October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds

[The Bread Guy]

Aaaaaaaaaaaand fingers crossed ....

Turkey has agreed to a five-day ceasefire in northeast Syria to allow for withdrawal of Kurdish forces, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said on Thursday after talks with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.

“Today the United States and Turkey have agreed to a ceasefire in Syria,” Pence told a news conference after more than four hours of talks at the presidential palace in Ankara.

More ...

US Vice President Mike Pence and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to a ceasefire in the military incursion into northeastern Syria. Pence was accompanied in Ankara by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and White House national security adviser Robert O'Brien.

"Today the United States and Turkey have agreed to a ceasefire in Syria," Pence said.

The initial ceasefire will last 120 hours to allow Kurdish forces to move away from Turkey's border and allow for negotiations toward a permanent end to the conflict.

Scheduled for just 10 minutes, the meeting between Pence and Erdogan lasted about an hour and a half. Pompeo and other officials were to hold talks with their Turkish counterparts. Erdogan initially refused to meet the US delegation, saying he would only speak to President Donald Trump, before backtracking ...

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Might be that the "invasion" is not so popular at home and this way he gets to maximise propaganda value for minimal causalities?

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Or was the deal "we just need to wipe out a certain cell first"?

 

[PPCLI Guy]

This is reportedly #POTUS45's letter from last week to Turkey's president (source:  NY Times White House corresponent)

I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.

... and I think you're being kind in your assessment.

Meanwhile, a bit more on the 13-point USA-TUR plan, via the USA Embassy in Turkey, attached (source)

Edited to add:  Also attached is the latest situation map from these guys.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.

It's fake news and not actually Trump.

If it really was Trump it would have been only 240 characters or less and sent over Twitter.

 

[brihard]

I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.

At least he’s not trying to fake it anymore.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.

I disagree. His letter has been pegged at the Grade 3 level. This shows that he's improving


“Is This Real?”: Trump Sends Third-Grade Reading-Level Letter to Erdoğan

Donald Trump has said or done something certifiably insane nearly every day of his presidency. And not like, “This guy’s a little kooky”-level insane, but full-on “Mr. President, put down the stapler and unhand the president of Finland”-level insane. But last week, apparently seeking to prove to the world that we ain’t seen nothing yet re: the depths of his mental instability, he wrote and reportedly proudly distributed the following letter to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, for all the world to see:

https://twitter.com/trish_regan/status/1184559361638748161

Each line of the letter contains an obvious Trumpism—talk of “deals,” reference to “tough guys”—but packaged together, in all its batshit glory, in an official letter to another world leader, it seemed unbelievable even for a guy who most people agree should’ve been placed under conservatorship some time ago. The immediate reaction from the media was “HOW IS THIS THING REAL,” and yet, according to the White House, it totally is! That means that the president of the United States sat down and either penned—or more likely dictated—a letter in which he told the president of Turkey, “Don’t be a tough guy,” “Don’t be a fool,” history “will look upon you forever as the devil if good things don’t happen,” and then, in what might be the absolute craziest way to end a piece of correspondence that references “slaughtering thousands of people,” signed off with: “I will call you later.”

It‘s the kind of thing that even Donald Trump Jr. will have to admit is a sign someone needs to place an emergency phone call to Dr. Bornstein, and that we assume has caused Ivanka to tell aides that “Daddy is resting and isn’t to be disturbed.”

Incredibly, the Erdoğan letter wasn’t the only example of Trump’s mental decline on Wednesday afternoon, which also saw the president lash out at Democrats like a machete-wielding madman on the subway and claim that he personally defeated ISIS:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/10/donald-trump-erdogan-letter

 

[garb811]

... and I think you're being kind in your assessment.

Meanwhile, a bit more on the 13-point USA-TUR plan, via the USA Embassy in Turkey, attached (source)

Edited to add:  Also attached is the latest situation map from these guys.

It's nice the US and Turkey have struck a deal that seems to give Turkey most of what it wants at no cost the US but they seem to be forgetting that the Kurds invited a couple other players to the table when Trump unilaterally walked away. They are going to have a say in all of this as well and I doubt it is going to fit into what the US and Turkey have agreed to.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... the Kurds invited a couple other players to the table when Trump unilaterally walked away. They are going to have a say in all of this as well and I doubt it is going to fit into what the US and Turkey have agreed to.

As they used to say on the parade square, wait for iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit ....

 

[The Bread Guy]

A bit of the latest ...

• "Fighting in Kurdish-held Syrian town despite cease-fire" (Associated Press)
• " Death toll rises as Syrian ceasefire fails" (Kurdish media)
• "Kurds accuse Turkish military of attacking civilians in Ras al-Ayn" (RUS state media)
• " Turkey accused of defying Syrian border ceasefire" (Deutsche Welle)
• "Turkish forces deny rescue, medical services entry to Ras al-Ayn — Kurdish agency" (RUS state media)
• "Turkish attacks against Serekaniye continue" (Kurdish media)
• "Turkish airstrikes continue on Syria’s Serekaniye despite ceasefire" (Kurdish media)
• " Despite a U.S.-brokered cease-fire agreement, fighting continued Friday in northeast Syria.   Loud bangs and gunfire could be heard, and smoke could be seen rising over the town of Ceylanpinar, a day after Turkey and the U.S. agreed to a five-day cease-fire in Turkey's offensive against Kurdish fighters …" (Voice of America)
• " Less than a day after reaching a deal for a pause in Turkey’s anti-terror push in northern Syria, reports of a clash between Turkish forces and YPG/PKK terrorists in the safe zone is nothing but disinformation, Turkey’s president said on Friday …" (Turkish media)

• "Turkey to continue Syria op if US not keep promises" (Turkish media)
• "Erdogan sees ‘no problem for Turkey’ if Syrian forces enter areas cleared of Kurdish militia" (RUS state media)

• " Hundreds of people fleeing the newly unstable situation in Syria crossed the border and are now in a detention camp in Iraq …" (USA National Public Radio)
• " Iraqi Kurds plea for emergency funding amidst Syrian refugee influx" (Kurdish media)

• " The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will not handover thousands of detained Islamic State (ISIS) militants and their families to any force, including the Syrian regime, commander of the force Mazloum Kobani Abdi said late Wednesday.  “The fate of Daesh [ISIS] detainees and families is in our hands. We arrested them, they are held by us and we will determine their fate,” …" (Kurdish media)

• "Syria: Damning evidence of war crimes and other violations by Turkish forces and their allies" (Amnesty International)

 

[The Bread Guy]

This commentary from the Federation of American Scientists ...

Should the U.S. Air Force withdraw the roughly 50 B61 nuclear bombs it stores at the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey? The question has come to a head after Turkey’s invasion of Syria, Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian leadership and deepening discord with NATO, Trump’s inability to manage U.S. security interests in Europe and the Middle East, and war-torn Syria only a few hundred miles from the largest U.S. nuclear weapons storage site in Europe.

According to The New York Times, State and Energy Department (?) officials last weekend quietly reviewed plans for evacuating the weapons from Incirlik. “Those weapons, one senior official said, were now essentially Erdogan’s hostages. To fly them out of Incirlik would be to mark the de facto end of the Turkish-American alliance. To keep them there, though, is to perpetuate a nuclear vulnerability that should have been eliminated years ago.”

That review is long overdue! [Actually, I’ve heard there have been several reviews and a lively internal debate since the 2016 coup attempt.] Some of us have been calling for withdrawal for years (see here and here), but officials have resisted saying it wasn’t as bad as it looked and that the deployment still served a purpose. They were wrong. And by waiting so long to act, the United States has painted itself into a corner where the choice between nuclear security and abandoning Turkey has become unnecessarily stark and urgent.

The situation is even more untenable because Incirlik in just a few years is scheduled to receive a large shipment of the new B61-12 guided nuclear bomb, which would be a recommitment to nuclear deployment in Turkey.

This year is the 60th anniversary of the first deployment of nuclear weapons to Turkey. It is time to bring them home ...

More detail & history of nukes in Turkey @ link.

 

[daftandbarmy]

This commentary from the Federation of American Scientists ...More detail & history of nukes in Turkey @ link.

This is an awesome cocktail party conversation killer, by the way, along the lines of:

Pretty Little (male or female) Things: 'Oh, isn't it horrible what Turkey is doing. We should kick them out of NATO and do other nasty things to them.'

Me, the Joy Killer: 'Well, there remains the inconvenient truth that they remain an important part of NATO's nuclear/other deterrent against Russia, and we have loads of our nukes based there.'

PL Things: 'Oh, er, uh, is that the time?'

 

[CBH99]

As you phase out the old B61 bombs and replace them with their newer, more modern versions - replace the actual bombs with duds.  Pretty much eliminate your security risk while maintaining your fake friendship, win/win.  Or something alone those lines - pretty sure the CIA has had a few brainstorming sessions about the above.

More than enough US nuclear weapons spread throughout Europe to use against Russia if the adults decide the world needs to end.  Not including UK nuclear forces, French, etc. Turkey isn't the ONLY place to launch from.  And if anybody would clamp down on US military movements inside a base used by US military forces, it would be Turkey. 


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/22738/turkish-lawyers-demand-raid-on-incirlik-air-base-and-arrest-of-u-s-military-personnel

 

[Good2Golf]

Maybe they’re already not real devices?

 

[CBH99]

Honestly wouldn't surprise me. 

Or if there are still real bombs there, drastically fewer than reported, mixed in with some duds/fakes.

 

[tomahawk6]

Russia is telling the Turks to withdraw from Syria. Also the US nukes are said to be safe but I would expect them to be moved elsewhere.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-unacceptable-turkish-incursion-113140175.html

Bombs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-turkey-dispute-raises-questions-183705345.html

 

[garb811]

Russia is telling the Turks to withdraw from Syria. Aloso the US nukes are said to be safe but I would expect them to be moved elsewhere.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-unacceptable-turkish-incursion-113140175.html

Bombs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-turkey-dispute-raises-questions-183705345.html

I guess Russia didn't get the memo about the Turkish Armed Forces being primarily responsible to enforce the safe zone the US and Turkey agreed to create, eh?  :not-again:

 

[CBH99]

The US & Turkey made an agreement that put the responsibility of the safe area in Turkey's hands...while completely ignoring the fact that the proposed safe area is INSIDE Syria's border.  An internationally recognized border of a recognized state.

Russia really is the power broker here.  On the one hand, they are Syria's ally.  They helped keep Assad in power, provided firepower & special forces to quell the civil war, and assisted his forces in a variety of ways to regain the upper hand in contested areas.  I'm not pro Assad by any means, but Russia has an active interest in keeping areas near it's territory stable, and under it's influence.

Russia is also Turkey's ally, having just recently sold Turkey the S-400 missile system and very likely providing Turkey with fighter jets in the near future.  The S-400 isn't operational yet, as there are still radars, training, and support systems to come online as of yet -- so far, it's just the launchers & accessories.  The S-400 isn't slated to be operational until next year.



So Russia has a pretty hefty influence in Syria, and they now have a pretty stable persuasive hand in Turkey also.  I don't think Russia cares all that much what Turkey & the US agreed to in terms of a safe area inside Syria, without Syria's consent. 

Also, it isn't just regular Turkish Armed Forces conducting professional military operations.  That would be one thing - a professional military conducting operations as per widely accepted ROE, guidelines, a NATO member, etc.  Instead, Ergoden has opted to use TSFA militias to do a big chunk of the fighting for him - which means it's yet another militia taking over the area from the one we were supporting, and not just a professional armed force.  That isn't necessarily in Russia's interest either.




I think, at the end of the day, this has really helped to expand Russia's influence both in Syria and Turkey, and both will now fall under Russia's influence and direction to an extent.  The final result, of this chapter anyway, will end up with an eventual quiet brokered & owed to Russia.  Conquered both without firing a shot.

 

[brihard]

The US & Turkey made an agreement that put the responsibility of the safe area in Turkey's hands...while completely ignoring the fact that the proposed safe area is INSIDE Syria's border.  An internationally recognized border of a recognized state.

Russia really is the power broker here.  On the one hand, they are Syria's ally.  They helped keep Assad in power, provided firepower & special forces to quell the civil war, and assisted his forces in a variety of ways to regain the upper hand in contested areas.  I'm not pro Assad by any means, but Russia has an active interest in keeping areas near it's territory stable, and under it's influence.

Russia is also Turkey's ally, having just recently sold Turkey the S-400 missile system and very likely providing Turkey with fighter jets in the near future.  The S-400 isn't operational yet, as there are still radars, training, and support systems to come online as of yet -- so far, it's just the launchers & accessories.  The S-400 isn't slated to be operational until next year.



So Russia has a pretty hefty influence in Syria, and they now have a pretty stable persuasive hand in Turkey also.  I don't think Russia cares all that much what Turkey & the US agreed to in terms of a safe area inside Syria, without Syria's consent. 

Also, it isn't just regular Turkish Armed Forces conducting professional military operations.  That would be one thing - a professional military conducting operations as per widely accepted ROE, guidelines, a NATO member, etc.  Instead, Ergoden has opted to use TSFA militias to do a big chunk of the fighting for him - which means it's yet another militia taking over the area from the one we were supporting, and not just a professional armed force.  That isn't necessarily in Russia's interest either.




I think, at the end of the day, this has really helped to expand Russia's influence both in Syria and Turkey, and both will now fall under Russia's influence and direction to an extent.  The final result, of this chapter anyway, will end up with an eventual quiet brokered & owed to Russia.  Conquered both without firing a shot.

That’s the problem with a major power electing a leader who can’t explain or spell ‘hegemony’.