Politics in 2018

[ballz]

I totally agree with all your comments up to the last sentence.

What is pretty weak is Justin Trudeau's proven record. You have to go far and wide to match the inane behavior and piss poor leadership coming from Canada's current Prime Minister. For people to deny the obvious are basic human flaws were they choose not to accept reality for their own reasons.

Perhaps I worded it poorly, but I was not saying I like Trudeau better than Scheer... I was saying that so far Justin Trudeau (and all the qualities you point out) is Scheer's only redeeming quality for me.... which is not something that exactly qualifies you as the PM-in-waiting.

With the lack of quality, I'll be voting for a fringe party again...

 

[dapaterson]

Canada's Ambassador to Indonesia greeted the new year by tweeting his praise of Myanmar as a tourist destination... then quickly deleted it.  A journalist captured it.

https://twitter.com/DHamamdjian/status/948178356301959168

 

[Altair]

Perhaps I worded it poorly, but I was not saying I like Trudeau better than Scheer... I was saying that so far Justin Trudeau (and all the qualities you point out) is Scheer's only redeeming quality for me.... which is not something that exactly qualifies you as the PM-in-waiting.

With the lack of quality, I'll be voting for a fringe party again...

I may have considered switching my vote if the Conservatives had chosen Bernier.

But they chose Scheer, so I think Trudeau has my vote again.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I may have considered switching my vote if the Conservatives had chosen Bernier.

But they chose Scheer, so I think Trudeau has my vote again.

Not a set up to a partisan shot, but I am genuinely interested why you prefer Bernier to Scheer. And why that leads to a Liberal vote.

 

[Altair]

Not a set up to a partisan shot, but I am genuinely interested why you prefer Bernier to Scheer. And why that leads to a Liberal vote.

I'm not at all interested in social conservatism. I feel that Bernier would have been able to keep that part of the CPC in check. I do have some libertarian views, especially when it comes to deregulation. Seeing as how neither the LPC or CPC are really big on that, it's a wash between those two parties, which leads me to vote on social issues, in which case I'm far more aligned to the LPC than the CPC.

If Bernier was leader and was promising to get rid of things such as supply management and trade barriers between provinces I would have been tempted to see what he could do, especially if he the social conservative wing of the CPC was kept in check.

As it stands, I don't believe that is the case with Scheer, and I think he owes his current position to the very wing that I want no part of. If the Libertarian party of canada wasn't a joke and waste of a vote I wouldn't support the conservatives or the Liberals, but as it stands, I'll keep supporting the liberals.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I'm not at all interested in social conservatism. I feel that Bernier would have been able to keep that part of the CPC in check. I do have some libertarian views, especially when it comes to deregulation. Seeing as how neither the LPC or CPC are really big on that, it's a wash between those two parties, which leads me to vote on social issues, in which case I'm far more aligned to the LPC than the CPC.

If Bernier was leader and was promising to get rid of things such as supply management and trade barriers between provinces I would have been tempted to see what he could do, especially if he the social conservative wing of the CPC was kept in check.

As it stands, I don't believe that is the case with Scheer, and I think he owes his current position to the very wing that I want no part of. If the Libertarian party of canada wasn't a joke and waste of a vote I wouldn't support the conservatives or the Liberals, but as it stands, I'll keep supporting the liberals.

Thanks for that, Altair. I appreciate your opinion.

 

[PuckChaser]

If Bernier was leader and was promising to get rid of things such as supply management and trade barriers between provinces I would have been tempted to see what he could do, especially if he the social conservative wing of the CPC was kept in check.

As it stands, I don't believe that is the case with Scheer, and I think he owes his current position to the very wing that I want no part of. If the Libertarian party of canada wasn't a joke and waste of a vote I wouldn't support the conservatives or the Liberals, but as it stands, I'll keep supporting the liberals.

Sounds like the same fear-mongering the Liberals and NDP used to target Harper with. 8 years with a majority and not a single social conservative motion passed in the Commons to force his views on anyone.

 

[jollyjacktar]

I'm not at all interested in social conservatism. I feel that Bernier would have been able to keep that part of the CPC in check. I do have some libertarian views, especially when it comes to deregulation. Seeing as how neither the LPC or CPC are really big on that, it's a wash between those two parties, which leads me to vote on social issues, in which case I'm far more aligned to the LPC than the CPC.

If Bernier was leader and was promising to get rid of things such as supply management and trade barriers between provinces I would have been tempted to see what he could do, especially if he the social conservative wing of the CPC was kept in check.

As it stands, I don't believe that is the case with Scheer, and I think he owes his current position to the very wing that I want no part of. If the Libertarian party of canada wasn't a joke and waste of a vote I wouldn't support the conservatives or the Liberals, but as it stands, I'll keep supporting the liberals.

I'll stand with you on Scheer isn't desirable but for me neither is Trudeau and his party.  I really hate feeling up against the wall for choice. 

As for your feeling towards what seems to be your true interest, the Libertarians, how do you expect them to gain traction and become a contender if you won't support them with your vote?  They won't become anything with support like that.

 

[Remius]

Sounds like the same fear-mongering the Liberals and NDP used to target Harper with. 8 years with a majority and not a single social conservative motion passed in the Commons to force his views on anyone.

I’m not sure I would call it fear mongering.  If the last leadership contest is any indication, the so-cons in the CPC are still very much a voice in that party.  Scheer may well follow Stephen Harper’s policy to steer clear of social issues though but there was just enough talk of it to turn me off as well.  My mind won’t be made up though until I see what the CPC chooses to run on and how much the Liberals screw up or not until the next tio .

 

[dapaterson]

In considering the years beyond 2018, there's an interesting Globe and Mail article at: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/multi-ethnic-mixed-race-canada-census-2016/article37475308/

As multi-ethnic population in Canada rises, complications arise

Navigating the many complications that come with a mixed identity, which range from political to sociological to health-related, is becoming more common across the country as an increasing swath of residents are reporting multiple ethnicities, according to data from the 2016 census.

 

[Altair]

I'll stand with you on Scheer isn't desirable but for me neither is Trudeau and his party.  I really hate feeling up against the wall for choice. 

As for your feeling towards what seems to be your true interest, the Libertarians, how do you expect them to gain traction and become a contender if you won't support them with your vote?  They won't become anything with support like that.

I do struggle with not voting for the libertarians, but the party is truly too small for me to vote for.  They only had candidates in 72 ridings in 2015.

I have considered giving them money every time the LPC emails me asking me for some.

 

[jollyjacktar]

I do struggle with not voting for the libertarians, but the party is truly too small for me to vote for.  They only had candidates in 72 ridings in 2015.

I have considered giving them money every time the LPC emails me asking me for some.

This last go around and probably the next, l wasn't going to vote for any of the usual suspects.  There was an independent candidate in my riding.  They got my vote for the reasons that l would be doing my civic duty by voting, l would give the usual suspects the finger by not supporting them and with any luck, the independent would get enough votes to get his deposit back.  A win-win-win, so to speak.

And again, if you don't stand up and give the Libertarians your support that's one less vote they'll miss out on towards becoming a serious party.  Your vote would not be wasted, rather it would have in my opinion more weight by your voting with your principals and heart.  Be an enabler instead of an anchor, there's enough sheep out there to vote Liberal anyhow.

 

[ballz]

When I said I'd probably be voting for a fringe party, it was the Libertarians I was speaking of. I hope they learned a lesson in 2015 after some internal strife that caused them to go from about 140 candidates to 72... I don't want to get into the inner-party drama but I think the leader, Tim Moen, did learn a good hard lesson out of that. I hope they do better in 2019, even though 2015 was technically a record year for them so that's something I guess...

As I said in another post when I was advocating for them back in 2015, there is empirical data to support that when 10% of a population adopts a principled / unshakeable belief, the rest of population quickly follows... in other words, 10% is somewhat of an ideological tipping point. So in voting for the libertarians, that really was the short-term goal. I'd rather support a party that not only represents my views, but also I can sleep relatively well knowing my voice was not only heard but that the reprehensible ones among them won't actually be able to do any harm since they won't be in power, for now.

If I vote CPC or LPC, I'm culpable for the idiocy that ensues. It's pretty catch 22.

8 years with a majority and not a single social conservative motion passed in the Commons to force his views on anyone.

Bill C-51? Which the Liberals argued against and then passed shortly after coming into government :facepalm: Tough on crime legislation which had minimum sentences that were unconstitutional? (and now, of course, the Liberals are still jailing people for marijuana... frig sakes, the people just can't win). Even something like income splitting is socially conservative. It is literally the government providing financial support to those who live the way the party has decided is in best interest of society. (i.e. married and with kids). I don't disagree with some social conservative values, but I don't want a government that actively legislates or supports it through taxpayers.

The CPC Facebook page just ran an ad about how PM Harper had passed twice as much legislation in the same time PM Justin Trudeau has been Prime Minister.... what kind of "small government" CPC is that exactly? It made me sick.

I think Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau, and Andrew Scheer are the same disease (big intrusive government) masking each other as the cure for one another.

 

[Edward Campbell]

From the "next RCAF fighter" thread ...

He's waiting for the knives to come out after Scheer loses to Trudeau.

I agree ... but he's not the only one.

My guess (valid until end of the afternoon, only) is that Trudeau wins a minority in 2019 and both Scheer and Singh resign.

I have no views on who the NDP should select ... someone who doesn't alienate Quebecers for a start, I suppose.

The Conservatives need, in my opinion, to go young, female, bilingual and media savvy ... and there really aren't any obvious candidates, yet. Maybe one of Bernier or O'Toole is their best choice if:

    1. Scheer still cannot connect with Canadians in 2018; and

    2. Trudeau doesn't really, massively screw the pooch.

 

[Remius]

From the "next RCAF fighter" thread ...

I agree ... but he's not the only one.

My guess (valid until end of the afternoon, only) is that Trudeau wins a minority in 2019 and both Scheer and Singh resign.

I have no views on who the NDP should select ... someone who doesn't alienate Quebecers for a start, I suppose.

The Conservatives need, in my opinion, to go young, female, bilingual and media savvy ... and there really aren't any obvious candidates, yet.

Carolyn Mulroney.  She'll gain some experience provincially as an MPP then make the jump to federal politics when Scheer resigns and another drawn out leadership race starts up. young, female and media savvy plus has some family pedigree.

 

[dapaterson]

I expect the young Ms Mulroney will not hit the federal stage before 2023 or so; better to work out your mistakes on the provincial stage than the federal one.

Besides, when the Ontario Tories somehow inexplicably tank this year's Ontario election with their usual stream of unforced errors, she may be well positioned to take over the provincial party first...

 

[Remius]

I expect the young Ms Mulroney will not hit the federal stage before 2023 or so; better to work out your mistakes on the provincial stage than the federal one.

Besides, when the Ontario Tories somehow inexplicably tank this year's Ontario election with their usual stream of unforced errors, she may be well positioned to take over the provincial party first...

Not implausible but do the math.

She wins her seat provincially in 2018.  If Brown wins she'll likely get a cabinet post.  if Brown loses, my bet is someone more prominent than her will run.  Maybe a former federal CPC.  Anyways, we have a federal election in fall 2019.  Scheer loses and resigns.  Interim leader so and so takes over and leader (if history is any indication) is chosen in 2021 for a 2023 election.  I can see her make a run in 2023 with 2 years as the opposition leader and 3 years of cabinet work or as an opposition critic provincially.  She would have 5-6 years experience.  Trudeau had about 7 years before being elected PM.

   

 

[Altair]

Not implausible but do the math.

She wins her seat provincially in 2018.  If Brown wins she'll likely get a cabinet post.  if Brown loses, my bet is someone more prominent than her will run.  Maybe a former federal CPC.  Anyways, we have a federal election in fall 2019.  Scheer loses and resigns.  Interim leader so and so takes over and leader (if history is any indication) is chosen in 2021 for a 2023 election.  I can see her make a run in 2023 with 2 years as the opposition leader and 3 years of cabinet work or as an opposition critic provincially.  She would have 5-6 years experience.  Trudeau had about 7 years before being elected PM.

 

and she's a moderate.

 

[ballz]

From the "next RCAF fighter" thread ...

I agree ... but he's not the only one.

My guess (valid until end of the afternoon, only) is that Trudeau wins a minority in 2019 and both Scheer and Singh resign.

I have no views on who the NDP should select ... someone who doesn't alienate Quebecers for a start, I suppose.

The Conservatives need, in my opinion, to go young, female, bilingual and media savvy ... and there really aren't any obvious candidates, yet. Maybe one of Bernier or O'Toole is their best choice if:

    1. Scheer still cannot connect with Canadians in 2018; and

    2. Trudeau doesn't really, massively screw the pooch.

If Trudeau is reduced to a minority I can see Scheer staying on, particularly if the CPC came within striking distance of a minority.

I feel pretty confident Bernier will run again if there is another leadership contest. However, this time I think there are some prominent folks like Peter McKay that would run (God I hope not) and it would probably be a very contentious race, this time amongst some well-known people. Could Rona Ambrose return? I think, given her performance as interim leader (admittedly a much easier job than being the actual leader) and the fact that she is a woman would also make her a formidable option. If it can't be Bernier, I'd hope for Ambrose.

While it was happening, I thought she was doing a great job. Now that she's been replaced by Scheer, I just watched some YouTube clips of her and it really leaves you thinking how the Liberals would look now if they had been facing her every day in the HoC over the last few months.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3f4ts0Ob7o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVv2j7tbHsg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAJZYLgy41o

 

[ModlrMike]

Could Rona Ambrose return? I think, given her performance as interim leader (admittedly a much easier job than being the actual leader) and the fact that she is a woman would also make her a formidable option.

Maybe that's her plan all along. Out of sigh, out of mind... for the time being. Distance herself from the old crowd and come back stronger than ever.