Québec Election: 7 Apr 14

[Brad Sallows]

I've noticed that progressive are never "like that anymore" (whatever "that" was); and while it may be true as a statement of fact relative to a particular value of "that", it's a mistake to conflate that with "and could never make another grave mistake".

Morality is a measure of intentions, means, and ends.  There is no pass for 1 out of 3, or even 2 out of 3.

The most important role of keystone legal documents (charters, constitutions, etc) is to spell out how governments are constrained and restrained.  Spelling out limitations on the person rather than the state and providing get-out-of-jail clauses for governments are signs of dangerously weak documents.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Good news, in my opinion, from an article in the Globe and Mail which says that "The PQ fell to 28 per cent support, nine percentage points behind the Liberals ..."

Four days to go.

 

[Remius]

Good news, in my opinion, from an article in the Globe and Mail which says that "The PQ fell to 28 per cent support, nine percentage points behind the Liberals ..."

Four days to go.

Much more important is the fact that the francophone vote is tied.  That is an important number to watch and is surprising (as rightly stated in the article).  Of course undecided voters could swing things.

I imagine that the PQ is hoping they can prevent a Liberal majority and try and keep them at a minority situation.  Amazing how they went from possibly forming a strong majority to possibly losing badly.  And they managed to do it to themselves on the merits of their fantasy land ideas. 

I suspect that heads will roll and party purges will occur.  Marois, dubbed the Concrete Lady, won't survive this.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Good analysis, Crantor, thanks for that. I'm an outsider and I miss many of the nuances.

Milpoints awarded. 

 

[upandatom]

I agree,
I also read that PKP is not doing so well. He hasnt the support with his constituents they thought he would.

 

[Jungle]

Much more important is the fact that the francophone vote is tied.  That is an important number to watch and is surprising (as rightly stated in the article).  Of course undecided voters could swing things.

Yes, and the Franco vote is rarely head-to-head; it is usually in favour of the PQ. The present situation is significant.

I imagine that the PQ is hoping they can prevent a Liberal majority and try and keep them at a minority situation.  Amazing how they went from possibly forming a strong majority to possibly losing badly.  And they managed to do it to themselves on the merits of their fantasy land ideas.

Right now, the PLQ is looking at a good chance of forming a majority govt.

I suspect that heads will roll and party purges will occur.  Marois, dubbed the Concrete Lady, won't survive this.

They always do; after the loss, the PQ lynch mob will come out and take care of Marois. The party is known for eating it's leaders after a defeat.

 

[Privateer]

Marois, dubbed the Concrete Lady, won't survive this.

Turns out it was that special Quebec concrete.  http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/montreal-is-falling-down/

 

[a_majoor]

PKP is also likely to see the ROC take its revenge as well, dumping readership and viewership to Quebecor properties like the Sun chain of newspapers and Sun TV. He personally may be insulated from heavy financial losses, but the employees of Quebecor will not be so fortunate.

In a way that is sad, since this is probably the only legacy media outlet that connects with the populist strain in the body politic, and provides an outlet for both readers and writers who are not wedded to the "Laurentian consensus", but he did it to himself.

 

[Infanteer]

Much more important is the fact that the francophone vote is tied.  That is an important number to watch and is surprising (as rightly stated in the article).

Yes, and the Franco vote is rarely head-to-head; it is usually in favour of the PQ. The present situation is significant.

Could this be the death knell of separatism as a real political movement in Quebec?  Could the PQ be moving to the "buzzing fly" nature of Alberta First?

 

[Brad Sallows]

I expect it will take another couple of generations to cough its lungs out completely.  I suppose demographic and social changes have killed separatism, but separatists haven't figured it out yet.  Canadians can exchange news and views much more readily than they could the last couple of go-arounds, so excluding curmudgeons such as myself, Canadians - younger ones in particular - are forming more cross-country ties.  French as a language in Canada is not going away.  It has become apparent that no one province should assume it will be prosperous forever; being a national citizen of Canada poses more opportunities than being a national citizen of Quebec.  Immigrants to Quebec from outside Canada may select Quebec for linguistic and cultural reasons, but presumably their main aim was to immigrate to Canada.

The appeal for separatism may continue to be very strong, but only in diminishing, relatively homogeneous regions.

 

[Jungle]

Could this be the death knell of separatism as a real political movement in Quebec ?

I would not go that far, but it could be the beginning of the end, as Brad Sallows explained. I wish the PQ was given the same treatment as the BQ and separatism become a marginal movement.

 

[ModlrMike]

I expect that if the Liberals form even a minority government that Ms Marois will not get a chance to fall on her sword. More likely "night of the long knives".

 

[Remius]

Could this be the death knell of separatism as a real political movement in Quebec?  Could the PQ be moving to the "buzzing fly" nature of Alberta First?

I doubt that it will ever truly go away but it may become a much more fringe movement.  Not unlike confederate secessionists in the U.S.  (my many trips to South Carolina has shown me that many people there truly believe teh south shall rise again).

But an interesting analysis last night with CBC's At Issue Panel was that this would set back the PQ agenda some 30 years (meaning it's essentially dead).  What gives this more meaning that anything we have heard before is that this statement is coming from PQ and Bloc insiders. 

They are essentially stating that this election is indeed a pseudo-referendum (a sort of referendum on a referendum) since it would seem that the subject of holding a referendum is front and center and will most probably be rejected en masse.

The threat of seperation might indeed be relagated to the most militant types but Quebec Nationalism will be as strong as ever.

 

[Infanteer]

Which is fine - "provincialism" (if that's what we call provincial nationalism) is fine in Canada.  It will be far easier to have those discussions with all 10 provinces with separatism put into a box and pack away.

 

[upandatom]

I doubt that it will ever truly go away but it may become a much more fringe movement.  Not unlike confederate secessionists in the U.S.  (my many trips to South Carolina has shown me that many people there truly believe teh south shall rise again).

But an interesting analysis last night with CBC's At Issue Panel was that this would set back the PQ agenda some 30 years (meaning it's essentially dead).  What gives this more meaning that anything we have heard before is that this statement is coming from PQ and Bloc insiders. 

They are essentially stating that this election is indeed a pseudo-referendum (a sort of referendum on a referendum) since it would seem that the subject of holding a referendum is front and center and will most probably be rejected en masse.

The threat of seperation might indeed be relagated to the most militant types but Quebec Nationalism will be as strong as ever.

Ill agree to an extent, but I think its more of a new generation. Educated, the internet has been and is a wonderful tool. Its spreading information, faster and easier then before. People are being educated and not sheltered on what is happening Nationally, and Provincially around them instantaneously via smart phones, FB, Twitter, you name it.

The last election she used the students to gain the edge with anti corruption (huh funny how the tables have turned and now the PQ are being investigated). With the tables turned, more prominent issues are at hand such as Jobs, infrastructure and health care.

I honestly believe the typical seperatist is just getting to old to fight the good fight anymore. those that voted in 95, minimum age of 18, are now possibly educated, have careers, and are now 37, comfortable in their lives and realising a Country of their own might not be the best thing.

The new generation of voters wants to stay in Canada, they are proud to be Canadian, and are willing to fight to stay Canadian.

I fully believe that is why there has been a huge swing in the popularity vote. (and the fact many realise a Country of Quebec would be third world and broke as #%^$)

 

[dapaterson]

I recall discussions with a friend in the early 90s (before the 95 referendum).  At that point, his intent was to go into business.  So, his philosophy was "We'll have a referedum, I'll vote yes, it will fail, then we'll abandon that idea and start voting Reform."

I don't think any of the political parties has managed to tap into Quebec's youth - they aren't Levesque era Pequistes, but nor do they respect the patronage laden Liberal brand.  My personal view is that the last federal election, with the NDP wave, may not have been an abberation.  A new provincial soical democrat party without the sovereignist trappings could have significant success.

 

[observor 69]

"A new provincial soical democrat party"

I just got a headache reading the Wiki history of various permutations of Social Democratic parties in Quebec.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I just saw this on Twitter:

Pour rappel, avant les sondages de la fin de semaine, voici la situation actuelle:
(As a reminder, before the polls this weekend, here is the current situation

Source: Le Journal de Montreal

There are 125 seats in the National Assembly, a majority requires 63 seats. The polls suggests there is a good chance of a Liberal majority.


Edit, to add:

And the Montreal Gazette suggests that the vote split will produce a "Slim Liberal majority ... as PQ continues to slide". The Gazette pegs the Liberals at 41% support, PQ at 29%, CAQ at 19% and Québec solidaire at 7%.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And the above is supported by this analysis, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Angus Reid Global, supports the above polls:

http://www.angusreidglobal.com/polls/48942/quebec-liberals-lead-on-eve-of-final-campaign-weekend-movement-of-caq-vote-hurts-pq/

Quebec Liberals lead on eve of final campaign weekend; movement of CAQ vote hurts PQ
Marois deemed best premier by 20% of eligible voters.

April 4, 2014

The Quebec Liberals under leader Philippe Couillard head into the last days of that province’s election campaign with a comfortable lead over Premier Pauline Marois’ Parti Québécois, thanks in part to a shift in the CAQ vote.

A poll conducted by Angus Reid Global four days before election day indicates 39 per cent of likely voters in Quebec are backing the Liberals, compared to 27 per cent for the PQ and 25 per cent for the CAQ under François Legault. Québec Solidaire led by Françoise David earns the backing of 7 per cent of likely voters.

Leader Momentum

The majority (56%) believe Quebec is on the wrong track, including most past Liberal and CAQ voters (69% and 75% respectively). Troublingly for the PQ: one-third (34%) of that party’s past voters also see the province on the wrong track.

Across all voters Couillard is top choice for best premier (30%) followed by Legault (23%) and Marois (20%).

More bad news for Marois: while nine per cent of Quebecers say their opinion of the PQ leader has improved since the beginning of the election campaign, 50 per cent say it’s worsened. By comparison, 27 per cent of Quebec voters say their say their opinion of Coulliard has improved since the writ dropped while one-third (34%) have dimmed their view of the Quebec Liberal leader. François Legault has fared best in this campaign – with 37 per cent thinking better of him in the last four weeks and 15 per cent thinking worse.

The CAQ Shift

Unfortunately for Legault, his positive personal momentum is not translating to party momentum. Instead, it appears many Quebec voters who chose the CAQ in 2012 are thinking more seriously about the Liberals and Couillard. Voter retention tells the story: three quarters (74%) of likely voters supporting the PQ in this election also chose that party in 2012. In the case of the Liberals, 85 per cent of their 2012 supporters who are likely voters say they’ll back them again this time.  Fewer of the CAQ’s past voters are on side this time. Among likely voters supporting the CAQ, 58 per cent were there in 2012. One third (33%) of the 2012 CAQ vote has moved to the Quebec Liberals, while the rest (7%) has shifted support to the PQ. It is possible that some support may swing to the CAQ in the last days of the campaign should the Liberals start to look too strong for past CAQ voter comfort.

Key Campaign Issues 

The arrival of PQ star candidate Pierre-Karl Peladeau on the campaign hustings was a game changer for Marois and her party – but not in the way the leader intended. While Pleadeau raised the spectre of Quebec separation, Quebecers had other issues on their minds. Half (51%) say the economy and jobs was the most important issue in the election. About as many (49%) said health care was foremost in their mind, followed by government spending/debt (29%). One quarter chose corruption. The same number chose the Charter of Values. Only 12 per cent of Quebecers identified a sovereignty debate/referendum as the most important campaign issue.

The Referendum and Sovereignty Scare 

Rather than being an ace in the hole for the PQ, the possibility of a referendum became the party’s greatest liability, even among its own supporters. Nearly 70 per cent of Quebecers (68%) say they are against a referendum in the next five years.

Among Quebecers who say they will vote for the PQ on Monday, fewer than half (45%) believe a majority PQ win would give the party a mandate to hold a referendum if it felt conditions were right. More than half (55%) of likely PQ voters say the party hasn’t been clear enough with Quebecers on this subject.

When asked if a referendum were held tomorrow, twice as many Quebecers say they’d vote against sovereignty than for it (59% to 28%). When analysed by party – 94 per cent of past Liberal voters would choose to stay with Canada, as would 80 per cent of CAQ past voters, and one-fifth of past PQ voters.

Going back a month, to the post that opened this thread, it appeared then, to me, that a PQ majority was possible.

It now looks, to me again, anyway, as if Mme Marois has totally bungled a campaign that was her's to win ~ based on the popularity of the Quebec Charter of Values amongst older voters in key, largely French speaking ridings ~ and a PLQ majority is not more likely.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Chantal Hébert, in the Toronto Star, strikes me as being someone who understands Quebec and here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright from that journal, are her thoughts on Monday's election:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/04/04/quebec_election_campaign_a_devastating_blow_to_sovereigntists_hbert.html

Quebec election campaign a devastating blow to sovereigntists: Hébert
Over the past month Quebec voters have all but spelled the three letters of the word NON in boldfaced characters for Pauline Marois to read.

By: Chantal Hébert National Affairs, Published on Fri Apr 04 2014

MONTREAL

It is not necessary to wait for the votes to be cast and counted in Monday’s Quebec election to know the score in the longer game of sovereignty versus federalism.

The campaign has been a washout for sovereigntists. At a minimum it stands to set their referendum agenda back for years. Some PQ insiders are gloomily thinking decades.

Over the past month Quebec voters have all but spelled the three letters of the word NON in boldfaced characters for Pauline Marois to read.

As a result a party that has steadfastly refused to take no for an answer since the 1995 referendum can no longer reasonably argue that the two-thirds of Quebecers who oppose either a referendum and/or sovereignty don’t really mean it.

For if the PQ fails to be re-elected on Monday it will be as a result of sovereigntist overkill and premature referendum jubilation; not because it has been outwitted by its federalist opponents or defeated with powerful outside help.

Seven years ago Stephen Harper came up with a Quebec-friendly federal budget on the last week of a hard-fought provincial campaign and made the difference between victory and defeat for Jean Charest’s Liberals.

But Quebec has soured on the Conservatives since then and this time the prime minister has kept a studiously low profile as have Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau.

Nor were strategic strokes of genius the stuff that the 2014 Quebec Liberal campaign was made off.

With the same campaign but without so much early help from the PQ in putting a referendum in the window of the next mandate, the Quebec Liberals would almost certainly not find themselves so close to winning power on the last weekend before the vote.

One would be hard-pressed to come up with a bold policy in Philippe Couillard’s platform and no one will accuse the rookie Liberal leader of having skewered Marois with clever rhetoric over the past few weeks.

As a debater his skills do not come anywhere near Mulcair’s prosecutorial talent.

Many sovereigntists are truly shocked and profoundly saddened by the turn of events in this campaign. Yet they actually had cause to see it coming.

Prior to the 1995 Quebec referendum Jacques Parizeau frequently used a hockey analogy to describe the steps that would lead to the province’s secession from the Canadian federation.

The first period involved Lucien Bouchard and the Bloc Québécois winning a massive victory in the 1993 federal election.

Over the second period a year later Parizeau brought a majority Parti Québécois government to power in Quebec.

Once sovereigntist control of the Quebec ice in both venues was in hand, all was in place to bring the game to a victorious conclusion in a third period. In the end Parizeau’s carefully calculated gambit was lost by the narrowest of margins.

Unlike her federal counterpart Harper, Marois is not an avid student of hockey history.

By comparison to Parizeau in the early nineties, she was already behind after two periods when she called the election that she hoped would lead to a winning referendum shootout in her next mandate.

In the first period in 2011 the NDP took the Bloc Québécois out of play. The sovereigntist party may never recover from the body hit it took in the last federal election.

In the Quebec election a year later Marois barely won against a federalist team fatigued by a decade on the ice and distracted by a festering social crisis.

Now, in the final minutes of the third period, a traumatizing defeat is staring Marois in the face. Win or lose next week, the PQ knows that a referendum in the next mandate has become a non-starter.

If the party loses power on Monday, it will be back in opposition after having spent only 18 months of the past decade in office.

It may be that the loss of traction of sovereignty is turning the Parti Québécois into little more than the spare wheel of Quebec politics.

Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

I think we need to remember Jacques Parizeau's hockey game analogy. While I will be mightily pleased if the PQ is humbled on Monday, I do not believe it will finally douse the fires of separatism. Charismatic leaders like Bouchard and skilled political tacticians like Parizeau can, and will try to resurrect it. A PLQ victory on Monday will signal an intermission, not the end of the game.