The Arctic

[Kirkhill]

The changing Arctic

https://phys.org/news/2026-02-satellite-boreal-forests-shifted-north.html

I am going to guess that also means more muskeg.

 

[lenaitch]

The changing Arctic

https://phys.org/news/2026-02-satellite-boreal-forests-shifted-north.html

I am going to guess that also means more muskeg.

It probably means that the permafrost line is moving north. A lot of permafrost ground is already technically muskeg - just frozen. The creation of muskeg/bog/peatland takes centuries.

 

[Kirkhill]

It probably means that the permafrost line is moving north. A lot of permafrost ground is already technically muskeg - just frozen. The creation of muskeg/bog/peatland takes centuries.

Lots of submerged, picled and frozen mammoths and mastodons.

And the ground will be more difficult to ride on and walk over. More tracks and flying things.

And maybe some more navigable rivers and lakes? Railways are going to need to be elevated for more of their length I would think.

....

That Churchill railway, in 1912 it was the next big thing. The line to Prince Rupert was almost finished. It opened in 1914. The RNWMP had already set up operations at both Churchill and York Factory adjacent to Port Nelson and esablished M Division as their Hudson Bay Division. Those ports were still going concerns up until 1957 when the HBC closed its York Factory operations.

Just took a look at some costings. looking for @Humphrey Bogart to comment

Vancouver Sky Train Track - standard gauge - 375-400 MCAD / km
UK HS2 - 200 MUSD / km
Europe - 25-39 MUSD / km
US/Australia - 20-70 MUSD / km
Indonesia - 52 MUSD / km

These projects are often associated with urban environments and that tends to drive prices up.

Freight or regional rail is on the order of 1-2 MUSD / km assuming good ground.



Viaducts are given as typically costing 30 MUSD / km



Pipelines typically cost 1-5 MUSD / km
The TMX expansion, with its highly contentious and heavily urbanized termination, cost 35 MCAD / km on average.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Prince Rupert was knee capped by the loss of Charles Hays when the Titanic sank, taking him and his capital with him. I suspect that ship going down cost the Canadian economy dearly.

 

[lenaitch]

That Churchill railway, in 1912 it was the next big thing. The line to Prince Rupert was almost finished. It opened in 1914. The RNWMP had already set up operations at both Churchill and York Factory adjacent to Port Nelson and esablished M Division as their Hudson Bay Division. Those ports were still going concerns up until 1957 when the HBC closed its York Factory operations.

HBC might have operated York Factory (near the mouth of the Hayes River) until 1957 but steel was never laid to Port Nelson (near the mouth of the Nelson river, 18 Euclidian km north). Port Nelson never operated.

 

[FJAG]

Prince Rupert was knee capped by the loss of Charles Hays when the Titanic sank, taking him and his capital with him. I suspect that ship going down cost the Canadian economy dearly.

Funny. I never knew he died on the Titanic.

Certainly a visionary but quite controversial. It was a time that was leading to the 20th Century being Canada's century - a promise that slowly withered away (or was frittered away) after WW2.

 

[Kirkhill]

HBC might have operated York Factory (near the mouth of the Hayes River) until 1957 but steel was never laid to Port Nelson (near the mouth of the Nelson river, 18 Euclidian km north). Port Nelson never operated.

Correct. But that was primarily because WW1 intervened and disrupted pre-WW1 plans based on the National Policy and membership in the British Empire Trade Zone.

Post WW1 Britain and its empire were different, Canada was different and America ... was richer and more boisterous. WW2 cemented those changes.

In many ways, exclusive of the British Empire, I see the current reset as a reversion to the trading environment before 1914.

And I see Canada's security system in much the same light.

Britain had been making it clear since 1871 that Canada was on its own and could expect no help against the Yanks. A fact solidified in 1905-06 with the withdrawal from Halifax and Esquimalt.

It is fascinating reviewing the defence plans for the era through the lens of the Militia Lists.

A nation of 8 million accepting 400,000 immigrants a year from all over with different cultural norms, brand new technologies in the form of railways, electricity, telegraphs and telephones, internal combustion engines, cars and flying machines .... and hostilish frenemy south of the border blowing hot and cold on free trade and very assertive of its Monroe Doctrine backed by its Big Stick, the Great White Fleet and willing to do anything to secure the Panama Canal and impose its suzerainty over Latin America while militarily defending a porous border with a restive revolutionary Mexico.

The 20th Century never happened.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Then there's the elephant in the hydrographic survey room

My latest article “Canadian Arctic Hydrography: Proceed with Alacrity” has just been published in the Canadian Naval Review (Volume 21, Number 3, 2026). With its percentage surveyed to a standard adequate for safe navigation standing at a paltry 15.8%, the waters of the Canadian Arctic are woefully inadequate for submarine operations. As Canada pursues a fleet of new submarines with particular emphasis on defence and security in the Arctic region, it is imperative that this deficiency be addressed. My article suggests dedicating significant hydrographic survey capability to the task and considers bringing the Canadian Hydrographic Service to join the Canadian Coast Guard under the umbrella of the Department of National Defence.

My latest article “Canadian Arctic Hydrography: Proceed with Alacrity” has just been published in the Canadian Naval Review (Volume 21, Number 3, 2026). With its percentage surveyed to a standard… | Tom Tulloch

My latest article “Canadian Arctic Hydrography: Proceed with Alacrity” has just been published in the Canadian Naval Review (Volume 21, Number 3, 2026). With its percentage surveyed to a standard adequate for safe navigation standing at a paltry 15.8%, the waters of the Canadian Arctic are...

www.linkedin.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Then there's the elephant in the hydrographic survey room

My latest article “Canadian Arctic Hydrography: Proceed with Alacrity” has just been published in the Canadian Naval Review (Volume 21, Number 3, 2026). With its percentage surveyed to a standard adequate for safe navigation standing at a paltry 15.8%, the waters of the Canadian Arctic are woefully inadequate for submarine operations. As Canada pursues a fleet of new submarines with particular emphasis on defence and security in the Arctic region, it is imperative that this deficiency be addressed. My article suggests dedicating significant hydrographic survey capability to the task and considers bringing the Canadian Hydrographic Service to join the Canadian Coast Guard under the umbrella of the Department of National Defence.

My latest article “Canadian Arctic Hydrography: Proceed with Alacrity” has just been published in the Canadian Naval Review (Volume 21, Number 3, 2026). With its percentage surveyed to a standard… | Tom Tulloch

My latest article “Canadian Arctic Hydrography: Proceed with Alacrity” has just been published in the Canadian Naval Review (Volume 21, Number 3, 2026). With its percentage surveyed to a standard adequate for safe navigation standing at a paltry 15.8%, the waters of the Canadian Arctic are...

www.linkedin.com

Further to that and my last

1905 Denmark and Norway split the sheets. The US started pressurind Denmark to give up its islands in the Americas, Norway's Amundsen, Britain's Scott and America's Peary were racing around our arctic trying to map, or in the vernacular of the day, discover, it. Politicians in Toronto, Quebec and Winnipeg were trying to figure out what to do with the northern lands and people that the 1912 border changes had dumped in their lap, and developers were running all over the place looking for copper, iron, oil and gas as well as hydro sites to supply this new economy.

And a war was in the offing....

As I said the 20th Century might never have happened..

Even the Mohammedan world looked pretty much as it does. Settled Turks, Persians and Indonesians facing off against each other and nomadic Arabs, Berbers and Bedu across uncertain borders afflicted with slavery and Sharia law.

 

[Kirkhill]

Saudi gave up slavery under duress in 1962.

Mauritania didn't outlaw slavery until 1981 but didn't criminalize it until 2007. The fight continues.

....

Cannibalism, not a Muslim practice but associated with traditional societies in The Arc of Instability, was not finally discontinued until the 1960s although, as with slavery, the fight continues.

 

[lenaitch]

Correct. But that was primarily because WW1 intervened and disrupted pre-WW1 plans based on the National Policy and membership in the British Empire Trade Zone.

WWI halted construction around present day Gillam, and national restructuring of all railways except CP because of their collective insolvency delayed further construction until 1925. Sometime in the intervening years, probably a result of better surveying, they came to the realization that the mouth of the Nelson River was unsuitable as a harbour due to silting, shallowness and currents and switch to Churchill. Although further away, it had a naturally deep (ish) habour and somewhat less sailing time.

If they had stayed at Port Nelson, I suspect the whole concept of a blue water port and railway would have died a natural death in a few years, simply because of the cost to maintain navigation.

 

[Kirkhill]

WWI halted construction around present day Gillam, and national restructuring of all railways except CP because of their collective insolvency delayed further construction until 1925. Sometime in the intervening years, probably a result of better surveying, they came to the realization that the mouth of the Nelson River was unsuitable as a harbour due to silting, shallowness and currents and switch to Churchill. Although further away, it had a naturally deep (ish) habour and somewhat less sailing time.

If they had stayed at Port Nelson, I suspect the whole concept of a blue water port and railway would have died a natural death in a few years, simply because of the cost to maintain navigation.

Possibly.

But there was local economic and political pressure in support of the enterprise.

 

[Kirkhill]

WWI halted construction around present day Gillam, and national restructuring of all railways except CP because of their collective insolvency delayed further construction until 1925. Sometime in the intervening years, probably a result of better surveying, they came to the realization that the mouth of the Nelson River was unsuitable as a harbour due to silting, shallowness and currents and switch to Churchill. Although further away, it had a naturally deep (ish) habour and somewhat less sailing time.

If they had stayed at Port Nelson, I suspect the whole concept of a blue water port and railway would have died a natural death in a few years, simply because of the cost to maintain navigation.

Got me to thinking

Medium to large freighters of the era drew up to 9 meters with DWT of 5 to 10,000.
Trampers and Panama freighters drew in the 6 to 8 meter range.


Apparently the HBC bought Scott's Antarctic vessel The Discovery in 1905 for cargo service to the Bay
She drew about 6 meters (20 ft), was 172 ft long and displaced 1570 tonnes.

Fort McPherson - 58 ft Auxiliiary Motor Schooner with a 50 ton capacity - for local distribution in the Arctic
Fort York - 74 ft Auxilliary Motor Schooner with a 70 ton capacity that drew about 10 ft or 3 meters

1931 saw the sister ships Farnworth and Warkworth do a couple of experimental runs into Churchill after the rail line was complete.
Farnworth is recorded as loading 277,000 bushels of wheat, that is about 7500 tonnes.

All of which sounds like small beer, but it is comparable to the shipping of the era.
Other ports started with small ships and then modified themselves to accomodate the traffic.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Then there's the elephant in the hydrographic survey room

My latest article “Canadian Arctic Hydrography: Proceed with Alacrity” has just been published in the Canadian Naval Review (Volume 21, Number 3, 2026). With its percentage surveyed to a standard adequate for safe navigation standing at a paltry 15.8%, the waters of the Canadian Arctic are woefully inadequate for submarine operations. As Canada pursues a fleet of new submarines with particular emphasis on defence and security in the Arctic region, it is imperative that this deficiency be addressed. My article suggests dedicating significant hydrographic survey capability to the task and considers bringing the Canadian Hydrographic Service to join the Canadian Coast Guard under the umbrella of the Department of National Defence.

My latest article “Canadian Arctic Hydrography: Proceed with Alacrity” has just been published in the Canadian Naval Review (Volume 21, Number 3, 2026). With its percentage surveyed to a standard… | Tom Tulloch

My latest article “Canadian Arctic Hydrography: Proceed with Alacrity” has just been published in the Canadian Naval Review (Volume 21, Number 3, 2026). With its percentage surveyed to a standard adequate for safe navigation standing at a paltry 15.8%, the waters of the Canadian Arctic are...

www.linkedin.com

For small waterways

For deeper and larger

 

[Kirkhill]

"...In remote and northern communities, where food insecurity rates are among the highest in the country, those weaknesses are magnified.

"Meanwhile, Canada is expanding economic and strategic activity in the North. Federal frameworks emphasize Arctic sovereignty, critical minerals, energy corridors, ports and defence infrastructure. Over the coming decades, more Canadians will live and work in regions that depend on complex and expensive supply lines for necessities, including fresh food.

"Food security cannot remain peripheral to that conversation."

"Most imported produce arrives efficiently along Canada’s southern border. But as food moves north through long supply chains, costs increase, spoilage risk rises and reliability declines. "

Opinion: Alberta can lead Canada’s food sovereignty strategy

Opinion: Alberta can lead Canada’s food sovereignty strategy

calgaryherald.com

Anything is possible, if cash.

Is our development of the north worth the subsidy? And would it be permanent? Or would it be like the early investment in the Alberta oil and gas industry?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Greenhouses in the Arctic, also means steady jobs, along with more local food. More paychecks in the area, means more disposable income and then people open businesses to serve that disposable income.

Better docks and airports, mean food is handled faster, more efficiently with less spoilage and loss. More docks means that the same number of ships might be able to make 2 supply voyages or more, if loading and unloading is made faster and cheaper.

 

[Good2Golf]

A look at how others are preparing for Arctic ops. UK SF’s take on things.

 

[KevinB]

LampreyMMAUV™

The LampreyMMAUV™ multi-mission autonomous undersea vehicle is a new class of smart, stealthy, do-it-all submersibles built to disrupt and deny enemy ...

www.lockheedmartin.com

Just saying

 

[GR66]

Part of the new Arctic strategy is the development of Northern Operational Support Hubs/Nodes (NOSH/NOSN).

Northern Operational Support Hubs enables the projection and sustainment of military forces in the Arctic

The defence of Canada and assertion of sovereignty are high priorities of the Government of Canada, and the Arctic and northern regions are seen as being vital to both.

www.canada.ca

Minister Blair announces First Northern Operational Support Hub locations - Canada.ca

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, announced Iqaluit, Inuvik, and Yellowknife as Northern Operational Support Hub locations.

www.canada.ca

The defence of Canada and assertion of sovereignty are high priorities of the Government of Canada, and the Arctic and northern regions are seen as being vital to both. This is why a network of Northern Operational Support Hubs (NOSH) is being established to enable greater CAF presence and responsiveness across northern regions through the provision of infrastructure and logistical support.

The NOSH Program is a major infrastructure enterprise projected to take 10 to 20 years to complete at a cost of $2.67 billion. At full operational capability (FOC) it will form a dispersed network of logistical stations comprised of several principal NOSH sites and secondary Northern Operational Support Nodes (NOSN) connected by one or more transportation spokes.

“These sites will be either purpose-built or may utilize repurposed infrastructure where available.” said Mr. Jean-Marc Doucet, NOSH Program Director. “Where feasible, NOSH sites will also be able to support other federal departments and agencies operating in the region, as well as territorial, provincial, and municipal governments as part of a whole-of-government approach to ensuring a safe, secure, and well-defended Arctic and northern Canada.”

Sites designated as NOSN may be permanent or relocatable. At a minimum, NOSN sites will be capable of acting as a forward operating base (FOB) to a sub-unit-sized Joint Task Force (JTF) or detached element for a minimum of 30 days.

“Categorization of each site as either a NOSH or NOSN will be based upon the inherent operational support capacity, the capabilities and capacity of key enabling civilian infrastructure in proximity to each site, and the potential availability of commercial support and service solutions,” said LCol Rob Thompson, NOSH Sustainment Plans Officer.

The NOSH team is currently focused on engagements with Indigenous partners and northern communities, regional governments, and federal departments and agencies operating in the region to determine where shared aims exist with CAF operational requirements. The siting process is expected to start fall/winter 2025 which will entail site visits, environmental assessments, and regulation review — steps necessary before construction or repurposing of existing infrastructure can commence. Other sites will be identified once all military requirements have been determined.

Supporting CAF operations is the priority of NOSH, but with the aim of providing lasting benefit to the communities in which it maintains a physical presence. Primary benefits realized through NOSH investment in dual-use capabilities will be both operationally essential and offer enduring community utility, such as airports, seaports, medical capacity, and alternative power generation being areas for consideration.

“DND/CAF has a role to play in whole-of-society emergency preparedness while delivering on our core mission to defend Canada, including the Arctic and northern regions in partnership with NORAD, NATO, and other international allies and assisting in the safety of Canadian citizens through the provision of support during domestic disasters or major emergencies, and through the conduct of Search and Rescue (SAR) operations,” said LCol Thompson.

The establishment of NOSH and NOSN sites will, for the first time, provide a purposed matrix of operational support facilities across the Arctic and northern regions of Canada. This foundational backbone of operational support infrastructure will underpin the CAF’s ability to respond to crisis with increased speed and then sustain and support these operations for extended periods.

March 6, 2025 – Iqaluit, Nunavut – Department of National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, announced Iqaluit, Inuvik, and Yellowknife as Northern Operational Support Hub locations. These will increase the Canadian Armed Forces' presence and responsiveness across the Arctic and the North.

I can't help but see echos of the old Hudson Bay Company network in this plan. The NOSH sites being analogous to the HBC Forts/Factories and the NOSN sites being similar to the Posts/Depots. It worked then so I can't see why it shouldn't work now.

For the Node sites I wonder if rather than rotational postings to these austere locations you might instead adapt an all volunteer system for those that might enjoy this type of opportunity. The old HBC posts sometimes were staffed with only 1-3 men who acted not only as traders but as liaisons with the local communities, a source of emergency shelter/supplies, etc. Personnel could fill a similar role, not only maintaining the pre-positioned equipment and supplies but coordination with the local Ranger Patrol and other Government agencies, provide facilities for fly-in services (e.g. vaccinations, etc.) and emergencies, SAR assistance, etc.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Part of the new Arctic strategy is the development of Northern Operational Support Hubs/Nodes (NOSH/NOSN).

Northern Operational Support Hubs enables the projection and sustainment of military forces in the Arctic

The defence of Canada and assertion of sovereignty are high priorities of the Government of Canada, and the Arctic and northern regions are seen as being vital to both.

www.canada.ca

Minister Blair announces First Northern Operational Support Hub locations - Canada.ca

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, announced Iqaluit, Inuvik, and Yellowknife as Northern Operational Support Hub locations.

www.canada.ca

I can't help but see echos of the old Hudson Bay Company network in this plan. The NOSH sites being analogous to the HBC Forts/Factories and the NOSN sites being similar to the Posts/Depots. It worked then so I can't see why it shouldn't work now.

For the Node sites I wonder if rather than rotational postings to these austere locations you might instead adapt an all volunteer system for those that might enjoy this type of opportunity. The old HBC posts sometimes were staffed with only 1-3 men who acted not only as traders but as liaisons with the local communities, a source of emergency shelter/supplies, etc. Personnel could fill a similar role, not only maintaining the pre-positioned equipment and supplies but coordination with the local Ranger Patrol and other Government agencies, provide facilities for fly-in services (e.g. vaccinations, etc.) and emergencies, SAR assistance, etc.

Country-wives were an essential part of that HBC system in the early stages, not sure how well that concept would go over these days......