Another day, another set of polls:
Ekos says:
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CONSERVATIVES DOMINATE ENGLISH CANADA; DOGFIGHT IN QUEBEC
[OTTAWA – September 24, 2008] – The Conservative Party now has a lead in every major region of the country except Quebec, where they are competitive outside Montreal. They have formidable strength in British Columbia, especially outside central Vancouver, and in the rest of the West. They lead in Ontario, by a wide margin outside of Toronto, and are ahead, if only barely and intermittently in the Atlantic provinces.
Increasingly, the Conservative lead over the other parties seems “locked in”, and it would take a major event to disrupt their path to victory now. Liberal support also seems to be gelling (at a much lower level), though there is considerable volatility still among the NDP and the Greens. There is some sign that the growth of the Greens that was a striking element in last week’s story has begun to plateau.
Unless one opposition party emerges more strongly from the pack, which again would take a major breach in the dynamics of the campaign, it seems that the Tories have a prospect at winning a majority, despite their inability so far to break past the 40% barrier. Whether non-Tory voters are aware of it or not, two unusual factors give Harper an excellent shot at a majority: 1) the dispersion of their vote among four parties, and 2) the size of the lead they have opened over the second place Liberals.
So, lets look at some of the regional races. Our large sample sizes give us an excellent picture into what is happening in the larger provinces.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives have established a commanding lead. The Green Party, which was threatening to make it a four-way race in the province just a few days ago has now faded, leaving the Liberals and NDP duking it our for second spot. However, this broad provincial picture disguises the urban/rural split that we dealt with yesterday. The NDP is in a powerful position in central Vancouver. The further you move from downtown “Van”, however, the greater the dominance of the Conservatives.
In Ontario, there has also been a bit of a Green fade, but here to the apparent benefit of the Liberals. That has kept the Liberals within striking distance of the leading Conservatives in the province, but like B.C., the provincial picture disguises the urban/rural reality. The Liberals dominate central Toronto, but the further you get from the CN Tower, the more competitive the Conservatives are. In fact, outside the GTA, they are dominant. The NDP has regional concentrations, of course, that will win it seats.
In Quebec, we see continuing strength for the Bloc Québécois, who in our soundings are running strong – well ahead of the other parties. The reason the race seems so competitive in the province is that, while the BQ is a significant force in most of Quebec (with some exceptions in predominantly non-francophone areas), it faces different opponents in the city of Montreal and the other parts of the province. The Conservatives, who are their principal opponents outside Montreal have actually sagged somewhat since the race began. The Liberals seem set to capture seats again in the Montreal area, but the NDP and even the Greens may also be competitive enough in some seats to seriously complicate the Liberals’ hopes.
BQ: 9% (+1)
Cons: 37% (+1)
Greens: 11% (-1)
Libs: 24% (-1)
NDP: 19% (NC)
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Harris-Decima says:
Conservatives Up 13
BQ: 9% (+1)
Cons: 37% (NC)
Greens: 12% (+1)
Libs: 24% (NC)
NDP: 16% (-1)
In
Ontario, the Conservatives have 37%, the Liberals 33%, the NDP 15% and the Greens 12%.
In
Quebec, the BQ shows some signs of recovering lost ground and stands at 37%, the Conservatives follow with 23%, the Liberals at 16%, the NDP 14% and the Greens at 9%.
In
Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have 35%, the NDP 28%, the Conservatives 26% and the Green Party 8%.
In
British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 37%, followed by the NDP with 26%, the Greens at 19% and the Liberals at 15%.
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Nanos says:
Tories lead by 11, Liberal slide continues
BQ: 9% (+1)
Cons: 37% (-1)
Greens: 7% (+1)
Libs: 26% (-1)
NDP: 21% (NC)
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What does it mean? Nothing.
Nothing has changed because all day-by-day
movement is well within the statistical margins of error.
Neither the Conservatives
gaffes nor the Arts Funding issues is making any difference. Their votes stays, pretty much, where it was when the election started and where it was when we last voted in 2006. But the poor Liberal campaign and Dion,
per se and/or something else are doing something to them – they are down fairly dramatically from Day 1 of the campaign and they are 4 to 6 points (statistically significant numbers) below their 2006 support levels (30%). The NDP is up from the start and from 2006; the Greens and NDP are about level. But even the shifts (-5 for the Liberals and +4 for the NDP are not very large – apply the margins of error and we’re taking, maybe, 1 or 2 points, either way, for each of them.
