Replacing the Subs

[Retired AF Guy]

Nothing out of Poland. Their PM tweeted 2 weeks ago that a decision was imminent and then nothing.

Seems to be have been some confusion about that. He said there would be a decision in a week and then went around and said Poland would make her choice before the end of the year.

And I think if Poland chooses the U212 CD (and most open source reporting seems to indicate that the European manufacturers have the edge over SK) then TKMS will drop out of the CPSP.

 

[PHughes]

A very informative discussion . . .

 

[PHughes]

Seems to be have been some confusion about that. He said there would be a decision in a week and then went around and said Poland would make her choice before the end of the year.

And I think if Poland chooses the U212 CD (and most open source reporting seems to indicate that the European manufacturers have the edge over SK) then TKMS will drop out of the CPSP.

Or TKMS would look at all the nations under contract (Norway, Poland) and shipyards that currently build Type 21(X) boats like Italy and optimize a global production chain that does final assembly of boats in Germany.

And Canada, a producer of MK 48 torpedo tubes (size format compatible with 212 CD tubes would be an excellent fit in that global production chain

Maybe

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Or TKMS would look at all the nations under contract (Norway, Poland) and shipyards that currently build Type 21(X) boats like Italy and optimize a global production chain that does final assembly of boats in Germany.

And Canada, a producer of MK 48 torpedo tubes (size format compatible with 212 CD tubes would be an excellent fit in that global production chain

Maybe

Mind you, if we went with KSS, it's likley the same companies could make the tubes for the later batches as well.

 

[Czech_pivo]

This may be something for us to keep a very careful eye on -

China targets five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, sending shares down 8%​

China sanctioned five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, escalating tensions with Washington.

The sanctioned subsidiaries are Hanwha Shipping LLC, Hanwha Philly Shipyard Inc., Hanwha Ocean USA International LLC, Hanwha Shipping Holdings LLC, and HS USA Holdings Corp, according to a statement from China’s Commerce Ministry.

“Hanwha’s subsidiaries in the U.S. have assisted and supported the U.S. government’s probes and measures against Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors. China is strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposes it,” a spokesperson at Mofcom said in a separate statement, translated by CNBC.

The order, effective immediately, will prohibit Chinese organizations and individuals from doing business with the sanctioned companies, the ministry said, adding that the move was intended to safeguard China’s sovereignty and security.

One can easily remove the words 'U.S. government's probes and ........' and add in 'the Canadian government's probes and' -

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/china-sanctions-five-us-subsidiaries-of-south-koreas-hanwha-ocean-over-their-ties-with-washington.html

 

[Rifleman62]

China targets five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean​

And Eby is purchasing Ferries from China.

 

[Czech_pivo]

China targets five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean​

And Eby is purchasing Ferries from China.

Hopefully those on here who are active CAF members and who may in fact be actively engaged on the submarine contract will see the above article and will factor it into the current decision making process.

 

[calculus]

Dodged a bullet:

Sweden’s A26 Submarine Programme Faces New Delays - Naval News

Sweden’s next-generation A26 Blekinge-class submarine programme has been hit by another major delay and soaring costs, pushing the first delivery to 2031 and raising total expenses to 25 billion SEK (2.3 billion EUR).

www.navalnews.com

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Dodged a bullet:

Sweden’s A26 Submarine Programme Faces New Delays - Naval News

Sweden’s next-generation A26 Blekinge-class submarine programme has been hit by another major delay and soaring costs, pushing the first delivery to 2031 and raising total expenses to 25 billion SEK (2.3 billion EUR).

www.navalnews.com

That probably means that its also out of the Polish sub project.

 

[Czech_pivo]

That probably means that its also out of the Polish sub project.

I think the Poles are going to go with the SK’s. They already seem to have a pretty solid relationship with them already

 

[PHughes]

I think the Poles are going to go with the SK’s. They already seem to have a pretty solid relationship with them already

Big boat for a small Baltic

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I think the Poles are going to go with the SK’s. They already seem to have a pretty solid relationship with them already

I was just reading an article that give the main preferences for the European suppliers, but their was the caveat that the Poles want a cruise missile capability, which I think would favour Hanwha.

 

[PHughes]

I was just reading an article that give the main preferences for the European suppliers, but their was the caveat that the Poles want a cruise missile capability, which I think would favour Hanwha.

Favour but not likely disqualify the 212CD

 

[Czech_pivo]

I was just reading an article that give the main preferences for the European suppliers, but their was the caveat that the Poles want a cruise missile capability, which I think would favour Hanwha.

If the Poles want cruise missile capability would they need to have a sub in the Baltic or, would it make more sense to have a sub that could operate up towards north Norway or beyond….

 

[Lumber]

I was just reading an article that give the main preferences for the European suppliers, but their was the caveat that the Poles want a cruise missile capability, which I think would favour Hanwha.

The Poles aren't interested in projected force aboard; they're all about defending against Russia. Why would they need a LACM capable sub? Wouldn't it make more sense to just buy land based LACMs?

Sure, a sub can provide a survivable platform. However, if you know anything about the Baltic, or even just look at a chart of the Baltic, subs can't really hide in the Baltic, because subs can't really sub in the Baltic.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The Poles aren't interested in projected force aboard; they're all about defending against Russia. Why would they need a LACM capable sub? Wouldn't it make more sense to just buy land based LACMs?

Sure, a sub can provide a survivable platform. However, if you know anything about the Baltic, or even just look at a chart of the Baltic, subs can't really hide in the Baltic, because subs can't really sub in the Baltic.

With the Swedes, Finns, Danes and Germans all having subs in the Baltic, does it really matter if the Poles add another 3-4 subs there?
The Poles will want to bring the fight to the Russians, having some subs that are nice and big with cruise missile capability gives them the chance to position these subs in the North Sea. Maybe having the chance to hit Murmansk is on their agenda.

 

[Kirkhill]

The Poles aren't interested in projected force aboard; they're all about defending against Russia. Why would they need a LACM capable sub? Wouldn't it make more sense to just buy land based LACMs?

Sure, a sub can provide a survivable platform. However, if you know anything about the Baltic, or even just look at a chart of the Baltic, subs can't really hide in the Baltic, because subs can't really sub in the Baltic.

Because they want a 2x4 to gain the mule's attention.

Tomahawk Land Attack Missile - Nuclear Block II

A cruise missile
With a nuclear warhead.

And if you had a nuclear deterrent putting it under water would put fewer citizens at risk than a land based threat.

Poland seeks access to nuclear arms and looks to build half-million-man army

Already a major spender within NATO, Warsaw has massive military plans as fears grow about the reliability of the U.S. as an ally against Russia.

www.politico.eu

If not a yankee TLAM-N then someone elses.

 

[Swampbuggy]

With the Swedes, Finns, Danes and Germans all having subs in the Baltic, does it really matter if the Poles add another 3-4 subs there?
The Poles will want to bring the fight to the Russians, having some subs that are nice and big with cruise missile capability gives them the chance to position these subs in the North Sea. Maybe having the chance to hit Murmansk is on their agenda.

Just as a note, the Danes do not currently operate subs in their Navy, though there has recently been some discussion about either procuring some new boats or strengthening ties with those that do. This doesn’t change your point that the Baltic could already be crowded with subsurface friendlies.

 

[Czech_pivo]

It’s crunch time for Poland to pick a new submarine design

Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s 2025 deadline nears for picking a winning proposal.

www.defensenews.com

It’s crunch time for Poland to pick a new submarine design​

Tusk said the planned contract is to be signed at government level, meaning a greater level of political partnership with the offering nation can be expected.
This will be a decision, given the scale of the investment in our security, that we will make government-to-government,” the prime minister said.

A spokesperson for the Polish ministry told Defense News last May its experts assigned the highest scores to the offers placed by Germany, Italy and Sweden. That said, while these three bids received the highest scores, the remaining three offers have not been discarded, according to the spokesperson.
“We have prepared an industrial cooperation offer to Poland that involves a transfer of technology and cooperation with PGZ and the Nauta shipyard to set up a 100% local, independent maintenance, repair, and operations capacity in Poland,” Hyunrok Park, a manager from Hanwha Ocean’s Naval Ship Overseas Business Team, told Defense News.

Hanwha Ocean hopes to secure Poland as the first export market for its KSS-III-class sub, all the while setting sights on Canada and Saudi Arabia, among others.

Canada has shortlisted Germany’s thyssenKrupp Marine Systems, which is also bidding for the Orca program, and Hanwha Ocean as the two potential suppliers for the nation’s program to purchase up to 12 conventionally-powered submarines.

 

[Underway]

Big boat for a small Baltic

I agree. They should go German/Norwegian on that boat. It's been designed specifically for the Baltic.