The Great Gun Control Debate- 2.0

[Fishbone Jones]

Which is why I'm surprised they didnt propose a national ban. They've threatened it in the past and it would appeal to their urban supporters and rhe antis in a big way.

The current offer to buy the OIC guns from owners will cost over a billion. The amount of handguns in private hands will cost the taxpayer quite a respectable bit more than that.

 

[Jarnhamar]

If that OIC is removed I'm going to have a hell of a time putting some guns back together so I'm not just handing in receivers lol

 

[Haggis]

The current offer to buy the OIC guns from owners will cost over a billion.

You are naively assuming that true fair market value will be paid. You are also assuming that the amount paid out will not be partially recovered through making it a taxable benefit.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

You are naively assuming that true fair market value will be paid. You are also assuming that the amount paid out will not be partially recovered through making it a taxable benefit.

I'm assuming nothing. Estimates are all over the map. Just going by their long gun registration estimate that were grossly underestimated. All I'm saying is that their estimate for the OIC gun payout is likely wrong, on the low end. In comparison to stealing every handgun in Canada, which is over a million, the cost to taxpayers will be extensively higher. If they buy them. Of course, we know that with the trudeau government, blatant theft with no return is always a real possibility. With the OIC AND a handgun ban, I stand to lose a highly substantial monetary sum in firearms and ancillary equipment, that would make the amount of tax on my government return laughable.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I'm assuming nothing. Estimates are all over the map. Just going by their long gun registration estimate that were grossly underestimated. All I'm saying is that their estimate for the OIC gun payout is likely wrong, on the low end. In comparison to stealing every handgun in Canada, which is over a million, the cost to taxpayers will be extensively higher. If they buy them. Of course, we know that with the trudeau government, blatant theft with no return is always a real possibility. With the OIC AND a handgun ban, I stand to lose a highly substantial monetary sum in firearms and ancillary equipment, that would make the amount of tax on my government return laughable.

I predict a sudden rise in boating accidents where firearms are "lost to sea" lol

 

[Haggis]

Followed by lots of magnet fishing by IBM subcontractors to recover those "lost to sea" firearms.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I'm assuming nothing. Estimates are all over the map. Just going by their long gun registration estimate that were grossly underestimated. All I'm saying is that their estimate for the OIC gun payout is likely wrong, on the low end. In comparison to stealing every handgun in Canada, which is over a million, the cost to taxpayers will be extensively higher. If they buy them. Of course, we know that with the trudeau government, blatant theft with no return is always a real possibility. With the OIC AND a handgun ban, I stand to lose a highly substantial monetary sum in firearms and ancillary equipment, that would make the amount of tax on my government return laughable.

The estimates I have seen on legal guns, made or imported into Canada range from 17 million to 33 million. A lot of those will be .303's and .22cals

 

[brihard]

Oh, I know he doesn't. But they do to the various courts in every province.

Say Montreal, at the behest of the Federal Libs, adopts a hand gun ban and someone is arrested under it. They go to court and the defence lawyer defends on the basis that the by-law is null and void as being outside the powers of Montreal to adopt because neither their Charter nor the provincial municipal act applicable provides for the power to adopt such by-law and the Federal enabling legislation is also null as a constitutional infringement in provincial constitutional powers. I am willing to bet the courts are much much more likely to come down on the side of the defence because the number of cases where the Supreme court confirmed municipal law as being a provincial jurisdiction is simply overwhelming. On the other hand, if the Feds try to argue that it is part of their criminal law power, then the court can say: "Fine, then don't delegate it illegally to the municipalities or the provinces. Exercise your own powers yourself." Same result.

This came up earlier in this thread. I’m curious, why do you believe the prior jurisprudence in Russell v The Queen, and Canadian Temperance Federation v Ontario wouldn’t apply? The feds sidestepped the provinces entirely and succesfully on that one, devolving a criminal law power to the municipalities. I don’t see anything enshrined constitutionally since that would prevent them doing it again.

The Great Gun Control Debate- 2.0

Exactly. The PM has said that he will pursue further measures once Parliament is back sitting again and the pandemic has eased or passed. The votes on the the buyback spending bill and the amendments to the Firearms Act will be whipped, of course, and the NDP and Bloc will probably support...

army.ca

 

[brihard]

Aaaand O’Toole just announced he’ll keep the 2020 restrictions in place, relying on his promised review of the firearms act to achieve any future policy changes.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/gun-control-wedge-issue-1.6165532

 

[MilEME09]

Smart move in a way, he is trying to prevent wedge issues in the 905.

 

[brihard]

Smart move in a way, he is trying to prevent wedge issues in the 905.

Yes. This could have been the wedge that killed his chances at election. He can’t do anything if he isn’t elected.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The PPC supporters hate O'Toole more than they hate JT. I get that they are displeased with the CPC, but getting rid of JT and company would seem to be the bigger goal for the moment and then build up your party after a CPC win.

 

[brihard]

The PPC supporters hate O'Toole more than they hate JT. I get that they are displeased with the CPC, but getting rid of JT and company would seem to be the bigger goal for the moment and then build up your party after a CPC win.

Yes and no. A succesful CPC government would likely be the death knell for the PPC’s chances at relevance. They’re already unlikely to get any seats unless Bernier maybe takes Beauce. Conversely, if the CPC fail to form government, PPC will likely continue to draw support, and will be able to scream and rant about the Liberals for a few more years.

PPC will never form government or hold the balance of power. Splitting themselves off from the CPC basically just dooms them to ceding whatever limited clout their wing of the Conservatives held in a potential future government anyway.

The only hope for gun owners to expand their privileges is with the CPC, however they’ll have to accept the reality that electability will remain a limitation.

 

[Haggis]

Yes. This could have been the wedge that killed his chances at election. He can’t do anything if he isn’t elected.

His proposed simplified classification system would be a godsend for owners, dealers and LE alike. No more having to call a verifier or the CFP/CFO to determine if X is in category Y.

However, once some bureaucrats realize that by tweaking the simplified classification system they can get a tick in the "leading change" bubble of their PMA, it's all over.

 

[Remius]

His proposed simplified classification system would be a godsend for owners, dealers and LE alike. No more having to call a verifier or the CFP/CFO to determine if X is in category Y.

However, once some bureaucrats realize that by tweaking the simplified classification system they can get a tick in the "leading change" bubble of their PMA, it's all over.

The other thing is bureaucrats that may be inclined to politicize the process may just delay or slow the changes enough until a new government is elected.

 

[Remius]

Yes and no. A succesful CPC government would likely be the death knell for the PPC’s chances at relevance. They’re already unlikely to get any seats unless Bernier maybe takes Beauce. Conversely, if the CPC fail to form government, PPC will likely continue to draw support, and will be able to scream and rant about the Liberals for a few more years.

PPC will never form government or hold the balance of power. Splitting themselves off from the CPC basically just dooms them to ceding whatever limited clout their wing of the Conservatives held in a potential future government anyway.

The only hope for gun owners to expand their privileges is with the CPC, however they’ll have to accept the reality that electability will remain a limitation.

Agreed. But I think if the CPC wins convincingly it may also spell the end of the more extreme SoCon element of the CPC. The big tent may be getting smaller as the CPC move to appeal to centrists.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The estimates I have seen on legal guns, made or imported into Canada range from 17 million to 33 million. A lot of those will be .303's and .22cals

I was speaking of handguns. Not rifles. I have no idea where you're going with this.

Canada Gun Facts and Stats | TheGunBlog.ca

Canada Gun Facts and Stats answers your questions: How to buy a gun in Canada? How to get a gun licence? How many people have guns? How many guns in Canada?

thegunblog.ca

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Just mentioning that there are a lot more legal guns out there, than the officials will admit to.

 

[brihard]

Agreed. But I think if the CPC wins convincingly it may also spell the end of the more extreme SoCon element of the CPC. The big tent may be getting smaller as the CPC move to appeal to centrists.

Yup. There will always be a fringe, some of it of a lunatic bent. Right now a few disparate fringe elements have gravitated to the PPC because… I don’t know, a combination of realizing mainstream politics doesn’t want or need them, and Bernier’s fading but lingering name recognition? Anyway, CPC have gotten the pressure release valve that they’ve needed to shed some baggage and to become an electorally viable contender again, and O’Toole as a leader is capable of guiding transition and pulling votes from the centre instead of the extremes- better than I had anticipated, frankly. I was on team MacKay but I’m happy with how O’Toole is doing things. It’s healthy for the CPC and it’s healthy for Canada.

For gun owners, it’s the best electoral option that could actually bear real fruit.it will not represent an ideal outcome, but there is no ideal outcome that would actually be a thing.

 

[Haggis]

For gun owners, it’s the best electoral option that could actually bear real fruit.it will not represent an ideal outcome, but there is no ideal outcome that would actually be a thing.

Brihard, while I will admit to an initial flash of panic at O'Toole's announcement today, on reflection I see it as a masterstroke. He has taken the wind out of the LPC's sails. He can now say he shares a common goal with Trudeau, public safety. Then the paths diverge towards the LPC's focus on the low hanging fruit of legal guns and licensed owners and the CPC's focus on the harder long game of illegal guns and criminals. Despite his statement that the OIC will remain in force (for now), he has given himself the soft landing of instituting a simplified classification system which will then nullify some if not all of the OIC.

All of that takes time, particularly if he wants to do it right. Anyone who thought a CPC win would have ARs back on the range by Sept 21st is delusional.