North Korea (Superthread)

[The Bread Guy]

At least according to the North Korean news agency:

The South Headquarters of the Pan-national Alliance for Korea's Reunification, the Solidarity for Implementing the South-North Joint Declaration, the People for Achieving Peace and Reunification, the Solidarity of Youth and Students and other civic and social organizations grouping people from all walks of life in south Korea Thursday held a joint press conference to accuse the puppet group of traitors of falsifying the truth about the sinking of its warship.

A press release, which was read out at the conference, referred to the fact that the Lee Myung Bak group made public the "results of investigation" on the same day in which it dismissed the sinking of the warship "Cheonan" as "the north's provocation by armed attack."

The authorities are presenting fragments, which they claim found out in the waters of the incident, as decisive "evidence" but they cannot be related to the sinking of the warship in the light of their possible drifting to the waters at issue from other sea area by the tide, the thick rust formed on the fragments and the fact that the said waters are used for the firing drill of the south Korean army, the release said, and went on:

The authorities made themselves busy proving the "outside attack" only, far from making public the record of the ship's track and messages exchanged before and after the case, the statements of survivors, etc., which are the core and basic data for proving the truth about the case. They went to the length of cracking down persons and organizations which raised questions as to the case.

The release said that they could never accept the "results of investigation" in view of all the aspects including its contents, process, orientation and the sponsor organization.

The release charged that the announcement of the "results of investigation" is prompted by a foolish attempt of the authorities to flee from their responsibilities by diverting elsewhere the resentment of people critical of them and, at the same time, create the situation in favor of the conservative forces at the forthcoming "elections to local self-governing bodies."

It demanded the authorities open to the public the core data understandable to the people and opt for the total reinvestigation into the case.

 

[Marlowe]

There really isn’t much South Korea and the USA (or the rest of the world) can do about any provocation from North Korea as long as China still plays neutral (which isn’t really neutral, given who is always playing dirty). The only thing that can deter North Korea is military action.

Honestly, we’ve tried everything else.

And frankly military action is too big a gamble. Miscalculate North Korea’s response and good bye Seoul.

We also need to consider the possibility that this hasn’t been orchestrated by Kim Jong-Il. I mean, the regime actually apologized—let me repeat that, apologized—to the citizens of North Korea for the effects of the currency reform. I don’t recall too much apologizing while North Koreans were dying of starvation (which some still are . . . thanks KJI!). Does this mean the regime is aware their grip on power is slipping?

So why NKor would do this? Brinkmanship is one thing, but you’d need to be damn sure the South wouldn’t decide to retaliate to pull something this big. Back in the day, when NKor might have lasted for more than a few hours in a throw-down, they’d do crazy stuff like attacking the Blue House (home of the Korean president) or blow up airliners in the South. Things have been quiet since the 90s. And by quiet I mean mini-subs, commandos, and naval skirmishes. And now this?

Is this an attempt to get the hardliners to back Kim Jong-Un as heir apparent? Is this a hardliner plot to force NKor into a confrontation, give them a chance to remove KJI? Was it a mistake? Was it some kind of Dr. Strangelove individual statement? Is someone after their precious bodily fluids?

What is going on up there, and who is in charge?

 

[midget-boyd91]

The DPRK has announced that it has severed communications and diplomatic relations with the South and backed out of the non-aggression pact. The ROK has resumed psych-warfare using loudspeakers along the border, which the North have threatened to destroy with artillery. 
  The South has also d (re)designated the DPRK as their "main enemy." 
 
Fun times on the peninsula in the days and weeks ahead.


Oddball

 

[tomahawk6]

Nothing new here. As long as China prevents any real sanctions the North Koreans can do as they please - until they overreach.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

There really isn’t much South Korea and the USA (or the rest of the world) can do about any provocation from North Korea as long as China still plays neutral (which isn’t really neutral, given who is always playing dirty). The only thing that can deter North Korea is military action.

Honestly, we’ve tried everything else.

And frankly military action is too big a gamble. Miscalculate North Korea’s response and good bye Seoul.

We also need to consider the possibility that this hasn’t been orchestrated by Kim Jong-Il. I mean, the regime actually apologized—let me repeat that, apologized—to the citizens of North Korea for the effects of the currency reform. I don’t recall too much apologizing while North Koreans were dying of starvation (which some still are . . . thanks KJI!). Does this mean the regime is aware their grip on power is slipping?

So why NKor would do this? Brinkmanship is one thing, but you’d need to be damn sure the South wouldn’t decide to retaliate to pull something this big. Back in the day, when NKor might have lasted for more than a few hours in a throw-down, they’d do crazy stuff like attacking the Blue House (home of the Korean president) or blow up airliners in the South. Things have been quiet since the 90s. And by quiet I mean mini-subs, commandos, and naval skirmishes. And now this?

Is this an attempt to get the hardliners to back Kim Jong-Un as heir apparent? Is this a hardliner plot to force NKor into a confrontation, give them a chance to remove KJI? Was it a mistake? Was it some kind of Dr. Strangelove individual statement? Is someone after their precious bodily fluids?

What is going on up there, and who is in charge?

I suspect the investigation is about convincing China that their nutbar really did this, which to the Chinese mind would require a heavy handed response. I suspect the Chinese have or will shortly tell SOK and the US to what level of a response they are com foratable with. None of this will be public.

As for shelling Seoul I think most of the NK leadership knows that it would be the end of them. I suspect the NK without major support from China would not last more than a Month against combined SOK/US forces once they begin to move North. They could inflict a lot of damage in that time however. An attack on Seoul would not have China's consent, stirring the bee's nest that much would not serve them at all. If it happened i would expect China to close it's borders, prepare an army there and the US & China would be busy talking to each other to ensure there was no misunderstanding when the troops get close.
I would expect a land thrust would take place up the West coast as far as Sinsang and then turn west to Pyongyang to keep the US/SOK and Chinese armies far apart. Plus it means the US can resupply by sea. Once the intial defenses are breached I doubt the NK army could stand against the US and if they did they would be bypassed and destroyed on the flanks. the US/SOK would have to guard against overextending themselves though as mass suicide attacks could be possible.

 

[wannabe SF member]

I suspect the investigation is about convincing China that their nutbar really did this, which to the Chinese mind would require a heavy handed response. I suspect the Chinese have or will shortly tell SOK and the US to what level of a response they are com foratable with. None of this will be public.

As for shelling Seoul I think most of the NK leadership knows that it would be the end of them. I suspect the NK without major support from China would not last more than a Month against combined SOK/US forces once they begin to move North. They could inflict a lot of damage in that time however. An attack on Seoul would not have China's consent, stirring the bee's nest that much would not serve them at all. If it happened i would expect China to close it's borders, prepare an army there and the US & China would be busy talking to each other to ensure there was no misunderstanding when the troops get close.
I would expect a land thrust would take place up the West coast as far as Sinsang and then turn west to Pyongyang to keep the US/SOK and Chinese armies far apart. Plus it means the US can resupply by sea. Once the intial defenses are breached I doubt the NK army could stand against the US and if they did they would be bypassed and destroyed on the flanks. the US/SOK would have to guard against overextending themselves though as mass suicide attacks could be possible.

Just food for thought: Do you think that Canada would get to play any part in this "Korea war II" scenario?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

An excellent question, it would be interesting to see how the current opposition would support their reasons to say no, since we have death camps, starvation, nuke smuggling, etc,etc. Even if the will was there, I doubt Canada could meaningfully respond. Pretty much all of our land combat power is tied up in Afghanistan or supporting that. What I could see is Canada providing it’s newly rebuilt CF-18’s and a few ships from the West Coast. Unless they come up with a quick fix for the torpedo system, I afraid our subs won’t be able to do much. In a perfect world as NK start going nuts, Western and concerned Central/SE Asian Countries start moving troops and equipment into southern SK as a sign of solidarity and determination. I wonder if India and Turkey would be interested? I certainly don’t see another UN force like the last time. China would more than likely veto any such thing.

A question for the more strategic types out there. If you were going to attack and destroy NK how would you invade? I looked at Google and felt that a Eastern Seaboard attack would have the benefit of being as far from China as possible. Keeping near the coast means that the army could seize small ports and resupply that way. Go as far North as Sansing, turn west to move on the capital. The advantage of this is the eastern approaches are likely the least protected.
The Downside is the eastern portion is quite mountainous, coastline is somewhat shallow and likely heavily defended. The route is much longer than a Northern push up the west side. Resulting in a long logistical tail that has to be protected.
I suspect that most of the NK army would quickly become static as their logistical system could not cope with a rapidly changing situation. I doubt the average army unit has enough rations or fuel for any sustained moves, plus the inertia created by years of absolute authority would paralyze units once comms went down. I can’t independent commanders doing well in their current command structure. 

 

[Marlowe]

I suspect the investigation is about convincing China that their nutbar really did this, which to the Chinese mind would require a heavy handed response. I suspect the Chinese have or will shortly tell SOK and the US to what level of a response they are com foratable with. None of this will be public.

I would argue that the investigation was for everyone. South Korea wants to dot all the 'i's and cross all the 't's so that if push does come to shove, it has its butt covered. It is looking to go to the UN with definitive proof, not vague accusations.

As for shelling Seoul I think most of the NK leadership knows that it would be the end of them.

The shelling of Seoul is the first blast on the trumpet. If it happens, it is war, and the NK leadership knows very well where that road leads. If they didn't have big brother China to hide behind, they wouldn't have even pushed it this far. Shelling Seoul isn't going to be provocation, it's going to be Pearl Harbour.

I suspect the NK without major support from China would not last more than a Month against combined SOK/US forces once they begin to move North.

A month? There might be fighting for a month, but that would be partisans and werewolves (in the sense of the Nazi squads, not Larry Talbot). In the late 90s, the estimate was that NKor had no more than a few days of fuel. After a few days, unless NK liberated a sizable amount of fuel, they'd be a horse and buggy army.

Now, where'd I leave those Brown Besses? 

 

[vonGarvin]

A question for the more strategic types out there. If you were going to attack and destroy NK how would you invade?

You suppose that to attack and destroy NK you would have to invade.  To attack and destroy NK, me, personally, I would nuke it.  All airbursts, to minimise the effects of radiological fallout.  I would target logistical nodes as a primary set of targets.  This would minimise pers casualties, and then render the north incapable of surviving as a society for longer than say a week.  They would be unable to launch on the south, and the effect over in China would be minimal.

But this is probably why I am not leading the attack on NK.  Trust me, though, the political stink from China would be all but over in a few months.

 

[Edward Campbell]

If there is going to be an invasion of North Korea my guess is that it will come from the North, across the Yalu River and that the PLA will drive very quickly down the Western lowlands to Pyongyang and to the Inter-Korean Border. I would also guess that a small Chinese force will arrive, just as quickly, in Rason, in the far North East, in the China/Russia/North Korea border area, to remind the Russians that mischief making is not welcome.

China does not want a war on the Korean peninsula; it would prefer that Korea is reunified without any US presence or interference.

 

[CougarKing]

If there is going to be an invasion of North Korea my guess is that it will come from the North, across the Yalu River and that the PLA will drive very quickly down the Western lowlands to Pyongyang and to the Inter-Korean Border. I would also guess that a small Chinese force will arrive, just as quickly, in Rason, in the far North East, in the China/Russia/North Korea border area, to remind the Russians that mischief making is not welcome.

China does not want a war on the Korean peninsula; it would prefer that Korea is reunified without any US presence or interference.

It seems the North Korea are aware of the threat of invasion from their Cold War-era ally and neighbour:

(reposted from another forum)

NK reportedly bulking NK/China border
rfa.org (in Korean section) reports NK has reinforced NK border guard units on NK/China border with heavy weapons units such as 82mm mortar/Recoilless rifles. NK also relocated truck-mounted 122 mm multiple rocket launcher (BM-21 Grad) units to NK/China border.

It's unusual this is happening as the NK border guard units on NK/China border is usually armed with rifles to stop NK people from fleeing NK.

China and South Korea already have a huge amount of trade between each other, in spite of ideological differences (the same goes for trade between China and Taiwan); just look at all the South Korean companies doing business in China and all the S.Korean students learning Mandarin at language schools there. Therefore a unified Korea under the ROK would have tremendous economic benefits for them especially if Chinese firms get to partake in the reconstruction efforts; in spite of their past Cold-war shared interests, the China of today only maintains a nominal relationship with its former protege state and sees the DPRK as more of a liability than an ally.

The "Shanghai clique" (which includes Pres. Hu Jintao, and Wu Bangguo as well as others the CCP's Shanghai branch that then-Pres. Jiang Zhemin brought to Beijing with him in the 1990s) which has been steering Politburo Standing Committee since the 1990s/Jiang years cares more about ensuring China's continued prosperity and thus are paranoid about any threat to economic stability in the region- whether external or internal.

Thus, China does not care about other communist countries; they invaded Vietnam in 1979, although that invasion force was later withdrawn. That was an example of how they act more in their own interests than for any so-called outdated "Cold-War-era commie solidarity" against democracy. And this same thing might just happen to North Korea if they continue on this path of provocative brinksmanship with its neighbours.

Unlike the 1979 Chinese invasion of Vietnam however, which saw the PLA suffer as many as 20,000 casualties against the battle-hardened Vietnamese Army, invading North Korea may be an opportunity for the PLA to demonstrate just how far they've taken implementing the doctrine of "People's War under modern conditions" since it was first put forward during the Deng years. That is, if the reforms from that doctrine have really made the PLA capable of fighting a modern combined-arms conflict.

Another question that comes to mind is whether the North Korean Army, with its mostly aging equipment, could stand up to the refurbished PLA, even with static defences on both land borders (probably much more in depth at the DMZ than at the Yalu river) that they've had time to prepare?

------------------------------------------------------------

Plus, another update:

Reuters link

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's navy staged anti-submarine drills on Thursday in tense waters bordering North Korea amid signs that China, under pressure from regional powers, is reviewing ties with the isolated communist state.


The naval exercise is aimed at better detecting intrusions by North Korean submarines after a team of investigators, including experts from the United States and Sweden, accused the North of firing a torpedo that sank a South Korean warship, killing 46.


The drills, which also come after the South's military upgraded its alert level, are likely to further anger Pyongyang, which has already cuts most ties with Seoul after it sanctioned the hermit state for sinking the Cheonan corvette.


The North has threatened to shut the last road link with the South if Seoul resumes loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts across their heavily armed border. It has warned of war if the South went ahead with sanctions announced this week.

(...)

 

 

 

[sean m]

If war does happen, hopefully it does not but if.. This could have a huge impact on the whole region of Asia even strect south- south west to mynamar (Burma). The North Koreans are the major ally of this nation, and both need each others support in numours sectors. If there is war and North Korea loses, this will hugely impact Mynamar since they will not have a major ally. I hope this would then lead to the nations of the world to force Burma to adopt a democratic system or face the consequences.

 

[Neolithium]

If war does happen, hopefully it does not but if.. This could have a huge impact on the whole region of Asia even strect south- south west to mynamar (Burma). The North Koreans are the major ally of this nation, and both need each others support in numours sectors. If there is war and North Korea loses, this will hugely impact Mynamar since they will not have a major ally. I hope this would then lead to the nations of the world to force Burma to adopt a democratic system or face the consequences.

It will not "hugely" impact the Burma - while Western Nations have banned investments, import bans and arms embargos there are many Asian nations which have plenty of wealth that continue to trade uninterrupted with them.  I can't find the article at the moment, but the biggest contributions to the Burmese economy come from China and India, North Korea has trade relations but the impact they have on their coffers could be likened to a mouse fart in a hurricane. The DPRK of course has done a lot more prick-waving than in past decades, but I'm not ready to underestimate Beijing being quick to slap their Fearless Leader upside the head so fast he wouldn't know East from West.

 

[sean m]

You're right , sorry I forgot about India. You are also right that India and China are more important allies as well. I think the west would have better luck trying to get india to stop having relations with the country. Plus losing North Korea as an ally would still have a big impact, more than you say

It will not "hugely" impact the Burma - while Western Nations have banned investments, import bans and arms embargos there are many Asian nations which have plenty of wealth that continue to trade uninterrupted with them.  I can't find the article at the moment, but the biggest contributions to the Burmese economy come from China and India, North Korea has trade relations but the impact they have on their coffers could be likened to a mouse fart in a hurricane. The DPRK of course has done a lot more prick-waving than in past decades, but I'm not ready to underestimate Beijing being quick to slap their Fearless Leader upside the head so fast he wouldn't know East from West.

 

[1feral1]

If war does happen, hopefully it does not but if.. This could have a huge impact on the whole region of Asia even strect south- south west to mynamar (Burma). The North Koreans are the major ally of this nation, and both need each others support in numours sectors. If there is war and North Korea loses, this will hugely impact Mynamar since they will not have a major ally. I hope this would then lead to the nations of the world to force Burma to adopt a democratic system or face the consequences.

Whatever you're smoking, you should patent it.

op:

OWDU

 

[sean m]

I dont smoke it, I snort it.

VERBAL WARNING

YOU LOSE SIR

GOOD DAY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDEdKzAZgko&feature=related

Whatever you're smoking, you should patent it.

op:

OWDU

 

[sean m]

I am sorry I was trying to be funny, I don't think it worke. My apologese.

I dont smoke it, I snort it.

VERBAL WARNING

YOU LOSE SIR

GOOD DAY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDEdKzAZgko&feature=related

 

[1feral1]

Where does that youtube link come into play with DPRK/ROK issues? That made no sense whatsoever.

I don't think 'engrish' is your first language.

:worms:

EDITs to add - Dude, are you giving me a verbal?? And yelling too match?

shakes head

OWDU

 

[vonGarvin]

I am sorry I was trying to be funny, I don't think it worke. My apologese.

I note that you are from Montréal.  Are you francophone?  If so, your posting in your second language may be more of a hindrance that you think it may be.

(as Mentor)
Technoviking

 

[Neolithium]

Where does that youtube link come into play with DPNK/ROK issues? That made no sense whatsoever.

I don't think 'engrish' is your first language.

:worms:

If you prefer a youtube link that relates to Kim Jong Il and the DPRK, this should make you smile!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_YDXvAaWpQ