Syria Superthread [merged]

[CougarKing]

Since the Iranians are their main rival for influence over this region, it's not surprising that the Saudis are embroiled in this struggle for Syria as well:

link

article excerpt:

(...)

New evidence emerged of escalating foreign support for the rebels, with a Gulf source telling Reuters that Saudi Arabia had equipped fighters for the first time with shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, their most urgent request. Rebels said Riyadh had also sent them anti-tank missiles.
The weapons deal was disclosed as rebel fighters confront government troops and hundreds of militants from the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia seeking to retake the northern city of Aleppo, where heavy fighting resumed on Monday.

(...)

 

[a_majoor]

Here is an interesting video from CFR on the threat of spillover from Syria into Iraq, Jordan and Libya. It seems that there is evidence that Qatar and Saudi Arabia are funding the Sunnis, perhaps it is now safe to assume that. As in this video, as well as others from various sources including Frontline, the Qataris, it seems from listening to these experts, are the ones who seem to be only funding the jihadis. There seems to be, I thought,  the mention that Saudi Arabia, has been funding various rebel groups with different ideologies. Does anyone possibly have an idea as to why and if so what interest Qatar has in seeming to fund only more radical jihadi groups. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lq1awsHhJog

Saudi Arabia used to fund Islamic radicals to go to Afghanistan in the 1980's as a means of getting rid of them (both physically removing themselves from Saudi Arabia and with the hope that the Russians or local Muhajadin would deal with them on a more permanent basis). I imagine Quatar is thinking along the same lines, but historical examples suggest they will be having regrets in the near future....

I think the Turks may decide to get involved soon, both to clear the radicals from the Turkish border and to put a lid on the Kurds, who have essentially been given a free ride to this point and may soon link up with the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq.

This is one of those contests where the best outcome is that EVERYONE loses.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Something I never thought I would say ... Sarah Palin is right on an important foreign policy issue, here: 'Let Allah sort it out' says Palin on Syria.

 

[AliG]

Arming the rebels might end up costing much more than forecast, as extremists appear to be in ascendance in the country.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/19/us-syria-rebels-islamists-specialreport-idUSBRE95I0BC20130619

Special Report: Syria's Islamists seize control as moderates dither

By Oliver Holmes and Alexander Dziadosz

ALEPPO, Syria | Wed Jun 19, 2013 6:10am EDT

(Reuters) - As the Syrian civil war got under way, a former electrician who calls himself Sheikh Omar built up a brigade of rebel fighters. In two years of struggle against President Bashar al-Assad, they came to number 2,000 men, he said, here in the northern city of Aleppo. Then, virtually overnight, they collapsed.

Omar's group, Ghurabaa al-Sham, wasn't defeated by the government. It was dismantled by a rival band of revolutionaries - hardline Islamists.

The Islamists moved against them at the beginning of May. After three days of sporadic clashes Omar's more moderate fighters, accused by the Islamists of looting, caved in and dispersed, according to local residents. Omar said the end came swiftly.

The Islamists confiscated the brigade's weapons, ammunition and cars, Omar said. "They considered this war loot. Maybe they think we are competitors," he said. "We have no idea about their goals. What we have built in two years disappeared in a single day."

The group was effectively marginalized in the struggle to overthrow Syria's President Bashar al-Assad. Around 100 fighters are all that remain of his force, Omar said.

It's a pattern repeated elsewhere in the country. During a 10-day journey through rebel-held territory in Syria, Reuters journalists found that radical Islamist units are sidelining more moderate groups that do not share the Islamists' goal of establishing a supreme religious leadership in the country.

The moderates, often underfunded, fragmented and chaotic, appear no match for Islamist units, which include fighters from organizations designated "terrorist" by the United States.

The Islamist ascendancy has amplified the sectarian nature of the war between Sunni Muslim rebels and the Shi'ite supporters of Assad. It also presents a barrier to the original democratic aims of the revolt and calls into question whether the United States, which announced practical support for the rebels last week, can ensure supplies of weapons go only to groups friendly to the West.

World powers fear weapons could reach hardline Islamist groups that wish to create an Islamic mini-state within a crescent of rebel-held territory from the Mediterranean in the west to the desert border with Iraq.

That prospect is also alarming for many in Syria, from minority Christians, Alawites and Shi'ites to tolerant Sunni Muslims, who are concerned that this alliance would try to impose Taliban-style rule.

REPROBATES AND OUTLAWS

Syria's war began with peaceful protests against Assad in March 2011 and turned into an armed rebellion a few months later following a deadly crackdown. Most of the rebel groups in Syria were formed locally and have little coordination with others. The country is dotted with bands made up of army defectors, farmers, engineers and even former criminals.

Many pledge allegiance to the notion of a unified Free Syrian Army (FSA). But on the ground there is little evidence to suggest the FSA actually exists as a body at all.

Sheikh Omar told the story of his brigade while sitting in a cramped room at his headquarters, a small one-storey building surrounded by olive tree fields in Aleppo province. Wrapped around his chest he wore a leather bandolier that held two pistols, grips pointing outwards, ready to be drawn by crossing his arms.

He said he was from a poor background in rural Aleppo province. When he and a handful of others had started a rebel group to oppose Assad, fear had made it hard to recruit. The rich and law-abiding were scared. Only outlaws and reprobates would join him at first.

"We were looking for good people. But who was willing to work for me and help me? Those who used to go to bars, to fight with people and steal. Those are the people who allied with me and fought against the regime." As he spoke some of his remaining fighters tried to interject; he silenced them, saying he wanted to be honest.

LOOTING

Ghurabaa al-Sham started with modest aims, Omar said. They would enter small police stations and negotiate a handover of weapons in return for free passage out of the area for the police.

But their numbers grew to 2,000 men, he said, and they fought battles to take border posts with Turkey and were one of the first rebel brigades to move into Aleppo, Syria's most populous city with 2.5 million inhabitants.

More than half of the city fell to the rebels, but Assad's army pushed back, fighting street by street for months. A stalemate ensued. Very little progress has been made from either side for almost a year.

Where the government forces did cede ground, Aleppo's residents did not welcome the rebels with open arms. Most fighters were poor rural people from the countryside and the residents of Aleppo say they stole. Omar acknowledged this happened.

"Our members in Aleppo were stealing openly. Others stole everything and were taking Syria's goods to sell outside the country. I was against any bad action committed by Ghurabaa al-Sham. However, things happened and opinion turned against us," he said as his men squirmed in their seats, uncomfortable with his words.

Ghurabaa al-Sham was not the only group to take the law into its own hands. In Salqin, a town in Idlib province bordering Turkey, fighters from a rebel brigade called the Falcons of Salqin have set up checkpoints at the entrances to the town.

Abu Naim Jamjoom, deputy commander of the brigade, said the rebels take a cut of any produce - food, fuel or other merchandise - that enters Salqin. The goods are distributed to the town's residents, he said, but some rebel groups steal this "tax" for themselves.

Part of the problem is that the rebel groups are poorly equipped and badly coordinated. Jamjoom said he had 45 men with guns and two homemade mortar launchers but was desperately low on ammunition. "Everything we have has been looted from the regime," he said, echoing the response of most rebel commanders when asked if they have received any outside support.

Jamjoom, who wore a blue camouflaged outfit and kept a grenade in his left pocket, said he had registered his group with the Supreme Military Council, a body set up by the U.S.-backed Syrian National Coalition of opposition groups to help coordinate rebel units.

"We haven't received any help from the military council," Jamjoom said, drinking sweet tea on the balcony of his headquarters, the house of a pro-Assad dignitary who had fled the area. "We have to depend on ourselves. I am my own mother, you could say."

He tugged at his uniform. "I bought this myself, with my money," he said. He also said his group buys weapons from other brigades, "from those who have extra." Weapons trading by rebel groups raises the risk that arms supplied by Western powers may fall into the hands of Islamist groups.

Western officials say military aid will be channeled through the Supreme Military Council. A Western security source told Reuters the council is trying to gain credibility, but as yet it has little or no authority.

Meanwhile, Jamjoom and his men were largely staying around Salqin, low on ammunition and low on energy. Inside the mansion they have commandeered, rebels lazed about on the gaudy fake-gold furniture in a room full of books, including religious texts and a copy of "The Oxford Companion to English Literature."

ISLAMIST ARBITERS

The Islamists are more energetic and better organized. The main two hardline groups to emerge in Syria are Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra, an al Qaeda offshoot that has claimed responsibility for dozens of suicide bombings, including several in Damascus in which civilians were killed.

But Islamist fighters, dressed in black cotton with long Sunni-style beards, have developed a reputation for being principled. Dozens of residents living in areas of rebel-held territory across northern Syria told Reuters the same thing, whether they agreed with the politics of Jabhat al-Nusra or not: the Islamists do not steal.

Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who researches Islamic militants, said the main reason groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham have become popular is because of the social provisions they supply. "They are fair arbiters and not corrupt."

In Aleppo four Islamist brigades, including Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham, have taken over the role of government and are providing civilians with day-to-day necessities. They have also created a court based on Islamic religious laws, or sharia.

The Aleppans call it "the Authority" and it governs anything from crimes of murder and rape to business disputes and distributing bread and water around the city. The power of such courts is growing, Authority members and rebels said, and is enforced by a body called the "Revolutionary Military Police."

At the police's headquarters, a five-storey building surrounded with sandbags, a large placard outside read: "Syrian Islamic Liberation Front." It referred to a union of several Islamist brigades, forged in October 2012, which seeks to bring together disparate fighting groups. Its Islamist emphasis has already alienated some other fighters.

The head of the Aleppo branch of the Revolutionary Military Police, Abu Ahmed Rahman, comes from Liwa al-Tawhid, the largest rebel force in Aleppo. Ostensibly al-Tawhid has pledged its support for the U.S.-recognized Syrian National Coalition, but its role in the Authority alongside Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra shows an alliance with more radical groups.

As Rahman sat at a large desk on the ground floor, people rushed in and out, asking him to stamp and sign documents. He said that the worst problem the police had encountered so far was with Ghurabaa al-Sham, who had clashed with a sub-division of Liwa al-Tahwid for control of Aleppo's industrial city, a complex of factories and office blocks sprawling over 4,000 hectares on the north-east outskirts of the city.

"Ghurabaa al-Sham fighters were annoying people, looting," he said. The industrial area offered plenty of plunder. Residents of Aleppo said rebels found machinery and equipment in the factories that could be sold in Turkey.

Rahman said the Authority summoned Ghurabaa al-Sham to a hearing but they didn't show up. "Then all the brigades went to get them. Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and other rebel units," he said.

Abu Baraa, an employee at the Authority, said: "We gathered a lot of people with guns and everything. We went to the industrial city and we arrested everyone who was there. Then we did the interrogation. Those who did not steal were set free, and the others were put in prison.

"Before this Sharia Authority, every brigade did whatever it wanted. Now they have to ask for everything. We are in charge now, God willing. We are the supervisors. If you do something wrong, you will be punished."

A POWER STRUGGLE

Members of Ghurabaa al-Sham gave a different version of events and have a different world view. "Why is the Sharia Authority allowed to control us? We didn't elect them," said Abdul-Fatah al-Sakhouri, who works in the media center for Ghurabaa al-Sham, an old taxi station in Aleppo where he and some other fighters upload videos of battles against the Syrian army onto YouTube.

Al-Sakhouri, previously a mathematics teacher, said the head of the Ghurabaa al-Sham unit in the industrial city had gone to the Authority to sort out the dispute. "Commander Hassan Jazera was there for three hours and then left. It shows that they didn't arrest him and there were no real charges against us," he said.

The dispute, Ghurabaa al-Sham fighters said, was really about power. They said their brigade, made up of fighters ranging from Islamists to secularists but all in favor of a civilian state, was not part of the Islamist alliance formed between Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and Liwa al-Tawhid.

Another member of Ghurbaa al-Sham, who called himself Omar, said the Islamist alliance wanted to weaken his group because it disagrees with Islamist ideology and seeks democracy.

Illustrating his fear of Islamist cultural restrictions, Omar said he was a fan of the American heavy metal band Metallica and pulled out a mobile phone to show a Metallica music video. The 24-year-old said Syrian businessmen once promised millions of dollars to bring Metallica to Aleppo but, in the end, the government rejected the plan.

"Jabhat al-Nusra wouldn't want this either," he said.

So far the Islamist groups have been the ones to attract outside support, mostly from private Sunni Muslim backers in Saudi Arabia, according to fighters in Syria.

With the help of battle-hardened Sunni Iraqis, these groups have been able to gain recruits. "They had military capabilities. They are actually organized and have command and control," said Zelin of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

As moderate rebel groups dithered, so did their backers outside the country. Bickering among the political opposition, a collection of political exiles who have spent many years outside Syria, also presented a problem for the United States about whether there would be a coherent transition to a new government if Assad fell.

But most importantly, Western powers fear that if weapons are delivered to Syrian rebels, there would be few guarantees they would not end up with radical Islamist groups, such as Jabhat al-Nusra, who might one day use them against Western interests.

The moderates are losing ground. In many parts of rebel-held Aleppo, the red, black and green revolutionary flag which represents more moderate elements has been replaced with the black Islamic flag. Small shops selling black headbands, conservative clothing and black balaclavas have popped up around the city and their business is booming.

Reuters met several Islamist fighters who had left more moderate rebel brigades for hardline groups. One member of Ahrar al-Sham, who would only speak on condition of anonymity, said: "I used to be with the Free Syrian Army but they were always thinking about what they wanted to do in future. I wanted to fight oppression now."

(Additional reporting by Mark Hosenball in Washington; Editing By Richard Woods and Simon Robinson

 

[MilEME09]

If they armed the rebels before Al-Nursra and other extremist groups gained most of the power, maybe we could have kept them in check, but those who are fighting Assad see the extremists as the only ones who can take on assad and win

 

[PanaEng]

I think the Turks may decide to get involved soon, both to clear the radicals from the Turkish border and to put a lid on the Kurds, who have essentially been given a free ride to this point and may soon link up with the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq.

Wonder what secondary arrangements the Kurd leader in Turkey negotiated for his release - other than stopping Kurd aggression in Turkey?

 

[tamouh]

I agree with most of your premises, but the thing that undermines it is that many, if not most of the extremists, are not Syrians. Second, while chaos can breed extremism - so can its opposite, authority. Syria was anything but chaotic prior to the onset of this war. The fact is that modern Islamic extremism is the product of history, going back far beyond the lifetime of Assad (but perhaps not his father). Whether there is a civil war today, or a peaceful handover of power in 2011 doesn't change that extremism would persist - it would merely be less obvious.

As for his hardheaded approach, I will admit that what he played a part in creating the current civil war. As the saying goes, however, it takes two to tango. If I may be hypothetical the rebels were probably better off as nonviolent protesters. However you are being very hypothetical if you believe that there is a better alternative to Assad. I certainly hope that is so, but I seriously doubt it. Given that Syria is a proxy war between the Sunni and Shia powers, each as fundamentalist as their populations will allow (or suffer), I fear a new Syrian regime would go much the same way as the new Iraqi one. However, the war is changing the current regime from within. There is no foretelling what political form Syria may take after an Assad victory. All that is certain is that the status quo is beyond retrieval.

I am going to focus on few matters pertaining to the US security. I don't think Syria in itself has any interest for Canada. This is big nations game, and I feel Canada is not in this game.

Lets take two scenarios since the beginning of the uprising in Syria (both scenarios will disregard the large casualties and human sufferings):

Scenario 1: The uprising started and brutally quelled just like happened in the 1980s. No outside force intervention. Bashar regime feels more empowered, ascertain this was an outside monopoly (always blame it on America and Israel), Iran feels confident its ally is stable and capable of continuing. Expect decades of brutal authoritarian-sectarian purging just like happened in the 1980s. Hezbollah will be strengthened, Iran strengthened and countries like Turkey, Jordan, Saudi will feel threatened. This would be big for Bashar regime, it had survived when other regimes did not.  What benefit is this for the US? This would basically keep the status quo. It may not necessarily be bad for the US, but could be an inconvenience depending on US long term strategy for the region.

Scenario 2: The current one playing in front of our eyes now. While the outcome has not been determined yet. I do feel that this scenario is working in favor of US Foreign Policy. On one hand, the Bashar regime is weakened. On the other, the war is bleeding Iranian treasury. Last, Hezbollah is being hit hard without a single bullet fired by Israel. All the US has to do now is balance the battle as it sees fit until both sides are completely weakened.

I'm going to put aside all this extremist talk because you won't find more Salafis than the Saudis and they are the US biggest allies. I'm against the notion that Saudi gets rid of its extremists by sending them to Afghan, Bosnia, Chechnya or Syria. You do need to understand how Saudi Arabia operate to know how these things work out. But to sum it up, the Afghan Mujaheddin were supported by Saudi Arabia through Pakistan in coordination with the US to exhaust the Soviets in Afghanistan. I don't believe the US had in plan for the Taliban to take over Afghanistan (rather, that was a Pakistani venture mainly to secure its Sunni border. To this day, Pakistan continues to support the Taliban even as the US forces fight against them). The latest initiative to hold peace talks with Taliban directly did not come out of thin air. This basically means Pakistan will install its puppet regime.

What is the role of Saudi Arabia or Qatar in all of this? They are the financiers, nothing more or less. I don't claim to know why Qatar wants to play big games in the region, but someone once pointed out that little countries like to feel important on the international stage. For a wealthy country like Qatar, this could be the case.

 

[Robert0288]

Wealthy countries can also toss around money to people sharing their beliefs.  Keeps your own people's conscience happy without having to expose yourself to too much risk.

As for US involvement, I would have no issue with them launching a couple cruise missiles in targeting chemical weapon stockpiles if the situation arises. 

 

[Zartan]

Tiamo,

Thank you for your reply. You'll be relieved to know that I agree with your points, especially that Canada has no part in this event. I must only add that I don't believe that even were Assad to win this war, would his position in any way be strengthened. His victory can only be Pyrrhic. I can only imagine that his supporters are behind him less for charismatic reasons and more for reasons of survival. Should his side win he will remain a liability to the stability of Syria, and based upon what I've read, the fighters on the government side seem to know that (I will admit that I am limited to Robert Fisk for much of this).

I also just want to state that it is illogical to assume that a faction at war always returns strengthened through combat experience. If that were true, Italy would have been the biggest (real) threat in Europe in 1939. In reality years of war had critically degraded the Italian military and politics to an irreparable state. I feel that Hezbollah will find itself in a similar position - win or lose. For, it is dependent on outside arms and to some extent, training. Hezbollah has lost more men in Syria than it has lost to the Israelis in my lifetime (I would guess), and losses of ammunition, weapons and experience will take a very long time to replace, especially given that Iran would be more likely to support Syria with its diminishing capital than a relatively small, albeit prominent Lebanese faction.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Prime Minister Harper has encouraged caution in dealing with the anti-Assad forces, suggesting that they are not quite that which we might expect for which we might hope. This video CAUTION - graphic illustrates why his advice is sound.

The text that accompanies the video says that one of the victims is "Syrian priest François Murad," he "was killed in Gassanieh, in northern Syria, in the convent of the Custody of the Holy Land where he had taken refuge. This is confirmed by a statement of the Custos of the Holy Land sent to Fides Agency. The circumstances of the death are not fully understood. According to local sources, the monastery where Fr. Murad was staying was attacked by militants linked to the jihadi group Jabhat al-Nusra."

I believe - maybe just sincerely hope - that the North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian Islamic region is due for a series of wars and insurrections that will put the Thirty Years War to shame in terms of both savagery and death toll and in (eventual) positive outcome. The problem, I reiterate, in not (in my opinion) Islam, itself; it is the primitive, even retarded North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian culture which still thinks that public executions like this, so called "honour killings" and female genital mutilation are cause to shout "God is great!" That culture is unacceptable in the 21st century West; either the Muslims change it or we change them ... probably into ash. In the interim we should isolate them - sell them arms, by all means, so long as they can pay cash on the barrel head, but cut off all immigration, student visas, tourism, trade and so on for a generation or two.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Prime Minister Harper has encouraged caution in dealing with the anti-Assad forces, suggesting that they are not quite that which we might expect for which we might hope. This video CAUTION - graphic illustrates why his advice is sound.

The text that accompanies the video says that one of the victims is "Syrian priest François Murad," he "was killed in Gassanieh, in northern Syria, in the convent of the Custody of the Holy Land where he had taken refuge. This is confirmed by a statement of the Custos of the Holy Land sent to Fides Agency. The circumstances of the death are not fully understood. According to local sources, the monastery where Fr. Murad was staying was attacked by militants linked to the jihadi group Jabhat al-Nusra."

I believe - maybe just sincerely hope - that the North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian Islamic region is due for a series of wars and insurrections that will put the Thirty Years War to shame in terms of both savagery and death toll and in (eventual) positive outcome. The problem, I reiterate, in not (in my opinion) Islam, itself; it is the primitive, even retarded North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian culture which still thinks that public executions like this, so called "honour killings" and female genital mutilation are cause to shout "God is great!" That culture is unacceptable in the 21st century West; either the Muslims change it or we change them ... probably into ash. In the interim we should isolate them - sell them arms, by all means, so long as they can pay cash on the barrel head, but cut off all immigration, student visas, tourism, trade and so on for a generation or two.

A JDAM dropped on that group would do the world wonders

I completely agree with you though, we should not be supporting these "liberation" movements in this country or in the wider Muslim world.  I would much rather throw my money at a group like the Assad's because at least they can be controlled. 

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I believe - maybe just sincerely hope - that the North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian Islamic region is due for a series of wars and insurrections that will put the Thirty Years War to shame in terms of both savagery and death toll and in (eventual) positive outcome. The problem, I reiterate, in not (in my opinion) Islam, itself; it is the primitive, even retarded North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian culture which still thinks that public executions like this, so called "honour killings" and female genital mutilation are cause to shout "God is great!" That culture is unacceptable in the 21st century West; either the Muslims change it or we change them ... probably into ash. In the interim we should isolate them - sell them arms, by all means, so long as they can pay cash on the barrel head, but cut off all immigration, student visas, tourism, trade and so on for a generation or two.

I agree. The fighting/rioting taking place in North Africa and Syria may be the first shots in a Muslim version of our Protestant Reformation that tore Europe apart in the 16-17th centuries. Here the conflict is between the more modernized/secular Muslims and the Islamic fundamentalists that are trying to install a medieval theocracy.  And like Mr. Campbell said, its going to be long and bloody.

 

[CougarKing]

I believe - maybe just sincerely hope - that the North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian Islamic region is due for a series of wars and insurrections that will put the Thirty Years War to shame in terms of both savagery and death toll and in (eventual) positive outcome. The problem, I reiterate, in not (in my opinion) Islam, itself; it is the primitive, even retarded North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian culture which still thinks that public executions like this, so called "honour killings" and female genital mutilation are cause to shout "God is great!" That culture is unacceptable in the 21st century West; either the Muslims change it or we change them ... probably into ash. In the interim we should isolate them - sell them arms, by all means, so long as they can pay cash on the barrel head, but cut off all immigration, student visas, tourism, trade and so on for a generation or two.

And below is an example of the barbarism of that culture:

Catholic priest beheaded in Syria monastery attack
2 July 2013 Last updated at 01:27 GMT

BBC link

Quote:

A Syrian Catholic priest has been beheaded by rebels at a monastery in the northern Syria, the Vatican says.

Father Francois Murad, 49, was beheaded on 23 June when militants attacked the convent where he was staying.

The Vatican news agency said the circumstances of the killing were not fully clear.

But local sources said the attackers were linked to the jihadist group known as al-Nusra Front.

 

[a_majoor]

I agree. The fighting/rioting taking place in North Africa and Syria may be the first shots in a Muslim version of our Protestant Reformation that tore Europe apart in the 16-17th centuries. Here the conflict is between the more modernized/secular Muslims and the Islamic fundamentalists that are trying to install a medieval theocracy.  And like Mr. Campbell said, its going to be long and bloody.

I'd say it is more like the counter-reformation. The secular "opposition" is very small in influence and overall numbers; in Egypt it looks like the battle might devolve into a three way contrest between the Army, the Muslim Brotherhoods and the Salafis (who are even more radical theocratically than the Brotherhoods). For Syria the secularists have more or less been marginalized, you may eventually have to choose between a fascist "Ba'athist" state or your pick of Shiite or Sunni medieval theocracies (worst choice; the Syrian State disintegrates into ethnic and religious cantons in the manner of Bosnia; now you can have all three and a Kurdish rump state as well).

I agree that this will make the 30 years war look like a pleasant outing.

 

[Edward Campbell]

...

I agree that this will make the 30 years war look like a pleasant outing.

And it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch, right?  :nod:

 

[Jed]

Prime Minister Harper has encouraged caution in dealing with the anti-Assad forces, suggesting that they are not quite that which we might expect for which we might hope. This video CAUTION - graphic illustrates why his advice is sound.

The text that accompanies the video says that one of the victims is "Syrian priest François Murad," he "was killed in Gassanieh, in northern Syria, in the convent of the Custody of the Holy Land where he had taken refuge. This is confirmed by a statement of the Custos of the Holy Land sent to Fides Agency. The circumstances of the death are not fully understood. According to local sources, the monastery where Fr. Murad was staying was attacked by militants linked to the jihadi group Jabhat al-Nusra."

I believe - maybe just sincerely hope - that the North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian Islamic region is due for a series of wars and insurrections that will put the Thirty Years War to shame in terms of both savagery and death toll and in (eventual) positive outcome. The problem, I reiterate, in not (in my opinion) Islam, itself; it is the primitive, even retarded North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian culture which still thinks that public executions like this, so called "honour killings" and female genital mutilation are cause to shout "God is great!" That culture is unacceptable in the 21st century West; either the Muslims change it or we change them ... probably into ash. In the interim we should isolate them - sell them arms, by all means, so long as they can pay cash on the barrel head, but cut off all immigration, student visas, tourism, trade and so on for a generation or two.

We must take this approach in the West if we are to stop the insidious death of a thousand cuts that is occurring in our free world countries due to Muslim intolerance of all other faiths and non believers.

 

[jollyjacktar]

I believe - maybe just sincerely hope - that the North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian Islamic region is due for a series of wars and insurrections that will put the Thirty Years War to shame in terms of both savagery and death toll and in (eventual) positive outcome. The problem, I reiterate, in not (in my opinion) Islam, itself; it is the primitive, even retarded North African/Arab/Persian/West Asian culture which still thinks that public executions like this, so called "honour killings" and female genital mutilation are cause to shout "God is great!" That culture is unacceptable in the 21st century West; either the Muslims change it or we change them ... probably into ash. In the interim we should isolate them - sell them arms, by all means, so long as they can pay cash on the barrel head, but cut off all immigration, student visas, tourism, trade and so on for a generation or two.

You  We might both all be getting your wishes.  Interesting opinion editorial from the other day.  Thought of you ER as I read it.

If it does happen, I do hope that it goes down to the deepest darkest road of no return for all those who would flock to it's call.  They're a pack of wild animals and I hope they tear each other to pieces.

Shared under the provisions of the copyright act.  Full article and chart at story link below.

Is Syrian-related violence the beginning of the Muslim world's Thirty Years' War?
Posted By Thomas E. Ricks  Thursday, June 27, 2013 - 11:03 AM  Share
By John T. Kuehn

Best Defense guest columnist

The so-called "Arab Spring" has now turned into a larger Mideast autumn that is reflecting warfare and conflict approaching the bloody religious wars that Europe went through during the 16th and 17th centuries.

We are seeing the beginning of a wider regional war along the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus axis and beyond -- not an "axis of evil," but rather an axis of instability and conflict. It could go further, linking to similar areas of violence to the east (in Afghanistan-Pakistan) or to the west to the mess in Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa. Instead of democracy breaking out everywhere, it seems that war is breaking out everywhere. Syria is the nexus for the current dangerous inflection point. It is in many ways similar to the Netherlands of the 16th century, that area of rebellion against the Hapsburgs/Catholic Church that rocked the world for over 80 years as the Reformation swirled about.

As we all know, voices are clamoring in Washington to "make it go away." Or rather to make the critics of the Obama administration quiet down. Most recently, Secretary of State John Kerry argued for airstrikes on airfields reputedly being used by the Assad regime for combat missions, including chemical weapons attacks. Kerry's proposal was vetoed during a recent principals meeting at the White House by none other than General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. So much for war-mongering generals. Additionally, in recent months, Hezbollah has entered the conflict with thousands of fighters to help retake the city of Qusayr from the Syrian insurgents. Today, Qusayr is a ghost town with fewer than 500 inhabitants. Recall, too, that Hezbollah are the same bubbas that brought us the Marine Barracks attack in 1983. Reports out today indicate that the Lebanese Army has had several firefights with local Sunnis who support the Syrian rebels. Just great, a re-ignition of the Lebanese civil war might be in the offing.

Moving to the east we find the "sectarian violence" in Iraq at levels not seen since the American surge in 2007. Could yet another civil war be igniting there -- this time absent the armed umpiring of the United States and its allies? It may already have. The link here is precisely Iran's support for the Assad regime and its client quasi-state farther south, Hezbollah. From a purely military standpoint, Tehran's line of communication with its political allies and co-religionists farther west in Syria and Lebanon runs directly through Iraq. This "rat line" is used by the Quds Force and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and has been in place in various forms ever since the U.S. invasion in 2003. See David Crist's recent book The Twilight War if you doubt me on this issue. The sectarian violence in Iraq is directly related to the Syrian violence -- make no mistake. One way for the insurgents' co-religionist Sunni allies in Iraq to influence events in Syria is to destabilize the pro-Iranian government in Baghdad. In this way they can interrupt the flow of Iranian support to both Hezbollah and Assad through Iraq.

Afghanistan? There is no need for further discussion; war continues there and is likely to continue -- although the political ties of Tehran to Kabul may strengthen given President Karzai's recent strong denunciation of U.S. efforts to include the Taliban in peace talks. Too, Iran's oil goes to India, which is also a supporter of the Kabul regime, all of which makes Pakistan the odd man out and more likely to support Sunni co-religionists and political allies represented now by insurgents in both Syria and Iraq.

What about further west? Let's see, Egypt has severed diplomatic ties with Syria, never a good sign. Further south, in the always pleasant Horn of Africa, we find U.N. personnel have been blown up in Mogadishu by al Shabab. Although clear linkages to the conflict to the northeast do not exist, the forces behind this latest attack on the international order are of a religious bent that favors the insurgent-Sunni factions. Too, this sort of violent outburst does nothing to improve the stability of this entire region. Farther west we find the arc of instability running along the Maghreb (Tunisia and Algeria) as well as splitting south through Libya to troubling events in Mali and Nigeria; the latter country is itself in a low state of civil war divided along ethno-religious lines. Finally, to the north of it all is the NATO ally and Sunni co-religionist government of Turkey, warily eying the troublemaking regime of Vlad Putin, which supports Syria. But Turkey is now distracted by widespread, Westernized demonstrations against its own attempts to impose religious conservatism. None of this can be comforting for the major powers, which all have a stake in the Middle East and Africa. Get the picture? Heated outbursts to quiet political audiences are probably -- as Dempsey pointed out to Secretary Kerry -- ill-advised.

This regional conflict is not just about religion, nor is it all about longstanding political relationships and ethnic tensions -- it is all of the above. I am compelled to ask, what should the United States do that it is not already doing? This presupposes I know the range of action the U.S. government is already engaged in, but I would suggest these steps -- whatever they are -- are probably sufficient for now. Those who predicted the Arab Spring turning into a messy regional war were right. It has arrived.

This is the time for calm heads to prevail and avoid a much larger general war, but first we must recognize the real potential for this mess to turn into something along the lines of Europe's own wars of religion, something like the grim and destructive Thirty Years' War that began with a "Prague Spring" in 1618.

John T. Kuehn has taught military history at the Command and General Staff College since 2003 and retired from the Navy as a commander in 2004. He earned his Ph.D. in history from Kansas State University in 2007. He graduated with distinction from Naval Postgraduate School in 1988. He won the Society of Military History Moncado Prize in 2010 and is the author of Agents of Innovation (2008), Eyewitness Pacific Theater (with D.M. Giangreco, 2008), and numerous articles and editorials.

http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/06/27/is_syrian_related_violence_the_beginning_of_the_muslim_worlds_thirty_years_war

 

[OldSolduer]

I've just seen the video. I am disgusted, but in no way surprised that these.....whatever they are....would do something like this and air it publicly .

I don't know where this priest was from, but if I were the PM or the leader of that nation, I'd be having a quiet meeting with my Defence Minister, CDS or equivalent and my Spec Ops people.

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Immigration Minister Jason Kenney says that "Canada will accept as many as 1,300 Syrian refugees by the end of 2014."

This is, no doubt, well intentioned, but I hope we all remember what was used to pave the road to hell.

Refugees are, by defition, people who flee their homes in real fear of life or limb. They need and deserve protection. But refugees, also by definition, want to return home. They should, therefore, be protected and cared for as close as possible to the homes from which they fled.

Canada is a rich, generous country; we should promise to take care of more than 1,300 Syrian refugees but we should do so in camps in the Middle East: in Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan. We should offer to build and operate first rate, safe, secure camps there - with good schools, adequate medical facilities and, to the extent possible, real jobs for the refugees, themselves.

But we should not bring them to Canada. They are refugees, not immigrants; if they applied as potential immigrants it is very likely that the vast majority of the 1,300 would not be accepted because they are unlikely to adapt well to life in Canada as immigrants; they are equally unlikely to adapt well to life in Canada as refugees.

 

[OldSolduer]

:goodpost:

Well said Mr. Campbell