The Next Conservative Leader

[Fishbone Jones]

Scheer was my first choice. Scheer won. That makes me very happy.  ;D

Bitch, whine, complain and predict all you wish. For now, I'm not listening. [

 

[armyvern]

Scheer was my first choice. Scheer won. That makes me very happy.  ;D

Mine too.  :cheers:

 

[Loachman]

Mr Scheer was one of my three choices, and the other two also finished in the top three, and I have no complaint.

Conservatives do well when they govern as proper Conservatives, and stop trying to play Liberal-lite. The last government lacked vision, conviction, and direction towards its end and deserved to be put down. This current one never had any of those.

Ontario has been stuck with McWynnety for too long because provincial Conservatives have failed to realize the need to act as Conservatives.

Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, Brian Mulroney (in his first few years), Stephen Harper (in his first few years), and Mike Harris did well. Wishy-washy pseudo-Conservatives do not.

I hope that those millennials that voted for the Sun King and McWynnety enjoy the ride. They - and their great-grandchildren - will be paying for it a lot longer than I will, and I'm still paying for Trudeau I's contribution to our national debt.

 

[Remius]

Lots to digest with this win. 

As much as people think that social conservative issues like revisiting abortion and gay marriage rights are no longer on the table, there is a certain segment of the party that want them revisited. 

I believe Mr. Scheer when he says he does not want to restart any debate on those issues but he will have pressure from that segment that does.  The policy convention will be interesting indeed and I'm curious to see what will come of that.

Mr. Scheer has some challenges though.  Keeping his party in line while balancing free speech for members of his caucus will be an interesting one to see him navigate.  Harper essentially had to muzzle some of his caucus and I'm curious if Scheer will ultimately have to do that as well.  He isn't well known to most Canadians and will need to introduce himself in a positive way.  His smiling affable manner though is a good trait but that might only get him so far if his party begins to make statements that will ignite the other parties into fear mongering. 

I see him as basically maintaining the CPC's status quo and will not likely shift too much to the center.  I'm not convinced he can beat Trudeau in the next election so his tenure might be short lived.

Side prediction on my part:  Carolyn Mulroney runs in the next General election.  Scheer loses and steps down and she makes a run for it.  The timing is right as Trudeau will be a spent force by the election that follows. 

 

[Cdn Blackshirt]

@Jed

I hope you are right, but if you actually talk to the Millenials in particular, the majority are completely ignorant of just about everything (no offense to those who have educated themselves), which doesn't provide me much optimism.....

 

[GAP]

I see him as basically maintaining the CPC's status quo and will not likely shift too much to the center.  I'm not convinced he can beat Trudeau in the next election so his tenure might be short lived.

I doubt very much that Scheer can defeat Trudeau in 2019....Liberals tend to stay in power until they totally piss off the populace to the point they are just bat-shit crazy.....then they let the conservatives in for awhile.... :2c:

 

[Halifax Tar]

I  have no issue with Sheer and wish him luck but I think he is, was, and will always be destined to be a sacrificial lamb on the alter of the 2019 Federal election.

I don't think JT is going to be ousted, barring  something drastic.  This country is pretty deeply in love our PM regardless of the facts surrounding his tenure as our PM.

The real chance to unseat JT is 2024, and I have my doubts that Sheer will lead that campaign.  Watch for Ambrose or McKay to miraculously come out of retirement.

Just my  :2c:.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

NOt so sure about that, even CBC is starting to question the lovefest, he may be popular for now, but a leader must do more than show off his socks and the world is a busy place and events may easily disrupt his "sunny ways"

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

And so the CPC have elected another anti-abortion, same-sex-marriage opposing, regressive social conservation as leader. While Scheer's entry into politics is post-merger, nonetheless the CPC has leaned reform instead of PC in this one. He's been an MP since he was 25, and even most of his work experience prior to that was in political/constituency offices... I for one am not inspired by this choice. I was hoping they would elect someone who would bring a forward-thinking platform and give Trudeau a run for his money. I do not see that in this result. Trudeau may have just been handed a second term that he may not deserve.

The CPC needs to be courting my generation better. They failed to do so. The old social-regressive dog just don't hunt anymore with us...

I agree, the CPC is dusting off the same old worn out playbook.  They enjoyed a decade of government mostly due to the damage done by Chretien in the 90s, not because Canadians had dramatically shifted their way of thinking.

Trudeau has helped the Liberals reclaim their position as Canada's "natural governing party".  I don't see Scheer attracting large support in Ontario or Quebec.  I'm a fiscal conservative but the more extreme social conservatives in the CPC scare me.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

It's nice seeing everyone follow the liebral script and trying to define Scheer, by all the old stereotypes, before he even steps foot into the job. Butts is watching. If you all scream abortion and open the debate again, they will use that to try divide the party. Mark my words, watch the liebral machine go to work. Dollars to doughnuts, it'll be one of the first teacup tempests the liebrals' MSM propaganda arm rolls out.

I have faith he'll act more in the party's interest rather than his own. When he says he has no intention of revisiting those issues, I'll tend to believe him, until it's proven otherwise.

I doubt very much that Scheer can defeat Trudeau in 2019....Liberals tend to stay in power until they totally piss off the populace to the point they are just bat-shit crazy.....then they let the conservatives in for awhile.... :2c:

I don't believe I've ever seen a more universal dislike for a sitting PM. His father was hated for ruining the country. Jr. has far outstripped the same hate his father took years to build. Probably because lots of us are still around that watched Sr. perform his social ponzi scam and we know the touchstones and recognise many of them in Jr., that the basement dwellers have never been exposed to.

BTW everyone, my local gypsy supply is currently in a strike position, because of overtime issues created when the MSM bought out entire stocks of fortune telling equipment. If anyone has extras (I KNOW that they exist out there!! ) can I get a crystal ball? That's all I need, got the cape of many pockets and my zircon encrusted turban already.

Still too happy to care.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

It's nice seeing everyone follow the liebral script and trying to define Scheer, by all the old stereotypes, before he even steps foot into the job. Butts is watching. If you all scream abortion and open the debate again, they will use that to try divide the party. Mark my words, watch the liebral machine go to work. Dollars to doughnuts, it'll be one of the first teacup tempests the liebrals' MSM propaganda arm rolls out.

I have faith he'll act more in the party's interest rather than his own. When he says he has no intention of revisiting those issues, I'll tend to believe him, until it's proven otherwise.

I don't believe I've ever seen a more universal dislike for a sitting PM. His father was hated for ruining the country. Jr. has far outstripped the same hate his father took years to build. Probably because lots of us are still around that watched Sr. perform his social ponzi scam and we know the touchstones and recognise many of them in Jr., that the basement dwellers have never been exposed to.

BTW everyone, my local gypsy supply is currently in a strike position, because of overtime issues created when the MSM bought out entire stocks of fortune telling equipment. If anyone has extras (I KNOW that they exist out there!! ) can I get a crystal ball? That's all I need, got the cape of many pockets and my zircon encrusted turban already.

Still too happy to care.

Not attacking Scheer, I just think he doesn't have a hope in hell of knocking off Trudeau in Central Canada.  I'm a Conservative voter but don't see how we can win the next election with this guy at the helm.  He will be painted as the "Reform Party" in disguise and will flop hard.  This experiment has been tried already *cough* Canadian Alliance *cough*. 

I anxiously await to see Scheer pulling up to the cameras on a Seadoo, channeling his inner Stockwell Day:

 

[Altair]

I agree, the CPC is dusting off the same old worn out playbook.  They enjoyed a decade of government mostly due to the damage done by Chretien in the 90s, not because Canadians had dramatically shifted their way of thinking.

Trudeau has helped the Liberals reclaim their position as Canada's "natural governing party".  I don't see Scheer attracting large support in Ontario or Quebec.  I'm a fiscal conservative but the more extreme social conservatives in the CPC scare me.

With the NDP vote in Quebec sinking even lower than it did for the 2015 election and the bloc still fading away,  the liberals are due to pick up some more seats in that province.

I believed that Bernier would have been competative in Quebec, I'm pretty sure that scheer is going to hand that province to the liberals.

Where a scheer lead conservative party picks up enough seats to make up for that to win in 2019 is  beyond me.

If he sticks around long enough he might be PM in 2023. He has youth on his side in that regard. That said, with only slightly over 50 percent support from his party if he loses in 2019 he may not be allowed to stick around, especially if conservative party big guns come out of retirement after that election.

 

[ModlrMike]

With the NDP vote in Quebec sinking even lower than it did for the 2015 election and the bloc still fading away,  the liberals are due to pick up some more seats in that province.

I believed that Bernier would have been comparative in Quebec, I'm pretty sure that scheer is going to hand that province to the liberals.

You presume the Conservatives need Quebec in order to form the government. As Mr Harper proved in 2008, they don't. The Liberals, on the other hand, most likely do. Their primary opponents are the NDP and Bloc, who admittedly crapped the bed last time. This is not to say the Torries shouldn't court Quebec, but neither should they get too hung up on gaining seats there.

Where a scheer lead conservative party picks up enough seats to make up for that to win in 2019 is  beyond me.

If you look at the results of the last election, there's a whole lot of red on the board that could be chipped away at. The Torries have the opportunity to turn over a lot of seats in Ontario. At the risk of generalizing, there's lots of immigrant voters who are socially reserved, and don't much like the direction the Liberals are taking us. The task at hand is for the Conservatives to recruit some of those community leaders to stand for election under the blue banner.

If he sticks around long enough he might be PM in 2023. He has youth on his side in that regard. That said, with only slightly over 50 percent support from his party if he loses in 2019 he may not be allowed to stick around, especially if conservative party big guns come out of retirement after that election.

I'll give you this one, but only if it's an electoral disaster in the next go round. If the Conservatives increase to striking distance, then I think he's pretty much safe. As well, there are some up and coming young Conservatives who could be seasoned in opposition prior to taking the reins for the next big push. Putting them forward prematurely is perhaps not the best idea.

 

[GAP]

I think we need to remember that for the most part this run for the leadership of the Conservatives was mostly by the B team......the leading contenders and potentials backed off, knowing 2019 might be a bridge too far...

 

[Journeyman]

This whole right vs left stuff is not on.

In one fell swoop, you kicked a bunch of Politics profs and students to the curb.  ;D

It's merely a theoretical shorthand -- a simplified means to frame a discussion.  However, as noted here and in several other politics threads, some people are intellectually incapable or personally uninterested in "discussing";  they provide nothing more than poorly-argued, repetitive blather.  Problems tend to come from the extreme ends of the political spectrum, where name-calling often substitutes for informed dialogue.

Now, some have stated that they are fiscally conservative and socially liberal, and I have no problem understanding that stance;  I don't see it as a left/right problem, and personally, I agree with it. 


I try to avoid getting entangled in the politics threads (honestly, I do).  Although I sometimes think to myself "how stupid can one person be?!"  But then, it's as though they hear my thoughts, take it as a challenge, and try to out-stupid previous posts.
      :brickwall:


If this site is your first choice for finding rational and informed political discussions, well.... enjoy your fool's errand.  I'm afraid it's not meant to be. 

I now return you to this latest iteration of    :soapbox:

 

[The Bread Guy]

You presume the Conservatives need Quebec in order to form the government. As Mr Harper proved in 2008, they don't ...

... if they're OK with just a minority government (which is better than NO government, but still ...)

... there's lots of immigrant voters who are socially reserved, and don't much like the direction the Liberals are taking us. The task at hand is for the Conservatives to recruit some of those community leaders to stand for election under the blue banner ...

:nod:

I think we need to remember that for the most part this run for the leadership of the Conservatives was mostly by the B team......the leading contenders and potentials backed off, knowing 2019 might be a bridge too far...

Can't disagree there.

 

[Altair]

You presume the Conservatives need Quebec in order to form the government. As Mr Harper proved in 2008, they don't. The Liberals, on the other hand, most likely do. Their primary opponents are the NDP and Bloc, who admittedly crapped the bed last time. This is not to say the Torries shouldn't court Quebec, but neither should they get too hung up on gaining seats there.

They don't need Quebec to win, true, but it helps them when Quebec is divided. If the LPC can increase their Quebec seat count, which with the collapse of the NDP continuing and the Bloc continuing to stagnate, and the CPC running a candidate that probably wont help them there, the LPC can probably look at increasing their seat count in Quebec. Looking at the numbers right now, they could conceivably go from 40 seats to 55.

If you look at the results of the last election, there's a whole lot of red on the board that could be chipped away at. The Torries have the opportunity to turn over a lot of seats in Ontario. At the risk of generalizing, there's lots of immigrant voters who are socially reserved, and don't much like the direction the Liberals are taking us. The task at hand is for the Conservatives to recruit some of those community leaders to stand for election under the blue banner.

I'm sure they could chip away at some of the LPC support in Ontario, but I doubt Scheer is the guy who is able to penetrate fortress Toronto. So while I could see them chiping away some red, but would that be enough to offset what the LPC picks up in QC?

I'll give you this one, but only if it's an electoral disaster in the next go round. If the Conservatives increase to striking distance, then I think he's pretty much safe. As well, there are some up and coming young Conservatives who could be seasoned in opposition prior to taking the reins for the next big push. Putting them forward prematurely is perhaps not the best idea.

Even if Scheer gets within striking distance, I think if Peter Mackay or Jason Kenney starts to organize for 2023 he's pretty much done.

 

[jmt18325]

NOt so sure about that, even CBC is starting to question the lovefest, he may be popular for now, but a leader must do more than show off his socks and the world is a busy place and events may easily disrupt his "sunny ways"

That's what those of you who dislike him so don't understand - most people are happy with the way he's run things so far.  It's not just personal popularity.

 

[jmt18325]

I don't believe I've ever seen a more universal dislike for a sitting PM.

That says more about the company you keep than anything.  If I was running a poll of my town, and only my town, I'd think you were right.  You'd be wrong, as would most of the people in my town.  Trudeau is popular with a pretty large number of Canadians (enough that he has more support than he did on election day) as is his governing style.  It's that simple.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

He has less support now, than on election day when over 60% of Canadians didn't vote for him. Contrary to that which you want to believe, his popularity is dropping like a lead weight in a vacuum.