Yet, the polling evidence is convincing – the Conservatives need to attract younger, urban, ethnically diverse voters or they will lose again in 2019.
Just hours before Scheer’s appearance at Manning, David Coletto, chief executive at Abacus Data, presented some new research that suggested the pool of voters who would consider voting Conservative has risen to 51 per cent of all Canadians, from 42 per cent at the last election. Yet Abacus polling said only 26 per cent of all voters say they will vote Tory if an election were held tomorrow.
Clearly, then, the opportunity for the Conservatives to do much better is there.
The poll outlined which groups are potentially persuadable. Currently only 11 per cent of Conservative supporters belong to visible minorities, yet 25 per cent of that group are potential supporters.
At the moment, 37 per cent of Tories are under 45, while 54 per cent would think about voting for Scheer.
Only 47 per cent of current Conservatives want “serious action” on climate change, while 67 per cent of potential supporters think it is important.
This large pool of potential support is made up of people who are not instinctively hostile to government intervention; are more likely to be urban dwellers; and believe immigration strengthens the country.
Crucially, a majority have a positive view of Justin Trudeau, with only one in five actively expressing dislike for him.
All of which makes it a tall order to win over the one quarter of the electorate that does not support the Tories at the moment but is open to the idea.
But Scheer doesn’t have to be greener than Trudeau – he just has to neutralize the carbon tax with a strong proposal of his own, as Stephen Harper did when he matched Paul Martin’s every move on healthcare in 2004.
Yet Scheer rejoiced in his rejection of a policy that is popular with the voters he needs to woo. He spoke fondly of his hope that he would unite with Alberta opposition leader Jason Kenney and new Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe against Ottawa’s carbon tax.
“It’s great news for our movement and great news for Canada,” he said.