The 2008 Canadian Election- Merged Thread

[a_majoor]

Matthew, in a globalized economy with easy capital and labour mobility, the status of the debt is less important than the comparison of tax rates and ROI between competing jurisdictions. If one jurisdiction has an economic surplus (a real surplus like you describe, not an overtaxation like our political class likes to define as a surplus) then they have more flexibility to make large tax cuts.

Sweden made the tax cuts to stay competative with places like Ireland and Poland, not because they have a comfortable cusion of accumulated assets. Indeed, you could make the argument that a nation like Canada without an asset cusion needs to make more agressive tax cuts in order to prevent bleeding of current labour and capital.

 

[GAP]

Just in case you think all the Green Party candidates are loony left fruitcakes, check out this fellow.

Does not the CF reflect the same general dispersal as the country?  ;D

 

[Edward Campbell]

It’s a new day so here are new polls.

--------------------
Ekos Says:

[OTTAWA – September 29, 2008] – Relatively little change in the national top line numbers today. We continue to see the Conservatives weaker in Quebec and the BQ stronger than at the beginning of the campaign.

Note that due to technical problems, we had fewer cases this weekend than we normally do. We have extended our reporting period to four days to ensure a sound sample.

BQ: 10%
Cons: 34%
Greens: 10%
Libs: 26%
NDP: 20%

--------------------

Harris-Decima says:

BQ: 8%
Cons: 36%
Greens: 9%
Libs: 26%
NDP: 19%

--------------------

Nanos says:

BQ: 9%
Cons: 36%
Greens: 9%
Libs: 26%
NDP: 20%

--------------------

The numbers are pretty consistent and they lead us to guestimate a Conservative minority, albeit somewhat stronger than in 2006, a much reduced Liberal Party and a much stronger NDP.

But the polls probably don’t mean a lot until Friday’s results start to show up. The last 10 days matter most.


Edit: typo - corrected date in my comment

 

[dapaterson]

Just in case you think all the Green Party candidates are loony left fruitcakes, check out this fellow.

Air Force officer, AERE no less... how does that disprove the loony fruitcake part of your assertion ?

 

[Cdn Blackshirt]

Matthew, in a globalized economy with easy capital and labour mobility, the status of the debt is less important than the comparison of tax rates and ROI between competing jurisdictions. If one jurisdiction has an economic surplus (a real surplus like you describe, not an overtaxation like our political class likes to define as a surplus) then they have more flexibility to make large tax cuts.

Sweden made the tax cuts to stay competative with places like Ireland and Poland, not because they have a comfortable cusion of accumulated assets. Indeed, you could make the argument that a nation like Canada without an asset cusion needs to make more agressive tax cuts in order to prevent bleeding of current labour and capital.

Thucydides, in a globalized economy with easy capital and labour mobility, the "status of debt" is becoming the single greatest determining factor impacting various jurisdictions abilty to adjust their competing tax rates. This is not an economic policy issue.  This is a very simple accounting issue.  If you can't visualize the impact of the different balance sheets in this regard, I don't know what to tell you....


Matthew. 

 

[a_majoor]

I think we are looking at the same problem from two different angles:

You say (correctly) that a good balance sheet with accumulated assets can allow a tax cut, and prudent fiscal management is its own reward.

I say (also correctly) that Company "X" is looking for the best ROI, so if Jurisdiction "Y" has a better ROI due to low taxes and regulations, they will tend to go to that jurisdiction. If Jurisdiction "Y" happens to have a poor balance sheet, then they need to attract as many business and investors as possible. Holding onto high rates of taxation to balance the books becomes a loosing proposition when the very business and workers who's tax dollars you need choose to do business outside your jurisdiction.

Remember, Sweden did not choose to lower their tax rates because they have a positive asset balance; they did so to stay competitive with nations like Poland and Ireland (who, so far as I know, do not have a positive balance of assets on their books).

 

[Edward Campbell]

Air Force officer, AERE no less... how does that disprove the loony fruitcake part of your assertion ?

Yeah, OK ... game, set and match to you.

 

[JBG]

The numbers are pretty consistent and they lead us to guestimate a Conservative minority, albeit somewhat stronger than in 2008, a much reduced Liberal Party and a much stronger NDP.

Did you mean 2006 rather than 2008 by any chance? Or did I miss a writ-drop from stateside?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Did you mean 2006 rather than 2008 by any chance? Or did I miss a writ-drop from stateside?

Fixed, thanks.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I’m guessing that the ongoing financial crisis plays, big time, in Stephen Harper’s favour.

The debates, upon which Celine Stéphane Dion appears to be placing sooooo much hope, will take place before the US Congress can do much except start talking amongst themselves ( Rosh Hashanah – the Jewish New Year – isn’t over until sunset, Wed, 1 Oct). Dion and Taliban Jack Layton will be easy targets for a calm, cool, competent Harper who can say, “This is exactly the wrong time to impose a carbon tax on Canadians and it is exactly the wrong time to raise corporate taxes. Dion and Layton want to put tens of thousands of ordinary, hard working Canadians on EI – if they aren’t already here. I want to go slow and steady; I want to allow the well regulated Canadian economic system to recover and to continue creating new jobs. Dion and Layton want to experiment and run deficits and drive us into a recession and kill jobs.”

Of course, that’s not at all what either Celine or Taliban Jack really want to do – but it will, likely, work in the debate.

I expect the financial news to stay bad for the duration of the election – and for the duration of the US election, too. There will be a few good days (today may even be one as smart investors rush in to snap up bargains left behind by the panic stricken stampede towards the bottom by the mainstream ‘investors’) but, by and large, bad news will keep Canadians frightened for their jobs and pensions and may make them shift away from the NDP and towards the Liberals and, in greater numbers, away from the Liberals (and the BQ) and towards the Conservatives.

 

[a_majoor]

Another view of a possible "Progressive" merger after the wreckage clears on Oct 15:

http://www.politicalstaples.com/2008/09/30/too_many_left_wing_parties.html

Too many left wing parties?

Check out an episode of The Agenda from last week entitled The Left - Too Many Parties?. Even though the episode is disappointing, not the fault of the topic, the fault of the guests, is does speak to an interesting dynamic going on in the election, as the chorus increases for a united left. The way I see it is that there is not a divided left, there is a divided non-Conservative vote. The Green Party used to be a post-ideology party under Jim Harris but you can make an argument that Elizabeth May is a left-wing leader. The BQ got criticized for turning into the NDP during this campaign but they are a separatist party so they can't be brought into the fold. Sure the NDP are an actual left-wing party but the Liberals? Because of Stephane Dion's focus on the Green Shift the Liberals have "moved to the left" but the Turner-Martin-Ignatieff wing is not giving this ground without a fight.

    ...There seems to be a conscious attempt by the right wing of the party to take it back to its centrist roots and to play down the Green Shift experiment that Stephane Dion has embarked upon. "This election is a battle for the centre ground of Canadian life. Mr. Harper wants you to believe our party has abandoned the centre ground. He wants you to believe we have swung left. He's wrong," said Mr. Ignatieff,
    ...The gloom among Liberals before Mr. Martin and Mr. Ignatieff arrived at the breakfast speech was so pervasive that this reporter almost felt the urge to put a consoling arm around one or two and tell them: "And this too shall pass".
    "It's too late this time," said one who appreciates the full extent of the Liberals' woes. "We've moved to the left of the NDP. This party is broken."


So if the Liberals are a centrist party then there can be no merger on the left. If the Liberals are a left-wing party they will lose their business wing in a merger. So this whole merger concept is the ultimate example of easier said than done.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Another day another set of polls ...

--------------------

Ekos says:

LIBERALS GET SOME MOJO BACK; TORY MAJORITY SLIPPING AWAY

[OTTAWA – September 30, 2008] – After a difficult start on the campaign trail, in the media and in the polls, the Liberal brand has begun to re-assert itself in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The race has tightened somewhat and the Conservatives have fallen back short of majority territory – something that many voters, especially in Ontario, seem to want.

“The race in Ontario began tightening markedly last week,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “Now the Liberals appear to be eking out a small lead.“

There is evidence of a “re-coil” impulse by some voters against the idea of a Conservative majority, particularly in Ontario, where almost a quarter of voters say they would reconsider their vote choice if they were sure the Tories were headed to majority. These “re-coil” voters are mostly now sitting with the Greens and the NDP, and if they started to move, the Liberals would be the principal beneficiaries by far.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party has re-asserted itself in Quebec in its traditional redoubts. The Liberals are now essentially level-pegging with the Conservatives, both well behind the Bloc Québécois. However, that may be enough for the Liberals to hold onto the seats they already have there, and potentially make small gains.

In Atlantic Canada, too, the Liberals are once again competitive.

In most of Western Canada, however, the Liberal Party continues to languish in third place, though the Greens no longer threaten to eclipse them in British Columbia as seemed possible just ten days ago.

“The Liberals’ gains, though modest, are significant, because they maintain their lead nationally over the third place NDP, who are running well by historic standards,” said Graves. “Meanwhile the gap between the Liberals and the first-place Conservatives has begun to narrow, though not enough to make them a serious threat to Conservative victory.”

The Liberals seem to be drawing some of this recent support from wayward Liberals, who had moved into the Green camp in the second week of the campaign, or were sitting on the sidelines as undecideds, and have now plunged back in behind the Liberals.

“It is worth noting that the Liberal Party, even with these first signs of resilience, is still tracking at historic lows,” said Graves. “However, after weakening dramatically in the weeks before and after the election was called, Liberal support plateaued, and has now begun a gentle drift into more familiar territory. Whether this can be sustained may turn on Stéphane Dion’s debate performance and the capacity of the Liberal ground campaign in the remaining weeks of the campaign.”


BQ: 9% (-1)
Cons: 34% (NC)
Greens: 10% (NC)
Libs: 27% (+1)
NDP: 19% (-1)

--------------------

Harris-Decima says:

BQ: 9% (+1)
Cons: 36% (NC)
Greens: 11% (+2)
Libs: 26% (NC)
NDP: 18% (-1)

• In Ontario, the Conservatives have 37%, Liberals 31%, NDP 17% and the Greens 14%.

• In Quebec, the BQ stands at 37%, the Conservatives follow with 27%, the Liberals at 18%, the NDP 12% and the Greens at 5%.

• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have 40%, the NDP 31%, the Conservatives 23% and the Green Party 4%.

• In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 36%, followed by the Liberals with 23%, the NDP with 22%, and the Greens with 18%.


--------------------

Nanos says:

BQ: 10% (-1)
Cons: 37% (+1)
Greens: 8% (-1)
Libs: 26% (NC)
NDP: 20% (NC)


--------------------

Given the margins for error there are no statistically significant changes anywhere. There are 13½ campaigning days left. While a week may, indeed, be a long time in politics, we have less than two of them left for:

• The Conservatives to get a good, solid 39+% of the popular vote (+3) – if they are going to have a majority;

• The Liberals to get up to a good, solid 30+% (+4) - if they want to deny the Conservatives that majority and prevent the NDP from eating their (Liberals) breakfast; and

• The NDP to get to a good, solid 22+% (+3), all at the Liberals’ expense - if they want to Jack and Olivia to sleep in Stornoway.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Today we saw a severe weakness in Stephen Harper’s system: the Liberals hit a home run on the ‘plagiarism’ issue.

Now, it is not a ‘foreign’ issue: Celine Stéphane plagiarized much of the Green Plan from David Suzuki; he got caught and, within 24 hours he had apologized and properly attributed the material. The press made nothing of it.

Bob Rae, a very effective communicator, played the Iraq speech plagiarism for all it is worth all day on every TV screen in sight. He got a very sympathetic hearing from TV hosts who thoroughly detest Harper for his vendetta against the media. Some media types promised a payback – it’s being delivered.

One of the reasons this got so much ‘free’ time was that Harper’s team, with its emphasis on control, Control, CONTROL was slow to react (the grownups are all busy preparing for the debates) and then refused to apologize, quickly.

Everyone, even the most anti-Harper media admit that no-one (not Harper, not Dion, not Chrétien) writes their own speeches – but they do have to ‘own’ them, once made. So it doesn’t matter if the speechwriter has resigned; it was Harper’s speech; he has to ‘explain’ it. Unlike Dion’s misuse of Suzuki’s words, the copying of Howard’s speech cannot be easily undone. It was something in which Harper took some considerable pride; he has to wear it, publicly (none of the Becket’s hair shirt stuff) – as gracefully as possible – and get it behind him because the media are really, really, really having fun with this.

Gotcha!


Edit: added a link to the report of the Green Shaft Shift plagiarism issue.

 

[GAP]

CBC is positively ecstatic....

 

[Edward Campbell]

Harper has one day to ‘craft’ his story. The French debate is tomorrow night and the English debate is on Thursday. He will get hammered with the plagiarism charge – again and again.

I hope someone on his staff took a junior NCO course and remembers that, when one screws up, one:

1. Takes responsibility – takes ownership of the issue as some political types like to say – admits the error;

2. Figures out – in a debate explains – how one will avoid making the same (or similar) mistake again; and

3. Get on with the work at hand, having learned from one’s mistake - in a debate turn the topic back to the economy.

This issues hurts his reputation for leadership and honesty. Harper is going to have to face this issue, squarely, and deal with it in a way that mollifies Canadians and defangs the media vipers.

 

[Rodahn]

Harper has one day to ‘craft’ his story. The French debate is tomorrow night and the English debate is on Thursday. He will get hammered with the plagiarism charge – again and again.

I hope someone on his staff took a junior NCO course and remembers that, when one screws up, one:

1. Takes responsibility – takes ownership of the issue as some political types like to say – admits the error;

2. Figures out – in a debate explains – how one will avoid making the same (or similar) mistake again; and

3. Get on with the work at hand, having learned from one’s mistake - in a debate turn the topic back to the economy.

This issues hurts his reputation for leadership and honesty. Harper is going to have to face this issue, squarely, and deal with it in a way that mollifies Canadians and defangs the media vipers.

I agree, but at the same time I wonder if the CPC spin doctors (through the Prime Minister) have requested that the debate format be changed to a one hour segment on the economy to try and avoid the issue.

Edited to add the following link in reference to the above speech issue, with the speech writer and spokesman quitting.

http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News/NationalNewsArticle.htm?src=n093091A.xml

 

[Edward Campbell]

I agree, but at the same time I wonder if the CPC spin doctors (through the Prime Minister) have requested that the debate format be changed to a one hour segment on the economy to try and avoid the issue.

Edited to add the following link in reference to the above speech issue, with the speech writer and spokesman quitting.

http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News/NationalNewsArticle.htm?src=n093091A.xml

The Consortium has has gone some way towards meeting Harper's request. From a purely partisan (Conservative) POV the change benefits Harper's campaign.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site, is another poll story:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080930.welxnpoll01/BNStory/politics/home

Harper majority a concern to more than half of Canadians

BRIAN LAGHI

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
September 30, 2008 at 8:42 PM EDT

More than half of Canadian voters say they're worried about the thought of giving Stephen Harper a majority government, but most wouldn't change their vote to prevent it.

The results are found in a new Globe and Mail/CTV News poll by The Strategic Counsel, which finds that 52 per cent of Canadians surveyed are anxious about a majority Conservative government. When asked whether they would consider changing their vote if it appeared the Conservatives were going to form the majority, only 16 per cent replied in the affirmative, with 81 per cent saying they would stick with their original intentions. The rest didn't know.

“The majority of Canadians are worried about the prospect of a Harper majority, but not enough to do anything about it,” said Peter Donolo, a partner with the company. “It speaks to the lack of inspiration they feel about their other choices.”

Among supporters of the Liberals, New Democrats and Greens, 76 per cent said they would not alter their vote if they thought a Conservative majority was coming, while 78 per cent of Bloc Québécois voters said they would stick with their party of choice.


The poll of 1,000 Canadians comes just two weeks before voting day and on the eve of the first leaders' debate. It demonstrates that, although the Conservatives hold a solid lead over the second-place Liberals, they have only modestly increased their polling support since the last election.

According to the survey, 39 per cent of Canadians would vote Tory if the election were held today – up three points from the 2006 election, while the number favouring the Liberals has dropped six percentage points to 24 per cent. The NDP have remained virtually static, climbing one point to 19, while the Greens are up four points. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has worked its way back into a substantial lead, with 45 per cent of the vote, 21 points better than the Tories at 24 per cent.

The BQ's new strength is significant because it catapults the party into a fight with the Liberals for title of official opposition, said Mr. Donolo. Because the Bloc's support is all in Quebec, it could win 50 seats or more. That could be enough for second place, depending on how low the Liberals go.

“The Bloc is back big-time here in the race,” said Mr. Donolo.

By the same token, although the NDP is widely viewed to have run a solid campaign, its votes are so dispersed that Jack Layton's party is not yet a significant threat to become the official opposition.

The poll finds that the NDP is the second choice of a whopping 39 per cent of Liberals and 28 per cent of BQ backers. But it also shows a reduction in the number of Canadians willing to change their voting preference. While 36 per cent of Canadians felt that way the week before the election was called, only 28 per cent would switch today.

Meanwhile, it appears that Mr. Harper's party has become the beneficiary of increased anxiety over the economy.

The survey says that 41 per cent of respondents believe the Conservatives are best able to handle the negative consequences of the U.S. financial crisis, compared to 23 per cent who pick the Grits.

Moreover, 32 per cent of Canadians think the Conservatives care most about the economy of their province, compared to 20 per cent for the Liberals and 15 per cent for the NDP. The gap is maintained in Ontario, where 39 per cent pick the Conservatives, compared to 26 per cent for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the NDP.

“With the rising concern about the economy, the Tories will be able to win over business Liberals, the Martin Liberals,” said Greg Lyle, a pollster with Innovative Research Group Inc. “That sets up big problems in the areas around Toronto.”

While Mr. Harper is perceived to have done well on his heartland issue, the economy, the same does not appear to be true of Liberal leader Stéphane Dion with the environment. When asked which party is best able to deal with that issue, 19 per cent say the Liberals, compared to 17 per cent who cite the Tories. The Greens get the highest marks, at 28 per cent.

And on the matter of which party would form the best cabinet, 38 per cent said the Tories compared to 22 per cent for the Liberals. Mr. Dion's team, which includes former leadership rivals Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae, as well as a number of former government ministers, has become increasingly prominent in the party's campaign of late.

The poll was conducted Sept. 28th-29th and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 95 per cent of the time.

The plagiarism fiasco is liable to give Canadians even more cause to worry about a Harper majority – it goes to his honesty. He needs to be trustworthy and competent; his image is tarnished. He has 13 days to polish his image.

 

[GAP]

The plagiarism fiasco is liable to give Canadians even more cause to worry about a Harper majority – it goes to his honesty. He needs to be trustworthy and competent; his image is tarnished. He has 13 days to polish his image.

If he handles it right, it will be a one day burp....the French debate will overtake the issue, Bernier's girlfriend is doing an interview on Thursday (a LOT of Quebecers are waiting for that one), people are concerned what will happen in the US, and this plagiarism fiasco  has a due date of 2003.....

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The plagiarism fiasco is liable to give Canadians even more cause to worry about a Harper majority – it goes to his honesty. He needs to be trustworthy and competent; his image is tarnished. He has 13 days to polish his image.

I don't think his image is damaged in the West, they can look past what the liberals are saying and don't really pay them much heed. The die is cast out there. For Ontario, I think having Rae lead the charge in all the smear campaigns about Harper, will have a negative effect. Too many here still despise him, for his time as Premier, to give him much credence. He's seen as an economically incompetent opportunist. If Dion is losing votes in Ontario, Bob Rae is not helping. He's hated here, probably, more than Dion himself. So far all the things he's throw and tried to make a big issue of, have amounted to farts in the wind. I don't think anyone can predict Quebec as the polls seldom tell the true story there. I can't read the Maritimes, but i don't think Danny Williams has got as much grass roots backing as he thinks he does for his campaign of disinformation.

I'm not following the polls on any of this, just my gut and listening to people here at home. That's all my opinion is based on. ;D