Op IMPACT: CAF in the Iraq & Syria crisis

[The Bread Guy]

From the same article:

"The Canadian Armed Forces, which revealed this information in response to a question from The Globe and Mail..."
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"They could not sufficiently explain Thursday evening precisely why they have now decided to make the allegation public."

I think the other side of that question in green is "why didn't anyone say so earlier?"

And now, who gets the blame? ....

Defence Minister Jason Kenney says the military never told him Canadian fighter pilots had been accused of killing civilians when they bombed an Islamic State fighting position on Jan. 21.

It’s a startling admission from the Conservative minister because the Harper cabinet member is effectively saying the Forces kept him out of the loop.

Mr. Kenney, who is running for re-election in a Calgary riding, remains minister during the campaign under way now.

His chief spokesman, speaking to The Globe on Friday, said this week’s revelation was news to the Calgary MP. “The minister was not made aware of allegations of civilian casualties connected to RCAF strikes,” Daniel Proussalidis said of briefings provided by the Forces.

The spokesman said Mr. Kenney “was consistently briefed that there is no evidence to indicate that RCAF air strikes have resulted in civilian casualties.”

Late Friday evening the Forces acknowledged they did not tell Mr. Kenney, saying they told his predecessor, Rob Nicholson. A cabinet shuffle in early February brought about a change of ministers and the military said it saw no reason to loop in Mr. Kenney because they'd found no evidence to back up the allegation ....

 

[cupper]

Sooo…. What you are saying is that there is no there there?

That never happens!  :

 

[Tuan]

From the PM's office ....

Let’s just look at the Canadian approach in responding to ISIS threat in this operation. This summer the Canadian Prime Minister Harper was proposing to the parliament to extend and expand Canada’s military mission one more year particularly targeting Syria. However the opposition parties, both New Democrats and Liberals, are opposing this and suggesting that Canada should involve in humanitarian missions, such as helping to solve the refugee crisis and other aid work in Iraq and Syria.

IMHO, the opposition parties’ idea does have a long term strategic advantage and we could benefit from it down the road. First we have to isolate the insurgents/terrorists from the general populace. Let the refugees come out and settle them in other countries thereby showcasing the soft power of Canada/NATO rather than PM Harper’s hard power strategy which is bombing Iraq and Syria.

By weeding the insurgents out of legitimate refugees, we can eventually apply Mao Tse Tung’s theory that “insurgents are like fish in an ocean of people”. By separating the “ocean” of general populace from the insurgent “fish” we will be able to determine the survival of the enemy insurgents/terrorists.

Since it is Middle Eastern crisis the solution should be confined within Middle Eastern region. Therefore migrants should be resettled in countries such as Turkey, Jordan, Saudi or Egypt not Europe, given the ongoing migrant influx in the region. To deny access for would-be jihadists to infiltrate/exfiltrate other countries disguised as refugees, we can set up buffer zones.

Then there is a question of how should one separate the ocean of population from the insurgent fish?

Well, if we're able to win the hearts and minds of the general populace they will do the job for you, which is the core strategy of COIN doctrine. Yes, we have to win the hearts and minds of the people. That’s where a great nation’s soft power plays its part. Hard power is vital in order to safe guard a nation’s interest, however, when we confront an enemy of different faces we have to explore other options and tools to combat them by the means of non-military strategies.

Remember, according to Sun Tzu, the best way to win a war is without even fighting it. As such, eliminating the will to fight and destroying the spirit of the enemy’s potential to fight is also paramount. An ideology has to be fought with another set of ideologies, rather than by swords and guns; may it be a religious ideology, ethno-nationalist ideology or secessionist ideology.

What I am trying to say here is that: “Don’t use cannon to kill a mosquito….” – Confucius

 

[George Wallace]

Let’s just look at the Canadian approach in responding to ISIS threat in this operation. This summer the Canadian Prime Minister Harper was proposing to the parliament to extend and expand Canada’s military mission one more year particularly targeting Syria. However the opposition parties, both New Democrats and Liberals, are opposing this and suggesting that Canada should involve in humanitarian missions, such as helping to solve the refugee crisis and other aid work in Iraq and Syria.

IMHO, the opposition parties’ idea does have a long term strategic advantage and we could benefit from it down the road. First we have to isolate the insurgents/terrorists from the general populace. Let the refugees come out and settle them in other countries thereby showcasing the soft power of Canada/NATO rather than PM Harper’s hard power strategy which is bombing Iraq and Syria.

IMHO, the opposition parties have no idea how to deal with this situation.  They have no concept of how to stop the spread of this radical and despicable form of Islam.  Soft power is exactly what has brought us to this state.  Refugees are already flooding the EU, at a rate that the West is having difficulty in handling.  The financial burden these large numbers of refugees are placing on Western nations has yet to be faced.  The fact that terrorists being covertly inserted into Western nations is a major concern and a serious threat as there are NO actual means to identify who is or who is not a member of IS with 100% certainty. 

By weeding the insurgents out of legitimate refugees, we can eventually apply Mao Tse Tung’s theory that “insurgents are like fish in an ocean of people”. By separating the “ocean” of general populace from the insurgent “fish” we will be able to determine the survival of the enemy insurgents/terrorists.

As I said: no 100% solution to effectively identify insurgents with 100% certainty.

Since it is Middle Eastern crisis the solution should be confined within Middle Eastern region. Therefore migrants should be resettled in countries such as Turkey, Jordan, Saudi or Egypt not Europe, given the ongoing migrant influx in the region. To deny access for would-be jihadists to infiltrate/exfiltrate other countries disguised as refugees, we can set up buffer zones.

 

I would tend to agree, but those fleeing would probably tend not to, preferring to get as far away from the turmoil as possible, into one of the "richer" Western nations.  We don't see any of the refugees fleeing Northern Africa, fleeing South.  Nor do we see many refugees in South West Asia fleeing East into Pakistan, India, and other Asian nations. China has fairly much reinforced its presence on securing its Western borders.

 

[Tuan]

As I said: no 100% solution to effectively identify insurgents with 100% certainty.

What you think about imposing a buffer zone that Turkey is planning to do:

Will a Turkish border deal block IS recruits?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34060925

 

[George Wallace]

What you think about imposing a buffer zone that Turkey is planning to do:

Will a Turkish border deal block IS recruits?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34060925

There are buffer zones in many locations around the world.  All of them are band-aid solutions and have been infiltrated thousands of times. 

 

[Tuan]

There are buffer zones in many locations around the world.  All of them are band-aid solutions and have been infiltrated thousands of times.

Well, in May 2009 there was a similar situation in Northern Sri Lanka, where the LTTE, a terrorist organization was holding more than 300,000 Tamil civilians as mere human shield. When the Sri Lankan security forces tried to move in and cordon off the area the LTTE began to release and let the civilians pour into the cleared areas, including LTTE suicide bombers who blew themselves up and killed 19 soldiers in one single incident. Since then, the Sri Lankan military began setting up buffer zones and temporary displacement camps in the immediate vicinity and also with the civilian's help successfully weeded out the terrorists one by one. It is important to note that after this process, there was not a single incident of terrorist attack in the country as yet. All you got to do is "winning the the hearts and minds" of the general populace.

 

[Good2Golf]

...All you got to do is "winning the the hearts and minds" of the general populace.

Cool.  That would make an excellent slide in a PowerPoint briefing.

 

[Teager]

All you got to do is "winning the the hearts and minds" of the general populace.

What might win the hearts and minds of one group in the middle east could piss off another group. So many groups that have ongoing battles that go way back in history.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Cool.  That would make an excellent slide in a PowerPoint briefing.

Lol... it sounds like the intro slide to every briefing in Kandahar

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Let’s just look at the Canadian approach in responding to ISIS threat in this operation. This summer the Canadian Prime Minister Harper was proposing to the parliament to extend and expand Canada’s military mission one more year particularly targeting Syria.

Yes, the only way to win or hope to win the war against ISIS.

However the opposition parties, both New Democrats and Liberals, are opposing this and suggesting that Canada should involve in humanitarian missions, such as helping to solve the refugee crisis and other aid work in Iraq and Syria.

Yup, and that shows how little they know about how to do this type of business. 

IMHO, the opposition parties’ idea does have a long term strategic advantage and we could benefit from it down the road.

Great.  Let's hear how, and don't skip the details.

First we have to isolate the insurgents/terrorists from the general populace.

Fuckin' excellent!  Please detail out your plan on how to do this, how this type of thing works.

Let the refugees come out and settle them in other countries thereby showcasing the soft power of Canada/NATO rather than PM Harper’s hard power strategy which is bombing Iraq and Syria ISIS.

You're assuming the 'other countries' want these people, and you're assuming all of these people want 'out' as opposed to wanting a long-term solution that doesn't have them abandoning theirs homes and lives.

By weeding the insurgents out of legitimate refugees

Still really looking forward to your theory on how to do this!!!!

, we can eventually apply Mao Tse Tung’s theory that “insurgents are like fish in an ocean of people”. By separating the “ocean” of general populace from the insurgent “fish” we will be able to determine the survival of the enemy insurgents/terrorists.

??? 

Since it is Middle Eastern crisis the solution should be confined within Middle Eastern region. Therefore migrants should be resettled in countries such as Turkey, Jordan, Saudi or Egypt not Europe, given the ongoing migrant influx in the region.

Again you are assuming these countries want these people, these people want to go to these countries, etc.  This isn't moving Canadians from Cape Breton to mainland NS you are talking about. 

To deny access for would-be jihadists to infiltrate/exfiltrate other countries disguised as refugees, we can set up buffer zones.

Great!  Please explain how these will work!!

Then there is a question of how should one separate the ocean of population from the insurgent fish?

Well, if we're able to win the hearts and minds of the general populace they will do the job for you, which is the core strategy of COIN doctrine. Yes, we have to win the hearts and minds of the people. That’s where a great nation’s soft power plays its part. Hard power is vital in order to safe guard a nation’s interest, however, when we confront an enemy of different faces we have to explore other options and tools to combat them by the means of non-military strategies.

Remember, according to Sun Tzu, the best way to win a war is without even fighting it. As such, eliminating the will to fight and destroying the spirit of the enemy’s potential to fight is also paramount. An ideology has to be fought with another set of ideologies, rather than by swords and guns; may it be a religious ideology, ethno-nationalist ideology or secessionist ideology.

What I am trying to say here is that: “Don’t use cannon to kill a mosquito….” – Confucius

I don't think you really have a 'where the rubber meets the road' understanding of how this whole ISIS thing is going down in Iraq and Syria.  You are throwing ideas out that 'sound good' but are as simple as stopping the Atlantic tide from coming into the Bay of Fundy.  In short, I don't think you have a realistic schmick of the real problems or the real solutions.  Your post reminds me of that scene from Armageddon, when the dude that had WAYYY to much coffee was explaining how these solar wind sails would deploy, and...

 

[Sub_Guy]

Well, in May 2009 there was a similar situation in Northern Sri Lanka, where the LTTE, a terrorist organization was holding more than 300,000 Tamil civilians as mere human shield. When the Sri Lankan security forces tried to move in and cordon off the area the LTTE began to release and let the civilians pour into the cleared areas, including LTTE suicide bombers who blew themselves up and killed 19 soldiers in one single incident. Since then, the Sri Lankan military began setting up buffer zones and temporary displacement camps in the immediate vicinity and also with the civilian's help successfully weeded out the terrorists one by one. It is important to note that after this process, there was not a single incident of terrorist attack in the country as yet. All you got to do is "winning the the hearts and minds" of the general populace.

Completely different situation, you really have no idea what is going on over there, and it scares me because most people are fucking clueless as to what is going on (80% of the people that are participating in Op Impact have no clue either).  Trust me, the only way this ends is through force.  They have no interest in stopping and sitting on a piece of land, they want it all, and they won't stop. 

You want to win the hearts and minds of the general populace, you can start by flushing these pieces of shit down the toilet.

IMHO if the ISF doesn't discover a good set of testicles, this will never end without a significant boost on the ground from the MESF.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Completely different situation, you really have no idea what is going on over there, and it scares me because most people are ******* clueless as to what is going on (80% of the people that are participating in Op Impact have no clue either).  Trust me, the only way this ends is through force.  They have no interest in stopping and sitting on a piece of land, they want it all, and they won't stop. 

You want to win the hearts and minds of the general populace, you can start by flushing these pieces of crap down the toilet.

IMHO if the ISF doesn't discover a good set of testicles, this will never end without a significant boost on the ground from the MESF.

He also negates to mention that the conflict against the LTTE only ended after they were utterly defeated by the Sri Lankan Army. 

In order to end a war you actually need to fight.  The whole Sun Tzu "defeat your enemy without fighting" only works when shots haven't been fired, far past that point unfortunately.

 

[Tuan]

Alright, I assume you gentlemen are in fact fighting the war in Iraq and Syria while I am not. So I may be completely wrong because I wrote my mind here after spending some time on assessing open source intelligence (OSINT) in the ongoing counterterrorism operations in Iraq and Syria. Having said that I did play a part in obliterating terrorism in Sri Lanka and thought that I could share with you my experience. I know that some of you have already said that it is completely different situation, but just so you know, LTTE in Sri Lanka and ISIS in Middle East differ ideologically and objectively, however, as far as their modus operandi and tradecraft are concerned, they both have some similarities.

So this is what I had posted on a defense forum last year and I am reposting this again thinking that I don’t violate any forum rules here:

“While monitoring OSINT, I have noticed a pattern, in the Islamic State terrorists’ “modus operandi”, that of a spider. Spiders have eight legs and two body parts - a head region (cephalothorax) and an abdomen. Most spiders have toxic venom, which they use to kill their prey.

So if the international community wants to get rid of ISIS, hypothetically speaking, they have to get rid of the head region of ISIS, the “cephalothorax” of the spider, instead of fighting with its eight legs. What I was trying pinpoint is that, while ISIS's headquarters (cephalothorax) is located in Syria, their survival (abdomen) depends on how much area they control in Iraq. Thus before this ISIS "spider" transform into "multi-headed" and "multi-pronged" the international community has to get rid of them.

Of course, they will replace it with another head, so get rid of the other one too, then the next one and so on. All we need is accurate and effective tactical military intelligence collection. I feel that the international intelligence agencies have a bigger role to play, than just being the eyes and ears of any nation, with feet of clay, when faced with an enemy of many different faces. Recommendations for an appropriate tradecraft to achieve such a role are the need of the day. There is NO truth to search for, there is no absolute truth, and everything is subjective! But the kind of role intelligence play in deterrence is what paramount! And achieving A STATE OF GLOBAL DETERRENCE is what I consider the bottom line.

I shall explain how we could achieve a state of global deterrence in my next post.

 

[Tuan]

He also negates to mention that the conflict against the LTTE only ended after they were utterly defeated by the Sri Lankan Army. 

In order to end a war you actually need to fight.  The whole Sun Tzu "defeat your enemy without fighting" only works when shots haven't been fired, far past that point unfortunately.

Yes they were utterly defeated at the end but there was a strategic deception that the Sri Lankan military orchestrated that you fail to understand.

One of the ground breaking achievements the Sri Lankan military intelligence had done was that they engineered a split within the Tamil Tiger organization in 2004 and made one of the Tiger’s top commanders to defect from the terrorist organization with over 6000 Tiger cadres. Since SL military realized the importance of HUMINT in counterterrorism they temporarily enrolled the entire cadres including the Tiger top commander Karuna as a paramilitary group in the country’s army. Then the SL military indoctrinated the defected cadres with soft power and turned them against the rest of the Tiger organization’s main faction. This reverse tactic of turning the very same terrorists/ insurgents/guerrillas/rebels - whatever you may call them – against the main faction paid off since the tactical military intelligence collection was crucial and it was ready on the table obtained via this engineered defection. This was the “game-changer” in the Sri Lankan civil war’s history that could be extrapolated into ISIS and/or al Qaeda.

Also, the Tamil Tigers began as guerrillas in early 80s and by late 2000 they became a semi conventional force with an army, navy and rudimentary air force. However one of their fatal strategic and tactical miscalculations was that, at the last stages of the civil war they tried to resemble and mimic a full conventional force whereas the Sri Lankan military Special Forces fought and resembled that of guerillas. Not to mention the Tigers did survive the world’s fourth largest and powerful Indian army in the late 80s only because they then engaged themselves in a asymmetric warfare, like a typical insurgents-cum-guerillas opposed to later day’s semi-conventional army.

 

[The Bread Guy]

From Kurdish media, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42) - highlights mine:

Chancellor of the Kurdistan Region Security Council Masrour Barzani received a Canadian delegation, headed by the National Security Advisor to the Canadian Prime Minister, Richard Fadden, on Sunday August 30th.

The pair discussed the latest developments in the fight against Islamic State (IS), and the progression of the political process in the region.

Barzani underlined the role of international community in fighting terrorism, saying that military, financial and diplomatic support is crucial for the Kurdistan Region to defeat IS.

He stressed that Islamic countries should step in and fight radical ideology.

Fadden praised the Peshmerga forces that have made huge sacrifices to protect millions of civilians against IS.

He pledged that the Canadian government will continue supporting the Peshmerga and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) as they are the most effective force on the ground against the terrorist group.

Regarding negotiations over presidential issues in the Kurdistan Region, Barzani expressed hope that the dialogue will continue and the best solution to the matter will be found.

He said that the current political situation is the outcome of a successful democratic process in the region in which the parties feel free to express their views.

 

[Tuan]

Quote
By weeding the insurgents out of legitimate refugees

Still really looking forward to your theory on how to do this!!!!

Quote
, we can eventually apply Mao Tse Tung’s theory that “insurgents are like fish in an ocean of people”. By separating the “ocean” of general populace from the insurgent “fish” we will be able to determine the survival of the enemy insurgents/terrorists.

??? 

Okay, you can use a method call “Spotter Force Multiplier Theory” (SFMT), which was a successful tradecraft in intelligence led warfare in Sri Lanka.

So what is it?

In any enemy organization, may it be police, intelligence and military or even among the non-state actors, such as gangs, mafia or terrorist groups; you can only identify the members of the particular organization using its own members. When we confront/combat these organizations we would definitely come across and identify at least one single genuine member of such organization, whom I would call as “Joe”. Using Joe as a “spotter” we’ll be able to identify few other Joes. And then keep using every Joe as a “spotter force multiplier” till we get the big fish. Please note that the each Joe we arrest/capture should undergo a brief rehabilitation process; instill them with compassion and indoctrinate them with soft power, contrary to the usual aggressive interrogation techniques. The advantage of using SFMT is that we would have a complete picture and understanding of insider information regarding any enemy organization, which is known as the tactical intelligence in the field. 

 

[George Wallace]

Another name for Link Analysis. 

 

[Tuan]

Another name for Link Analysis.

Thank you for the corroboration!

 

[Eye In The Sky]

I don't know shit about Sri Lanka.  No comments there.  But for thought, what worked for the Nazi's on one front might not have worked so well on a different front.  Not all nails need the same size hammer.  Follow me?

I don't think you get how this deal is going down in the big dirt farm either.  I won't talk about TTPs and that stuff but let me suggest that your open source stuff isn't quite up to snuff.  You do understand the GOI is the driver of the big happy bus, right?  I say that because I don't think very many people understand the power structure in that region very well.  And the issues that arise from it that help/hinder the fight. 

:2c: