Replacing the Subs

[KevinB]

Canadians are increasingly in favour of increasing defence spending:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/polls-canadians-defence-spending-trump-1.7133640#:~:text=The%20Pollara%20survey%20polled%20support,or%20minus%20two%20per%20cent.

So the government could do it, without a political price.

Yes but…
At what cost, doesn’t grow on trees (as much as some Politicians like to pretend it does). Right now it appears the CSC are going to be fitted for not with a number of required items.

Personally I don’t see a viable Sub fleet for Canada - as given the Arctic and the ranges needed for other things, I think if the RCN was to get a major plus up, SSN’s are the only option that make sense— but I don’t see the cost (and the dreaded Nuclear word) being palatable. AIP boats aren’t suited for under ice work, other than at the periphery, and when one looks at the ranges required by Canada, you’d need around 24 boats to have a fleet on station with transit times to the periphery coming from both coasts.
The whole 4=1 sub thing, so 8 active boats, East Coast and West Coast Ports equals 4 boats patrolling at Coast from each coast, which would really be 2 choke point locations. Maybe with new boats you could get away with 18 for a period.

I don’t see a solid ROI from that.

Perhaps it’s time to let the Sub dreams for Canada die, and focus on other Maritime roles.

 

[YZT580]

No country is going to care about Canada’s sub fleet or lack there of.

No money, and no push from the outside.


Except that isn’t how the GoC costs things.
Your need to find 6-7 B to fund that program.


I don’t see you getting 15 CSC sadly.
Nor the subs.



There could be a number of things acquired if Canada had a plan…

your last statement is sadly, too true but if the current government can allocate another half trillion to their accounts they can certainly buy a dozen or more subs. That's chump change for them. What you have to demonstrate is the number of votes they will earn in exchange

 

[KevinB]

Without a Domestic sub industry - you’re not getting votes there.

 

[suffolkowner]

The Netherlands Select Naval Group for its New Submarines - Naval News

The Dutch government announced today it has "provisionally selected" French shipbuilder Naval Group to build its future submarines...

www.navalnews.com

I heard this rumour the other day but found it hard to believe but here we are with another choice on the board

 

[Rainbow1910]

The Netherlands Select Naval Group for its New Submarines - Naval News

The Dutch government announced today it has "provisionally selected" French shipbuilder Naval Group to build its future submarines...

www.navalnews.com

I heard this rumour the other day but found it hard to believe but here we are with another choice on the board

Not particularly surprising considering the pedigree of the French as submarine producers/exporters and the inexperience plaguing the same Swedish industries. The fact that the French bid also beat out the German bid as well is interesting, perhaps the Barracuda does have a chance in a future Canadian competition.

 

[OldSolduer]

With every day that goes by without movement the more expensive subs will be until the GoC states "we will no longer possess a capable submarine fleet. They are too expensive and we have a (pharmacare or dental) program to fund. Last one out please pull the plug and shut the doors"

 

[Kirkhill]

The Netherlands Select Naval Group for its New Submarines - Naval News

The Dutch government announced today it has "provisionally selected" French shipbuilder Naval Group to build its future submarines...

www.navalnews.com

I heard this rumour the other day but found it hard to believe but here we are with another choice on the board

The Dutch are trying hard to keep NATO and the EU all rowing in the same direction.

The Dutch are particularly attached to the Brits through the Netherlands Marine Corps and with that is a member of the Joint Expeditionary Force that connects the North Sea nations to the Baltic nations. They have a history of conflict.

The Dutch are also attached to the German Faction of NATO and the EU through a shared German-Netherlands Corps and through Germany, as well as Britain, a strong tie to the US.

The Dutch are also attached to the French Faction of NATO and the EU through NATO's JFC Brunssum.

With the Balts, the Finns and the Scandinavians finding common cause with the Poles and Ukrainians, while Macron discovers his inner Napoleon in time for elections and Scholtz discovers his inner pacifist, allying with Switzerland and Austria in a local air defence system, the Dutch are being pulled in three directions.

I suspect that the Submarine programme is at least as much a political sop to Macron as it is a technically proficient solution.

Fortunately for all parties concerned Sunak and Starmer are at least as clueless in London as Biden and Trump are in Washington.

 

[KevinB]

With every day that goes by without movement the more expensive subs will be until the GoC states "we will no longer possess a capable submarine fleet. They are too expensive and we have a (pharmacare or dental) program to fund. Last one out please pull the plug and shut the doors"

Honestly unless there is a major infusion of capital into the CAF Budget there isn’t money for Subs as it is.

With no Canadian Submarine business, it’s a no win from a jobs standpoint. The CSC have Canadian shipyards. From what I can see neither GD or LocMart Canadian subsidiaries are doing any mission systems for subs either — so you don’t even get spinoff work, as you did with the P-8 and F-35 despite their US origins.

The only Job issue could come from a foreign manufacturer who sets up a JV to build in Canada — and then just then you may be able to find a GoC that could see it as some sort of social welfare program.

But I don’t see that occurring without DND making commitments prior, so one ends in a chicken v egg scenario.

 

[suffolkowner]

Honestly unless there is a major infusion of capital into the CAF Budget there isn’t money for Subs as it is.

With no Canadian Submarine business, it’s a no win from a jobs standpoint. The CSC have Canadian shipyards. From what I can see neither GD or LocMart Canadian subsidiaries are doing any mission systems for subs either — so you don’t even get spinoff work, as you did with the P-8 and F-35 despite their US origins.

The only Job issue could come from a foreign manufacturer who sets up a JV to build in Canada — and then just then you may be able to find a GoC that could see it as some sort of social welfare program.

But I don’t see that occurring without DND making commitments prior, so one ends in a chicken v egg scenario.

If we take 5 yrs to run a competition and another 5 yrs for the build were looking at 10 yrs down the road best case scenario. Like many things in the CAF we are running up against our own constraints. Can we fast track the procurement? Do we want to? Or maybe its a capability that is sacrificed on the budget altar?

 

[YZT580]

If we take 5 yrs to run a competition and another 5 yrs for the build were looking at 10 yrs down the road best case scenario. Like many things in the CAF we are running up against our own constraints. Can we fast track the procurement? Do we want to? Or maybe its a capability that is sacrificed on the budget altar?

Is there enough time between now and the next election to run a competition for subs and reach a decision: say it had to be basically off the shelf. What an albatross to hang on a new government that has to try and dig their way out of the financial mess that they will find.

 

[OldSolduer]

Is there enough time between now and the next election to run a competition for subs and reach a decision: say it had to be basically off the shelf. What an albatross to hang on a new government that has to try and dig their way out of the financial mess that they will find.

18 months give or take a few days? About enough time to dither and kick the can down the road some more....

 

[lenaitch]

Is there enough time between now and the next election to run a competition for subs and reach a decision: say it had to be basically off the shelf. What an albatross to hang on a new government that has to try and dig their way out of the financial mess that they will find.

No future government is bound. Pay some cancellation penalties or whatever, complain about the previous crooks buying Cadillacs and move on.

 

[KevinB]

Is there enough time between now and the next election to run a competition for subs and reach a decision: say it had to be basically off the shelf. What an albatross to hang on a new government that has to try and dig their way out of the financial mess that they will find.

Generally the Government has rules that you can’t run a program without funding. It requires a staff to generate the requirements, so it’s not a zero sum game.

With JSS and CSC, does the RCN have program staff to even generate a requirement document?

 

[ArmyRick]

No future government is bound. Pay some cancellation penalties or whatever, complain about the previous crooks buying Cadillacs and move on.

Like '93, "No 'Elicopters!"

 

[OldSolduer]

Like '93, "No 'Elicopters!"

That's "Cadillac elicopters"

 

[Good2Golf]

The only Job issue could come from a foreign manufacturer who sets up a JV to build in Canada — and then just then you may be able to find a GoC that could see it as some sort of social welfare program.

SNC Lavelin AtkinsRéalis sees a way ahead with NAVAL Group in France to provide AIP-powered Barracuda submarines to Canada…

 

[suffolkowner]

I think its unknown at this time whether the Dutch subs will have an AIP or go with more batteries. As far as any local involvement it would seem like the SK have the inside track on that as both have partnered up with Babcock

 

[Kirkhill]

Without a Domestic sub industry - you’re not getting votes there.

What do you mean by a submarine?

Products - International Submarine Engineering

For over 40 years, we have been the marine engineering company of choice when a complex custom solution is required.

ise.bc.ca

 

[GR66]

The USN is installing a revolutionary new drive system in its Virginia Class SSNs that make them virtually undetectable with passive sonar. Definitely something the RCN should look at for our replacement subs!

U.S. Navy Submarine First In World Fitted With Silent Caterpillar Drive - Naval News

Submarines use stealth to dominate the seas, presenting an illusive yet deadly threat. Now U.S. Navy submarines will take stealth to a new level. American submarines will now be fitted with magnetohydrodynamic drive.

www.navalnews.com

*please note the date on the article

 

[SeaKingTacco]

The USN is installing a revolutionary new drive system in its Virginia Class SSNs that make them virtually undetectable with passive sonar. Definitely something the RCN should look at for our replacement subs!

U.S. Navy Submarine First In World Fitted With Silent Caterpillar Drive - Naval News

Submarines use stealth to dominate the seas, presenting an illusive yet deadly threat. Now U.S. Navy submarines will take stealth to a new level. American submarines will now be fitted with magnetohydrodynamic drive.

www.navalnews.com

*please note the date on the article

Marko Ramius would approve…