion, which means they must be contextualized into the existing budget plans, and not be allowed to be all added up into a single "total life cycle cost" figure that scares everyone.

So for instance, in the shipbuilding case, you would say something like: The AOPS will cost $900M each to build (item cost); during the seven years covered by construction, expenditures are expected to be "a" in year one, "b" in year two, etc. resulting in no increase in the Cf capital budget in year one and two, then $100M increase in capital budget of year three, etc (this contextualizes by indicating the  changes only in each year, as other capital projects come to an end or have lower expenditures, etc.); to service the AOPS, we will have to spend $ 250M to build new jetties in Halifax and in Iqaluit (related costs); this will result in spending of "x" in each of the following capital expenditure budget years, with no effect/increases of "y" in those years budget (contextualized); expected O&M costs during the lifetime of the AOPS are expected to be "a" in year "x", "b" in year "y", etc. to the end of service and for normal peacetime use (hypothesis), which represents an increase/decrease of "y" dollars in year "a", etc. etc. and therefore, no change or an increase/decrease of "y" dollars in the overall CF budget for years "a", etc. etc.

This may seem long and convoluted, but the people and the lazy journalist who feed them information (1) would not have an overall scary figure to brandy about and (2) would be able to see immediately not just the specific various cost factors, but their projected effect in every budget year. This last figure being the most important one.

This information exists, but it is currently buried in complex budget calculation internal to the department only, and the journalists don't usually go looking for them: The single total cycle cost figure is much larger and therefore more spectacular for the journalists. It sells more paper to say "The Canadian Navy fleet renewal will cost taxpayers $100b" than to say "The Canadian Navy fleet renewal will require a 2% annual increase in the CF capital acquisition budget for the next five years, remaining at that level thereafter but will not require increases in the annual defence budget otherwise, corrected for inflation."   
 
 
If the Royal Research Society doesn't jump on the name for its icebreaker, perhaps HMCS Boaty McBoatface could be used for one of the more boaty-looking boats of the future fleet?  :D

Regards
G2G

p.s.  I agree with OGBD that whatever costing is presented should have as a primary purpose, to appropriately inform decision makers and public alike, on the costs of programs that the Government is about to invest in.  That said, the Government should also, for perspective's sake, provide information that indicates what an equivalent amount of life-cycle costs would be for the existing fleet.
 
Would prefer that to either of the official JSS names the previous administration decided upon.
 
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