Pipelines, energy and natural resources

[Brad Sallows]

Amen to that! The laws of supply and demand rule supreme in all commodity industries...

The cornerstone of all that is pricing. One of the great problems to be solved is figuring out where stuff has to go to make more stuff. How can timely information possibly be created and received and acted upon? That insufficiency of information is why command economies fail.

Answer: prices.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Begging for federal welfare - anything but lifting business killing BC regulatory requirements...

Minister says B.C. expects billions from feds for forestry if U.S. talks fail​

Federal negotiators "must recognize that if they are unsuccessful" in addressing U.S. duties and tariffs on timber, B.C. will need help, says B.C. Forests Minister Ravi Parmar.

https://www.timescolonist.com/business/minister-says-bc-expects-billions-from-feds-for-forestry-if-us-talks-fail-12220882

 

[Brad Sallows]

Federal negotiators "must recognize that if they are unsuccessful" in addressing U.S. duties and tariffs on timber, B.C. will need help, says B.C. Forests Minister Ravi Parmar.

You wait for a loooong time for something to come along that move governments to do things you've thought they should do. Then a crisis arrives. Some governments start doing some of the things, but also put a lot of energy into pressing other governments to act first. Obviously there is not enough external pressure.

Let the crisis go on.

 

[HavokFour]

Begging for federal welfare - anything but lifting business killing BC regulatory requirements...

Minister says B.C. expects billions from feds for forestry if U.S. talks fail​

Federal negotiators "must recognize that if they are unsuccessful" in addressing U.S. duties and tariffs on timber, B.C. will need help, says B.C. Forests Minister Ravi Parmar.

https://www.timescolonist.com/business/minister-says-bc-expects-billions-from-feds-for-forestry-if-us-talks-fail-12220882

Sounds like an avenue for a deal to be made. That money could be tied to revenues made from a pipeline to the coast.

 

[Kirkhill]

The cornerstone of all that is pricing. One of the great problems to be solved is figuring out where stuff has to go to make more stuff. How can timely information possibly be created and received and acted upon? That insufficiency of information is why command economies fail.

Answer: prices.

Prices are difficult to plan but easy to change.

Planners insist in sticking to their plans even in the face of failure.

Retail businesses have to adjust their prices on a daily basis according to what the market will bear.

Ultimately every business venture is an experiment. The only reliable means of managing risk is through scaling. Start small and work up.

You have to suck it and see.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Prices are difficult to plan but easy to change.

Planners insist in sticking to their plans even in the face of failure.

Retail businesses have to adjust their prices on a daily basis according to what the market will bear.

Ultimately every business venture is an experiment. The only reliable means of managing risk is through scaling. Start small and work up.

You have to suck it and see.

What does that have to do with the information conveyed by prices?

 

[Kirkhill]

What does that have to do with the information conveyed by prices?

Prices change day by day.

Projects are planned years in advance based on anticipated prices.
As the project approaches IOC the price acceptable to the market may or may not be the price, or hopefully the price range, anticipated when the project planning commenced.

At that point decisions need to be made.
Accept the loss and shut down the project.
Hope for better days and plow on .
Hand the project off to another fallguy.
Figure out Plan B with what you have on hand.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Prices change day by day.

Projects are planned years in advance based on anticipated prices.
As the project approaches IOC the price acceptable to the market may or may not be the price, or hopefully the price range, anticipated when the project planning commenced.

At that point decisions need to be made.
Accept the loss and shut down the project.
Hope for better days and plow on .
Hand the project off to another fallguy.
Figure out Plan B with what you have on hand.

Time for a quote:

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable"

John Kenneth Galbraith

 

[Kirkhill]

Time for a quote:

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable"

John Kenneth Galbraith

20 odd years ago I was asked to prepare a feasibiity study on a plant that the client didn't want to invest in. The local, state and federal governments were forcing the issue. They were convinced there was enough money in the waste that the client could afford to build the plant and clean up the harbour.

I checked the sums for a high cost plant producing a high priced product that would require a lot of marketing and a low cost plant producing a low cost product that would sell easily. Neither solution produced a feasible, profitable business. But there was one solution that might have made economic sense. But 95% of my operating envelope was underwater.

One of the key drivers in this drying plant was the price of fuel. If the price of fuel was within bounds then there was a 5% chance that the plant might break even someday. I recommended that the only way that plant could breakeven was with fees for disposal from the local processors and/or operating subsidies and capital grants from the governments.

The project did not proceed.

...

I can remember chasing fuel suppliers and wondering if the 1 USD per gallon current price was a useful planning baseline or should I allow for the outrageous supposition that it might reach 2 USD per gallon over the life of the plant.

I have worked with plants built in the 80s that are still in service today, 40 years later.

I just checked the price of marine diesel at that site - 3.82 USD per gallon.

 

[HavokFour]

A milestone was reached this past month.

LNG Canada exports hit 1 million metric tons for first time in single month​

 

[HavokFour]

Carney teasing something to come?

One day after Trump signs pipeline deal, PM Carney says Alberta will likely get new one

In a sit-down interview with The Canadian Press, Mark Carney says a new oil pipeline out of Alberta will be likely built.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[CBH99]

Sounds like an avenue for a deal to be made. That money could be tied to revenues made from a pipeline to the coast.

Eby is an absolute enemy of common sense, and doesn't seem to be able to differentiate between the 'worst possible case scenario' and the cancelation of provincially imposed red tape that constrains true economic growth

He seems to think that if he loosens up on policy, all of BC is going going to turn into a raging inferno overnight (magnified many times by that darn pipeline Alberta wanted to build...even though there are already pipelines & he isn't on fire)



I like the way you think though. There's definitely ways to do it IF the stakeholders really want to do it.

The problem is the Eby government in BC has expressly and clearly stated they don't have any real interest in being one of those stakeholders. (Even though LNG seems to benefitting the province just fine)

Carney teasing something to come?

One day after Trump signs pipeline deal, PM Carney says Alberta will likely get new one

In a sit-down interview with The Canadian Press, Mark Carney says a new oil pipeline out of Alberta will be likely built.

www.ctvnews.ca

Seems like he's desperately trying to play catch up, now that Trump & Smith negotiated something instead?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Carney teasing something to come?

One day after Trump signs pipeline deal, PM Carney says Alberta will likely get new one

In a sit-down interview with The Canadian Press, Mark Carney says a new oil pipeline out of Alberta will be likely built.

www.ctvnews.ca

To the US

 

[lenaitch]

I thought they didn't need anything from us.

 

[brihard]

I thought they didn't need anything from us.

No, they claim not to… Obviously though there’s still an economic case to be made for our oil as cheaper inputs. But if they desire to vassalize us, that interest is served by maintaining dominance in our export market, and trying to keep the WTI/WCS differential up.

 

[Czech_pivo]

No, they claim not to… Obviously though there’s still an economic case to be made for our oil as cheaper inputs. But if they desire to vassalize us, that interest is served by maintaining dominance in our export market, and trying to keep the WTI/WCS differential up.

And that is why we need at least another 1.5m bpd pipeline to the sea and another 2+ LNG facilities to the sea.

You have to wonder what it would take to get Quebec on board with a pipeline through Quebec.

 

[YZT580]

And that is why we need at least another 1.5m bpd pipeline to the sea and another 2+ LNG facilities to the sea.

You have to wonder what it would take to get Quebec on board with a pipeline through Quebec.

when they need it for themselves you will see it go through and not until. They have large untapped reserves themselves that they refuse to develop.

 

[Czech_pivo]

when they need it for themselves you will see it go through and not until. They have large untapped reserves themselves that they refuse to develop.

Shale oil?

 

[Kirkhill]

I thought they didn't need anything from us.

There is a difference between need and want.

They don't need our oil. They can live without it. They want it. If the price is right. The difference between need and want is your bargaining position. You are now discussing the best use of discretionary funds, not money that must be spent to keep yourself alive.

 

[daftandbarmy]

JICYMI... the US economy relies heavily on Canada, despite what Trump and his cabal claim...

Setting the Record Straight on Canada-U.S. Trade​

Highlights​

• Canada is the largest export market for the U.S. and makes up one of the smallest trade deficits, owing largely to U.S. demand for energy-related products.
• Trade in the auto sector is balanced between the 2 nations. While President Trump has mused that the U.S. could replace Canadian auto exports with its own domestic supply, the highly integrated North American supply chains is a major complicating factor.
• Flipping this argument on its head, Canadian auto manufacturing has room to expand. Canada produces only 14 car models but consumes 325 models. The U.S. produces 121 models of the 328 models consumed by Americans.
• With respect to Trump’s assertion that the U.S. subsidizes Canada to the tune of US$200 billion per year, it’s unclear where this number is derived. In any event, rather than a subsidy, the U.S. trade deficit is a by-product of U.S. economic outperformance relative to other countries.

As Canadian’s brace for a long period of “deal making” under President Trump’s tariff strategy, here’s a primer on what’s at stake and the facts behind the rhetoric.

In addition to border security concerns, Trump has argued that “the United States can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits that Canada needs to stay afloat,” claiming that the U.S. subsidizes Canada to the tune of US$200 billion annually. How “massive” is the deficit and is there validity to this claim of subsidization?

Canada is America’s second largest trading partner, but number one export market​

In the first three quarters of 2024, roughly C$800 billion or (US$600 billion) of goods crossed the Canada-U.S. border. Including trade in services boosts these totals to C$910 (US$683 billion).

• That is the equivalent to C$3.6 billion in total import and export flows each and every day.
• Only Mexico edges out Canada (Chart 1).
• But when it comes to which country dominates in buying American products, Canada is the single largest market by a large margin with nearly US$350 billion goods and services crossing Canada’s border over the first three quarters of 2024. (Chart 2). Some 34 U.S. states sell more goods to Canada than any other foreign economy.
• Trade between the U.S. and Canada is highly integrated. Most Canadian exports are inputs used by American businesses in their own production – more so than with other trading partners1. Thus, a disproportionate share of the negative tariff impacts on imports from Canada would be through the channel of business supply chains and productivity that would drive higher costs and inflationary pressures at the retail level.

Setting the Record Straight on Canada-U.S. Trade

Setting the Record Straight on Canada-U.S. Trade

economics.td.com