The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[calculus]

Interesting take from the admittedly somewhat biased Billie Flynn. Some good points are made, however:

Liberal Math – More, Cheaper, Better F-35s for Canada - Billie Flynn - My Blog

More F-35s (88 instead of 65), cheaper ($78M instead of $110M), better (Block 4 instead of Block 3), and best ROI (better than 4 to 1) sounds like an incredibly well executed plan. Except it isn't.

billieflynn.com

 

[suffolkowner]

Interesting take from the admittedly somewhat biased Billie Flynn. Some good points are made, however:

Liberal Math – More, Cheaper, Better F-35s for Canada - Billie Flynn - My Blog

More F-35s (88 instead of 65), cheaper ($78M instead of $110M), better (Block 4 instead of Block 3), and best ROI (better than 4 to 1) sounds like an incredibly well executed plan. Except it isn't.

billieflynn.com

Well I think he's wrong on a few points

1. original order book was for 80 not 65, I think it was the Harper gov't that reduced it not Chretien

2. the 88 fighters are derived from the same planning assumptions as the 65 required to meet our NORAD comittments just with an additional 12 fighters to meet concurrent NATO/NORAD duties

3. This statement seems mostly true to me

More (88 instead of 65), cheaper ($78M instead of $110M), better (Block 4 instead of Block 3), and best ROI (better than 4 to 1) sounds like an incredibly well executed plan even more so with the US ‘Build Back Better’ trend to see Canada get a better deal and squeeze everything from those pesky, insular Yankees.

IMO

Was it the right behaviour from a ally and partner nation, when all other partner nations ponied up for earlier block versions? No
Are we probably wasting our time, money, and personnel with the competition? Yeah probably
Was buying the Australian F-18's a mistake? Yes
Is it a mistake to proceed with the next F-18 update instead of accelerating a F-35 buy? Yes

 

[CBH99]

Well I think he's wrong on a few points

1. original order book was for 80 not 65, I think it was the Harper gov't that reduced it not Chretien

2. the 88 fighters are derived from the same planning assumptions as the 65 required to meet our NORAD comittments just with an additional 12 fighters to meet concurrent NATO/NORAD duties

3. This statement seems mostly true to me

More (88 instead of 65), cheaper ($78M instead of $110M), better (Block 4 instead of Block 3), and best ROI (better than 4 to 1) sounds like an incredibly well executed plan even more so with the US ‘Build Back Better’ trend to see Canada get a better deal and squeeze everything from those pesky, insular Yankees.

IMO

Was it the right behaviour from a ally and partner nation, when all other partner nations ponied up for earlier block versions? No
Are we probably wasting our time, money, and personnel with the competition? Yeah probably
Was buying the Australian F-18's a mistake? Yes
Is it a mistake to proceed with the next F-18 update instead of accelerating a F-35 buy? Yes

Agree with everything you said.

Minus one thing…


Our sheer incompetence has actually put us in a better spot than we were.

You mentioned was it right for us to wait so long while other partner nations placed orders for earlier versions.

By virtue, I agree with you.

But by doddling this long, we will be getting far more capable jets than if we had bought a few years ago. Better jets in all tangible ways.

It’s a shame it’s by accident. But it is what it is. How much money will other nations have to come up with to update their older jets?



Overall, agree with everything you stated and the sentiment of your post.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Well I think he's wrong on a few points
2. the 88 fighters are derived from the same planning assumptions as the 65 required to meet our NORAD comittments just with an additional 12 fighters to meet concurrent NATO/NORAD duties

How will these numbers hold up over the next 30+ yrs with attrition naturally occurring over this time period? Will we not reach a time when we will no longer have enough planes to meet our commitments listed above?

Edit: From what I can see we lost a min. of 20 CF-188’s since they went operational here. If the same attrition rate occurs we can expect to lose 14/15 planes, putting us below of required NORAD commitments, with 0 planes left for any NATO duties.

 

[Czech_pivo]

How will these numbers hold up over the next 30+ yrs with attrition naturally occurring over this time period? Will we not reach a time when we will no longer have enough planes to meet our commitments listed above?

Edit: From what I can see we lost a min. of 20 CF-188’s since they went operational here. If the same attrition rate occurs we can expect to lose 14/15 planes.

 

[Dana381]

Anonymous F-35 Customer Is Getting A New Variant Of The Stealth Jet

An intriguing contract announcement reveals Lockheed Martin is working to design and develop a bespoke F-35 version for a foreign customer.

www.thedrive.com

Any chance this is for a Canadianized variant?

 

[MilEME09]

Anonymous F-35 Customer Is Getting A New Variant Of The Stealth Jet

An intriguing contract announcement reveals Lockheed Martin is working to design and develop a bespoke F-35 version for a foreign customer.

www.thedrive.com

Any chance this is for a Canadianized variant?

Unlikely, unless we get an announcement really soon, my money is on Israel

 

[Weinie]

Unlikely, unless we get an announcement really soon, my money is on Israel

Good supposition. I read somewhere that Israel made more than 2000 mods to the F-4, which they received from the US beginning in 1969. Their Super Phantom, which they developed in 1987 (but never deployed) was phenomenal.

 

[GR66]

Anonymous F-35 Customer Is Getting A New Variant Of The Stealth Jet

An intriguing contract announcement reveals Lockheed Martin is working to design and develop a bespoke F-35 version for a foreign customer.

www.thedrive.com

Any chance this is for a Canadianized variant?

I doubt it...nowhere in the article does it mention the bespoke variant being unarmed, built in Quebec, or gender neutral.

 

[Good2Golf]

Anonymous F-35 Customer Is Getting A New Variant Of The Stealth Jet

An intriguing contract announcement reveals Lockheed Martin is working to design and develop a bespoke F-35 version for a foreign customer.

www.thedrive.com

Any chance this is for a Canadianized variant?

$49M for a bilingual OFP? Could be.

 

[MilEME09]

$49M for a bilingual OFP? Could be.

If that were true someone finally used their head and went straight to final negotiations with Lockheed

 

[SupersonicMax]

$49M for a bilingual OFP? Could be.

"Warlock 2, Renard 3, tournez la manivelle vers l'ouest."
"Warlock 4, lichette"

 

[Good2Golf]

…Renard 3, chien faché!

 

[armrdsoul77]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-fighter-jets-defence-1.6296021

 

[Quirky]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-fighter-jets-defence-1.6296021

"And going to Europe to buy the next fighter jet would be stepping outside decades of alignment with the U.S., particularly when it comes to continental defence, Perry said — which could lead to repercussions for the bilateral relationship between Canada and the U.S."

European countries aren't even buying the gripen. It's been an underperforming embarrassment in every competition it's entered and primarily designed for 2nd and 3rd world developing countries.....

Can't wait to see the circus when we pick it.

 

[MilEME09]

"And going to Europe to buy the next fighter jet would be stepping outside decades of alignment with the U.S., particularly when it comes to continental defence, Perry said — which could lead to repercussions for the bilateral relationship between Canada and the U.S."

European countries aren't even buying the gripen. It's been an underperforming embarrassment in every competition it's entered and primarily designed for 2nd and 3rd world developing countries.....

Can't wait to see the circus when we pick it.

I'll admit the E/F Gripen tries to up its abilities, but absolutely, Canada isn't Sweden, our defense needs are extremely different. If we pick it, I'll be shocked but not surprised, we procurement equipment buy counter how many votes a project can buy, not its value as military equipment

 

[WestIsle]

I'll admit the E/F Gripen tries to up its abilities, but absolutely, Canada isn't Sweden, our defense needs are extremely different. If we pick it, I'll be shocked but not surprised, we procurement equipment buy counter how many votes a project can buy, not its value as military equipment

The costs for the latest Gripen appear to be now about the same as the F35 at least thats what the Thai military has said. The irony of this entire journey has been the constant downgrade an increase in cost for all aircraft other then the F35. The original Super Hornet Bid was billing a cheaper plan but with stealth features added while the Griphen was also supposed to have stealth features while also being much cheaper allowing for many more planes being built in Canada. Now the Super Hornet will not get another block upgrade and the Griphen are the same price while having no stealth features while only being assembled in Nova Scotia.

 

[Quirky]

The costs for the latest Gripen appear to be now about the same as the F35 at least thats what the Thai military has said. The irony of this entire journey has been the constant downgrade an increase in cost for all aircraft other then the F35. The original Super Hornet Bid was billing a cheaper plan but with stealth features added while the Griphen was also supposed to have stealth features while also being much cheaper allowing for many more planes being built in Canada. Now the Super Hornet will not get another block upgrade and the Griphen are the same price while having no stealth features while only being assembled in Nova Scotia.

"adding on" stealth features onto a 4th gen non-stealthy aircraft is a hilarious concept. It's like dressing up your son with girl clothing, this doesn't make him a girl. Then again its 2022 so who knows anymore.

 

[MilEME09]

"adding on" stealth features onto a 4th gen non-stealthy aircraft is a hilarious concept. It's like dressing up your son with girl clothing, this doesn't make him a girl. Then again its 2022 so who knows anymore.

Making a Gen 4.5 with a reduced radar profile isn't that laughable, you are taking Gen 5 tech and applying it to a proven airframe as an upgrade. It is a viable option

 

[Quirky]

Making a Gen 4.5 with a reduced radar profile isn't that laughable, you are taking Gen 5 tech and applying it to a proven airframe as an upgrade. It is a viable option

When the Gen 5 costs less and isn't a pig with lipstick, there's no point other than buying something that "looks" like what we have now.