Strange, this poll never made the news.....why?

[GAP]

10/18/2006 4:17:34 PM
Federal Conservatives maintain a solid lead in voter support, but gap with the opposition Liberals has narrowed over past six months
http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=611

OTTAWA: Nine months into its new mandate, the Conservative government led by Stephen Harper maintains its lead among decided voters, but the gap with opposition Liberals has narrowed over the past six months, according to a new survey by the Environics Research Group conducted in September-October. Current party standings are now very close to the actual vote recorded in the January 23rd election.

Party Support. This latest survey shows that, nationally, 37 percent of eligible and decided Canadian voters would support the Conservative Party if an election were held today, compared with 39 percent in June, and 41 percent in March. The Liberal Party, still under interim leadership, has picked up support over this period, and now stands at 28 percent Support for the New Democratic Party is at 18 percent (down 3 points since June), while the Green Party garners seven percent (up 2 points). Support for the Bloc Québécois in Quebec is at 38 percent (down 2 points since June). One in ten (10%) voters is currently undecided about which party might deserve his or her support.

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Approval of Party Leaders. A majority of Canadians currently approve of the jobs being done by Prime Minister Stephen Harper (53%) and NDP Leader Jack Layton (54%), both down three percentage points since June. Interim Liberal Party Leader Bill Graham now receives positive job ratings by 38 percent (up six points since June), compared with 36 percent who disapprove and another 26 percent who cannot say either way. Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe has earned 62 percent approval ratings in Quebec, up two percent since June.

More on link

 

[vonGarvin]

My take on the variances from the election results and now (assumption: the percentages for "now" are as is, that is no +/-, just for argument sake):
The Conservative pick up 1% from the BQ in Quebec
Liberals (down two) lose them to the NDP
The NDP (same as election) gain two from the Libs and lose two to the Greens
BLOC (down 2) lose that 1% to the Conservatives

NB: the election night results are rounded (they add up to 101)
So, in reality, perhaps the Bloc had 10.5% in Jan, and have 9.4% now, a difference of 1.1%, but still shows as 2%.

 

[Cardstonkid]

When the Lieberals vote in Bob Rae (He is the new favourite amongst the "experts" as their new leader they will run neck and neck with the Tories. When an Election is called the Lieberals will fall in approval in all areas of the Country (Except Toronto, of course) The result, another Tory minority Gov't, possible majority.

This prophesy is bought to you by the amazing Carmack!

Poll's don't mean much right now as voters are not paying attention.

The polls to watch will be the ones done around spring 2007, after the election call. Even then polls will have to be compared carefully.Watch the CTV / Global polls on one end (These media outlets bias against Tories) and the National Post sponsored polls on the other (they bias against NDP/ Liberals)

Should be an interesting 6 -12 months for all the political Junkies.