North Korea (Superthread)

[CougarKing]

So much for the peace treaty they were discussing last week.    :

Associated Press article

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korean leader Kim Jong Il said his country must bolster its armed forces, state media reported Sunday, two days after his regime warned it was prepared to launch a war against South Korea if necessary.
(...)

On Sunday, the North's official Korean Central News Agency said Kim had inspected a joint army, navy and air force drill that demonstrated the country's "merciless striking power" against anyone trying to infringe on its territory.

(...)
The report did not say when or where the joint drill took place.

Kim routinely visits military units and inspects their training to bolster his "songun," or "military-first," policy that rewards the 1.2 million-member armed forces — the backbone of his authoritarian rule of the country's 24 million people. He often calls for a stronger military during the visits.

(...)

 

[CougarKing]

It's about time the South Koreans put their money (or in this case, their forces) where the defence minister's mouth was.

Associated Press article link

SEOUL, South Korea – South Korea's defense chief called Wednesday for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea if there is a clear indication the country is preparing a nuclear attack.

The comments came as the two sides opened a second day of talks on further developing their joint industrial complex in the North, and were likely to draw an angry reaction from Pyongyang, which recently issued its own threat to break off dialogue with Seoul and attack.

South Korea should "immediately launch a strike" on the North if there is a clear intention of a pending nuclear attack, Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said at a seminar in Seoul.

Kim made similar remarks in 2008 when he was chairman of South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, prompting North Korea to threaten South Korea with destruction.

The North, which conducted underground nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, claims its nuclear weapons are not for use against South Korea, but rather are a security guarantee against what it claims is U.S. hostility.

Despite the rhetoric from both sides, officials held follow-up discussions Wednesday on the industrial complex in the North's border city of Kaesong, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry. It did not provide further details.
The South Korean delegation was scheduled to return home later Wednesday, said Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung.

On Tuesday, they met for nearly four hours to assess their joint tour of industrial parks in China and Vietnam undertaken in December.

Chun had described the talks as taking place "in a serious and practical atmosphere."

Seoul stressed the need for a quick and easy system for border crossings and customs clearance for South Koreans who travel to and from the industrial park, Chun said, in an apparent call on the North to improve the system.

The North said their recent surveys in China and Vietnam offered an opportunity to revitalize the complex, Chun said.

Kaesong, which combines South Korean capital and technology with cheap North Korean labor, is the most prominent symbol of inter-Korean cooperation. About 110 South Korean factories employ some 42,000 North Korean workers.
The complex came under a cloud in late 2008, however, when North Korea tightened restrictions on border crossings amid growing tensions between the two countries.

This week's talks came just days after Pyongyang threatened to launch a "sacred nationwide retaliatory battle" and vowed to cease all communication with the South following reports of a South Korean contingency plan to handle any unrest in the isolated North.

Meanwhile, South Korea's top nuclear envoy Wi Sung-lac left for the U.S. on Wednesday for talks with Stephen Bosworth, the special U.S. envoy to North Korea, and other U.S. officials on the North's nuclear programs, according to the Foreign Ministry.

The trip comes as North Korea has recently made repeated demands that international sanctions be lifted before it will return to stalled negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear weapons programs.

(...)

 

[CougarKing]

Just another border "skirmish"?

Associated Press link

SEOUL, South Korea – North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire along their disputed western sea border on Wednesday, two days after the North designated no-sail zones in the area, the military and news reports said.

North Korea fired several rounds of land-based artillery off its coast, an officer at the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul said. The officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of department policy, said no causalities or damage were immediately reported.

South Korea, in response, immediately fired warning shots from a marine base on an island near the sea border, according to Seoul's Yonhap news agency.

Yonhap, citing an unidentified military official, said both Koreas fired into the air.

South Korea's YTN television network carried a similar report on the exchange of fire.
(...)

 

[old medic]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60R1RS20100128

North Korea fires artillery again toward South

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea fired several artillery rounds on Thursday in the direction of a South Korean island off the peninsula, a second day of shooting near a disputed sea border that has been the site of deadly clashes in the past.

Rounds landed on the North's side of the disputed maritime border off the west coast of the rival states, a Defense Ministry official said. The South did not return fire.

Some analysts said the North may be trying to provoke tension with U.S. military ally South Korea to drive home its demand for talks with Washington to reach a peace treaty to replace the armistice that halted the 1950-53 Korean War.

The two Koreas remain technically at war and share one of the world's most militarized borders.

North Korea has declared a no-sail zone in the Yellow Sea waters for two months ending in late March, a sign it might be preparing to fire artillery or test launch missiles.

"They were firing at their side of the border and unlike yesterday we did not have clear visual confirmation," the defense official said asking not to be named.

The mercurial North, which has made war threats against the South in recent weeks, has also agreed to Seoul's calls for dialogue on the operations of a joint industrial park that provides the socialist state with hard cash.

Separately on Thursday, the North said it had captured an American who was trespassing in its northern region that borders China. In the past Pyongyang has used foreign detainees as bargaining chips.

It already holds another American, activist Robert Park, who was caught at the border last month. He said beforehand he was crossing to raise awareness about the North's human rights abuses.

Clashes between the neighbors have been contained in recent years with impact on financial markets negligible or short-lived, but analysts said the North could further escalate tension by shooting across the sea border or firing short-range missiles.

North Korea fired about 100 artillery rounds on Wednesday and threatened to fire more as a part of a military drill. South Korea returned fire with warning shots and said the North's move was a cause for grave concern while urging Pyongyang to stop.

South Korea's won was down slightly after the initial reports of the firing. The main stock index was muted.

North Korea has more than 10,000 pieces of artillery aimed at the wealthy South and which could in a matter of hours destroy much of the capital Seoul, 25 miles from the border.

The firing came when President Lee Myung-bak was traveling to Davos in Switzerland for the World Economic Forum after a state visit to India.

The latest clash comes amid signals from Pyongyang it was ready to return after a year-long boycott to six-country talks on ending its atomic arms programme.

Earlier this week Pyongyang accused the South of declaring war by saying it would launch a pre-emptive strike if it had clear signs the North was preparing a nuclear attack.

 

[a_majoor]

Is this really how North Koreans think? If true, it is really worrying:

http://www.slate.com/id/2243112/

A Nation of Racist Dwarfs
Kim Jong-il's regime is even weirder and more despicable than you thought.
By Christopher Hitchens
Posted Monday, Feb. 1, 2010, at 10:01 AM ET

Visiting North Korea some years ago, I was lucky to have a fairly genial "minder" whom I'll call Mr. Chae. He guided me patiently around the ruined and starving country, explaining things away by means of a sort of denial mechanism and never seeming to lose interest in the gargantuan monuments to the world's most hysterical and operatic leader-cult.

One evening, as we tried to dine on some gristly bits of duck, he mentioned yet another reason why the day should not long be postponed when the whole peninsula was united under the beaming rule of the Dear Leader. The people of South Korea, he pointed out, were becoming mongrelized. They wedded foreigners—even black American soldiers, or so he'd heard to his evident disgust—and were losing their purity and distinction. Not for Mr. Chae the charm of the ethnic mosaic, but rather a rigid and unpolluted uniformity.

I was struck at the time by how matter-of-factly he said this, as if he took it for granted that I would find it uncontroversial. And I did briefly wonder whether this form of totalitarianism, too (because nothing is more "total" than racist nationalism), was part of the pitch made to its subjects by the North Korean state. But I was preoccupied, as are most of the country's few visitors, by the more imposing and exotic forms of totalitarianism on offer: by the giant mausoleums and parades that seemed to fuse classical Stalinism with a contorted form of the deferential, patriarchal Confucian ethos.

Karl Marx in his Eighteenth Brumaire wrote that those trying to master a new language always begin by translating it back into the tongue they already know. And I was limiting myself (and ill-serving my readers) in using the pre-existing imagery of Stalinism and Eastern deference. I have recently donned the bifocals provided by B.R. Myers in his electrifying new book The Cleanest Race: How North Koreans See Themselves and Why It Matters, and I understand now that I got the picture either upside down or inside out. The whole idea of communism is dead in North Korea, and its most recent "Constitution," "ratified" last April, has dropped all mention of the word. The analogies to Confucianism are glib, and such parallels with it as can be drawn are intended by the regime only for the consumption of outsiders. Myers makes a persuasive case that we should instead regard the Kim Jong-il system as a phenomenon of the very extreme and pathological right. It is based on totalitarian "military first" mobilization, is maintained by slave labor, and instills an ideology of the most unapologetic racism and xenophobia.

These conclusions of his, in a finely argued and brilliantly written book, carry the worrisome implication that the propaganda of the regime may actually mean exactly what it says, which in turn would mean that peace and disarmament negotiations with it are a waste of time—and perhaps a dangerous waste at that.

Consider: Even in the days of communism, there were reports from Eastern Bloc and Cuban diplomats about the paranoid character of the system (which had no concept of deterrence and told its own people that it had signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty in bad faith) and also about its intense hatred of foreigners. A black Cuban diplomat was almost lynched when he tried to show his family the sights of Pyongyang. North Korean women who return pregnant from China—the regime's main ally and protector—are forced to submit to abortions. Wall posters and banners depicting all Japanese as barbarians are only equaled by the ways in which Americans are caricatured as hook-nosed monsters. (The illustrations in this book are an education in themselves.) The United States and its partners make up in aid for the huge shortfall in North Korea's food production, but there is not a hint of acknowledgement of this by the authorities, who tell their captive subjects that the bags of grain stenciled with the Stars and Stripes are tribute paid by a frightened America to the Dear Leader.

Myers also points out that many of the slogans employed and displayed by the North Korean state are borrowed directly—this really does count as some kind of irony—from the kamikaze ideology of Japanese imperialism. Every child is told every day of the wonderful possibility of death by immolation in the service of the motherland and taught not to fear the idea of war, not even a nuclear one.

The regime cannot rule by terror alone, and now all it has left is its race-based military ideology. Small wonder that each "negotiation" with it is more humiliating than the previous one. As Myers points out, we cannot expect it to bargain away its very raison d'etre.

All of us who scrutinize North Korean affairs are preoccupied with one question. Do these slaves really love their chains? The conundrum has several obscene corollaries. The people of that tiny and nightmarish state are not, of course, allowed to make comparisons with the lives of others, and if they complain or offend, they are shunted off to camps that—to judge by the standard of care and nutrition in the "wider" society—must be a living hell excusable only by the brevity of its duration. But race arrogance and nationalist hysteria are powerful cements for the most odious systems, as Europeans and Americans have good reason to remember. Even in South Korea there are those who feel the Kim Jong-il regime, under which they themselves could not live for a single day, to be somehow more "authentically" Korean.

Here are the two most shattering facts about North Korea. First, when viewed by satellite photography at night, it is an area of unrelieved darkness. Barely a scintilla of light is visible even in the capital city. (See this famous photograph.) Second, a North Korean is on average six inches shorter than a South Korean. You may care to imagine how much surplus value has been wrung out of such a slave, and for how long, in order to feed and sustain the militarized crime family that completely owns both the country and its people.

But this is what proves Myers right. Unlike previous racist dictatorships, the North Korean one has actually succeeded in producing a sort of new species. Starving and stunted dwarves, living in the dark, kept in perpetual ignorance and fear, brainwashed into the hatred of others, regimented and coerced and inculcated with a death cult: This horror show is in our future, and is so ghastly that our own darling leaders dare not face it and can only peep through their fingers at what is coming.

 

[CougarKing]

China uses its economic power to prod N.Korea to get back to talks:

Canadian Press link

SEOUL, South Korea - China plans to invest billions of dollars in North Korea in an apparent effort to prod the impoverished country to rejoin international nuclear disarmament talks, a news report said Monday.


The news came one week after North Korean leader Kim Jong Il told a visiting high-level envoy from Beijing that he was committed to a nuclear-free Korea. Kim subsequently dispatched his top nuclear envoy to Beijing for talks on the resumption of six-nation negotiations on ending its nuclear program in return for aid.


Several state-run Chinese banks and other multinational companies neared an agreement to invest about $10 billion to build railroads, harbours and houses in North Korea following their negotiations with Pyongyang's official Korea Taepung International Investment Group, according to Seoul's Yonhap news agency.


More than 60 per cent of the $10 billion investment would come from the Chinese banks, Yonhap reported citing an unidentified source it described as knowledgeable about the situation at the North Korean investment agency.


(...)

 

[CANADIAN F0RCES]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,588342,00.html



SEOUL, South Korea —  North Korea's army said Monday it is ready to "blow up" South Korea and the U.S., hours after the allies kicked off annual military drills that Pyongyang has slammed as a rehearsal for attack.

South Korea and the U.S. — which normally dismiss such threats as rhetoric — began 11 days of drills across South Korea on Monday morning to rehearse how the U.S. would deploy in time of emergency on the Korean peninsula.

The U.S. and South Korea argue the drills — which include live firing by U.S. Marines, aerial attack drills and urban warfare training — are purely defensive. North Korea claims they amount to attack preparations and has demanded they be canceled.

The North's People's Army issued a statement Monday, warning the drills created a tense situation and that its troops are "fully ready" to "blow up" the allies once the order is issued.

The North also put all its soldiers and reservists on high alert to "mercilessly crush the aggressors" should they encroach upon the North's territory even slightly, said the statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

The communist country has issued similar rhetoric in the days leading up the drills. On Sunday, it said it would bolster its nuclear capability and break off dialogue with the U.S. in response to the drills.

South Korea's military has been closely monitoring Pyongyang's maneuvers but hasn't seen any signs of suspicious activities by North Korean troops, Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff said earlier Monday.

"We see it as (North Korea's) stereotype denouncement," Defense Ministry spokesman Won Tae-jae told reporters.

About 20 anti-U.S. activists held a peaceful protest near a joint drill command center south of Seoul on Monday, chanting slogans such as "Stop war rehearsal."

About 18,000 American soldiers and an undisclosed number of South Korean troops are taking part in the drills, dubbed Key Resolve and Foal Eagle, according to U.S. and South Korean militaries.

The training comes as the U.S. and other regional powers are pushing for the North to rejoin international disarmament talks on ending its atomic weapons program in return for aid. The North quit the six-nation weapons talks and conducted its second nuclear test last year, drawing tighter U.N. sanctions.

The North has demanded a lifting of the sanctions and peace talks with the U.S. on formally ending the Korean War before it returns to the negotiations. The U.S. and South Korea have responded that the North must first return to the disarmament talks and make progress on denuclearization.

The U.S. stations about 28,500 troops in South Korea.






hmm, any input on this?

 

[CougarKing]

In addition to the possible latest skirmish between North and South Korean warships as described in this thread, this other update shows that the North Korean propaganda minister and his commissars are still smoking the same stuff:  :

Associated Press link

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea's military warned South Korea and the United States on Friday of "unprecedented nuclear strikes" over a report the two countries plan to prepare for possible instability in the totalitarian country.

The North routinely issues such warnings and officials in Seoul and Washington react calmly. Diplomats in South Korea and the U.S. instead have repeatedly called on Pyongyang to return to international negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear programs.
"Those who seek to bring down the system in the (North), whether they play a main role or a passive role, will fall victim to the unprecedented nuclear strikes of the invincible army," North Korea's military said in comments carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

The North, believed have enough weaponized plutonium for at least half a dozen atomic bombs, conducted its second atomic test last year, drawing tighter U.N. sanctions.

(...)

 

[CougarKing]

Another update in the wake of the sinking of that ROKN warship that rose tensions earlier this week:

Reuters link

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea warned on Monday of unpredictable disaster unless the South and the United States stop allowing tourists inside a heavily armed border buffer that is one of the most visited spots on the peninsula. The warming comes as tensions were raised on the peninsula after a South Korean navy ship sank on Friday. Early reports that the North may have been involved spooked markets but were later played down when Seoul said it was almost certain Pyongyang had no part in the incident.


North Korea has made no mention of the ship-sinking incident in its official media.


An unnamed army spokesman of the North's Korean People's Army said South Korea was engaged in "deliberate acts to turn the DMZ into theater of confrontation with the (North) and a site of psychological warfare" by allowing tours inside the border zone.

(...)

 

 

[CougarKing]

The South Korean President orders his military on full alert in the wake of the recent ROK warship sinking:

Associated Press link

SEOUL, South Korea – South Korea's president ordered the military on alert Tuesday for any moves by rival North Korea after the defense minister said last week's explosion and sinking of a South Korean ship may have been caused by a North Korean mine.
The blast ripped the 1,200-ton ship apart last Friday night during a routine patrol mission near Baengnyeong Island, along the tense maritime border west of the Korean peninsula. Fifty-eight crew members, including the captain, were plucked to safety; 46 remain missing with dim prospects for finding any further survivors.

The Joint Chief of Staff said the exact cause was unclear, and U.S. and South Korean officials said there was no outward indication of North Korean involvement.

However, Defense Minister Kim Tae-young told lawmakers Monday that a floating mine dispatched from North Korea was one of several scenarios for the disaster. "Neither the government nor the defense ministry has ever said there was no possibility of North Korea's involvement," Kim said.
(...)

 

[CougarKing]

An update from the Associated Press:

Analysts say NKorea hinting at 3rd nuke test
Updated April 22, 2010 03:00 AM

SEOUL (AP) – North Korea may be preparing to carry out a third nuclear test, analysts and a high-ranking defector said yesterday, citing language in state media hinting of an impending crisis on the peninsula.

Speculation that communist North Korea might conduct another nuclear test, in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions, grew after the South Korean cable network YTN reported Tuesday that the North has been preparing since February to conduct a test in May or June. YTN cited an unidentified diplomatic source.

Tensions are high on the Korean peninsula in the wake of the deadly sinking of a South Korean navy ship near the maritime border with North Korea.

Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said he had no information to suggest preparations for a nuclear test were underway.

However, analysts and a former North Korean official said recent statements hint of preparations for another nuclear test.

(...)

 

[CougarKing]

So much for the South seeking retribution for the sinking of their warship, Cheonan, last month:

Wall Street Journal link

"Though the public favors punishing the North, there is little appetite for warlike action that would disrupt the South Korean economy or destabilize the North enough to require the South to take it over.

President Lee Myung-bak said last week he has no intention of invading the North. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Friday called for calm.

(...)

 

[a_majoor]

there is little appetite for warlike action that would disrupt the South Korean economy or destabilize the North enough to require the South to take it over.

Robert Kaplan wrote about this in the Atlantic, and pointed out that the projected costs of reconstituting the civil society and infrastructure of the DPRK after the fall was so horrendous that the ROK and United States are very hesitant to even move in that direction. The Japanese would be shut out of any meaningful role in the reunification for historical reasons, and China and Russia would both work to find ways to benefit at the expense of a tied down American/ROK nation building effort.

Greater Korea would probably discover the port and transport infrastructure of the Tumen River region have been absorbed by China or (long shot) Russia during the turmoil of reunification, and no doubt many other nasty surprises would be waiting for would be nation builders. On the other hand, "Downfall" is pretty much inevitable in brittle, authoritarian regimes, so someone, somewhere should be making plans.

 

[CougarKing]

Greater Korea would probably discover the port and transport infrastructure of the Tumen River region have been absorbed by China or (long shot) Russia during the turmoil of reunification,

Thucydides,
Speaking of a "Greater" or "United" Korea, did you read this other recent thread on the future possibility of a united Korea as a superpower?(link)

Also, wouldn't China's claim on such a region be shaky, considering part of historical Korea actually extends into what is now northeast China?  (And in spite of the fact that Korea was recognized as just another "tributary state" by Qing Dynasty-era China later on) And there are still many Chinese citizens of Korean descent within the northeast Chinese border regions.

Look at this map below showing the old kingdoms of Korea:

 

This map shows the real extent of the ethnic Korean nation, regardless of present-day national borders. Millions of more peninsular Koreans moved into China during the Japanese annexation of 1910 and even before.

 

[a_majoor]

I'm not sure how the people of Korean ancestry will factor in China's plans if/when the DPRK collapses, just another variable in the complex calculus. What is a bit disconcerting is the fact that no one seems to have a coordinated response (or even a unilateral response) plan in mind. Perhaps there is one under reaps, we can only hope:

http://the-diplomat.com/2010/05/12/get-ready-for-dprk-collapse/

Get Ready for DPRK Collapse
May 12, 2010

The Six-Party Talks are looking hopeless, says Minxin Pei. It’s time for policymakers to start planning for the worst. Now.
By Minxin Pei

The motives behind North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s ‘unofficial’ visit to China last week may not be that hard to decipher. Most analysts suspect he went to see his most important patron to seek more aid and, in all likelihood, his Chinese patrons would have thrown a bone or two to him to bribe him back to the increasingly meaningless Six-Party Talks.  But if the stakeholders in East Asia’s peace and stability focus their attention on whether China’s prodding will lead to a more fruitful outcome in dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme this time, they’re simply wasting their time.

Pyongyang’s record on this issue speaks for itself: North Korea has no intention of honouring its commitments to the Six-Party Talks or abandoning its nuclear capabilities.

Judging by recent developments inside North Korea, however, clinging on to its nukes may not actually help prolong Kim Jong-il’s regime. The country’s unfolding economic catastrophe has clearly taken a toll on the regime’s legitimacy and durability—only the most desperate governments in history have resorted to outright confiscation of its people’s money. Seasoned analysts have also reported rising popular resentment against Pyongyang. Thanks to the sanctions imposed by the United Nations and other efforts to weaken Kim Jong-il’s regime, North Korea has failed to blackmail the international community into supplying more economic assistance.

More importantly, the Kim Jong-il regime, which has become a classic family dictatorship, is about to face its most difficult test of survival: succession. Stricken by a stroke not too long ago, Kim Jong-il is in frail health and his hold on power is certain to weaken. He appears desperate to install his 27-year old son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor. Unfortunately for the Kim dynasty, this process is likely to end in failure. A review of transfers of power in modern family dictatorships (excluding traditional monarchies) shows that the chances of a successful succession from the first-generation dictator to his son are roughly one in four, and no grandson of a first-generation dictator has ever succeeded in taking over a regime and consolidating his power.

Of course, the Kim dynasty may set a precedent. But given the worsening economy, the inexperience of the putative successor and the unknown reliability of the Korean military and security forces in the event of Kim Jong-il’s death, the rest of East Asia should be prepared for a scenario of rapid collapse in North Korea.

What is most worrying about a possible North Korean collapse is that the key players in the region are not talking to each other, even informally, about such an eventuality. It’s almost certain that these powers—China, the United States, Japan, South Korea and, possibly, Russia—have all drawn up their own contingency plans for Pyongyang’s quick collapse. However, they’ve done nothing to explore a collective response to what is without doubt a geopolitical game-changer.

As a result, many crucial questions remain unanswered. For instance, how should the United States and South Korea react if China sends combat troops into North Korea to conduct ‘humanitarian assistance’ missions? In all likelihood, Beijing will be tempted to do so if millions of refugees start fleeing into China. Which country will take the lead in securing nuclear materials? How will China respond to the crossing of the 38th parallel by South Korean and US forces? Who will take the lead in reaching out to Pyongyang’s post-Kim regime? What will be the collective security architecture after the Korean peninsula is reunified?

These critical issues are deemed too sensitive for US, Chinese, Japanese and South Korean government officials to discuss. As a result, few are thinking about these difficult issues, let alone exploring workable solutions that could help avoid a possible conflict between China and the United States over a collapsing North Korea and construct an enduring peace after the departure of the Kim dynasty.

Given the lack of strategic trust among the key players in this volatile region, it’s probably a bad idea to count on government officials to have a sudden change of heart. Instead, a track-two approach, which consists of well-structured informal discussions and scenario planning among former government officials, academics and policy specialists, may be a first step forward. If nothing else, such privately sponsored efforts should put the most important and potentially most de-stabilizing issues on the table.

For Kim Jong-il’s Chinese hosts, even such a modest proposal may be anathema. But they would be in denial. All they need to do is to take a look at the photo of the sickly Kim and ask themselves a simple question: should we have a Plan B?

Minxin Pei is Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and adjunct senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment.

 

[Edward Campbell]

At a guess:

1. China is ready and able, on almost no notice to occupy the DPRK and manage it as a sort of (temporary) Autonomous Region, not quite like Tibet and Xinxiang which are integral parts of China but, rather, as something akin to a trusteeship.

2. China will aim to keep all the Koreans in Korea.

3. China can and will secure the DPRK nuclear programmes - civil and military.

4. US and South Korean troops will not cross the 38th parallel. China will not permit such an incursion and neither the US nor South Korea will want to risk offending China on this matter.

5. China will, quickly, open long term reunification talks with South Korea. The US will not be invited to participate.

6. China's long term aim is a reunified Korea which is friendly to China and 'free' of US 'occupation.'

My guess, anyway, worth what you are paying for it.

 

[GAP]

That is the most sound analysis I have read on the subject....simple, but concise, and VERY likely..

 

[GAP]

South Korea Gets Ready For Anything
Article Link

May 13, 2010: South Korea, alarmed at what appears to be the North Korean use of a Yu-3 type torpedo to sink one of their warships, has undertaken to reform their armed forces to better deal with tactics like this. North Korea officially denies having anything to do with the loss of the 1200 ton corvette Cheonan, but most North Koreans accept the fact that North Korea did the deed, and northerners are proud of that. Examination of the salvaged wreckage made it clear that it was an external explosion, using military grade explosives, that sank the ship and killed 46 sailors on March 26th. North Korea was believed to have done this avenge earlier skirmishes that led to the sinking of North Korean warships.

The reforms are meant to prepare South Korean forces to better deal with these North Korean tactics. This includes coping with the large force of commandos and small submarines North Korea has created. For decades, North Korea has been sending commandos and agents south, landing them from these small subs. North Korea has also assassinated South Korean officials and civilians in other countries. South Korea tolerated this until now, but the sinking of the Cheonan crossed a line, and the South Korean government wants to develop ways to strike back.

For the last decade, the South Korean military has been preparing to deal with collapse in the north. Last year, the government made public what many have suspected for several years now. If North Korea attacks, South Korea is prepared to go north. This is no surprise to those who have been observing the South Korean armed forces development after the end of the Cold War in 1991. During the same time, the North Korean armed forces have declined because of a bankrupt economy and no money for replacing obsolete equipment, or for training. Meanwhile, the booming economy in the south led to the growth of domestic arms industry, and the re-equipping the South Korean military with modern, and locally made, weapons.

Over the last two decades, South Korea has developed, and produced in large numbers, their own equivalents of the U.S. M-1 tank (the South Korean K-1 and K-2), the U.S. M-2 Infantry Fighting Vehicle (the South Korean K-21) and the U.S. M-109 self-propelled 155mm howitzer (the South Korean K-9), and much more. The South Koreans used the American equipment as models, and then built on that.

South Korea also manufactures an Aegis destroyer (the KDX III class), a new class of frigate (FFK) and a light fighter/trainer jet (the T-50). South Korea offers most of this new gear for export, at a substantial discount to what their U.S. equivalents would cost, and backs them up with the South Korean reputation of producing sturdy and reliable industrial goods (everything from large ships to tiny micro chips). This provided South Korea with a decisive military edge over its aggressive northern neighbor, North Korea.
More on link

 

[CougarKing]

Speaking of "anything"...


link

SEOUL, South Korea - Two North Korean naval boats briefly crossed the tense western sea border with South Korea in the first such violation since a South Korean warship sank in the area following a mysterious explosion in March, the South's military said Sunday.

A North Korean patrol boat sailed about 1.6 miles (2.8 kilometres) into the South-controlled waters on Saturday night but quickly retreated after a South Korean broadcast warning, according to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff.


In less than an hour, another North Korean patrol boat intruded across the border but returned to its waters after another warning broadcast and two shots from the South Korean vessel, a Joint Chiefs of Staff officer said on condition of anonymity citing department policy. There were no injuries reported, he added.


The Korean maritime border is not clearly marked, and violations by North Korean military and fishing boats are not unusual. But Saturday's incursion marks the North's first border violation since the 1,200-ton South Korean warship went down near the area on March 26, killing 46 South Korean sailors.


Seoul has not directly blamed North Korea for the sinking, and Pyongyang has denied involvement, but suspicion has focused on the North given its history of attacks. The two Koreas remain technically locked in a state of war because their three-year conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, in 1953. Their navies fought three bloody sea battles near the disputed sea border since 1999.


South Korea has said it will take stern action against anyone responsible for the sinking — one of its worst maritime disasters. The government was to announce the results of its investigation in the coming week.


On Sunday, Yonhap news agency reported that South Korean investigators have obtained unspecified evidence showing North Korea's involvement in the sinking. Yonhap citing an unidentified government source as saying South Korea's military was considering issuing an anti-North Korea statement after the investigation outcome is announced.


South Korea's Defence Ministry and Joint Chiefs of Staff said they could not confirm the report because the investigation was still under way.

(...)

 

 

[tomahawk6]

Here's a link to North Korea Econ Watch and other links. Good resource material.


http://www.nkeconwatch.com/

Military:
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/north-korea-military-resources/