Political impacts of Ukraine war

[HavokFour]

Pretty significant strike, it would be something if Ukraine forced more production to be shut down right now.

Ukraine Drones Wipe Out Most Tanks at Key Russian Military Fuel Depot in Krasnodar

According to Russian media reports, 18 of the 20 storage tanks – including 9 gasoline and 9 diesel tanks, as well as 7 fuel tankers – were in flames.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Going by it's location, it will impact fuel supplies in Crimea and the SW frontline

 

[HavokFour]

It's hard to believe this was just a "stray", considering what it hit.

A drone from Russian airspace strikes the chimney of an Estonian power plant

A drone from Russian airspace struck Estonia’s Auvere power plant, underscoring how the war in Ukraine is spilling wider.

estonianworld.com

 

[CBH99]

It's hard to believe this was just a "stray", considering what it hit.

A drone from Russian airspace strikes the chimney of an Estonian power plant

A drone from Russian airspace struck Estonia’s Auvere power plant, underscoring how the war in Ukraine is spilling wider.

estonianworld.com

Possible attempt at a false flag by Ukraine to draw a neighboring baltic country into the war??

Surely if Estonia chose to respond militarily, the Russians would have no choice but to drastically reposition their forces currently fighting in Ukraine - giving the Ukrainians a bit of a reprieve


I highly doubt the Russians want a fight with Estonia right now, especially given they are a NATO member.

I also doubt the Russians would be so careless as to target a power facility in Estonia so overtly, given that they aren't at war.

And Ukrainian SOF has proven themselves more than capable of operating inside Russia to pull off assassinations & demoltions.

Pulling off a drone launch from Russia into Estonia is quite doable, and the reward would be a game changer in Ukraine's favour



Is this a possibility??

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Possible attempt at a false flag by Ukraine to draw a neighboring baltic country into the war??

Surely if Estonia chose to respond militarily, the Russians would have no choice but to drastically reposition their forces currently fighting in Ukraine - giving the Ukrainians a bit of a reprieve


I highly doubt the Russians want a fight with Estonia right now, especially given they are a NATO member.

I also doubt the Russians would be so careless as to target a power facility in Estonia so overtly, given that they aren't at war.

And Ukrainian SOF has proven themselves more than capable of operating inside Russia to pull off assassinations & demoltions.

Pulling off a drone launch from Russia into Estonia is quite doable, and the reward would be a game changer in Ukraine's favour



Is this a possibility??

I think you underestimate how few shits Russia has left to give about anything…

 

[daftandbarmy]

I think you underestimate how few shits Russia has left to give about anything…

"Even the most favorable outcome of the war will never lead to the decomposition of the main forces of Russia, which is based on millions of Russians ... The latter, even if they break up international treaties, just as quickly re-connect with each other, like pieces of a particle of mercury."

- Otto von Bismarck

 

[The Bread Guy]

... I highly doubt the Russians want a fight with Estonia right now, especially given they are a NATO member.

I also doubt the Russians would be so careless as to target a power facility in Estonia so overtly, given that they aren't at war.

And all that GPS jamming/spoofing in that area is from sun spots? And all those mysterious fires/sabotage in NATO areas?

Is this a possibility??

Nothing is impossible, but remember that razor of old Occam.

In other news, what a co-incidence ....

Pentagon reportedly weighs diverting Ukraine military aid to Middle East

The weapons that could be redirected include air defense interceptor missiles purchased through a NATO initiative, the Washington Post reported.

www.defensenews.com

 

[CBH99]

I think you underestimate how few shits Russia has left to give about anything…

I honestly don't know.

Putin is smart, and calculating, and quite deliberate in his geopolitical moves.

I know this operation in Ukraine hasn't gone the way he thought it would. But from the Russian perspective, he obviously felt like it was necessary.



Could NATO be running discreet operations out of Estonia, that is attracting more Russian activity to that area, hence the errant drone attack?

It would take some pressure off Ukraine because they then have to go reinforce their border with Estonia, the same way we have our Latvian based multinational brigade that keeps the Russians reinforcing their border with Latvia?

 

[HavokFour]

With how quickly the US is burning through stock in Iran, Finland is looking to do an audit to make sure the stuff they purchase for Ukraine is actually going there and not being diverted.

Finland to check delivery of US weapons to Ukraine

Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen says the U.S. should not redirect weapons for Ukraine to Iran

news.liga.net

 

[Good2Golf]

Possible attempt at a false flag by Ukraine to draw a neighboring baltic country into the war??

Highly unlikely. UKR appreciates the value of the three Baltic south-side nations (EST, LVA and LTU) and the part they play in keeping the BaSR (Baltic Sea Region) as reasonably stabilized as it is at the moment. There is no value in UKR trying to involve a junior NATO nation into being the pawn that gives RUS a perceived region to claim foul on NATO writ large.

Surely if Estonia chose to respond militarily, the Russians would have no choice but to drastically reposition their forces currently fighting in Ukraine - giving the Ukrainians a bit of a reprieve.

The Russians would prefer to keep their remaining (competent) forces in the UKR-RUS SMO AOR, not dilute them up into the BaSR. Hybrid warfare disruption is plenty to add forgot the war SMO for the time being as far as RUS is concerned.

I highly doubt the Russians want a fight with Estonia right now, especially given they are a NATO member.

Russia absolutely wants to prod and test the limits of NATO tolerance, specifically the EST-LVA-LTU trio, and whether they can instigate an Art. 5 request by any three of those countries.

I also doubt the Russians would be so careless as to target a power facility in Estonia so overtly, given that they aren't at war.

‘Careless’? Its deliberate and calculated, not at all careless.

And Ukrainian SOF has proven themselves more than capable of operating inside Russia to pull off assassinations & demoltions.

And UKR focus remains that.

Pulling off a drone launch from Russia into Estonia is quite doable, and the reward would be a game changer in Ukraine's favour.

Not a game changer, just reinforces what many that have been tracking Russia’s intentions to spread instability in the region, especially focusing on influencing the thee Baltic nations sandwiched between Russia and Kaliningrad to make some kind of a deal with Russia to avoid future pain of a less-focused (on them) wider regional conflict.