Russia in the 21st Century [Superthread]

[The Bread Guy]

A Congressional Research Service short report (3 pages) on Russian info-ops attached (source):

Pointing to several recent high-profile events, media reports suggest that Russia is engaging in activities that some may describe as Information Warfare (IW): the range of military and government operations to protect and exploit the information environment. These alleged events include "hacks" of servers of U.S. political parties and other groups; releases and possible manipulation of sensitive documents in an attempt to influence the upcoming U.S. presidential election; and the manipulation of publicly available information on Russian activities in Ukraine. The scale and frequency of attacks on U.S. information architecture raise issues for the United States, including whether the Department of Defense adequately conceptualizes and is organized to counter IW ...

 

[Kirkhill]

But, I believe, the question still stands: "where to from here?"

I don't believe that Putin honestly thinks that he can put Moscow at the centre of the world. 

And he seems to be having trouble keeping his cronies on side - what with them all having nasty accidents and all.

Perhaps his plan was summed up by Milton?

"Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven."

 

[a_majoor]

Putin's plan, insofar as he has an overarching plan, is probably based on Russian national "mythology". Most nations and people's have a defining mythology, like American Exceptionalism or the Britania Rules the Waves.

The general thrust of Russian Mythology as articulated buy Putin is Russia is the "Third Rome" and is in a unique position to unite the civilizations of the Orient and the West. Because of this unique position and mission, Russia needs to be a powerful nation capable of leading and uniting these different civilizations and leading them. (This may be the underlying source of Putin's lament that the dissolution of the USSR was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century). Some support of this hypothesis is  people like Aleksandr Dugin are in the outer circle, and Putin references Russian philosophers like Vladimir Solovyov in his speeches.

Now it is highly unlikely Putin has a three ring binder outlining his plan to unite East and West on his desk. Rather, the sort of world view of Russia having a historically important and dominant role in the world means that events which diminish Russia's position need to be countered and events which can expand Russia's role need to be exploited as much as possible.  Long term internal issues like the collapse of oil revenues and the drag of internal corruption and kleptocracy obviously hinder these efforts, but then again, these are his problems.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I don't believe that Putin honestly thinks that he can put Moscow at the centre of the world. 

Even if he's not one of the key guests at the party, will it be enough for him to be that, "well, you know, what'll he do if we DON'T invite him?" kinda guy?

 

[CougarKing]

The global oil glut isn't helping Putin's "pan-ethnic Russian" Fuhrer-saviour designs on Europe:  ;D

CNN Money

Russia is seriously running out of cash
by Ivana Kottasova  @ivanakottasova
September 16, 2016: 12:03 PM

Russia is bleeding cash at an alarming rate.
After almost two years in recession, the country's rainy day fund has shrunk to just $32.2 billion this month, according to the Russian Finance Ministry. It was $91.7 billion in September 2014, just before oil prices started to collapse.
And it's getting worse. Analysts expect the fund will shrink to just $15 billion by the end of this year and dry up completely soon after that.

"At the current rate, the fund would be depleted in mid-2017, perhaps a few months later," Ondrej Schneider, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, wrote in a note this week.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[CougarKing]

Putin/Palpatine: I am the Senate!".  ;D

Reuters

Pro-Putin party seen winning even greater sway in Russia's parliament
Reuters
By Andrew Osborn
10 hrs ago


MOSCOW, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The ruling United Russia party is expected to win even greater dominance over Russia's lower house in a parliamentary election on Sunday, showing that support for President Vladimir Putin is holding up despite sanctions and a deep economic slowdown.

The election for the Duma, or lower house, is being seen as a dry run for Putin's expected presidential campaign in 2018.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[Good2Golf]

...right up until the masses stop getting food when the Federal reserve runs dry, and those masses storm Tzar Putin's palace while he's eating cake...

 

[CougarKing]

Putin to revive the KGB as the MGB.

Veuer

Vladimir Putin allegedly planning to 'revive the KGB'
Duration: 00:59 19 hrs ago

President Vladimir Putin is planning to restructure the country's security services according to reports.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Russia:  Don't think we can't see you, Montenegro & Bosnia ...

The anticipated joining by Montenegro, and also Bosnia and Herzegovina, of NATO will not be good for relations with Russia, Russian Foreign Ministry European Cooperation Department Director Andrei Kelin said.

“NATO is currently pursuing extremely unfriendly policies on Russia, foreign troops are being deployed in the territory of the Baltic states. The joining of NATO in this situation will not increase stability, but will increase confrontation in the relations between countries,” he said at a young diplomats’ forum.

“I would ask for that to be borne in mind: Montenegro is now going to enter there, I know that they are encouraging Bosnia and Herzegovina [to do that] as well,” Kelin said. “This will not improve our relations,” he said.

 

[tomahawk6]

Putin views Obama with disdain and according to the article,might be moving forward to make life difficult for the Harvard professor turned President.Iskander to Kaliningrad and Russian power in Syria have the potential to cause a crisis between the US and Russia,that would force someone to blink.

http://observer.com/2016/10/putins-activation-of-iskander-m-ballistic-missile-is-a-message-to-obama/

It’s long been obvious that Vladimir Putin and his inner circle view Barack Obama with utter contempt. To the hard men in Moscow, who got their schooling in the KGB, our diffident, wordy Ivy League lawyer president is a weakling—almost a caricature of everything they despise about the postmodern West.

Here the Kremlin mirrors most Russians, who find Obama a puzzling and contemptible man. This is nothing new. I’ve heard remarkable put-downs of our commander-in-chief for years, going back to 2008, even from the mouths of highly educated Russians. Their comments are invariably earthy, insulting, and nowhere near politically correct.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Comintern 2.0?

The International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE) is establishing a club at the University of Melbourne and will be holding our Inaugural General Meeting (IGM) on Thursday, October 13. The IGM will be followed by a report and discussion on the urgent need to develop conscious political opposition to the growing dangers of a US-led imperialist war against China in Asia, and against Russia in Europe. We appeal to every student who opposes militarism, nationalism and the related assault on the living standards and democratic rights of the working class to attend the IGM and join and fight to build the IYSSE at University of Melbourne ...

I eagerly await similar protests being conducted against the OTHER nuclear super powers ...  :crickets:

Deja vu all over again?  This, from the U.K., 1980 ...

 

[cavalryman]

We never seem to run out of useful idiots, do we?

 

[Kirkhill]

Just wondering if Jeremy Corbyn turned up for that parade.  Don't know how useful he is though.  ???

 

[Journeyman]

http://observer.com/2016/10/putins-activation-of-iskander-m-ballistic-missile-is-a-message-to-obama/

I don't see it as a message to Obama; he's already a non-player.  It's more a message to the US and NATO in general.  After all, Putin had agreed previously to not deploy SS-26s to Kaliningrad in exchange for the US not deploying BMD systems further east.  That agreement hasn't changed, but he said 'screw it' anyway.

It's also useful for the Russian domestic audience, with the combination of on-going tough economic times and the return of cold winter, to keep the people focused on the evil Western boogeyman.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I don't see it as a message to Obama; he's already a non-player.  It's more a message to the US and NATO in general.  After all, Putin had agreed previously to not deploy SS-26s to Kaliningrad in exchange for the US not deploying BMD systems further east.  That agreement hasn't changed, but he said 'screw it' anyway.

Ah, the "Ukrainian border integrity deal" loophole - although I don't think the Poles or Lithuanians have been naive enough to lease out basing facilities to the Russians. 

It's also useful for the Russian domestic audience, with the combination of on-going tough economic times and the return of cold winter, to keep the people focused on the evil Western boogeyman.

:nod:

 

[vonGarvin]

Comintern 2.0?I eagerly await similar protests being conducted against the OTHER nuclear super powers ...  :crickets:

Deja vu all over again?  This, from the U.K., 1980 ...

Reminds me of the 1980s in Germany.  Many West German university students were out protesting the deployment of the Pershing II missiles by the US.  So were many East German students....

 

[The Bread Guy]

Reminds me of the 1980s in Germany.  Many West German university students were out protesting the deployment of the Pershing II missiles by the US.  So were many East German students....

With nobody complaining about the then-Soviet nukes - just like in N.America at the same time.

Speaking of nukes, lookit what Russsia's been up to:

• "(Northern Fleet) submarine "Novomoskovsk" fulfilled "Sineva" missile launch in the Barents Sea" (RUS MoD, in Russian)
• "From the cosmodrome "Plesetsk" promoted launch of intercontinental ballistic missile RS-12M "Topol" " (RUS MoD, in Russian)
• "SSBN "Georgiy Pobedonosets" Pacific Fleet has made a successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile" (RUS MoD, in Russian)

Meanwhile, the U.K. Daily Mail says "Russia orders all officials to fly home any relatives living abroad, as tensions mount over the prospect of a global war," but the original source article in Russian seems to talk more about the optics of Russian mucky-mucks having their kids educated overseas - more from myth-busting site Snopes here.

 

[MilEME09]

just keep an eye on the russian Embassy, if they are burning documents, better pack your kit

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Or better: keep your kit packed at all times. We reservists of the cold war certainly did ... just in case.

 

[fake penguin]

I read that  Russia could beat Nato in 60 hours.  But also in one year Nato could build up enough forces to hopefully defend against Russia. Is this because Russia has now a more powerful  military than the USA or is it all because of logistics  and where the fight would take place the reason Russia would destroy Nato?