Syria Superthread [merged]

[57Chevy]

Quotes from article above;
"Russian naval forces believed to be protecting the embattled dictator 
"Position is also thought to allow quick evacuation to Moscow, if necessary."
:

He's probably getting chewed out by the bear, allegedly speaking.
(See also reply #555 link)


Russia Says It Supports U.N. Envoy for Syria (dated 12 Jan)
The New York Times

MOSCOW (Reuters) — Russia voiced support on Saturday for Lakhdar Brahimi, the special Syria envoy from the United Nations and the Arab League, but insisted that the exit of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, could not be a precondition for a deal to end the country’s conflict.

A Foreign Ministry statement after talks in Geneva on Friday with the United States and Mr. Brahimi, who the Syrian government has said is “flagrantly biased,” reiterated calls for an end to the violence in Syria, where more than 60,000 people have been killed since March 2011.

At the meeting with Mr. Brahimi and an American deputy secretary of state, William J. Burns, a Russian deputy foreign minister, Mikhail Bogdanov, “expressed unfailing support for Brahimi’s mission as the U.N.-Arab League special envoy on Syria,” the statement said.

The issue of Mr. Assad — who the United States, European powers and gulf-led Arab states say must step down to end what has escalated into a civil war — appeared to be a sticking point at the meeting.

“As before, we firmly uphold the thesis that questions about Syria’s future must be decided by the Syrians themselves,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said, “without interference from outside or the imposition of prepared recipes for development.”

Russia has been Mr. Assad’s most powerful international supporter during the nearly 22-month conflict, joining with China to block three Western- and Arab-backed United Nations Security Council resolutions intended to pressure him or push him from power.

In Geneva, Russia called for “a political transition process” based on an agreement by foreign powers last June.

Mr. Brahimi, who is trying to build on the agreement reached in Geneva on June 30, has met three times since early December with senior Russian and American diplomats, and he met Mr. Assad in Damascus.

Russia and the United States disagreed over what the June agreement meant for Mr. Assad, with Washington saying it sent a clear signal that he must go and Russia contending it did not.

In Washington, a spokeswoman for the State Department, Victoria Nuland, said there had been some progress toward a common view at Friday’s meeting, but she did not provide details.

Moscow says it is not propping up Mr. Assad and, as rebels gain ground in the war, it has given indications it is preparing for his possible exit. But it continues to insist he must not be forced out by foreign powers.

Analysts say President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia wants to prevent the United States from using military force or support from the Security Council to bring down governments it opposes.

(Article is shared with provisions of The Copyright Act)

 

[Journeyman]

Analysts say President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia wants.....

Which analysts?  It sure is easier to assess something when you have a more complete picture -- in this case, the source's credibility, potential biases, and possibly context of where this was "said."

 

[tamouh]

Intelligence sources told the Saudi daily paper al-Watan the president was being protected by Russia..........

Considering the source, I'm going to see there is no basis for it. Saudi media outlets are the least dependent in terms of real facts.

 

[57Chevy]

An interesting article on the soon to come implosion of Syria from Altantic Council (Viewpoint) and shared with provisions of the Copyright Act

Syria: Is It Too Late ?
by: Frederic C. Hof , dated 14 Jan
Article link

(Frederic C. Hof is a senior fellow of the Rafik Hariri Center
for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council and the former
Special Advisor for Transition in Syria at the US Department of State.)

Syria is dying. Bashar al-Assad has made it clear that the price of his removal is the death of the nation. A growing extremist minority in the armed opposition has made it clear that a Syria of citizenship and civil society is, in its view, an abomination to be killed. And those in the middle long begging for Western security assistance are increasingly bemoaning that it is already too late. Between the cold, cynical sectarianism of Assad and the white-hot sectarian hatred of those extremists among his opponents Syria already is all but gone, a body politic as numbingly cold and colorless as the harsh wintry hell bringing misery and hopelessness to untold numbers of displaced Syrians.

It might in fact be too late to save Syria from the diabolical ministrations of Assad and his enabling Salafist enemies. Indeed, the single-minded, self-centered destructiveness of foes who once cooperated in the killing of Iraqis and who now collaborate in the murder of Syria may be sufficiently powerful to block any effort at national salvation regardless of its source. By facilitating Assad's poison pill sectarian strategy Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia have facilitated the implantation of al-Qaeda (in the form of the Nusra Front) in Syria. By funneling arms and money to those calling for death to Alawites and the establishment of a Syrian emirate, donors in certain Gulf countries, Turkey, and elsewhere have advanced Assad's survival strategy with a toxic blend of tactical skill and strategic stupidity. As in “Murder on the Orient Express,” many hands have plunged the knife into a victim perhaps too far gone to be saved.

Yet even if one accepted, analytically, the "it's too late to save Syria" thesis, and the argument that saving Syria was never something the United States and its allies could do, can this be the basis of prudent policy? If Syria, as now appears likely, becomes a death star of failed statehood, will the effects of its ravaged carcass on the surrounding neighborhood be so benign as to present no challenges to US statecraft far more perilous than those presented by Syria now? Will the great sucking sounds of Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and perhaps Iraq being pulled into the black hole of what was once Syria become the next normal; chapter two in the "it's too late" saga? Will Americans at that point look back with regret at our reluctance to try to shape and influence when we may at least have had a chance to do so?

No doubt the foreign policy, intelligence, and national security organs of the US government have this matter under urgent review. While it would be wonderful if UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, with Russo-US help and Assad's acquiescence, could pull the "peaceful, managed transition" rabbit out of his hat, the odds of him doing so are low. Syria's course will most likely be determined by force of arms inside Syria. Those who fight will have much to say about how Syria (or pieces of Syria) will be ruled and by whom. If the United States decides that it will not enter this arena—that it will not try to dominate the logistical system governing the flow of arms into Syria so as to influence the emergence of winners and submergence of losers—then the decision should be a conscious one based on a thorough evaluation of capabilities, costs, and benefits.

Article continues at link.

 

[a_majoor]

The fighting continues. The Syrian forces are unable to dislodge the rebels, but the rebels do not have enough manpower, equipment or support to prevail either. This could become a prolonged slugfest like the Lebanese civil war of the late 1970's, or settle into a long running insurgency with multiple "sides" as the rebel coalition disintigrates and various religious and ethnic groups try to secure some sort of defensible enclave for themselves. We also need to be aware of what the various regional powers seek to gain in Syria as well, if we want to try and guess at the end state:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/01/24/syrian-jets-bomb-rebel-areas-near-damascus-as-assads-troops-battle-opposition-fighters-for-control-of-key-road/

Syrian jets bomb rebel areas near Damascus as Assad’s troops battle opposition fighters for control of key road
Barbara Surk, Associated Press | Jan 24, 2013 6:03 PM ET
More from Associated Press

BEIRUT – Syrian warplanes bombed rebel areas near Damascus on Thursday as President Bashar Assad’s troops battled opposition fighters for control of the road linking the capital to the country’s largest airport.

Assad’s forces are trying drive out rebels who have established enclaves in the suburbs. While the government has lost control of large swaths of territory in the country’s north and east, including parts of the northern city of Aleppo, the capital remains tightly secured.

Conditions in the city have worsened however, with prices for basic goods rising and fuel in short supply. U.S. officials said Thursday they believe Assad’s sister and mother have left the country, suggesting that hardship has reached even the leadership’s families.

Related
David Frum: Testing Obama’s ‘red lines’ on Syria
Casualties in Aleppo after explosion rocks main university: Syrian state-run TV
Syrian rebels free 48 Iranian detainees in first major prisoner swap of civil war
.
As the fighting continued, France’s foreign minister suggested that Assad’s fall was not imminent – a stark admission by a country that has been one of the most ardent supporters of the Syrian rebels.

Speaking in Paris, Laurent Fabius told reporters: “The solution that we hoped for – that is to say, Bashar’s fall, the rise of the opposition to power – there are no recent signs that are as positive as that.”

Meanwhile the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported bomb attacks and clashes in a number of Damascus suburbs, saying at least 13 people were killed. The group, which relies on a network of contacts inside Syria, said fighter jets bombed the southwestern suburbs of Daraya and Moadamiyeh, where rebels have been fighting regime forces for weeks.
 
Because of its strategic location near a military airport, Syrian troops have been pounding rebel positions in Daraya for weeks. Earlier this month, the government claimed its troops had regained control of much of the district.

Activists posted a video of the Daraya fighting online that showed artillery shells slamming into concrete buildings, sending plumes of thick, gray smoke into the sky.

Daraya is flanked by the districts of Mazzeh, home to the military air base, and Kfar Sousseh, where the government headquarters, the General Security intelligence agency’s head office and the Interior Ministry are located.

The Observatory also reported heavy fighting near Damascus International Airport and said the regime was shelling the town of Aqraba along the airport road.

State-run news agency SANA said troops have been battling rebels in the oil-rich province of al-Hasaka in the country’s northeast, killing and wounding several “terrorists” – the term the government and state media use to refer to rebels.

Also in the north, SANA said terrorists shot and killed a math teacher, Nabih Jamil al-Saad, on Wednesday near his home in the town of Hmaida in Raqqa province. A day earlier, rebels killed Mamdouh Abudllah Bin Abd Dibeh, a cardiologist, in front of his clinic in Sheik Mheddin area of Damascus, SANA said.

It was not clear if either the teacher or the doctor had ties to the regime. Rebels have targeted government officials, civil workers and prominent personalities, such as actors, who are known Assad supporters.

In a separate report, SANA said many residents of the central town of Salamiya in Hama province took part in a funeral procession for those killed in a car bomb explosion late Monday. The Observatory said earlier that at least 42 people were killed in an attack targeting the headquarters of a pro-government militia. SANA did not say how many died.

In photographs published by the official news wire, dozens of men are seen standing in front of 11 caskets, wrapped into Syrian flags. Another photograph by SANA shows hundreds of men rallying at what the official news wire said was a funeral procession at Salamiya’s al-Huriyeh square.
 
Also on Thursday, in what Syrian state TV said was a live broadcast, Assad was seen sitting cross-legged on the floor of the al-Afram mosque in Damascus during prayers marking Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

Assad’s public appearances have become rare as the civil war has consumed the country. He last appeared on January 6 at the Damascus Opera House, where he vowed in a televised address to keep fighting.

The U.S. officials who spoke about Assad’s family said they did not know where his mother, Anisa, was, although they thought his sister, Bushra, was in the United Arab Emirates. Bushra was married to Deputy Defense Minister Gen. Assef Shawkat, who was killed in a Damascus bomb attack in July that also killed three other top officials.

UAE officials have declined to comment on the issue, but have noted that Assad’s sister lived previously in the UAE and suggested she could have valid residency documents.

All officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

According to the United Nations, more than 60,000 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict, which began almost two years ago when opposition supporters took up arms to fight a brutal government crackdown on dissent.

- with files from Associated Press writers Albert Aji in Damascus, Syria, Matthew Lee in Washington and Brian Murphy in Dubai.

 

[57Chevy]

Syrian Chemical weapons threat weighs in worries for Israel that are overlaping the nuclear threat from Iran.
This article By Ian Deitch from Associated Press indicating the possibility of a pre-emptive strike
is shared with provisions of The Copyright Act.

Israel Warns of Attack on Syrian Chemical Weapons
ABC News

Israel could launch a pre-emptive strike to stop Syria's chemical weapons from reaching Lebanon's Hezbollah or al-Qaida inspired groups, officials said Sunday.

The warning came as the military moved a rocket defense system to a main northern city, and Israel's premier warned of dangers from both Syria and Iran.

Israel has long expressed concerns that Syrian President Bashar Assad, clinging to power during a 22-month civil war, could lose control over his chemical weapons.

Vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom said Sunday that Israel's top security officials held a special meeting last week to discuss Syria's chemical weapons arsenal. The fact of the meeting, held the morning after a national election, had not been made public before.

Shalom told the Army Radio station that the transfer of weapons to violent groups, particularly the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah, would be a game changer.

"It would be crossing a line that would demand a different approach, including even action," he said. Asked whether this might mean a pre-emptive attack, he said: "We will have to make the decisions."

Israel has kept out of the civil war that has engulfed Syria and killed more than 60,000 people, but it is concerned that violence could spill over from its northern border into Israel.

Israel deployed its Iron Dome rocket defense system in the northern city of Haifa on Sunday. The city was battered by Hezbollah rocket fire during a war in the summer of 2006. The military called the deployment "routine."

Iron Dome, an Israel-developed system that shoots down incoming short-range rockets, was used to defend Israeli cities during a round of hostilities with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, on Israel's southern flank, last November.

Yisrael Hasson, a lawmaker and former deputy head of Israel's Shin Bet intelligence agency, said Israel was closely following developments in Syria to make sure chemical weapons don't "fall into the wrong hands."

"Syria has a massive amount of chemical weapons, and if they fall into hands even more extreme than Syria like Hezbollah or global jihad groups it would completely transform the map of threats," Hasson told Army Radio.

"Global jihad" is the term Israel uses for forces influenced by al-Qaida. Syria's rebels include al-Qaida-allied groups.

Syria has rarely acknowledged possessing chemical weapons.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to threats from Syria and Iran at a Cabinet meeting Sunday. Iran is Syria's main regional ally.

"We must look around us, at what is happening in Iran and its proxies and at what is happening in other areas, with the deadly weapons in Syria, which is increasingly coming apart," he said.

Article continues at link...

 

[cupper]

Mass killing discovered in Aleppo

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/mass-killing-discovered-in-aleppo/2013/01/29/d22add00-6a22-11e2-95b3-272d604a10a3_story.html?hpid=z1

BEIRUT — The bodies of least 65 people shot in a mass killing were found in Aleppo on Tuesday, according to opposition activists.

A video posted online Tuesday showed many of the victims lying on the muddy banks of the Quweiq River in the Bustan al-Qasr neighborhood of southwestern Aleppo with their hands bound. Most appeared to have been shot in the head, and some of the victims appeared to be teenagers.

Bustan al-Qasr has been the site of heavy fighting in recent days as the Syrian military has launched several attacks to retake the neighborhood from rebel control.

Opposition activists said it was not clear who carried out the mass killing, when it happened or why. Since the bodies were fished out of the river, it was possible that the victims were shot somewhere outside the city, they said.

Some activists said the killing was probably carried out by the Syrian military or the pro-government shabiha militia and surmised that the victims could have been political detainees.

“We have a fear that they might be political prisoners from the central prison of Aleppo,” a reporter with the opposition Shaam News Network who goes by the name Majed Abdul Nour said in a Skype interview from Aleppo. “This river where we found them passes by the central prison.”

Opposition groups said they expected the number of dead to increase.

News of the massacre surfaced as President Obama pledged an additional $155 million in humanitarian aid for Syria on Tuesday.

“We’re under no illusions. The days ahead will continue to be very difficult,” Obama said in a statement. “But what’s clear is that the regime continues to weaken and lose control of territory.”

The announcement of increased aid comes a day before the International Pledging Conference for Syria is scheduled to be held in Kuwait. The conference, to be chaired by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, aims to raise funds to address the dire humanitarian needs of Syrian civilians inside the country as well as the tens of thousands of refugees who have escaped the fighting.

In New York, meanwhile, Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. special envoy to Syria, prepared to deliver what was expected to be a grim report on the situation in the country to the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday.

Brahimi appeared to be making some progress late last month in talks with Russia, the Syrian government’s most powerful foreign ally. But his efforts were undercut by a speech by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in early January that made it clear he would not leave power, one of the key demands of the opposition.

The United Nations recently announced that at least 60,000 people have been killed in the bloody fighting in Syria since the uprising began in March 2011. But the international body’s inability to stop that killing has angered some opposition activists.

“The United Nations doesn’t do anything,” said the director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group based in Britain, who uses the pseudonym Rami Abdulrahman. “They should investigate these bodies in Bustan al-Qasr. We gave them a lot of evidence of other killings, too, but they don’t act.”

In the video posted online Tuesday, the cameraman repeatedly mutters “God is great” while filming row after row of bodies in muddy clothes, many of them with pools of blood gathering beneath their heads on the banks of the Quweiq River. After a little more than three minutes of filming, shots ring out and the cameraman begins to run.

“The sniper is targeting me,” he says, before the video cuts off.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Israel attacks convoy near Syrian border - Reuters
As concerns rise over the fate of Syria's chemical weapons, the Lebanese Army reports IAF sorties over south Lebanon.

As Israel is becoming increasingly worried about the fate of Syria's chemical weapons arsenal, "Reuters" reports that Israeli aircraft have attacked a convoy allegedly transporting arms from Syria to Lebanon. An eye witness, a diplomat, said there was definitely a hit in the attack. The IDF spokesman declined to deny or confirm the report.

Earlier the Lebanese Army reported that the Israel Air Force (IAF) carried out sorties over south Lebanon yesterday and last night. The Lebanon media reports that at least seven IAF jets flew over coastal areas near Zidon. The Lebanese claim that, since Friday, IAF jets have repeatedly entered the country's air space, including over Baalbek near the Syrian border. The sources claim that the IAF conducted maneuvers for over nine hours.

Meanwhile, in Israel, rising fears that Syria's chemical weapons could end up in the hands of Hizbullah and other terrorist organization, Israel Postal Company Ltd. reports a three-fold rise in requests for gas masks at its distribution points nationwide. The number of gas masks distributed has risen from an average of 1,400 a day last week to over 4,000 gas masks distributed yesterday.

The Post Office has distributed 4.7 million gas masks to day. In the face of rising demand, it has asked the public to use call service, 171, to place orders for gas masks, which will be delivered by messenger to the callers' homes, instead of going to the distribution points.

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000818276&fid=1725

 

[a_majoor]

I suspect the rebels were behind this (despite everyone blaming Israel), regardless, anything which lessens Iranian influence in the region should be welcomed.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/02/15/senior-commander-of-irans-revolutionary-guards-assassinated-in-syria-reports/

Senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards assassinated in Syria: reports

Associated Press | Feb 15, 2013 12:31 AM ET
More from Associated Press
 
Prominent Iranian politicians and clerics led mourners at a funeral Thursday for a senior commander of the country’s powerful Revolutionary Guards who was killed this week while traveling from Syria to Lebanon, local media said.

The semiofficial Fars news agency identified the slain commander as Gen. Hassan Shateri, and said he was in charge of reconstruction projects in southern Lebanon. He was killed on the road linking Damascus with Beirut on Wednesday, it said.

The exact details surrounding Shateri’s death – such as where he was killed and who killed him – were still murky two days later. Fars did not specify whether the slaying took place on the Lebanese or Syrian side of the border, although an Iranian official in Damascus said Shateri was killed inside Syria.

Guards spokesman Gen. Ramazan Sharif was quoted by Fars as saying “mercenaries and supporters” of Israel were responsible. It was unclear whether that allegation meant to implicate the Jewish state itself or rebels fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The Israeli military had no comment.

Syria and its supporters often refer to the rebels as “terrorists” and “mercenaries” backed by foreign powers, including Israel, although Israel is not known to have any links with Syria’s rebels.

None of the dozens of rebel groups fighting in Syria claimed responsibility for the killing, though all are outspoken about their enmity for Iran because of its consistent support for Assad’s regime.

Shateri’s death points to the support that Iran, the region’s Shiite power, provides to both Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Lebanese militant Shiite movement Hezbollah. Tehran lends political and military support to Damascus, a close ally, as well as Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in the region.

The Syrian regime and Hezbollah are both critical to Iran’s Middle East strategy, and Tehran has pledged to continue its support for Assad as he tries to fend off a relentless and bloody rebellion aimed at toppling his family’s 40-year rule.

Related

    Israel will regret ‘latest aggression’ against Syria: Iran
    Israel indicates it was behind airstrike in Syria
    Israeli warplanes fly over Lebanon as new Syrian warning heightens tensions
    ‘It’s not a war Syria could win’: Israel’s air strike may be a taste of things to come, experts predict

Tehran counts on Syria as a bridge to Hezbollah – a dominant political force in Lebanon – and an important foothold for the Guard.

In September, the Guard’s top commander, Jafari, made a rare public acknowledgment that the elite unit has had high-level advisers in Lebanon and Syria for a long time, but was not more specific. Those comments marked the clearest indication of Iran’s direct assistance to its main Arab allies.

Thursday’s funeral for Shateri took place at a mosque in north Tehran, Fars and ISNA said.

Several high-ranking Iranian figures attended the service, including Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, Guard chief Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari and the head of the Guard’s Quds Force, Gen. Ghasem Soleimani. Senior clerics, such as Ayatollah Ali Saeedi, the representative of Iran’s supreme leader to the Guards, also took part.

Footage of the service broadcast on state TV showed footage of mourners carrying aloft a coffin.

It is unclear what Shateri was doing in Syria. The Iranian official in Damascus said Shateri was on a work visit and that three of his assistants were wounded in the attack. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief the media.

Fars, which is close to the Guards, said Shateri was a veteran of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, and served in Afghanistan before moving to Lebanon. He is to be buried Friday in his hometown of Semnan, some 150 kilometers east of Tehran.

Lebanese news reports provided a similar account of the killing but a different name.

Al-Manar TV, which is owned by Hezbollah, identified the dead man as Houssam Khosh Nweis. It said he was the director of the Iranian Council for Reconstruction in Lebanon, and that he had lived in the country since the end of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

The difference in the name could not immediately be reconciled, but Iranian military officials in Lebanon often work under an assumed name because their presence in the country is not publicized by Hezbollah.

Lebanese security officials told The Associated Press there was no indication that the Iranian official was killed on Lebanese soil. The official spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations.

 

[57Chevy]

What a mess !
Both sides guilty of war crimes no matter the scale
and (I think) 'intensity' has nothing to do with it.

Syrian violence rages near Aleppo as UN warns of war crimes The Associated Press, 18 Feb
---
A UN-appointed panel released a 131-page report on the Syrian conflict. It claims regime forces and affiliated militias committed crimes against humanity such as murder, torture and rape. It said anti-government armed groups have committed war crimes, including murder, torture and hostage-taking, but said these did not reach the "intensity and scale" of the government's violations.
---
continues at link...
                                                  ______________________________________

Climate Right for U.S.-Russia Agreement on Syria
Article By Joyce Karam 15 Feb

More of the pieces seem to be falling in place for the U.S. and Russia in trying to find common ground on Syria. The diplomatic pitch led by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is enforced by fears in both capitals about the increased radicalization of the conflict and possible regional spillover if no political settlement is achieved in the near future.

Common Ground

By process of elimination and after rejecting both arming the Syrian opposition and an outside military intervention, the Obama administration has set its sails towards a political settlement in Syria with the help of Russia. Kerry promoted this direction last Wednesday, voicing hope that “there may be an equation where the Russians and the United States could, in fact, find more common ground” on Syria. His approach is supported by U.S. President Barack Obama, and Vice President Joseph Biden who recently met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Munich, as well as National Security advisor Tom Donilon who will be heading to Moscow this month.

Politically, the effort drives its momentum from increasing concerns over the radicalization of the conflict. There is also a realization in Russia and the U.S., that after two years of fighting and 70,000 dead, neither side can win militarily, and the possible consequence might be the collapse of the Syrian state. The U.S. designation of the rebel group Jabhat Nusra on the terrorism list last December spoke volumes to the degree that Washington is concerned about the militarization of the conflict and Al-Qaeda exploiting the unrest. Those fears echo an early Russian worry of rising Islamic militancy in Syria as an alternative to the Assad regime, whom Moscow has been supporting since the beginning of the uprising.

As rebels gain ground especially in Northern Syria taking control of a dam and an airbase this week, however, there is a higher sense of urgency for Russia to seek a political settlement. Syria is Russia’s closest ally in the Middle East with investments estimated at 19.4 billion dollars (The Moscow Times). Syria also hosts Russia’s only naval base outside the former Soviet Union in the city of Tartus.

The fear of a regional spill over as well as the risk of Assad using or transporting Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons is a common U.S.-Russian concern. Lavrov called any use of those weapons a “political suicide”, and the recent reported Israeli raid on a research center near Damascus, exposes the volatility of the situation. King Abdullah of Jordan has also expressed similar concerns, and is expected to visit Moscow in the coming weeks.

Lingering Differences

While Moscow and Washington largely agree on the end terms of the conflict, their differences remain on the roadmap to achieve these goals. The U.S. has insisted on the departure of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and his “clique” overseeing the crackdown, as part of any transition, whereas Russia indicated that “only the Syrian people can decide Assad’s fate.”

Such a move is not surprising from Moscow and might have to do more with the post-Assad military and intelligence structure than with Assad himself. Russia’s arms contracts exceed 4 billion dollars in Syria, and Moscow maintains good relations with the heads of security and intelligence including director of National Security Ali Mamlouk and the head of Syrian air force Jamil Hassan. Both Mamlouk and Hassan qualify in the clique that Washington would like to see departing with Assad, as well as Assad’s brother, Maher, his first cousin and head of General security in Damascus Hafez Makhlouf, and the deputy director of national security Abdul Fatah Qudssiye among others.

Mouaz Khatib Plan?

Against this background emerges the Mouaz Khatib plan. The head of the Syrian National Coalition -the major opposition group-, has come out in favor of direct talks with the Assad regime about the transition period, thus eliminating Assad’s departure as a precondition for such talks. His formula which started as a Facebook post, has attracted wide international support and scored him meetings with Biden, and both Iranian and Russian representatives. Khatib is also expected to visit Moscow end of this month.

The success of the Khatib initiative will ultimately launch negotiations under an international umbrella and increase the prospects of a U.S.-Russian agreement behind a political settlement. Such an outcome might not be enough to end the fighting or force Assad to change his calculations, but it remains a prerequisite to achieve any settlement or produce international consensus.

                                                  Both articles shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

 

[a_majoor]

A depressing analysis. The disintegration of Syria and the expanding Shia/Sunni conflict is the worst case outcome, and it is hard to see how we (both *we* in Canada and *we* in the West in general) won't get sucked into this eventually. Even just throwing up a containment perimeter and hoping the conflict will burn out inside the region does not seem to be a feasible strategy in the age of the Internet and cheap global travel, and we have also seen examples (detailed on other threads) of nominally Canadian and Western citizens converting to the Jihadi cause right here, so trouble can arrive with the "fifth column" as well:

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/02/23/did-obama-make-the-wrong-call-on-syria/

Did Obama Make the Wrong Call on Syria?

A jarring cover fronts next week’s Economist: “Syria: The Death of a Country” is the headline article inside. The whole piece is worth the read, but here’s a juicy bit that backs up what Via Meadia has been arguing for some time now.

    … President Barack Obama has suggested that saving lives alone is not a sufficient ground for military action [in Syria]. Having learnt in Afghanistan and Iraq how hard it is to impose peace, America is fearful of being sucked into the chaos that Mr Assad has created. Mr Obama was elected to win economic battles at home. He believes that a weary America should stay clear of yet another foreign disaster.

    That conclusion, however understandable, is mistaken. As the world’s superpower, America is likely to be sucked into Syria eventually. Even if the president can resist humanitarian arguments, he will find it hard to ignore his country’s interests.

    If the fight drags on, Syria will degenerate into a patchwork of warring fiefs. Almost everything America wants to achieve in the Middle East will become harder. Containing terrorism, ensuring the supply of energy and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction: unlike, say, the 15-year civil war in Lebanon, Syria’s disintegration threatens them all.

    About a fifth of the rebels—and some of the best organised—are jihadists. They pose a threat to moderate Syrians, including Sunnis, and they could use lawless territory as a base for international terror. If they menace Israel across the Golan Heights, Israel will protect itself fiercely, which is sure to inflame Arab opinion. A divided Syria could tear Lebanon apart, because the Assads will stir up their supporters there. Jordan, poor and fragile, will be destabilised by refugees and Islamists. Oil-rich, Shia-majority Iraq can barely hold itself together; as Iraqi Sunnis are drawn into the fray, divisions there will only deepen. Coping with the fallout from Syria, including Mr Assad’s arsenal of chemical weapons, could complicate the aim of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb.

President Obama had an opportunity to intervene in Syria before it spiralled so far out of control. Indeed, that was precisely what a number of his top military and political advisors urged the President to do: arm the moderate rebels and work with allies to boot out Assad.

Now, however, Syria is in a much more complex position. And America’s interests are threatened. The best-equipped and most determined fighters who have risen to become Assad’s most dangerous enemies are not America’s friends; moderate rebels are few and weak. Israel has been drawn unwillingly into the war, protecting itself by preventing Hezbollah from seizing powerful weapons.

VM doesn’t suggest that had Obama acted all would now be well in the Levant. But it’s clear that as the Syrian war drags on, the likelihood grows of it dragging in the U.S. and/or Israel increases in one way or another, despite Obama’s best efforts. As the Economist notes darkly, “Mr Obama wanted to avoid Syria, but Syria will come and get him.”

 

[Edward Campbell]

I respect Mead's opinions but I remain unconvinced that he, or America, (and certainly not I) understands what's going on in that region. Maybe the best course of action is to just let the whole damn region disintegrate back into its more natural "patchwork of warring fiefs" and then see if we, the US led West, can help it to rebuild itself on more culturally acceptable correct appropriate, for the 21st century, lines.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Frankly I would throw my support behind the Kurds, might make a useful balance against Turkey in the long run. The Kurds and Israelis get along which would make for some interesting geopolitics.

 

[a_majoor]

While I am not in the camp that says Geography is history, Robert Kaplan does have some very interesting observations about the region in his latest book: The Revenge of Geography. Essentially, both Turkey and Iran are solid "anchors" of civilization based on their relatively protected status (sheltered behind mountains and seas), while  many of the nations in the rest of the Middle East are much less geographically based. Farther to the south, civilization is based more on caravan routes and the locations of oasis, leading to a collection of tribal areas as the natural form of organization.

I am not totally convinced of this, since history tells us that there were nations and even fairly high population densities in historic times (many Empires flourished during antiquity, and this was the heartland of civilization during the Hellenistic age, an area of importance during the Roman Empire and into the Byzantine period, which tells me that there has been a profound change in political organization and culture in the region since the fall of the Byzantine Empire.

So maybe we need to have the internal collapse that Edward warns us about so that *we* in the US led west can lead a cultural reset.

 

[larry Strong]

Rebels 1 T-72 0


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9u_ne1JmcU

 

[CougarKing]

Hugh Segal attempts to make a case on how intervening in Syria is in our (and other Western nations') national interest...

National Post

Hugh Segal: We must intervene in Syria to protect ourselves
Hugh Segal, National Post


As we near the second anniversary of the beginning of the Syrian government’s brutal assault on its own people, marked by ineffective Western bluster and growing al-Qaeda presence among the disparate anti-government forces, the sense that this crisis could easily evolve from a local humanitarian disaster into a global crisis becomes harder to ignore.

The situation is dire enough already. Tens of thousands of Syrian civilians have already been killed, and the country’s deep sectarian and religious divisions have been immeasurably widened. Hundreds of thousands of refugees have fled into neighbouring countries. Syria’s economic infrastructure has been devastated. Even if all fighting stopped today, it would still take years for Syria to recover.

But the conflict is increasingly taking on international dimensions. Russian, Iranian and Chinese diplomatic and military support have kept the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in power far longer than would otherwise have been possible. The fighting, which has repeatedly spilled over into neighbouring states, has now called into question the security of Syria’s enormous stockpile of chemical weapons (and the delivery systems needed to deploy them). Reports are suggesting that the United States, Israel, Turkey and Jordan are planning a joint command to prepare for the worst-case scenario of these deadly weapons falling into the hands of anti-Assad forces that are also anti-Western. This would be a particular threat to Israel, which is directly to Syria’s south.

It is no surprise that the situation has deteriorated to this point. Indeed, the absence of meaningful Western intervention early on in the conflict made it practically inevitable. Syrian military forces loyal to Assad have not hesitated to use heavy firepower against rebels, and civilians, including artillery, missiles and air strikes. Given the West’s refusal to intervene — even only to impose a no-fly zone that would have neutralized Assad’s air force — the rebels have been forced to take weapons from whatever sources are willing to provide them. This was a golden opportunity for al-Qaeda and other Islamist terror organizations, who did not hesitate to arm militias that supported their political aims.

The result? Syrian groups that sought liberalization and democracy have been annihilated for want of weapons and money, while the militias the West would never want to see take over Syria have become the best-armed, most effective elements within the rebellion.

It is not too late to engage. A coalition composed of Arab and NATO countries could still intervene decisively with a targeted air campaign, reducing Assad’s military capabilities and giving the remnants of pro-democracy forces a fighting chance. Western special forces units could also enter Syria, link up with pro-democracy forces and provide an immediate counter to the superior firepower of the Islamist groups. Turkey, NATO’s only Muslim country, would be the logical leader for this operation (which would also suit U.S. President Barack Obama’s preference for “leading from behind”).

What Bosnia, Afghanistan and Libya have taught us is not that interventions fail, but that imperfect and messy results are still better than the alternative of no engagement at all. The same countries that considered an al-Qaeda-controlled Afghanistan an unacceptable risk to the West cannot be blind to the much greater threat that an Islamist, unstable Syria would pose, not just to Israel, but the entire region.

This is no longer only about our moral responsibility to protect Syria’s helpless civilians. It’s about protecting our allies, and ultimately, ourselves.

National Post

 

[cupper]

It would appear that the Desert Kingdom is exporting it's troublemakers to Syria to keep them from making trouble at home.

With Official Wink And Nod, Young Saudis Join Syria's Rebels

http://www.npr.org/2013/03/13/174156172/with-official-wink-and-nod-young-saudis-join-syrias-rebels

Following a circuitous route from Saudi Arabia up through Turkey or Jordan and then crossing a lawless border, hundreds of young Saudis are secretly making their way into Syria to join groups fighting against the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad, GlobalPost has learned.

With the tacit approval from the House of Saud and financial support from wealthy Saudi elites, the young men take up arms in what Saudi clerics have called a "jihad," or "holy war," against the Assad regime.

Based on a month of reporting in the region and in Washington, more than a dozen sources have confirmed that wealthy Saudis, as well as the government, are arming some Syrian rebel groups. Saudi and Syrian sources confirm that hundreds of Saudis are joining the rebels, but the government denies any sponsoring role.

The Saudis are part of an inflow of Sunni fighters from Libya, Tunisia and Jordan, according to Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

"Most of the foreigners are fighting with al-Nusra or Ahrar al-Sham," both extremist groups, Zelin said.

Sunni extremist fighters are now part of a vicious civil war that has killed an estimated 70,000 people and created more than a million refugees.

The Saudis hope to weaken their regional competitor Iran, a Shiite theocracy that is backing Assad. Saudi officials also hope to divert simmering political unrest at home by encouraging young protesters to instead fight in Syria, according to Saudi government critics.

The government seeks to "diffuse domestic pressure by recruiting young kids to join in another proxy war in the region," said Mohammad Fahad al-Qahtani, a human rights activist and economics professor at the Institute of Diplomatic Studies in Riyadh. They are joining ultraconservative groups who "definitely are against democracy and human rights. The ramifications could be quite serious in the whole region."

In one documented case, a Saudi judge encouraged young anti-government protesters to fight in Syria rather than face punishment at home. Mohammed al-Talq, 22, was arrested and found guilty of participating in a demonstration in the north-central Saudi city of Buraidah.

After giving 19 young men suspended sentences, the judge called the defendants into his private chambers and gave them a long lecture about the need to fight Shiite Muslims in Syria, according to Mohammed's father, Abdurrahman al-Talq.

"You should save all your energy and fight against the real enemy, the Shia, and not fight inside Saudi Arabia," said the father, quoting the judge. "The judge gave them a reason to go to Syria."

Within weeks, 11 of the 19 protesters left to join the rebels. In December 2012, Mohammed al-Talq was killed in Syria. His father filed a formal complaint against the judge late last year, but said he has received no response.

Saudi Arabia shares no border with Syria, so young fighters such as Mohammed must travel through Turkey or Jordan.

Those without criminal records can fly as tourists to Istanbul. Those convicted of crimes or on government watch lists cannot travel without official Ministry of Interior permission. Critics say the government allows such militants to depart with a wink and a nod. Then they sneak across the Jordanian border into southern Syria.

The young militants are sometimes funded by rich Saudis. They acquire black market AK-47s and cross at night along the now porous Syrian borders, according to a local journalist.

Sami Hamwi, the pseudonym of an exiled Syrian journalist who regularly reports from inside the country, has carefully observed the flow of the Saudi fighters to Syria. He told GlobalPost that groups of three to five Saudis often join Jabhat al-Nusra, a prominent rebel faction the United States says has links to al-Qaida.

Many Syrians "like the fact that Saudis come with a lot of money," Hamwi said. "Civil society activists do not like foreign fighters. They think they will cause more trouble."

The term "civil society activists" refers to the largely secular, progressive Syrians who led the initial stage of the Syrian uprising but who have since been eclipsed by the armed militias.

Saudi officials deny that the government encourages youth to fight in Syria. But they also admit they have no control over people who legally leave the country and later join the rebels.

Fighting with the rebels in Syria is illegal, declared Maj. Gen. Mansour al-Turki, a spokesman for the Ministry of Interior. "Anybody who wants to travel outside Saudi Arabia in order to get involved in such conflict will be arrested and prosecuted," he said. "But only if we have the evidence before he leaves the country."

Human rights activist al-Qahtani called the Saudi stand a "don't ask, don't tell policy." Saudi authorities have a strategic goal in Syria, he said.

"Their ultimate policy is to have a regime change similar to what happened in Yemen, where they lose the head of state and substitute it with one more friendly to the Saudis," al-Qahtani said. "But Syria is quite different. It will never happen that way."

Last week, a Saudi court sentenced al-Qahtani to 10 years in prison for sedition and providing false information to foreign media. Human rights groups immediately defended al-Qahtani, saying he is being persecuted for his political views and human rights work.

Meanwhile, evidence mounts that Saudis are pouring into Syria.

Last year, a close friend of Abdulaziz Alghufili bought a Kalashnikov rifle and slipped into Syria to join an extremist militia fighting the Assad regime. "My friend is putting his life at risk," said Alghufili, an electrical engineer not involved in his friend's activities.

So far his friend remains alive. But dozens of Facebook pages and Twitter feeds document the deaths of other Saudis not so fortunate. Almost all joined the al-Nusra Front.

"Most people going there don't think they will come back," Alghufili said. "They will fight to die or win freedom."

Al-Qahtani argues that Saudi support for al-Nusra resembles their aid to the mujahedeen fighting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s.

But he notes that the support for Syrian rebels falls well below the massive effort in Afghanistan, in part because the Obama administration has tamped down Saudi efforts, worried about the growth of extremist groups.

Some U.S. officials and analysts argue that the Saudi government doesn't arm extremist groups at all, having been chastened by the Afghan experience. A State Department official described Saudi Arabia as an opponent of Syrian extremist groups.

"The Saudi government and Arab League share the same concerns about Nusra," he said. "Nobody wants instability."

Randa Slim, a scholar with the Middle East Institute in Washington, says the Saudi royal family doesn't want a repeat of terrorist fighting on its own soil, nor does it want to anger its chief ally, the United States.

"To avoid U.S. ire, they can have individuals fund al-Nusra while the government funds groups vetted by the U.S.," she said. "The Saudis are outsourcing the fight."

The activities of Saudi Arabia — along with Turkey, Qatar, Iran and the United States — have significantly complicated the Syrian civil war, according to Saudi human rights activists.

"The people of Syria want their revolution to be as clean as possible," al-Qahtani said. "Once foreigners are involved, it could lead to the situation of Afghanistan. It could give an excuse for the Syrian regime that it is foreigners who are fighting, which is a wrong policy."

 

[Old Sweat]

This story from Reuters states that chemical weapons have been used in Northern Syria. It is not clear by whom at this time as both sides are blaming their foes. It is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act.

By Dominic Evans

BEIRUT | Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:18am EDT

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syria's government and rebels accused each other of launching a deadly chemical attack near the northern city of Aleppo on Tuesday in what would, if confirmed, be the first use of such weapons in the two-year-old conflict.

Syria's information minister said rebels had fired a rocket carrying chemical agents that killed 16 people and wounded 86. State television said later the death toll had risen to 25.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the conflict using a network of contacts in Syria, put the number of dead at 26, including 16 soldiers.

A Reuters photographer said victims he had visited in Aleppo hospitals were suffering breathing problems and that people had said they could smell chlorine after the attack.

"I saw mostly women and children," said the photographer, who cannot be named for his own safety.

"They said that people were suffocating in the streets and the air smelt strongly of chlorine."

The photographer quoted victims he met at the University of Aleppo hospital and the al-Rajaa hospital as saying: "People were dying in the streets and in their houses."

President Bashar al-Assad, battling a two-year-old uprising against his rule, is widely believed to have a chemical arsenal.

Syrian officials have neither confirmed nor denied this, but have said that if it existed it would be used to defend against foreign aggression, not against Syrians. There have been no previous reports of chemical weapons in the hands of insurgents.

Information Minister Omran al-Zoabi said rebels fired a rocket with chemical weapons at the town of Khan al-Assal, southwest of Aleppo, in what he called a "dangerous escalation".

He said the rocket had been launched from Aleppo's southeastern district of Nairab, part of which is rebel-held.

"SCUD MISSILE"

But a senior rebel commander, Qassim Saadeddine, who is also a spokesman for the Higher Military Council in Aleppo, denied this, blaming Assad's forces for the alleged chemical strike.

"We were hearing reports from early this morning about a regime attack on Khan al-Assal, and we believe they fired a Scud with chemical agents," he told Reuters by telephone from Aleppo.

U.S. President Barack Obama, who has resisted overt military intervention in Syria's two-year-old civil war, has warned Assad that any use of chemical weapons would be a "red line".

Washington has also expressed concern about chemical weapons falling into the hands of militant groups - either hardline Islamist rebels fighting to topple Assad or his regional allies.

Israel has threatened military action if any chemical weapons were diverted to the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Lebanese Shi'ite movement Hezbollah.

Zoabi said Turkey and Qatar, which have supported rebels, bore "legal, moral and political responsibility" for the strike - a charge dismissed by a Turkish official as baseless.

Syrian state TV aired footage of what it said were casualties of the attack arriving at one hospital in Aleppo.

Men, women and children were rushed inside on stretchers as doctors inserted medical drips into their arms and oxygen tubes into their mouths. None had visible wounds to their bodies, but some interviewed said they had trouble breathing.

Three boys lay on the floor beside each other with drips in their arms. One man was taken from an ambulance wearing combat trousers. An unidentified doctor interviewed on the channel said the attack was either "phosphorus or poison".

Saadeddine, a spokesman for the rebel Higher Military Council in Aleppo, said its forces were not behind the attack.
Two weeks ago rebel fighters seized a police academy in Khan al-Assal, about eight km (five miles) southwest of Aleppo, which was being used as an artillery base by Assad's troops.

But the Syrian Observatory said Assad's forces had since retaken at least part of the town.

"PINK SMOKE"

A rebel fighter in Khan al-Assal said he had seen pink smoke rising after a powerful blast shook the area.

Ahmed al-Ahmed, from the Ansar brigade in a rebel-controlled military base near Khan al-Assal, told Reuters that a missile had hit the town at around 8 a.m. (02.00 a.m. EDT).

"We were about two kilometers from the blast. It was incredibly loud and so powerful that everything in the room started falling over. When I finally got up to look at the explosion, I saw smoke with a pinkish-purple color rising up.

"I didn't smell anything, but I did not leave the building I was in," said Ahmed, speaking via Skype.

"The missile, maybe a Scud, hit a regime area, praise God, and I'm sure that it was an accident. My brigade certainly does not have that (chemical) capability and we've been talking to many units in the area, they all deny it."

Ahmed said the explosion was quickly followed by an air strike. A fighter jet circled a police school held by the rebels on the outskirts of Khan al-Assal and bombed the area, he said.

His account could not be independently verified.

In the capital Damascus, activists released video footage on Tuesday showing men and boys lying in a medical center, all of them receiving oxygen, in the aftermath of what they said was a separate chemical attack.

They gave no details or casualty toll for what they said was an attack in Otaiba, east of Damascus. Like other videos and activist reports, it could not be independently verified.

One boy in a light blue sweater lay apparently unconscious on a medical bed with mucus around his mouth and nose. A man was using a suction tube to remove the mucus from inside his nose and the boy twitched.

 

[a_majoor]

Attacking another pillar of the Assad regime. The article also points out multiple flash points that could draw other regional powers into the war despite their desires not to do so. The alternative of intervention would require a massive blow struck at one side or the other, followed by a prolonged period of occupation to stabilize the area along the lines desired by the intervening power (something we haven't really learned to do well in the past):

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/03/21/syria-suicide-bombing-kills-top-pro-assad-sunni-muslim-preacher/

Syria suicide bombing kills top pro-Assad Sunni Muslim preacher

ZEINA KARAM, Associated Press | 13/03/21 11:57 PM ET
More from Associated Press

The Associated PressSheikh Mohammad Said Ramadan al-Buti, an 84-year-old cleric known to all Syrians as a religious scholar, speaks at a press conference. Al-Buti, a top Sunni Muslim preacher and longtime supporter of President Bashar Assad was killed in a suicide bombing in the Eman Mosque, at the Mazraa district, in Damascus, Syria on Thursday.

A suicide bomb ripped through a mosque in the heart of the Syrian capital Thursday, killing a top Sunni Muslim preacher and outspoken supporter of President Bashar Assad in one of the most stunning assassinations of Syria’s 2-year-old civil war. At least 41 others were killed and more than 84 wounded.

The slaying of Sheikh Mohammad Said Ramadan al-Buti removes one of the few remaining pillars of support for Assad among the majority Sunni sect that has risen up against him.

It also marks a new low in the Syrian civil war: While suicide bombings blamed on Islamic extremists fighting with the rebels have become common, Thursday’s attack was the first time a suicide bomber detonated his explosives inside a mosque.

A prolific writer whose sermons were regularly broadcast on TV, the 84-year-old al-Buti was killed while giving a religious lesson to students at the Eman Mosque in the central Mazraa district of Damascus.

The most senior religious figure to be killed in Syria’s civil war, his assassination was a major blow to Syria’s embattled leader, who is fighting mainly Sunni rebels seeking his ouster. Al-Buti has been a vocal supporter of the regime since the early days of Assad’s father and predecessor, the late President Hafez Assad, providing Sunni cover and legitimacy to their rule. Sunnis are the majority sect in Syria while Assad is from the minority Alawite sect – an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

“The blood of Sheik al-Buti will be a fire that ignites all the world,” said Grand Mufti Ahmad Badreddine Hassoun, the country’s top state-appointed Sunni Muslim cleric and an Assad loyalist.

Syrian TV showed footage of wounded people and bodies with severed limbs on the mosque’s blood-stained floor, and later, corpses covered in white body bags lined up in rows. Sirens wailed through the capital as ambulances rushed to the scene of the explosion, which was sealed off by the military.

Among those killed was al-Buti’s grandson, the TV said.

The bombing was among the most serious security breaches in the capital. An attack in July that targeted a high-level government crisis meeting killed four top regime officials, including Assad’s brother-in-law and the defense minister.

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Last month, a car bomb that struck in the same area, which houses the headquarters of Syria’s ruling Baath party, killed at least 53 people and wounded more than 200 others in one of the deadliest Damascus bombings of the civil war.

A small, frail man, al-Buti was well known in the Arab world as a religious scholar and longtime imam at the eighth-century Omayyad Mosque, a Damascus landmark. State TV said he has written 60 books and religious publications.

In recent months, Syrian TV has carried al-Buti’s sermons from mosques in Damascus live every week. He also has a regular religious TV program.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for Thursday’s attack.

Among the opposition, there was a mixture of suspicion and shock that an elderly religious figure such as al-Bouti would be targeted by a suicide bomber inside a mosque.

    I don’t know of a single opposition group that could do something like this

“I don’t know of a single opposition group that could do something like this,” said Walid al-Bunni, a spokesman for the Syrian National Coalition opposition group, speaking on Al-Arabiya TV.

Syrian TV began its evening newscast with an announcement from the religious endowments minister, Mohammad Abdelsattar al-Sayyed, declaring al-Buti’s “martyrdom” as his voice choked up. It then showed parts of al-Buti’s sermon from last Friday, in which he praised the military for battling the “mercenaries sent by America and the West” and said Syria was being subjected to a “universal conspiracy.”

Assad’s regime refers to the rebels fighting against it as “terrorists” and “mercenaries” who are backed by foreign powers trying to destabilize the country. The war, which the U.N. says has killed more than 70,000 people, has become increasingly chaotic as rebels press closer to Assad’s seat of power in Damascus after seizing large swaths of territory in the northern and eastern parts of the country.

On Thursday, rebels captured a village and other territory on the edge of the Golan Heights as fighting closed in on the strategic plateau that Israel captured from Syria in 1967 and later annexed, activists and officials said.

The battles near the town of Quneitra in southwest Syria sent many residents fleeing, including dozens who crossed into neighboring Lebanon. The fighting in the sensitive area began Wednesday near the cease-fire line between Syrian and Israeli troops.

One of the worst-case scenarios for Syria’s civil war is that it could draw in neighboring countries such as Israel or Lebanon.

There have already been clashes with Turkey, Syria’s neighbor to the north. And Israel recently bombed targets inside Syria said to include a weapons convoy headed for Hezbollah in Lebanon, a key ally of the Damascus regime and an arch-foe of the Jewish state.

If the rebels take over the Quneitra region, it will bring radical Islamic militants to a front line with Israeli troops. The rebels are composed of dozens of groups, including the powerful al-Qaida-linked Jabhat al-Nusra, which the Obama administration labels a terrorist organization.

Israel has said its policy is not to get involved in the Syrian civil war, but it has retaliated for sporadic Syrian fire that spilled over into Israeli communities on the Golan Heights.

The Golan front has been mostly quiet since 1974, a year after Syria and Israel fought a war.

The Britain-based activist group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said rebels seized control of parts of villages a few kilometers from the cease-fire line with Israel after fierce fighting with regime forces.

The Local Coordination Committees, another anti-regime activist group, reported heavy fighting in the nearby village of Sahm al-Golan and said rebels were attacking an army post.

The Observatory said seven people, including three children, were killed Wednesday by government shelling of villages in the area.

Rami Abdul-Rahman, who heads the Observatory, said the fighting around the town of Arnabeh intensified Thursday, a day after rebels captured it. He added that the rebels captured two nearby army posts.

In Lebanon, security officials said 150 people, mostly women and children, walked for six hours in rugged mountains covered with snow to reach safety in the Lebanese border town of Chebaa. They said eight wounded Syrians were brought on mules from Beit Jan and taken in ambulances to hospitals in Chebaa.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, said the Syrians fled from the town of Beit Jan, near the Golan Heights.

The Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, a rebel group active in southern Syria, said in a statement on its Facebook page that its fighters stormed an army post between the villages of Sahm al-Golan and Shajara.

Activists on Facebook pages affiliated with rebels in Quneitra announced the start of the operation to “break the siege on Quneitra and Damascus’ western suburbs.”

The fighting moved closer to Israel as President Barack Obama was visiting the Jewish state for the first time since taking office more than four years ago.

 

[a_majoor]

Pro interventionists should take note. Without a viable "pro western" force capable of toppling the Assad regime, any help given will simply bring the day closer that Islamic extremists will carry the field. Since there is (or at least were) a larger number of rebel groups operating in Syria, there may be an argument to simply provide "enough" aid to keep the fight going and cause the States that sponsor Islamic extremism, Russia and Iran to piss away time and resources in an attempt to seize power or prop up the Assad regime (although from every indication there seems to be quite enough of that going around without Western intervention or aid).

From a very cynical POV, this is a classic bit of Mackinderism; various regional powers like Russia, Iran and Turkey are getting embroiled in the Syrian mess and working at cross purposes. Because of this, no power will be able to emerge as a Regional Hegemon in the "Heartland" and thus be able to dominate "The World Island" and therefore the world.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/03/24/western-backed-syria-opposition-coalition-falls-into-disarray-as-leader-quits/

Western-backed Syria opposition coalition falls into disarray as leader quits

Ben Hubbard And Jamal Halaby, Associated Press | 13/03/24 | Last Updated: 13/03/24 1:45 PM ET
More from Associated Press
Former Syrian National Coalition (SNC) President Mouaz al-Khatib speaks during a meeting on the situation in his country, in Ankara, on March 21, 2013.

BEIRUT — Syria’s Western-backed opposition plunged into disarray on Sunday as its president resigned and its military leader refused to recognize a prime minister recently elected to lead an interim rebel government.

The chaos inside the opposition Syrian National Coalition threatened to undermine its bid to unite the forces battling President Bashar Assad and better organize the fight to oust his regime. It also could hamper support from the U.S. and other powers, who have hoped the Coalition would emerge as the most credible body to channel aid to anti-Assad groups inside Syria and undermine the Islamic extremists who dominate the fight on key fronts of the nation’s civil war.

As the opposition’s political leadership stumbled, rebel fighters inside Syria pressed ahead Sunday with their offensive in a restive southern province that borders Jordan. Also, Israel’s military said its forces in the occupied Golan Heights responded to fire across the border by shooting at a target inside Syria.

In his surprise resignation Sunday, Coalition president Mouaz al-Khatib expressed frustration with the both the international community and the opposition body itself. Al-Khatib, a respected preacher who has led the Coalition since its creation late last year, said in a statement posted on his Facebook page that he was making good on a vow to quit if certain undefined “red lines” were crossed.

Related

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“I am keeping my promise today and announcing my resignation from the National Coalition so that I can work with freedom that is not available inside the official institutions,” he said.

He also blamed world powers for providing what he deemed insufficient support for the rebel cause, and complained that many “international and regional parties” have insisted on pushing the opposition toward dialogue with the regime. Most opposition leaders and activists say Assad’s regime has killed too many people to be part of a solution to the conflict.

“All that has happened to the Syrian people — from destruction of infrastructure to the arrest of tens of thousands to the displacement of hundreds of thousands to other tragedies — is not enough for an international decision to allow the Syrian people to defend themselves,” the statement said.

Despite electing a new, U.S.-educated prime minister to head a planned interim government last week, the Coalition has failed to establish itself as the top opposition authority on the ground in Syria, where hundreds of independent rebel brigades are fighting a civil war against Assad’s forces.

The Coalition’s media office distributed al-Khatib’s statement, but did not comment on how his replacement will be chosen.

Al-Khatib’s spokesman, Ali Mohammed Ali, confirmed the authenticity of the statement in a phone call with The Associated Press. He declined to discuss any issues inside the Coalition that could have influenced al-Khatib’s decision.

Burhan Ghalioun, the former head of the Syrian National Council, which preceded the Coalition, said that he and other Coalition members were surprised by the resignation.

Speaking on Al Arabiya TV, Ghalioun also said he assumed the decision was a protest against world powers that have not provided the opposition with the aid it needs, as well as against unnamed countries that have interfered in the Coalition’s operations and other Coalition members who have impeded al-Khatib’s work.

“I lived this, so I know what it means,” Ghalioun said, speaking of his own resignation as head of the SNC last year.

Secretary of State John Kerry said he was sorry to learn of al-Khatib’s resignation, but that it won’t affect U.S. co-operation with the Coalition on aid.

He called such transitions natural, adding that it shows “an opposition that is bigger than one person, and that opposition will continue.”

The second blow Sunday to the opposition leadership was delivered by the head of the Coalition’s own military branch, Gen. Salim Idris, who refused to recognize the body’s new prime minister, saying he did not represent many anti-Assad groups.

Last week, the Coalition elected a little-known U.S.-educated IT expert named Ghassan Hitto to head a rebel interim government.

But in a video statement posted online and distributed by his aides Sunday, Idris said his group would only support a prime minister with broad backing.

“For the purpose of giving power to a prime minister to unite the revolutionary forces and lead the Syrian revolution toward certain victory, we unequivocally declare that the Free Syrian Army in all of its formations and revolutionary powers conditions its support and co-operation on the achievement of a political agreement on the name of a prime minister,” he said.

A Salim aide, Louay Almokdad, said many prominent Syrian figures had opposed Hitto’s election.

Hitto received 35 out of 48 votes cast by the 63 active members of the opposition Syrian National Coalition last week.

Observers and some members of the Coalition complained after the vote that Qatar, which heavily finances the opposition, and the Muslim Brotherhood exercise outsized power inside the Coalition.

The Syrian government has largely ignored the opposition Coalition and says the civil war is an international conspiracy to weaken Syria.

Syria’s conflict has split regional and world powers, with some backing the rebels and others standing by Assad. Russia, China and Iran remain the regime’s strongest supporters.

On Sunday, Kerry told reporters during an unannounced trip to Baghdad that he had made it clear to Iraq, Syria’s eastern neighbour, that it should not allow Iran to use its airspace to shuttle weapons and fighters to Syria.

Kerry said he told Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that the transfer of anything that supports President Bashar Assad and his regime is “problematic.”

Inside Syria, rebels pushed forward in the restive southern province of Daraa, which borders Jordan.

A victory on the frontier with Jordan would be a significant advance for the opposition. It would deprive Assad of control over a supply lifeline also used by refugees fleeing his military onslaught, and could facilitate the entry of arms and equipment to the rebels.

Since summer, 2012, rebels have seized control of large swathes of land near the Turkish and Iraqi borders to the north and east, respectively, and used these areas to organize their forces and build supply lines. But the opposition has struggled so far to carve out a similar area in the south from which they could marshal their forces for a more sustained push north toward Damascus.

Rami Abdul-Rahman of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said heavy clashes raged in three towns in Daraa on Sunday.

A Jordanian border official said he heard heavy artillery and saw smoke rising from areas in the province’s Yarmouk Valley, a route used by Syrian refugees fleeing the fighting to Jordan. The official insisted on anonymity, citing army regulations.

On Saturday, rebels seized several army checkpoints, clearing a 25-kilometre (15-mile) stretch along the Syrian-Jordanian border.

Also Sunday, Israel’s military said its soldiers were on routine patrol in the Golan Heights when they were fired upon and responded. It did not say what weaponry was used or specify if those firing from Syria were rebels or government forces.

For the last week, Syrian rebels have been capturing territory at the foot of the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau that Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and later annexed.

The Syrian Observatory also reported clashes in two districts in the Syrian capital, including near the Damascus international airport. It said the army, backed by warplanes, struck at rebel targets in the northern city of Hama.

The U.N. says more than 70,000 people have been killed since the crisis began in March, 2011.

Halaby reported from Amman, Jordan.