The 2008 Canadian Election- Merged Thread

[Fishbone Jones]

This may very well come back and bite the Conservative party on the buttocks, (as happened in 93 I believe).

I don't think so. So far the MSM has been grasping at straws and trying to find something, anything, that will stick to the CPC that they can make hay with. They're not having much luck.

 

[Edward Campbell]

This may very well come back and bite the Conservative party on the buttocks, (as happened in 93 I believe).

All mistakes are dangerous and that ad was a mistake.

But, the Conservatives have, so far, avoided the trap Dion's team set for them, hoping for a repeat of the '93 blunder. Dion told reporters that his stumbling English is a result of partial deafness* - he wants the Tories to make his language skills an issue so that he can replay the outrage that characterized the reaction to the 1993 Tory ad that focused on Chretién's speech.

I suspect that, absent another rogue ad, this error was made early enough to fade away before it does much harm. By 1700 Hrs it had moved from 'hard news' to curiosity, overshadowed by the (small) cut to the diesel fuel excise tax.


--------------------
* I have some sympathy for him; I’m deaf and it does make learning a new language difficult, especially a tonal language.

I blame the deafness, anyway – there are those who suggest I’m just stupid and or lazy, but that’s only her opinion. 

 

[Rodahn]

All mistakes are dangerous and that ad was a mistake.

But, the Conservatives have, so far, avoided the trap Dion's team set for them, hoping for a repeat of the '93 blunder. Dion told reporters that his stumbling English is a result of partial deafness* - he wants the Tories to make his language skills an issue so that he can replay the outrage that characterized the reaction to the 1993 Tory ad that focused on Chretién's speech.

I suspect that, absent another rogue ad, this error was made early enough to fade away before it does much harm. By 1700 Hrs it had moved from 'hard news' to curiosity, overshadowed by the (small) cut to the diesel fuel excise tax.


--------------------
* I have some sympathy for him; I’m deaf and it does make learning a new language difficult, especially a tonal language.

I blame the deafness, anyway – there are those who suggest I’m just stupid and or lazy, but that’s only her opinion. 

Mr Campbell for the most part I agree with your synopsis. However I also believe that the current attack ads being shown by the CPC, could adversely affect the voters opinion, as occurred in 93. Human nature being such as it is, the voters will begin to wonder if this is the sort of party that they want governing the country.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If the CPC plays it down the middle, I think they'll be fine. Canadians, right now, seem mostly complacent and content, that includes with the current ruling party. The CPC has time to watch the others make their mistakes before stating a solid platform.

Dion is the best thing that could have happened to the CPC.

 

[Edward Campbell]

... if this is the sort of party that they want governing the country.

A whole lot of them are already in that camp. Fortunately, for us Tories, a whole lot more wonder that same thing about Dion's Liberals. The trick is to keep the ratios the same - or 'better.'

The Liberals will try to keep the pooping puffin in the public eye; the Conservatives will have other, better attack ads and they will be watching for and pouncing upon the (inevitable?) Liberal error.

 

[GAP]

An awful lot of people won't forget the pooping puffin.....it is a capstone to the image of Dion.....the CPC won't pay a heavy price because the image matches theirs....

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
The Poll of Polls now says:

Poll                          %
Strategic Counsel   37     29 (No change)
Ekos                  37     25 (Cons NC, Libs +1%)
Environics             38     28 (No change)
Ipsos                   33     21 (Cons -6%, Libs -10%)
Segma        43   25 (What happened to Nanos, who the hell is Segma?)
Angus Reid            36     28 (No change)
Harris/Decima        38     28 (Cons +3%, Libs -6%)

Nanos (which used to be SES and was noteworthy for the accuracy of its predictions in the last two or three elections) is, as it was in some past elections the CPAC pollster but it is also , now, the Sun Media pollster, too. Maybe that's why the Good Grey Globe dropped them from their list of polling firms.

SEGMA appears to be the polling firm working for La Presse. It's numbers (for the Conservatives) are pretty far out of line, but not, maybe, far enough away to be classified as a rogue poll.

 

[Kirkhill]

Re the Puffin.

Idiotic play.  And highly dangerous.

Having said that, it is not in the interest of either the CPC nor the LPC to dredge that to the surface.  Some portion of the population will find themselves laughing at Dion's expense - while the rest merely remember the image.

Unlike the 93 ad (presumably the one making fun of Chretien's paralysis) this image is not benign.  The Chretien ad replayed Chretien as he was.  It reinforced the image of him as the hard-done-by little guy from Shawinigan. 

This one has no redeeming value and is best buried.  For both parties' sakes.

 

[a_majoor]

Another factor waiting in the wings (and another, unacknowledged player in the election)

http://www.damianpenny.com/archived/011859.html

Taliban on target

Our election, that is (via Danjanou):

    KANDAHAR, Afghanistan -- The Taliban say they know that an election campaign is underway in Canada and that's why they have stepped up attacks against Canadians in Afghanistan.

    Taliban spokesman Qari Muhammad Yussef said Tuesday the insurgent movement wants Canada's next prime minister to pull Canadian troops out of Afghanistan.

    "Yes, I know that the election is being held in Canada. That is why our attacks on Canadians are increased," Yussef said through a translator.

    "One of the Canadian soldiers, who has won a medal as well, was killed in our recent attacks."

    Sgt. Scott Shipway died Sunday when his armoured vehicle struck an improvised explosive device in the volatile Panjwaii district of Kandahar.

    The seasoned soldier, who was cited for saving a comrade's life during his previous tour in Afghanistan in 2006, was just days away from the end of his second tour when the blast occurred.

    Yussef said he's familiar with Prime Minister Stephen Harper but isn't sure about the other candidates or parties running in the Canadian election.

    While he doesn't know which party is most likely to withdraw Canadian troops from Afghanistan, Yussef said such a platform will be "good for that party and for their nation and for the Canadian people."

    "My suggestion for the next prime minister is to withdraw Canadians from Afghanistan," he said, adding Canada needs to stop following U.S. foreign policy...

Given the actual pre-election call dates of the most recent fatalities, I think Mr Yussef is just spinning bull. But the Talibs are awfully good at spinning--and they certainly are targeting Western publics (something the Globe and Mail's man in D.C. just noticed; what a bright bulb).

More on the Taliban's PR prowess (further to this post of Damian's): what the Taliban are reading--and work hard to read:

    Afghan [actually Canadian] deaths may hurt Tory campaign

Our side's major achievements, however, are barely covered in the Canadian media. No wonder the public is not happy with the mission.

I worry that, if M.Dion's position looks desperate in a few weeks and if there are quite a few more fatalities, he may throw the Liberals' agreement to extending the mission until 2011 to the winds and demand a much earlier withdrawal of Canadian troops. Thereby handing the Taliban quite a political victory--and maybe getting a lot of votes.

Now a bigger picture;

    Pakistan's Great Game

 

[Foxhound]

Unlike the 93 ad (presumably the one making fun of Chretien's paralysis) this image is not benign.  The Chretien ad replayed Chretien as he was.  It reinforced the image of him as the hard-done-by little guy from Shawinigan.

I somewhat disagree, Kirkhill.

Re: the Chretién speech impediment ad, I believe that people were more outraged at what they percieved as the Conservatives 'making fun of' an unfortunate physical impediment.  Whereas the "Pooping Puffin" ad looks like an amateurish homemade YouTube® chuckle.

Can you seriously imagine Stephen Harper looking at a rough draft of the ad and then turning to a flunky and saying, "Y'know, I like it, but maybe you should have a bird fly by and poop on him."?

Neither can I, and I don't believe that most voters will ascribe much significance to it either.

The image may not be benign and it was idiotic, but as others have said, it is early in the campaign, and I can't see this as having a profound effect on where people put their "X".

 

[Kirkhill]

Foxhound,

I agree that it is unlikely to have an effect, and you make a good point about the amateurish aspect.  I doubt that the PM would have anything to do with such an undertaking (perhaps I just hope so).  But there are such things as underground ad campaigns and people are making big bucks selling shampoo by YouTube.  It is not an unknown art.

Unfortunately it seems that over-zealous youngsters, and oldsters, are not beyond planting ads with the intention of creating a backlash.  It is not beyond the possibility that the "ad" was posted by a Young Liberal with the intention of discrediting those nasty Tories.

In the States, in the past few days, it seems that some young lefties posted a Sambo ad targeted at Obama, purporting to come from a right wing source.

 

[Foxhound]

Unfortunately it seems that over-zealous youngsters, and oldsters, are not beyond planting ads with the intention of creating a backlash.  It is not beyond the possibility that the "ad" was posted by a Young Liberal with the intention of discrediting those nasty Tories.

I could consider this a possibility except for the fact the the Conservative team has already admitted complicity citing, "an overzealous Web designer" ( http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080909.welxnmain10/BNStory/politics/ )*

*Sorry, don't know how to insert links.

 

[Kirkhill]

Thanks Foxhound.  I wasn't aware of that.  Mea Culpa.

 

[RangerRay]

Thus that leaves the greens... a  new party with no experience at any of the above mainstream politics, thus we have a 50/50 shot that they will screw up in favour of the common folk...

I would think with <a href="http://transmontanus.blogspot.com/2008/09/whats-with-these-crackpots-is-anti.html">crackpots</a> like these for candidates, the odds of the Greens screwing up are considerably larger than 50/50...

 

[Edward Campbell]

I inadvertently deleted most of an earlier post about what I called the ”delightful inconsistency” of the reports on polls.

My point was that while, according to the Globe and Mail’s Poll of Polls, the leads the Liberals held in two of the component polls have disappeared the Globe reports that:

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080909.welxnpoll10/BNStory/politics/home

Tory momentum slows in swing ridings since election call

CAMPBELL CLARK

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
September 9, 2008 at 9:14 PM EDT

OTTAWA — The wave of rising support that the Conservatives rode into the election campaign appears to have ebbed in the country's crucial battleground ridings since the writ was dropped, a new poll indicates.

The Conservatives have still gained ground since the last election in 45 ridings where the races were close, but their opponents have rebounded a little since the campaign for the Oct. 14 election officially opened on the weekend.

The Strategic Counsel poll for The Globe and Mail and CTV News tracks the 45 ridings in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec that saw tight races in 2006 or in recent by-elections.

Of the 45 ridings, 20 are in Ontario, 15 in Quebec and 10 in B.C. And they are a mix of 17 ridings won by the Liberals, 16 that went Conservative, eight won by the Bloc and four where the NDP prevailed. Surveys are conducted daily, with three-day running tallies comprising a poll of 1,325 Canadians.

Their status as swing ridings makes them key battlegrounds where the national election can be won or lost, or a minority government converted to a majority.

The first three-day rolling poll, conducted Sept. 4 to 6, indicated the Conservatives might be a developing juggernaut in swing ridings after Mr. Harper made a series of pre-election announcements and launched a barrage of TV ads. But the latest, conducted Sept 6 to 8, suggested the momentum has slowed.

In B.C, the New Democrats have shaved off some of the Conservative gains, and in Quebec, the Bloc has bounced back. And in Ontario, there are modest indications the Liberals have stanched the bleeding of support to the Greens.

“There's a bit of a coming home here,” said the Strategic Counsel's Peter Donolo.

In the 10 B.C. battleground ridings, the NDP gained seven percentage points, jumping to 24 per cent from 17.

It was the Conservatives who saw their big lead there slip a little, dropping four percentage points, to 41 per cent. The Liberals also dipped two points, to 23 per cent.

In the 15 Quebec ridings that had close races, the Bloc is now leading the Tories, not trailing. The Bloc jumped five percentage points, to 32 per cent, at the expense of both the Conservatives, now at 30, and the Liberals, at 21.

That's still a huge gain for the Conservatives since the past election, however, when they trailed the Bloc by 14 percentage points. Just as encouraging for Quebec Tories: they are tied with the Bloc for support among francophone voters.

In the 20 Ontario battlegrounds, the Conservatives remain stable at 41 per cent, four percentage points higher than in the past election. But the Greens have slipped five points since the campaign opened, losing to the Liberals (up two percentage points) and the NDP (up three).

Voters in battleground ridings, at least, appear engaged in the campaign, with large proportions saying they believe their vote can make a difference and that there are substantial differences between the two principal contenders for power, the Conservatives and Liberals.

Even among NDP and Green supporters, 6 in 10 see big differences between the two major contenders, perhaps an indicator that some might switch to a bigger party on voting day.

The poll also indicates that the Conservatives' strength in battleground ridings is fuelled by a commanding lead among male voters, those with higher incomes, and voters over 50.

The Liberals, who typically need a lead among female voters to win, are trailing the Tories among women in the B.C. and Quebec battlegrounds, and are essentially tied among women in the Ontario battleground.

“It used to be almost mirror image, where the men would disproportionately go for Conservatives. Now [the Conservatives] have still got their advantage with men and they've evened the score with women,” Mr. Donolo said.

It is apparent that Harper is assiduously courting traditional Liberal voters: ethnic families in the suburbs in an effort to firm up his support in the ridings the Strategic Counsel pollsters have identified as ‘key.’

 

[Edward Campbell]

Notwithstanding the consensus here in Milnet.ca that the JSS, per se, was not a good idea it appears hat some Newfoundlanders are reading something else into it all:

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the CBC web site:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2008/09/10/williams-leaders-elxn.html

burin891 wrote: (Posted 2008/09/10
at 7:01 AM ET) the ABC [NF Premier Danny Williams’ Anyone But the Conservatives] campaign should come to a thundering halt.

There are several reasons for this with the main one being - I don't need the Premier to tell me who to vote for. I am a grown man and can make my own decisions.

Yes it was fun to watch the dispute between the Prime Minister and the Premier but it now has to stop. I believe this dispute between the two cost Marystown the JSS contract. Can you recall anytime prior to this when a contract didn't go ahead even with cost over runs. It may have been scaled back but this was straight across the board. That was a generation of work to the Marystown area. St Johns is booming but elsewhere is not.

If I was the Premier I would go meet with the PM and discuss man to man. If I could get a 2.9 billion dollar contract with 20 years of work for an area of my Province I would do it in a heartbeat. If it means I would have to suck up some of the comments I made in the past I would. This is business and now we are into personality and ego.

If we lose such a large contract like that when the PM has a minority, what will we get when he has a majority.

There is an old saying: there's a big difference in quitting while you are ahead and just quitting.

Mr Premier, get the contract, suck up your past comments, (we will forgive you for that), and let the rest of the Province enjoy and prosper. This is only politics, who believed Harper in the first place on the royalty issue. I knew it was an election ploy and so did everyone else. Let's move on.

Can anyone from Newfoundland and Labrador shed any light on how Williams’ ABC campaign is going over. I guess I can understand some of his frustrations, and his somewhat over the top negotiating tactics have been used against Conservatives and Liberals alike, but is this really in NF’s best interests?

 

[GAP]

There are several reasons for this with the main one being - I don't need the Premier to tell me who to vote for. I am a grown man and can make my own decisions

I think that comment alone is going to gather some momentum.....the rest of his comments make perfect sense to me, but is everybody in NL so starry eyed about Williams they would ignore it?

 

[Celticgirl]

I was reading an article on CTV.CA today about Harper's announcement re: our commitment in Afghanistan ending in 2011 (if he is re-elected). There was also a mention in the article about the 'pooping puffin' ad. Guess what the comments that follow the article zeroed in on? It seems the mission has been forgotten thanks to some cartoon bird pooping on Dion's head. This is what people think is a major issue worthy of extended discussion, debate, and analysis?  :

Link to CTV article and comments

 

[Edward Campbell]

I was reading an article on CTV.CA today about Harper's announcement re: our commitment in Afghanistan ending in 2011 (if he is re-elected). There was also a mention in the article about the 'pooping puffin' ad. Guess what the comments that follow the article zeroed in on? It seems the mission has been forgotten thanks to some cartoon bird pooping on Dion's head. This is what people think is a major issue worthy of extended discussion, debate, and analysis?  :

Link to CTV article and comments

If the issue of choice for the majority of my fellow Canadians is poopin' puffins or the Afghanistan mission then I prefer that they debate the puffins. Poopin' puffins are just about complex enough for most Canadians.

 

[Celticgirl]

Poopin' puffins are just about complex enough for most Canadians.

I think you may be right.  :blotto: