PM Harper could justify calling an early election, say former PMO advisers
By ABBAS RANA |
Published: Monday, 10/13/2014 12:00 am EDT
If Prime Minister Stephen Harper chose to pull the plug early for the next election, he would have no difficulty in making the case for one as the opposition parties have already voted against the Conservatives on Canada’s combat mission in Iraq and the need for a fresh mandate on how to spend billions of dollars in the expected surplus in the next federal budget, say Conservatives.
The next federal election is supposed to happen on Oct. 19, 2015, but in interviews last week, several Conservative insiders and opposition MPs told The Hill Times that they wouldn’t be surprised if one is triggered this fall after the fall economic update or in the spring 2015, chiefly to avoid the potential fallout from the 41-day proceedings of Conservative-turned-Independent Sen. Mike Duffy’s trial scheduled to start on April 7. The fall economic update, which is expected to be released either at the end of this month or early next month, is likely to include announcements of tax breaks such as income-splitting for parents with children under the age of 18, doubling of children’s fitness tax credit and allowing an increase of annual contribution for tax-free savings accounts from $5,500 to $10,000.
“Right after the fall economic update, I can see the Prime Minister saying ‘We need to go to the people because we’ve got the Iraq war, we want a mandate on the Iraq war and we want a mandate to implement the tax changes we’ve put into the fall economic update,” Bruce Carson, former senior adviser to Mr. Harper told
The Hill Times and added that although the 2008 election was called in September, Mr. Harper had made up his mind in early summer that he wanted to go to the polls in the fall because of the country’s poor economic outlook at that point and the prospect that then-opposition leader Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Que.) would grill him day after day on the economy.
So, he said, Mr. Harper by now would have made up his mind whether he wants to go early or follow the scheduled election date.
Using his majority, in a vote in the House of Commons on Tuesday, Mr. Harper passed a motion authorizing the launch of combat operations in Iraq. The final tally was 157-134 with 13 MPs—six Conservative, three NDP, three Liberal and one Independent were absent. The New Democratic Party and the Liberal Party opposed this motion. Liberal MP Irwin Cotler (Mount Royal, Que.) abstained while Green Party MP Bruce Hyer (Thunder Bay-Superior North, Ont.) voted for and his party leader Elizabeth May (Saanich-Gulf Islands, B.C.) voted against this motion.
In interviews last week, opposition MPs charged that the Harper government handled this vote in “a secretive, hyper-partisan and disrespectful” way to ensure that opposition parties don’t support it. They said that the Conservatives failed to provide all the relevant information deliberately for partisan reasons.
“His whole approach was very secretive and not respectful of Parliamentary procedures or precedence. He’ll have to answer for that. That’s his problem, not ours. We have taken and we’ll continue to take a very solid, principled position based upon the highest and best value that Canada can bring and we’ll be focused on our message to Canadians,” Deputy Liberal leader Ralph Goodale (Wascana, Sask.) said in an interview with
The Hill Times last week.
On the fiscal side, for the first time since 2008, the next year’s federal budget is likely to run a $7-billion surplus.
Meanwhile, Mr. Carson and other Conservatives interviewed for this article said that should Mr. Harper decided to call an election earlier than October of next year, it will either be after the fall economic update or prior to the start of the Duffy trial. They said that there are good reasons to go to the polls early for the Conservatives because it will be an uphill battle for their party to win a fourth consecutive mandate. Most importantly, they said, the Conservatives want to avoid the expected political damage from the Duffy trial and also for governing parties, there are always concerns for “more things to go wrong.”
“When you’re in government, you never know what’s going to hit you next,” said Mr. Carson.
“I don’t know what’s going to come out in the Duffy trial, but do you want to take a chance? Whether it’s going to stick or not, Mr. Mulcair and Mr. Trudeau are sure as heck [going to] bring out the mucilage to make sure that it does stick. …Do you really want to take that chance? It’s one of those things: you don’t know what you don’t know. You don’t want that,” said Mr. Carson about the Duffy case in which the suspended Senator is facing 31 charges including fraud, bribery and breach of trust.
Mr. Carson’s trial is also set to start on Sept. 8, 2015 just before the next election. Mr. Carson was charged under the Lobbying Act for lobbying while prohibited and he was already facing influence peddling charges from 2012 under the Criminal Code.
Keith Beardsley, former deputy chief of staff to Mr. Harper, agreed that Sen. Duffy’s trial could turn out to be a serious political headache.
“You can’t control events. You’re really at the mercy of whatever happens [when your party is in government]. There’s nothing you can do to control what’s going to happen. Governments usually go [for an election] when the timing is best suited for them,” said Mr. Beardsley, who now is the president of Cenco Public Affairs.
“It’s [Duffy trial] going to have an impact that’s going to remind people of a lot of stuff. I fully expect that Duffy has stuff that he’s sitting on, that he hasn’t released which may or may not be any different from what’s out there now, but will put a different slant on things and give the media another reason to go full blown on Duffy coverage.”
Most of the public opinion polls in the last year-and-a-half have shown that Justin Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) Liberals are leading in public opinion polls. According to an
EKOS poll released on Oct. 1, Liberals were ahead of the other national parties with the support of 38.3 per cent of Canadians, followed by the Conservatives with 24.9 per cent support, the NDP at 24.4 per cent and the Green Party at 7.7 per cent. The poll of 1,549 Canadians was conducted via phone and online between Sept. 21-25. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Mr. Beardsley said that in his opinion, it will be “foolish” to give the opposition parties more time to get stronger and that it’s also distressing for his party that Mr. Trudeau has been leading in public opinion polls for months.
“Your opponents get stronger every day. There’s a point where you either try and take down your opponent before they become too strong. [Otherwise] You basically set yourself up for failure. I don’t think they’re [Conservatives] going to do that. They’ll move when they feel the time is right,” Mr. Beardsley said.
“If the polls don’t turn around, then the polls become almost self fulfilling. People see this person ahead poll after poll after poll and they begin to shift their [voting preference] or at least become neutral. You have to do something to halt that upward trend,” Mr. Beardsley said.
Prime Minister Harper brought in the fixed date election law in 2007, but chose to ignore it a year later and came back with more seats after the 2008 federal election. The last federal election took place on May 2, 2011, and, according to the law passed by Parliament, federal elections are to be held on “the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.” This means the next election is supposed to happen on Oct. 19, 2015. The fixed date election law does not bar the Prime Minister from triggering an election before the scheduled date.
Some politicos argue that there would be a backlash from Canadians if Mr. Harper broke his own fixed election date again with a majority government. Opposition parties said if he did, they would make it an election issue. But Conservatives said that even if the opposition parties raised this as an issue during the campaign, it would last only for a few days before other issues come up.
“You can call an election whenever you want and you can always justify it. Even if you get beat up in the media for calling one, that lasts about may be a week and at that point various parties are going to [announce] different policies and at that point, the story changes. I don’t think the average Canadian really pays that much attention to it. It’s more the people inside the bubble in Ottawa who are worked up about it,” said Mr. Beardsley.
Traditionally, parties in government call elections when they think they have the best chance of winning. Former prime minister Jean Chrétien who won three back-to-back majority governments called two elections—1997 and 2000—before even completing four years in government, although on each occasion, he had the mandate for five years. Opposition parties at the time raised this as an issue but Mr. Chrétien won majorities both times.
Opposition parties said they are preparing for the next election with the possibility that it could be triggered sooner than the scheduled date.
“Of course, we’re ready because we don’t trust Mr. Harper. He’s broken his own fixed election date law [before],” NDP MP Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley, B.C.) said in an interview with
The Hill Times.
Mr. Goodale also said the Liberals are preparing to ensure that in case of a snap election, all their election readiness should be in place.
“We’ve been operating on a basis that will deal with all eventualities,” Mr. Goodale (Wascana, Sask.) told
The Hill Times.
“He’ll [Mr. Harper] choose if he so inclined any pretext that suits his convenience. ... Whatever petty machinations the prime minster might go through, that’s up to him. We’ll be ready, we’ll have a very attractive alternative for Canadians to embrace.”
Ms. May told The Hill Times that she expects Mr. Harper to follow the fixed election date, but should he chose to ignore it, she will highlight it in the campaign.
“We’ll try to be ready for whatever occurs. But I don’t see how it [early election] could be justified. …If he were to do that, we certainly will be completely ready.”
Conservative MP Daryl Kramp (Prince Edward-Hastings, Ont.), in an interview with
The Hill Times, said he has not heard anything from the party leadership that would suggest they’re planning on ignoring the scheduled fixed election date next October.
“The bottom line is at this particular point, the government’s been pretty straightforward and committed that we’re just going to go ahead and follow through with the decision that was reached by Parliament and I’m not given any reason to disbelieve that that’s not going to be the case,” said Mr. Kramp.
Meanwhile, Conrad Black, a staunch Conservative and one of the most well-known former media moguls of the country who writes a column for the
National Post, wrote recently that if Mr. Harper wants his party to get re-elected, he should step aside and let the Conservatives elect a new leader.
But Conservatives said that the Prime Minister has no plans to step aside and that he will lead the party in the next election.
“Parties make their own decisions. I have complete confidence in Prime Minister’s leadership. I also suggest Conrad Black doesn’t sit in Parliament,” said Mr. Kramp.
arana@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times
