The Great Gun Control Debate- 2.0

[Journeyman]

Big city criminals like using handguns because ...

Excellent post.  Thank you.

 

[Rifleman62]

The legislation will be aimed at legal hand gun owners of course. Won't stop criminals.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-as-toronto-says-goodbye-to-shooting-victim-reese-fallon-trudeau-says/

As Toronto says goodbye to shooting victims, Trudeau says Ottawa will study handgun ban -30 Jul 18

Extract: He (Trudeau) said his government will study approaches to gun violence in other jurisdictions before deciding on a policy direction. “We’re taking a look at things that have been done around the world,” he told reporters at the Alexander the Great Parkette in Toronto’s grieving Danforth neighbourhood on Monday afternoon. “Things that have been done in other jurisdictions, looking at the best evidence, the best data to make the right decisions to make sure that we are ensuring that our citizens, our communities are safe into the future.”

Last week, a senior official told The Globe and Mail that Mr. Trudeau will decide in mid-August whether to pursue a ban on handguns as part of a new legislative agenda he would outline in a fall Throne Speech.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

“We’re taking a look at things that have been done around the world,”

That means taking the false stats from countries (Britain, Australia, etc.) that have full bans, and making Canada the same. No guns.

 

[Journeyman]

It depends on how you frame the interpretation: guns account for the most frequently used means vs guns account for the majority of murders.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics...

According to StatsCan, the consistently top three homicide methods are stabbing, shooting, and beating.

Raw Numbers:
Gun Deaths in Canada this Year:  357 gun deaths in Canada as of July 31, 2018 at 10:28:33
However, note that suicides are by far the leading form of gun death in Canada, outpacing homicides by about 4:1.

Suicide  77.16%
Homicide  19.29%
Unintentional  2.54%
Undetermined  1.01%

 

[Remius]

ok, I'm a little confused.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4355300/danforth-shooting-handgun-stolen-saskatchewan/

So the gun was stolen during a break and enter at a gun store in Saskatchawan but the gun may have been illegally obtained from the US?

Does anyone have any other info on this?

I can see this going two ways.  Handguns used in crimes are illegally obtained in almost all cases.  How they are obtained may shape the way the government reacts.  If theft from lawful gun owners/stores is the issue then they may go the ban route or use that as a justification.  if it comes across the border then the ban might no seem justified.

Either way I sense an overreaction. 

 

[Rifleman62]

Either way I sense an overreaction.

What would you expect?

 

[Journeyman]

That means taking the false stats from countries...

In what way are they false?

 

[Hafoc]

Long time reader first time poster. 

This thread caught my attention so I thought I would chime in.  I'm an Electrical Engineer, numbers and data are my speciality.

In what way are they false?

They are false in the sense they are cherry picking data.  You will notice they (Media etc.) use the term "Firearm related death rate" or something similar, not Homicide rates. This distinction is very important if one really cared about reducing homicides.  I did my own research on this subject using two studies from the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC) data for Firearms ownership rates per capita and the Intentional Homicide rate per capita.  When plotted there is ZERO correlation between firearms ownership rates and intentional homicide rates.  If anyone is interested I can dig through my archives to find the excel file.

As a counter example to the commonly presented narrative, take a look at the homicide rates in New Hampshire, which has some least restrictive firearm laws.  Then take that data and compare it to provinces in Canada.

-Hafoc

 

[Journeyman]

They are false in the sense they are cherry picking data.  You will notice they (Media etc.) use the term ….

Numbers, data, and perhaps  psychic abilities must be your speciality.

The government hasn't yet surveyed these other, unnamed countries, so I'm not predisposed to judge that 'they' (as in government, not media) are cherry-picking data or using dubiously vague language.  I do assume that their sources will be more credible than evil, tree-hugging media headlines from these countries though.

So while I don't claim it as a "specialty," I am predisposed to wait for the results to come in...or at least  know the questions being asked... before judging.


Welcome to the site.  :cheers:

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Numbers, data, and perhaps  psychic abilities must be your speciality.

The government hasn't yet surveyed these other, unnamed countries, so I'm not predisposed to judge that 'they' (as in government, not media) are cherry-picking data or using dubiously vague language.  I do assume that their sources will be more credible than evil, tree-hugging media headlines from these countries though.

So while I don't claim it as a "specialty," I am predisposed to wait for the results to come in...or at least  know the questions being asked... before judging.


Welcome to the site.  :cheers:

You aren't a firearms owner, are you?

I have learned to have low expectations around Truth and Statistical Correlation when it comes to the LPC and firearms policy in Canada.

 

[Journeyman]

You aren't a firearms owner, are you?

Response via PM

And while the current Prime Minister has reaped a significant amount of well-deserved skepticism, I don't feel a need to pre-emptively foam at the mouth and call everything I personally disagree with "fake news".... especially before anything actually happens.

:2c:

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Fair enough.

 

[Jarnhamar]

ok, I'm a little confused.

Me too. I've heard both accounts now and wonder where the final answer is with where did the gun come from.

It was apparently kept at the parents house, I say hit them with unlawful firearms storage.



So if there were 722 deaths caused by firearms this year so far, and 19.2% of them were cases of murder instead of suicide+murder then that's 138 deaths out of a population of 36'708'100.    Every preventable death is horrible but is 138 out of almost 37 million people an epidemic? And that's 138 shootings, not all handguns.


Is a gun ban about saving lives or could the driving factor here, insofar as the government is concerned, be about votes?

Is the government sitting around a table discussing what banning handguns will result in not in terms of how many people will be saved but the political fall out? The hardcore left and right have already made up their mind about votes, but what about people in the middle. Will a move like that make people want to vote for them for (presuming to) make streets just a bit safer, or will it upset them that the government is infringing on something many Canadians enjoy or don't have an issue with.

What would the government do? Tell hundreds of thousands of handgun owners that they need to turn in all their guns by a certain date or they'll be arrested?  Will the government buy back all those handguns? If an average pistol runs $1000 and there's that subjective number of 650'000 handguns in Canada is the government going to cut a check for 650 million dollars? Would they take the cheaper option and say gun owners can keep their handguns they just can't buy anymore or sell theirs so once they die they get destroyed.

That's a great way not to shell out any money but with 650'000 pistols still in civilian hands what about those 138 / (handgun deaths) per year?  Would gun store owners have to eat millions of dollars of product lost? Or will the government be buying those too?

 

[Jarnhamar]

American story but posting here to show how simple someone legally carrying a concealed handgun can save lives.

A concealed carry holder stopped a gunman on Saturday in Florida who opened fire on a back-to-school event where dozens of children were present.

Law enforcement officials say that the shooting happened at Isaac Campbell Park around 5 p.m. when a man "returned to the park after a fistfight and began firing," WFTV reported.

Once the gunman opened fire, an armed citizen, who was legally carrying, shot him. The gunman was reportedly taken to a nearby hospital after sustaining life-threatening injuries.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/34089/concealed-carry-holder-stops-shooting-school-event-ryan-saavedra?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=062316-news&utm_campaign=benshapiro

 

[ModlrMike]

Was this really published by the CBC?

Canada can't say where its crime guns are coming from

Governments, police not collecting national statistics on whether guns are smuggled or sourced domestically
Evan Dyer · CBC News · Posted: Aug 10, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 6 hours ago

"It is a fact that the majority of gun-related crimes in our communities are committed with guns that are domestically-sourced," RCMP Inspector Chris McBryan told the Vancouver Sun two years ago.

Insp. McBryan was speaking as head of the Western Canada division of the National Weapons Enforcement Support Team (NWEST) of the Canadian Firearms Program (CFP).

But when CBC News contacted the CFP and asked for the data behind his categorical statement, the RCMP replied that no such data exists.

[remainder at link]

 

[Jarnhamar]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/the-liberals-are-playing-dishonest-games-with-stats-to-crack-down-on-legal-gun-owners

According to Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale, Bill C-71 is a response to substantial increases in gun violence since 2013. It is legislation driven and justified by the empirical evidence. Or so it would seem.

In actuality, the statistical basis for Bill C-71 is particularly weak. Its reliance on faulty assumptions regarding crime and firearms breaks with the government’s promise of legislation tempered by “evidence-based decision making.”

Minister Goodale’s assertion that “gun homicides are up by two-thirds since 2013” should concern Canadians. After all, that’s quite an increase. But why select 2013 as the baseline for comparison?

2013 was a year of historical lows, a statistical outlier of sorts. According to Statistics Canada, 2013 had the lowest police-recorded crime rate since 1969. In fact, it had the lowest rate of criminal homicides in 50 years (1.45 per 100,000) as well as the lowest rate of fatal shootings ever recorded by Statistics Canada (0.38 per 100,000).

Patrick Deegan, a senior range officer, displays long guns at a gun store in Calgary in 2010.

By selecting a year of record lows, marginal increases in succeeding years are made to look like significant surges. This explains Minister Goodale’s decision to use four years (2013 to 2016) of crime data instead of the standard five. Selecting 2012 as the point of comparison would weaken the perception that gun violence had increased precipitously.

In truth, gun homicides have not exploded. They have regressed to normal levels prior to 2013. In fact, Canada’s crime rate has steadily declined since the 1990s.

A handgun ban will still be low hanging election fruit starving liberals will be grasping for.

 

[Halifax Tar]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/the-liberals-are-playing-dishonest-games-with-stats-to-crack-down-on-legal-gun-owners

A handgun ban will still be low hanging election fruit starving liberals will be grasping for.

No doubt at all.  This and Carbon Tax could be 2 big election issues.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Response via PM

And while the current Prime Minister has reaped a significant amount of well-deserved skepticism, I don't feel a need to pre-emptively foam at the mouth and call everything I personally disagree with "fake news".... especially before anything actually happens.

:2c:

When it comes to legal firearms, the Liberals have a long history of being untrustworthy and for targeting gun owners for political gain. 

 

[Fishbone Jones]

When it comes to legal firearms, the Liberals have a long history of being untrustworthy and for targeting gun owners for political gain.

True. And if handguns increased votes, they'd be handing them out on the street corner.

Likely at Jane and Finch.

Let's not forget, one of the first goals of a socialist government is to disarm the population to give the government a position of strength over the populous.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It's demographics like this that scares the Libs, once gun owners reach a certain point, it will be politically toxic to go after them and unlike the early 90's gun owners are connected and internet savy. Not to mention a rapid increase in gun ownership by wealthy ethnic groups like the Chinese. https://thegunblog.ca/2018/08/15/gun-licences-rise-to-record-in-june-after-21-quarterly-increases/