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The 2008 Canadian Election- Merged Thread

JBG said:
The formation of the United Nations (to its very limited credit) has eliminated most but not all wars between nation-states.

I don't have enough fingers to count the number of times there have been wars between Nation States, since the inception of the UN.  I could start with Korea, and move on to Vietnam, Algeria, Israel, Egypt, Syria, Turkey, Greece, Lebanon, Sudan, Argentina, etc.  Just because we haven't seen a major conflict in the form of a World War, doesn't mean that war has gone away.
 
A pretty interesting interactive electoral map. Click on your province then drill down to your riding. IF you live in an urban area, look for the white square and click on it to zoom in:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/?page_id=46

Enjoy
 
Here, from the same source as Thucydides’ neat, interactive map, is another seat projection:

BQ: 41
Cons: 153
Greens: 0
Libs: 86
NDP: 27
Others: 1

WLU gives more seats to the Conservatives (+5) and Liberals (+20) and fewer to the BQ (-14) and NDP (-11) than does Ekos as reported here.

Here, for those of you who managed a bit more than Grade 10 math, is a paper on the methodology used for the seat projections by WLU.

 
The University of British Columbia ‘samples’ opinion by a different method: an Election Stock Market. One needs to read in a bit before deciding if this a good or not so good predictor, but their seat projection is:

BQ: 37
Cons: 145
Greens: 2
Libs: 79
NDP: 44
Other: 1

Remember that people are ‘betting’ here and some highly partisan folks may have bet good money just to advance their cause – which may explain the projected 2 Green seats. (Note: I project that André Arthur will, again, win Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier as an independent. I’m guessing the other two “Otr” seats are ‘earmarked’ as Green by the buyers.)


 
Sorta-kinda like polls (in terms of allegedly predictive numbers) are some prediction projects online, and what they show.

Here's what UBC's Election Stock Market is showing (graphic may change from current posting because it appears to be updated periodically):
seatchart.png


The Election Prediction Project shows this:
CPC    118
Liberal  72
NDP      22
Bloc      29
Other      2
Too Close  65

And Laurier's Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy shares this:
CPC          153
Liberal      86
NDP          27
Bloc          41
Independ    1

Feel free to track, share and discuss!
 
Here, from Hill and Knowlton is another interesting tool:

You use the “Make a prediction” button/bar to enter your own data – maybe from some of the polls reported here or here – and then ‘see’ the seat results.

Using Nanos most recent numbers (very moderately adjusted to give 1% to ‘Others’ and get down to 100%), for example, I get:

BQ: 49
Cons: 155
Greens: 0
Libs: 65
NDP: 38
Others: 1

Have fun!
 
The NDP, bless their pointed little heads, have returned to their Stalinist roots according to this article reproduced under the fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080928.welxnndpplatform0928/BNStory/politics/home
NDP platform pledges billions for child care

OMAR EL AKKAD

TORONTO

September 28, 2008 at 12:15 PM EDT

Globe and Mail Update — NDP leader Jack Layton has made child care the centrepiece of the New Democratic Party's 2008 election campaign platform, which was unveiled in Toronto Sunday morning and which the party plans to pay for the majority of by hiking corporate tax rates.

The single largest expenditure in the NDP's multibillion-dollar platform is a child benefit that will cost $500-million in 2009, double for the next two years and then more than double to $4.4-billion by 2012.

Under the program, the NDP says every family will continue to get the so-called "baby bonus" cheques of $100 a month under a program started by the Conservatives. But families with a net income less than $188,000 a year will qualify for a benefit of about $250 a month. Families with a net income of less than $38,000 will qualify for a benefit of $400 a month by the time the program is fully implemented.

As virtually every major federal party has done, the NDP promises not to run a deficit.

Like the Liberals, the NDP based its fiscal plan on the Conservative government's 2008 budget projected surpluses, which are more than six months old and are widely believed to be overly rosy in light of the economic slowdown in recent months. But by far the biggest revenue generator in the NDP plan is derived from reversing corporate tax cuts.

In 2009, the projected surplus from the reversal is $7.3-billion. By 2012, that number almost doubles to $14.2-billion.

Between 2003 and 2007, the corporate tax rate was 22.12 per cent. The NDP says the Conservatives lowered that to 19.5 per cent this year, and progressively down to 15 per cent by 2012. Under the NDP plan, the rate would climb to 22.12 per cent and stay there.

In a background briefing, an NDP official said the party is not raising the corporate tax rate, instead repeatedly insisting that companies will pay next year what they paid last year.

While the latter part of that statement is correct, the former is not. The NDP's own numbers show that the corporate tax rate in 2008 is 19.5 per cent. If the NDP is elected and the party implements its plan, the rate would climb to 22.12 per cent in 2009, a clear increase.

The NDP is also counting on what it calls a "peace dividend." That's the projected savings from the party's plan to withdraw combat troops from Afghanistan. NDP officials say the estimate comes from an Access To Information request to the Department of National Defence. The party estimates a savings of $600-million in 2009, rising to $1.1-billion in 2010 and the same amount in 2011.

In addition to the projected budget surplus, the corporate tax cut reversal and the peace dividend, the party also plans to save money by tightening up spending projections. The NDP argues that the government typically overestimates its spending by 3 per cent. By tightening that limit to 2 per cent, the NDP promises to save about $2.3-billion a year. However that number is based purely on recent government spending history and the NDP's assumption that such trends will continue in the future.

Once it is done paying for all its programs, the NDP projects a surplus of $3.375-billion in 2009, rising to $5.03-billion by 2011 and dropping back to $3.8-billion in 2012 (the "peace dividend" runs out between those two years). The party promises to spend all surpluses equally on infrastructure investments and debt repayment.

The NDP platform is clearly designed to present voters with a stark contrast between Mr. Layton – whom the party has framed as a leader whose primary concern is the average working family – and Conservative leader Stephen Harper, who the NDP paints as preoccupied with placating already-profitable corporations.

"We're making it clear with this platform today that our priorities are those of the kitchen table, not just the boardroom table," Mr. Layton said in a statement accompanying the platform's release. "Canadian families have a clear choice: Mr. Harper's corporate tax giveaways or New Democrats' investments in the priorities of families.

NDP officials attempted to justify the reversal of the corporate tax cuts by saying that the cuts, by definition, go to companies that pay taxes, and are thus profitable. Therefore, officials argued, already-profitable companies gain from the cuts, while struggling industries such as manufacturing and forestry do not.

Profitable companies receive few such perks under the NDP plan. Indeed, the vast majority of expenditures are aimed at middle- and lower-income Canadians.

Among the NDP platform promises:

• An affordable housing program that will cost $500-million in 2009 and climb to $1-billion by 2012.

• An energy retrofitting program aimed at low income Canadians, which will cost $200-million in 2009 and climb to $1.2-billion by 2012.

• A $5-billion commitment over five years in programs for First Nations, Metis and Inuit communities.

• A $1000 grant to all undergraduate students who qualify for student loans. The program is to be implemented in 2010 and will cost $1.5-billion by 2012.

• Additional funding for foreign aid and international development. The funding adds $250-million to Canada's current commitment in 2009, rising to an extra $1-billion in 2012.


This will appeal to the NDP’s base and to the left wing of the Liberal Party, both of which are economically illiterate and socially irresponsible (and to some Greens – but not the pre-May Greens who were of a fiscally prudent mind). Elsewhere Celine Stéphane Dion called this platform a job killer: that shows he might not be all wrong all the time. But, basically, this budget would satisfy Mao Zedong, Joseph Stalin, Pierre Trudeau or Tim Buck, but one suspects that poor old Tommy Douglas is rolling in his grave. The ‘no deficit’ promise is on par with Jean Drapeau’s whopper about the (1976) Montréal Olympics not losing money.


 
The ‘no deficit’ promise is on par with Jean Drapeau’s whopper about the (1976) Montréal Olympics not losing money.

Was there not the comparison to the likelyhood of him having a baby.?
 
Fiddling with the Hill and Knowlton predictor and following some reported trends, I entered these support level ‘splits’ in the "Make a prediction" thingy:

BQ: 8% - assuming a very slight loss of support over the next two weeks
Cons: 39% - assuming they cannot break the 40% ‘ceiling’
Greens: 6% - assuming voters go ‘strategic’ in favour of the NDP
Libs: 22% - assuming their recent fall continues for two weeks
NDP: 24% - assuming their recent rise continues for two weeks and they gain at the Greens’ expense
Others: 1%

I got these results:

BQ: 47 seats
Cons: 155 seats – a Conservative majority, albeit the barest possible one
Greens: 0 seats
Libs: 52 seats
NDP: 53 seats – Jack and Olivia move into Stornoway because he becomes the Leaders of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition
Others: 1 seat

 
The percentages are a very fine line in this election. It is conceivable that the Torries can still gain a majority while below the magic 40% threshold. With the vote split on the left, they are left in the same situation that Cretien was in during his last two majorities... both of which he achieved with 37 and 38 percent.
 
Edward is tech staff qualified thanks to having attended the excellent course run at the Royal Military College of Science in the UK. Thus he can carefully pick the data apart, give it the shake, rattle and roll test and voila, out pops a prediction based on something more that a guesstimate. I am, on the other hand, a graduate of Foxhole U, the old one year course at the Canadian Land Forces Command and Staff College at Fort Frontenac in Kingston. Thus I am highly schooled in the principle that tactics is the opinion of the senior officer present, and he learned his tactics two decades and several changes in doctrine and equipment ago. Moreover I have learned that a SWAG (scientific wild-assed guess) usually can be used to prove one's presience as the result, no matter how far off the mark, can be argued as being pretty good, giving the changing conditions. Thus, a couple of weeks ago, I came up with the only number the matters, the ones won by the winning party, and predicted the max the CPC will do is 162.

And if all else fails, when I am proven once again to be wildly wide of the mark, I will use the gunner's last resort and claim I could not hear my own prediction because of hearing loss.
 
I just ran some rough numbers for the NDP child care promise of 225,000 daycare spaces by year 4 (if elected).

Assuming 5 children per daycare worker, we are talking 45,000 trained and accredited early childhood workers that don't exist (unless Jack intends on using laid-off GM and Chrysler workers in the child care field).  This also speaks nothing of the bureaucracy to manage this, which, would have to add at least another 10,000 people, you are looking at an organization the size of the CF, created from scratch, to look after your kids.  Yeah, I'll be lining up to drop my kid into that  ::)

Let's talk cost.  I think we can safely assume that these will be union jobs.  Using a very conservative $20.00/hr wage, you are looking at $40K/yr/worker ($80K/yr one benefits are factored in).

Multiply that by 55,000 and you get....$4.4  BILLION/year for wages alone- and you still haven't built one building or bought one toy. 

Dream on, Mr Layton.
 
OK; Predictions AKA SWAGs

Old Sweat: Conservatives - 162 seats and a Majority
E.R. Campbell: Conservatives - 155 seats and a Majority

Who else wants in?

 
The number 136 and a minority with the Liberals (barely) holding Opposition sticks in my head for some reason that I cannot shake.

I think that the Liberals are likely to go super-negative this week and also start to encourage strategic voting.  The Tory numbers could start to soften- they did last time.

 
Conservative Majority 178 seats

edited to add: Layton just gave a passel of ammunition to both Dion and Harper with his platform announced today...

Used judiciously, you should see NDP poll numbers drop, but the dabates are going to determine a lot...
 
GAP said:
Used judiciously, you should see NDP poll numbers drop, but the dabates are going to determine a lot...
Will Dion need a translator for the debates?
 
I suspect the thinnest of majorities (or even a virtual majority, once you discount the speaker of the house and assume the independent MP will side with the governing party), and also predict some opportunistic floor crossing that solidifies the majority the day after.
 
;D  With the number of candidates who have been forced to withdraw from the race, I am beginning to wonder if we will really have any left to elect.  Perhaps it will boil down to "the Last One Standing" and we will have Parliamentarians by default.
 
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