Presidential election may be up for grabs
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I am confused about this. Do soldiers know more about politics than the average citizen? I am guessing on average, given that the CF is a cross-section of Canadian society, that some soldier's know a lot, some a reasonable amount and some don't really know anything (just like any other profession). So I am really not seeing your point.
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One of the things that struck me, as I surfed the channels yesterday evening, was how annoyed the US political ’commentariat’ is, was, anyway, at McCain’s choice. Campbell Brown (CNN) nearly blew a gasket as she tried to get a GOP campaign official to “tell the truth!” The ‘truth’ being that Palin is ‘unqualified.’ I’m guessing all this angst has more to do with being caught flat-footed than with any real consideration of Palin’s qualifications – thin though they may be – or of what she adds to the ticket.
Some commentators resorted to football analogies. The “Hail Mary” pass was trotted out by at least two of them. Bill O’Reilly said something about taking your star running back (the ‘experience’ factor) out of the game and relying only upon the quarterback to win.
By the end of the evening cooler heads were prevailing. “Look,” one commentator said (approximately), “Spiro Agnew and Dan Quail were on winning tickets while Walter Mondale and Joe Lieberman were losers; so much for the value of ‘qualified’ candidates!”
McCain has chosen to select a VP who should help to secure his own base – especially with the prototypical gun toting, rural red-neck and religious conservatives who helped George W Bush so much. Obama did much the same – trying to appeal to the rust belt urban, union member, working class Democratic base that rallied to Hillary Clinton after she reinvented herself, in mid-campaign, in their image.
One part of the platform where Palin may be a real help is on maverick-reformer plank. Obama, rather like self described maverick McCain, is a professional politician, à la Stephen Harper; he’s never held a ‘real’ job; he’s been an academic, community activist or elected official all his life. Now, to be fair, Palin’s resumé isn’t much thicker but she can (almost certainly will) claim that she is more of a “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” type who went into politics – city council, then mayor then governor, only to do battle for the ‘little guy’ and to fight the lazy, corrupt, entrenched political establishment. There’s just enough truth in all that to make it appealing to a lot of people.
This is still an uphill fight for McCain/Palin; don’t let Obama’s weak performance this summer fool you – he will outspend McCain by three, four or five to one and he is a first rate campaigner, especially when he addresses a big crowd on a philosophical topic. Obama is a real, certified celebrity – based in part upon being the first black person, in a country captivated by racial matters, to have a real shot at he highest office in the land. America is, also, a celebrity obsessed place and just being famous – celebrated – is a ‘qualification’ of sorts. But, McCain is a genuine hero and heroics, especially the stoical heroism* he displayed, plays well, too. Americans may, enviously, worship celebrities but they want to be heroes. I’m guessing that authentic heroism will trump celebrity.
McCain and Palin also have the advantage, if one can call it that, of having sons on active service: McCain’s son Jimmy is a marine and Palin’ son Track is a soldier. There is a perception in America that the rich and powerful manage to shield their sons from combat. ‘Ordinary’ folks, so goes the myth, bear the burdens and risks of combat while the children of privilege hide out in e.g. the Air National Guard.
But, I repeat, this is a presidential election and it will be won and lost by the presidential candidates: McCain and Obama. The role of he VP is, as Cactus Jack Garner (FDR’s VP from 1933 to 41) said, "not worth a bucket of warm piss." And that’s about the impact Joe Biden and Sarah Palin will have on the election, too.
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* Consider the words of the US national anthem: It is a story of heroic endurance and the marvel of seeing, in “the dawn’s early light” that, after a night of ferocious bombardment, their “flag was still there.”
Some commentators resorted to football analogies. The “Hail Mary” pass was trotted out by at least two of them. Bill O’Reilly said something about taking your star running back (the ‘experience’ factor) out of the game and relying only upon the quarterback to win.
By the end of the evening cooler heads were prevailing. “Look,” one commentator said (approximately), “Spiro Agnew and Dan Quail were on winning tickets while Walter Mondale and Joe Lieberman were losers; so much for the value of ‘qualified’ candidates!”
McCain has chosen to select a VP who should help to secure his own base – especially with the prototypical gun toting, rural red-neck and religious conservatives who helped George W Bush so much. Obama did much the same – trying to appeal to the rust belt urban, union member, working class Democratic base that rallied to Hillary Clinton after she reinvented herself, in mid-campaign, in their image.
One part of the platform where Palin may be a real help is on maverick-reformer plank. Obama, rather like self described maverick McCain, is a professional politician, à la Stephen Harper; he’s never held a ‘real’ job; he’s been an academic, community activist or elected official all his life. Now, to be fair, Palin’s resumé isn’t much thicker but she can (almost certainly will) claim that she is more of a “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” type who went into politics – city council, then mayor then governor, only to do battle for the ‘little guy’ and to fight the lazy, corrupt, entrenched political establishment. There’s just enough truth in all that to make it appealing to a lot of people.
This is still an uphill fight for McCain/Palin; don’t let Obama’s weak performance this summer fool you – he will outspend McCain by three, four or five to one and he is a first rate campaigner, especially when he addresses a big crowd on a philosophical topic. Obama is a real, certified celebrity – based in part upon being the first black person, in a country captivated by racial matters, to have a real shot at he highest office in the land. America is, also, a celebrity obsessed place and just being famous – celebrated – is a ‘qualification’ of sorts. But, McCain is a genuine hero and heroics, especially the stoical heroism* he displayed, plays well, too. Americans may, enviously, worship celebrities but they want to be heroes. I’m guessing that authentic heroism will trump celebrity.
McCain and Palin also have the advantage, if one can call it that, of having sons on active service: McCain’s son Jimmy is a marine and Palin’ son Track is a soldier. There is a perception in America that the rich and powerful manage to shield their sons from combat. ‘Ordinary’ folks, so goes the myth, bear the burdens and risks of combat while the children of privilege hide out in e.g. the Air National Guard.
But, I repeat, this is a presidential election and it will be won and lost by the presidential candidates: McCain and Obama. The role of he VP is, as Cactus Jack Garner (FDR’s VP from 1933 to 41) said, "not worth a bucket of warm piss." And that’s about the impact Joe Biden and Sarah Palin will have on the election, too.
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* Consider the words of the US national anthem: It is a story of heroic endurance and the marvel of seeing, in “the dawn’s early light” that, after a night of ferocious bombardment, their “flag was still there.”
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Though, I would question the myth of historic endurance seen in the U.S in this respect. The U.S anthem is about the War of 1812, which the Americans started and lost.
Biden has a son who has seen active duty. Obama's children are too young for combat. The father of young children is something that has appeal also. That's why in our own country the PM is playing on precisely that in the pre-election ads.
I do think that McCain is more vulnerable on the VP pick as due to his age and health problems. There is a reasonable risk that if McCain wins the presidency for four or eight years that he will become non compos mentis , too sick to remain in office and even possibly die in office. If McCain wins for eight years he will exit the White House at 80. While there have been many elder statesman, Konrad Adenauer for one, with all due respect, McCain is no Adenauer.
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I maintain that John McCain is a better choice, for Canada, for the office of President of the United States, but this article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s National Post, says that I may be wrong:
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=756804
Well, I accept the data for whatever it’s worth, but I think that Canada’s interests go a wee bit beyond the TSX and, broadly, I think we will be less well off under Obama than McCain.
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=756804
Well, I accept the data for whatever it’s worth, but I think that Canada’s interests go a wee bit beyond the TSX and, broadly, I think we will be less well off under Obama than McCain.
A
aesop081
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stegner said:
Let me "un-confuse" you.
Do you , or have ever, lived in the United States ?
I disagree ER....I watched the introduction of Palin into the race yesterday, and I think it is going to solidly lock the conservative vote to McCain, and if she can continue to carry it off, will stifle, if not attract the people who are uneasy about Obama, either because he is black, or because he seems to good to be true....
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GAP said:
ON TOPIC:
And if, as I understand from some reports that I have read, it turns out to be someone that is legislatively "Pro-Choice" but personally "Pro-Life", for traditional marriage but in favour of gay rights and civil unions, and a "Creationist" that only asks that Creationism be given a hearing alongside evolution so that debate and individual choice is possible..... she may end up pulling some moderate-centrist (Blue-Dog?) Hillary supporting women from Obama.
In a 50:50 race it only needs one vote.
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aesop081
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stegner said:
Then i'm going to venture out and say that T6 has a better grasp and perspective on US politics than you do. Not simply for his residency but hes a pretty smart guy and is more involved in the process down there than you are.
Being a pretty long serving officer in that country's armed forces tend to give you a pretty good understanding of the inner working of its politics. A perspective i doubt you have, i this country or the US.
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GAP said:
I agree with you and I said yesterday that she will appeal to the highly social conservative base that delivered for George W Bush. It remains to be seen if that base will answer the call.
But, when the campaign heats up, in October, it will be Obama and McCain who will matter. IF Palin helps McCain to secure the social conservative activists then the race is close, it is McCain’s ace to lose.
Some time back I saw an analysis that went something like this (I’m too lazy to go look for it):
Most Likely Voters: Advantage to:
Middle class white adults (over 30) Even split
Seniors McCain
Lower middle class white adults McCain – IF Palin can bring them over
Upper middle class blacks Obama
Hispanics Even split
Young voters (under 30) Obama
All other blacks Obama, massively
In other words, Obama has an overall, numerical advantage but McCain leads amongst the most likely voters. The middle class whites also move towards McCain IF Palin can win over the religious right. Palin can help energize the social conservatives but, finally, McCain as to sell himself to most of the voters, including an overwhelming majority of Republicans, many Independents and some of the Reagan Democrats, too.
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Events in the world could hurt the democrats. Georgia helped McCain. The democrat position on energy helps McCain. If the democrats were smart they would allow domestic drilling and development of oil shale in Colorado and take that issue off the table. This is going to be the most exciting campaign since 2000. Polling data the week before the election will tell the story.Obama needs to be up 15 points to win. If McCain is up by 10 points it would indicate a landslide for McCain. This election will be a referendum on Obama. Whats strange is that with the economy and war the democrats should be a lock on the White House but so far Obama is far from closing the deal.
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E.R. Campbell said:
I am inferring from the above post that identity politics do play a large role in your analysis. What happened to Mr. Thucydides' principle that Conservatives place more stock on individual or personal stances on issues as opposed to voting by ethnic or class bloc, which he emphasized earlier in this thread, IIRC? So one must now admit that group or identity politics cannot be totally ignored?
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I think 'identity' politics are hugely important.
Classical liberals, like me, are supposed to value the individual, regardless of race, creed etc, but the only barely smart liberals, classical or not, and conservatives and independents recognize that most people share values that can be roughly defined by age, sex, race, education, income level and (despite 21st century communications) region.
I think classical liberalism will never succeed for the same reason communism is always bound to fail: humanity is not perfectible.
Classical liberals, like me, are supposed to value the individual, regardless of race, creed etc, but the only barely smart liberals, classical or not, and conservatives and independents recognize that most people share values that can be roughly defined by age, sex, race, education, income level and (despite 21st century communications) region.
I think classical liberalism will never succeed for the same reason communism is always bound to fail: humanity is not perfectible.
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CougarDaddy said:
CougarDaddy, perhaps you might want to review my post on populations, set theory, Venn Diagrams and kaleidoscopes. Averages allow you to predict the probability of a group acting in a given manner. However, even though a specific individual may share many traits with the group I will still maintain it is impossible to predict that individual's actions.
If you don't mind having the odd individual act outside of the parameters of your predicted model then it is safe to rely on probabilities and group theory. (Losing an individual voter who changes her/his mind in the booth does not present a catastrophic failure risk)
If however there is a risk of any given individual gaining access to the US's nuclear arsenal then you might not find it sufficient to rely on group dynamics and probabilities. One "Outlier" may make for a very bad day.
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Why do people vote the way they do ? The $64,000 question. People vote based on heritage - I vote democrat because my parents did. They vote the party despite the party's stance on issues. Identity voting is unique to this cycle as historically its been 2 white guys running for President. I am an issues voter. If the candidate is strong on national defense he/she has my vote . Others vote on their own hot button issues like taxes,economy,war or the environment.This cycle we have seen blacks and minorities supporting a black candidate irregardless of his policies. The democrats have spent alot of money trying to get the MTV vote and so far they just dont vote.
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