Good2Golf said:
Ah, I see. It’s the Navy’s turn. Cutting
edge force projection and coalition contribution only needs to happen at 28kts or less? You’re parroting politically structured/postured argumentation...Classic “either this or that but not both...”
Are you personally confident in your knowledge of the Defence Investment Plan that CSC/JSS/AOPS protions of the NSS would be compromised were FCFP proceed with the existing DIP allocations (based on F35)?
Of course not as I am not privy to that information; however, its well known that the current force structure of the Canadian Armed Forces is unsustainable at current spending levels. With no new money forthcoming, this will not change.
See:
Fiscal Sustainability of Canada’s National
Defence Program
Dated: 26 Mar 15
The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) estimates
that the current force structure of the Department of
National Defence (DND) is unsustainable at current
funding levels. To achieve sustainability, it will be
necessary to change the force structure, increase the
amount of funding allocated to DND, or implement a
combination of the two.
https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/web/default/files/files/files/Defence_Analysis_EN.pdf
This situation has never been rectified, even with all the theatrics of "Strong, Secure, Engaged" and all of the funding promised has been kicked down the road until later, whenever that date materializes. So yes, the Defence Department continues to atrophy capability, year after year.
They also just released a report on the Canadian Surface Combatant program:
https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/web/default/files/Documents/Reports/2019/Canada-Surface-Combatants-update/CSC_Update_2019_Report_E.pdf
Updated estimate cost is $69.8 billion for the program, that's close to $10 billion more than the previous estimate in 2017. It keeps increasing, year after year. Inflation is a real killer!
My entire argument is based around the premise that if no increase in Defence spending as a percentage of our GDP is forthcoming, we will not be able to feed our Defence Department's considerable appetite for cutting edge equipment. How do we build ships while also maintaining a fighter force capability?
You believe the Gripen is ‘okay’....Saab has not formally submitted a proposal that has been evaluated by PSPC, so how certain are you about its capability and merit against all requirement s criteria that your statement is true.
Why not accept less within NSS? Let’s see a reduction in the $100B+ life-cycle costs!
...of course lass the more than $1B of F35 parts built by 1000’s of Canadians to date...but that doesn’t even begin to address the disproportionate costs to keep low volume ‘unique’ aircraft running for three decades. It is a mug’s game to believe that cheaper acquisition costs necessarily equate to lower life-cycle costs...which are known to be lower when shared across much greater quantities
I believe the Gripen to be adequate for our needs. Will it be anywhere close to as capable as the F35, hell no. Will it be capable of bombing brigands in North Africa and the Middle East? Absolument. It's also perfectly capable of chasing down 60s era Tupolev bombers. If a country like Sweden, which is 27% the size of Canada population wise can support their own fighter aircraft, it should not be a problem for us. I am worried about costs to the Canadian Armed Forces of actually operating the F35. Which will come at the expense of other projects, projects that are equally necessary.
I also doubt that we will have 15 Frigates at the end of the CSC, regardless of what the present Government says. The timeline for the CSC is so long that any Government in power can basically say whatever they want. My prediction is due to escalating program costs coupled with inflation, we end up with less than 15 CSCs. We might build some additional ones but maybe they will be sold to someone else (New Zealand, Chile, etc). Every new ship build in Europe has over-promised and under-delivered so what makes us think we will be any different.
Likewise, unless we do something drastic, I can't see affording new capabilities like RPA, Investments in Cyber, replacements for the Aurora, Vic Class Submarines, etc. I trust the PBO way more than I trust any sort of Defence Investment Plan.
The F-22 Raptor is the King Tiger. F-35 is ‘just’ a Panzer V (Panther). Having a Panzer I or II without the sensor/fire control capabilities of the V or Tiger II...is that good enough for Canada? So long as it gets all 15 CSC with bells and whistles, right?
Those may be Janes’ figures, but they are highly
contextual...the fact that a Gripen is cheaper than publicly available (via ATIP) historical all-up cost figures even for a CH-146 Griffon makes me wonder about the applicability of directly relating those figures provided with how Canada would operate and find the aircraft. Spoiler alert when you ATIP the RCAF platform costs, you’ll find the CF-188 is not the most expensive aircraft to operate...shut down those more expensive? Lease alternatives. Shoot solidly for middle of the road?
Cost and life-cycle cost to come down drastically, but still not enough?
Break the piggy bank, aka Canada’s Fiscal Framework / Investment Plan?
Are you sure? Do you know how much Canada spends on the F-18 today? It’s in the public record, and it’s not a small number. I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on the anticipated YFR for FCFP throughout the 30 years of the aircrafts life and how it isn’t affordable within the Department’s already planned budgetary planned allocations.
Without seeing the details of the F35, Super Hornet and Gripen complete packages, I’m not going to parrot jingoistic, subjective critique-lines on any particular contender.
:2c:
Regards
G2G
I have no particular allegiance to the Navy, the Army, the Air Force or any service in the CAF for that matter. What I care about is that Canada is able to deliver capabilities across the spectrum of combat with the budget that we have been allocated by the Government of Canada which according to SIPRI was $21.6 billion last year placing us at #14 in the world for total military spending.
https://sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-04/fs_1904_milex_2018_0.pdf
Canada absolutely needs fighter aircraft but it also needs RPAs, New Maritime Patrol Aircraft, New Ships, Submarines and many other capabilities which it is presently lacking. It somehow needs to fit this in to that $21.6 billion and sacrifices will need to be made for that to be accomplished.
Chris Pook said:
And we are back to Daddy Trudeau's playing footsie with Cuba, Yugoslavia and India in the Non-Aligned Movement.
We have been in the Non-Aligned Movement since the 1970s in all but spirit. Token contributions to Defence of Europe notwithstanding, we have sat out almost all Anglo-American interventions and were an otherwise reluctant player 95% of the time. This isn't to knock the quality of the CAF, it's the reality of the political situation in Canada.
