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Syria Superthread [merged]

S.M.A. said:
Not surprising considering the Saudis and other Gulf states are most probably rooting for and bankrolling the arms and supplies for the more radical factions among Syria's Sunni rebels...

I included the original text as well

Kerry: Arab countries offered to pay for invasion
Aaron Blake

Secretary of State John Kerry said at Wednesday’s hearing that Arab counties have offered to pay for the entirety of unseating President Bashar al-Assad if the United States took the lead militarily.

“With respect to Arab countries offering to bear costs and to assess, the answer is profoundly yes,” Kerry said. “They have. That offer is on the table.”

Asked by Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) about how much those countries would contribute, Kerry said they have offered to pay for all of a full invasion.

“In fact, some of them have said that if the United States is prepared to go do the whole thing the way we’ve done it previously in other places, they’ll carry that cost,” Kerry said. “That’s how dedicated they are at this
.

...

Washington Post link


Comments -  A satirical comment first "if the United States is prepared to go do the whole thing the way we’ve done it previously in other places, they’ll carry that cost"

                  Hallulejah!!!! Brothers and Sisters - The day of salvation is at hand!!!! If true all the US has to do is pushing the Enron Accountant  out of jail - Ask Booz Allen Hamilton et all for a full accounting  Get the fornamed parties to submit a hefty retainer, a couple of trillion US Dollars would be a good start. The 14th century condotierri Sir John Blackwood wrote the manual on this sort of stuff.  Presto, one bad guy eliminated, and western economies get a chance to get back on the right track.

Back in the real world this would still be a mess.  I've seen US Navy commercials advocating it as "A Global Force for good".  Fair enough.

Getting back to the comment, I suspect that the US is really going to regret it,  just saying.

Finally he speaks only of the $$$$ costs, what of all the other costs???? Human, Moral, etc ....

A bad deal all around, possibly an unfortunate precedent

I think even Sir John might have walked away from this deal.

 
The bungling of the Administration is causing waves even in the US Military:

http://freebeacon.com/misfire/

Joint Chiefs Chairman Criticizes Leak of Syria Military Plans, Delay in Syria Strikes as Forces Moved
     
BY: Bill Gertz  
September 3, 2013 6:57 pm

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the president’s top military adviser, told the Senate on Tuesday that U.S. plans for attacks on Syria were made more difficult by leaks to the press and the president’s delay in ordering the strikes.

Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman, said in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that despite those setbacks he is confident military strikes will be effective in degrading the Syrian military’s chemical warfare capabilities.

Dempsey appeared before Congress with Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel in the first day of what is expected to be a two-week debate on whether to approve President Obama’s announced plans to take military action along

Unlike Kerry and Hagel, Dempsey had no prepared statement and provided short answers to most questions.

Asked by Sen. Ben Cardin (D., Md.) if public discussion of plans by the United States to use military force had made it more difficult to conduct the strikes, Dempsey said: “Yes, senator, it has.”

Dempsey said within the past 10 days “there was a significant leak of military planning that caused the regime to react.”

“So time works both ways,” he said, adding that “we have some pretty significant intelligence capabilities, and we continue to refine our targets.”

Reports from the Middle East said the Syrian government has begun moving forces and hiding potential targets of a missile strike in anticipation of U.S. military action.

Obama said Saturday that he was told by his military advisers that any attack could be delayed without undermining the mission and thus he decided to seek congressional approval before an attack.

Later in the hearing, Dempsey said “for interest of clarity here, what I actually said to the president is the following: The military resources we have in place can remain in place, and when you ask us to strike, we will make those strikes effective.”

“In other sessions, in the principals committee, not with the president present, we talked about some targets becoming more accessible than they were before,” he said, an apparent reference to intelligence indicating the Syrians had moved forces to locations where they can be more easily attacked.

However, he said “there is evidence, of course, that the regime is reacting not only to the delay, but also they were reacting before that to the very unfortunate leak of military planning.”

“So this is a very dynamic situation.”

Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.), also criticized the administration for announcing plans for attacks.

“When you tell the enemy you’re going to attack them … they’re obviously going to disperse and try to make it harder,” McCain said, adding that Syria is hiding weapons and moving troops and may be moving forces into Syria’s Russian naval base.

McCain said it was a mistake “to warn the enemy that you’re going to attack.”

Dempsey said the military planners have prepared “several target sets” and that follow-on strikes could be conducted after initial strikes.

“What we do know is we can degrade and disrupt his capabilities,” he said.

Both Democrats and Republicans posed difficult questions to the three officials, including whether an attack on Syria will be effective militarily and strategically, and whether an attack might facilitate al Qaeda-linked rebels’ efforts to take power.

Others questioned why the administration had not followed through on public statements promising to provide arms to Syrian rebels fighting the Bashar al Assad regime.

At least five U.S. warships are deployed near Syria in the Eastern Mediterranean and are equipped with cruise missiles.

Defense officials have said a limited, one-day series of cruise missile strikes would be aimed to attack Syrian artillery, rockets, and missiles near Damascus, where the chemical attack took place.

U.S. intelligence agencies determined that nerve agent was used, killing some 1,400 people, including more than 400 children.

Kerry and Hagel, for their part during the hearing, provided halting and sometimes conflicting testimony on what the goal of military action will be.

‪At one point, Kerry declined to rule out the dispatch of ground forces to Syria’s civil war, which has claimed an estimated 100,000 lives.

‪“I don’t want to take off the table an option that might or might not be available to the president that might secure our country,” he said.

‪After news reports picked up on the comment, Kerry sought to tamp down any notion of ground troops being sent to Syria.

Kerry said the president was seeking “limited authority” to strike chemical weapons capabilities and deter the further use of the arms.

“He is not asking for permission from the Congress to go destroy the entire regime or to, you know, do a much more extensive kind of thing,” Kerry said.

Dempsey also said the resolution sought by the administration is “not asking for permission for the president to be able to use the United States armed forces to overthrow the regime.”

However, Hagel, under questioning from Sen. Ron Johnson (R., Wisc.) said “one option” would be the removal of Assad.

“I’m trying to reconcile why, if we’re going to go in there militarily, if we’re going to strike, why wouldn’t we try and do some kind of knock-out punch?” Johnson asked.

Sen. Tom Udall (D., N.M.) said he has doubts about the planned strikes, which he said appeared to be on “shaky international legal foundations.”

“I hope this hearing will do more than just rubber stamp a decision that has already been made by this administration,” Udall said. “I have grave concerns about what the administration is asking of us, of our military and of the American people.”

“We’re being told we’re bombing in order to send a message. But what message are we sending?” Udall asked.

Udall said he viewed the bombing campaign as a “potential next step toward full-fledged war.”

Kerry said limited military attacks were needed to send “the unmistakable message” to Syria regarding the Aug. 21 nerve gas attack near Damascus that “we don’t mean sometimes, never means never.”

“Forcing Assad to change his calculation about his ability to act with impunity can contribute to his realization that he cannot gas or shoot his way out of his predicament,” Kerry said.

Hagel said the military options for Syria are designed to “hold the [Syrian leader Bashar al-]Assad regime accountable, degrade its ability to carry out these kinds of attacks, and deter the regime from further use of chemical weapons.”

“The Department of Defense has developed military options to achieve these objectives, and we have positioned U.S. assets throughout the region to successfully execute this mission,” Hagel said. “We believe we can achieve them with a military action that would be limited in duration and scope.”

Among the risks of a military strike, Hagel said the regime could conduct “even more devastating chemical weapons attacks.”

However, he said refusing to act would undermine the credibility of U.S. security commitments, including promises to block Iran from acquiring nuclear arms, Hagel said.

Dempsey told the panel that the goal of military action would be to degrade Syria’s chemical warfare capabilities.

The four-star general said any upcoming military strike would be focused on the threat of Syria’s chemical weapons. He said supporting the opposition with arms and assistance could come later.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that promised U.S. military support for the Free Syrian Army has been delayed.

However, Saudi Arabia and Turkey currently are providing arms to Islamist groups, including two rebel groups linked to al Qaeda, in addition to the Free Syrian Army, a group dominated by former Syrian army officers and troops.

Assad told the French newspaper Le Figaro this week that western military strikes would lead to a regional conflict in the Middle East, an area he called a “powder keg.”

France’s government released an intelligence report that confirmed that Syria’s government was behind the gas attack.

“The attack on Aug. 21 could only have been ordered and carried out by the regime,” the report stated. “We believe the Syrian opposition does not have the capacity to carry out an operation of such magnitude with chemical agents,” it said.

France’s military is prepared to join the United States in attacks on Syria in response to the gas attacks, although French government spokesmen have said the military would not act on its own and must join a coalition.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said on Monday that “statements from Washington threatening to use force against Syria are unacceptable.” He warned that U.S. action would violate international law, undermine the prospects for a resolution to the Syrian conflict, and provoke further confrontation, Interfax reported.

Also on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said China has “serious concerns” about plans for military strikes. Hong said international military action must conform to the United Nations charter and basic rules of international relations.

This entry was posted in National Security and tagged Barack Obama, Chuck Hagel, John Kerry, Martin Dempsey, Syria. Bookmark the permalink.
 
 
milnews.ca said:
A summary of a recent study out of the Rand Corporation....
A bit more detail in the news release:
As the Syrian civil war drags into its third year with mounting casualties and misery among the civilian population, and the large-scale use of chemical weapons, interest in the possibility of military intervention by the United States and its allies is growing despite U.S. wariness of becoming involved in a prolonged sectarian quagmire. Without presuming that military intervention is the right course, this report considers the goals an intervention relying on airpower alone might pursue and examines the requirements, military potential, and risks of five principal missions that intervening air forces might be called on to carry out: negating Syrian airpower, neutralizing Syrian air defenses, defending safe areas, enabling opposition forces to defeat the regime, and preventing the use of Syrian chemical weapons. It finds that (1) destroying the Syrian air force or grounding it through intimidation is operationally feasible but would have only marginal benefits for protecting Syrian civilians; (2) neutralizing the Syrian air defense system would be challenging but manageable, but it would not be an end in itself; (3) making safe areas in Syria reasonably secure would depend primarily on the presence of ground forces able and willing to fend off attacks, and defending safe areas not along Syria’s borders would approximate intervention on the side of the opposition; (4) an aerial intervention against the Syrian government and armed forces could do more to help ensure that the Syrian regime would fall than to determine what would replace it; and (5) while airpower could be used to reduce the Assad regime’s ability or desire to launch large-scale chemical attacks, eliminating its chemical weapon arsenal would require a large ground operation. Any of these actions would involve substantial risks of escalation by third parties, or could lead to greater U.S. military involvement in Syria.
(....)
You can download a PDF of the complete (22 pages) study here.
 
Russia Sends Missile Cruiser "Moskva", Destroyer And Frigate To Syria

Reproduced under the fair dealing provision of the copyright act from zerohedge

.
It was just yesterday, when we reported on the build up of Russian naval forces in the Meditteranean, in this case two new marine-carrying amphibious assault ships, that we made a simple forecast: "Our prediction: the next ship to be dispatched in direction Syria will be the missile cruiser Moskva, the "flag ship of the Black Sea fleet" and more of its affiliated warships... That, and a whole lot of submarines." We were right.

•RUSSIA SENDS MISSILE CRUISER MOSKVA TO EAST MEDITERRANEAN: IFX
•RUSSIA SENDS DESTROYER, FRIGATE TO EAST MEDITERRANEAN: IFX
•RUSSIA HAS WARSHIPS, SPY VESSELS MONITORING MEDITERRANEAN: IFX
•RUSSIA PREPARED TO ADJUST SIZE OF MEDITERRANEAN BUILDUP: IFX
The deployment is, more than anything, symbolic. It means Russia will no longer take US military build up  in the region on the sidelines. Because while the Mediterranean build up is inevitable (and can be tracked here), the next step will be the arrival of Russian air and land-based support in Syria. Oh, and China. Let's not forget China.

More from Reuters:

Russia is sending a missile cruiser to the east Mediterranean to take over the navy's operations in the region, state agency Interfax quoted a military source as saying on Wednesday, as the United States prepares for a possible military strike in Syria.
President Barack Obama has won backing from key figures in the U.S. Congress in his call for limited U.S. strikes on Syria to punish President Bashar al-Assad for his suspected use of chemical weapons against civilians.



The ship, Moskva, will take over operations from a naval unit in the region that Moscow says is needed to protect national interests. It will be joined by a destroyer from Russia's Baltic Fleet and a frigate from the Black Sea Fleet.



"The Cruiser Moskva is heading to the Gibraltar Straits. In approximately 10 days it will enter the east Mediterranean, where it will take over as the flagship of the naval task force," the source said.


Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said Russia has no intention of getting dragged into any military conflict over Syria.


Earlier this week, Interfax reported that Russia was also sending a reconnaissance ship to the region but that it would operate separately from the naval unit.

Elsewhere, rumor has it all of Congress has been nominated for the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize.

 
From the blog post "These Are the 5 Craziest Conspiracy Theories About Syria's Chemical Attacks":
....OBAMA DID IT!

The theory: In what is so far the most outlandish allegation surrounding the Syria debate, Yossef Bodansky, a defense analyst, argues that it was in fact Obama who planned the attacks. The allegation -- if it can even be called that -- was given wider circulation on Tuesday, when Rush Limbaugh talked up the story on air, and describes a shadowy network of intelligence agencies who are to have orchestrated the attack.

(....)

THE ISRAELIS DID IT!

(....)

THE SYRIANS WERE FRAMED!

(....)

THE REBELS DID IT!

(....)

IT WASN'T REALLY NERVE GAS!

The theory: Conspiratorial thinking about chemical weapons use in Syria can also take on a more benign form, as in Truthout's allegations that U.S. officials have wildly distorted intelligence on the Aug. 21 attack ....  Truthout relies on the voluminous video record of the immediate aftermath of the attacks, when social media activists sped to the scene to document the carnage. But if it wasn't a chemical weapons attack that Syria's video journalists observed that day, why then did all but one of the media activists at one local coordiantion committee die after spending time filming at the site of the attack?
 
A NY Times' opinion piece notes historical similarities when, a century and a half ago, British parliamentarian Sir William Harcourt argued against a public demand for Britain to intervene in the US Civil War.

Sir William advised that the only aim of intervention should be peace, and that “to interpose without the means or the intention to carry into effect a permanent pacification is not to intervene, but to intermeddle.”  Sure, firing cruise missiles from Aegis cruisers could make the Americans feel that they're a morally-superior world leader, but it would be nothing more than 'intermeddling.'

Sir William also warned that “intervention never has been, never will be, never can be short, simple, or peaceable.”

 
myself.only said:
So... just to get your post correctly: you're predicting that if the US intervenes then we'd see a drastic decrease in the use of NBC wpns?
And if the US does not intervene then you're predicting a drastic increase in the use of NBC wpns?

Yes.

I also believe that the initiative of proposing the resolution is intervention in itself.
That proposition also moots any hardline statements coming out of Iran.
If they had any idea of what democracy is, they would not be making such noise.

One must not forget that we must remain focussed on the war on terror. We can sidestep from it
and deal with various conflicts in the world but we must never turn away from it.

 
Follow the money.Qatar wanted to build a gas pipeline across Syria to the Med,so they could sell gas to Europe.Assad declined which helped the Russians as they currently have a monopoly in supplying gas to Europe,which gives them leverage as well.The Gulf states are looking for regime change,so they can get the pipeline built.
 
tomahawk6 said:
Follow the money.Qatar wanted to build a gas pipeline across Syria to the Med,so they could sell gas to Europe.Assad declined which helped the Russians as they currently have a monopoly in supplying gas to Europe,which gives them leverage as well.The Gulf states are looking for regime change,so they can get the pipeline built.

I usually try to keep comments or questions about political figures to myself, but this is one question that is burning in me:

Is Obama as stupid as he appears?  Or is he surrounded by syncophants?
 
Jim Seggie said:
I usually try to keep comments or questions about political figures to myself......
But when you come out of your shell, you certainly don't beat around the bush.    ;D
 
Just to wrap my head around whats going on (in very basic terms).

The US has lost over 4000 soldiers in Iraq with a ton more injured fighting al qaeda.
The President wants to attack the Syrian government which will end up helping al qaeda rebels.

They (President Obama and friends) don't think this will cause some serious butt hurt with US service members and their families?
 
ObedientiaZelum said:
The President wants to attack the Syrian government which will end up helping al qaeda rebels.

Well supposedly not all the Sunni rebels are affiliated with Al-Qaeda. Some factions are reportedly more moderate and just want to get rid of Assad, though the more radical elements seem to be the ones who are reportedly more dominant now.

If you see other posts above, it's clear the Saudis and other Gulf states want intervention in Syria as well since they identify with those radical Sunni elements. That's why they've offered to pay for a Syria invasion.


Furthermore, since this is essentially a Sunni-Shiite proxy war, the Saudis/Gulf states want to use this opportunity to counter Iran's influence in the region. Iran actually sent 4000 Revolutionary Guard troops there, alongside the Hezbollah proxies already there supporting Assad.

Once the US and other Western nations (possibly even Canada in the future) get involved, it'll be a horrible mess that'll be nearly be impossible extricate ourselves from.
 
S.M.A. said:
Well supposedly not all the Sunni rebels are affiliated with Al-Qaeda. Some factions are reportedly more moderate and just want to get rid of Assad, though the more radical elements seem to be the ones who are reportedly more dominant now.

If you see other posts above, it's clear the Saudis and other Gulf states want intervention in Syria as well since they identify with those radical Sunni elements. That's why they've offered to pay for a Syria invasion.


Furthermore, since this is essentially a Sunni-Shiite proxy war, the Saudis/Gulf states want to use this opportunity to counter Iran's influence in the region. Iran actually sent 4000 Revolutionary Guard troops there, alongside the Hezbollah proxies already there.

Once the US and other Western nations (possibly even Canada in the future) get involved, it'll be a horrible mess that'll be nearly be impossible extricate ourselves from.

So just why are our countries even entertaining the idea of get mixed up in this? It is not in our respective countries best interest. The only reason it is still in motion is either a) Save face for the current American President or b) line the pockets of some background organization / group with some serious money.
 
Jed said:
So just why are our countries even entertaining the idea of get mixed up in this? It is not in our respective countries best interest. The only reason it is still in motion is either a) Save face for the current American President or b) line some background organization / group with some serious money.

[game show format]

a.)

final answer.  ;D

[/game show format]


I'd say the above mainly because Obama did say several months ago that he wouldn't tolerate Syria crossing a red line of using chemical weapons. He's just backing up his rhetoric to save face, as you said, although he seems to be trying to reframe his words again, as the above link reports.
 
But, according to the latest from Sweden it is the international community and the rest of the world that is not being responsible and President Obama did not set any Red line, the international community did that.
 
S.M.A. said:
...
I'd say the above mainly because Obama did say several months ago that he wouldn't tolerate Syria crossing a red line of using chemical weapons. He's just backing up his rhetoric to save face, as you said, although he seems to be trying to reframe his words again, as the above link reports.


Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from The Reaganite Republican
cb083013dAPR20130830124535.jpg

Source: http://reaganiterepublicanresistance.blogspot.ca/

 
A good article from counterpunch portion reproduced under the fair dealing provision of the copyright act

Link here http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/09/05/when-in-doubt-say-hitler/

When in Doubt Say “Hitler”
by JP SOTTILE


Poor Pol Pot.

He just can’t get any respect.

Despite a solid resume as a crazed, brutal dictator responsible for killing approximately 1.7 million of his own people, his name never comes up when the caretakers of American empire set their sights on an enemy du jour.

The same goes for Josef Stalin, Chairman Mao, General Franco, Idi Amin, Attila the Hun, Caligula and Vlad the Impaler.

No, when it’s time to fire up the Great American Fear Factory for another “lobbying blitz” and bellicose “product launch,” America’s policymakers conjure up the darkest star of human history. They say “Hitler.”

Saddam Hussein? Say “Hitler.”

Slobodan Milosevic? Say “Hitler.”

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? Say “Hitler.”

And now, as if on cue, Secretary of State John Kerry said “Hitler.”

Faced with sparse domestic and international support for launching expensive cruise missiles into the middle of a civil war, Kerry re-booted the Hitler franchise by comparing Syria’s Bashar al-Assad to history’s first name in unchecked evil. In fact, he compared Assad to Hitler and Saddam Hussein. Looks like Saddam is now in an elite class of evildoer.

Evoking Hitler is the foreign policy equivalent of yelling “fire” in a crowded theater. Comparisons to Hitler are meant to spark an immediate, visceral reaction and designed to “clear out the building.” Once the dissent leaves the room, the debate has effectively ended. It also demarcates a rhetorical red line. If you cross it, you are siding with Hitler.

And no one wants to be on the side of Hitler.

At least, that’s what Team Obama is banking on with its next “lite” war. The Peace Prize President likes bombs and missiles and drones, and that means war without American body bags and graves and, therefore, much domestic fallout.

Team Obama is also banking on ignorance—of historical context and basic historical facts—on the part of the media, members of Congress and the American people. ..."

Comment - Cant say that I agree with the remark about the American people, the vast majority are on to the scam.
 
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