The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[quadrapiper]

If we cancel the F35 order we are not a serious country. It'd be 10 years before we finish the process to order a new fighter.

Sole source?

 

[Czech_pivo]

If we cancel the F35 order we are not a serious country. It'd be 10 years before we finish the process to order a new fighter.

We’ve paid for the first 16, could the case that we accept these, maybe add another 6 for spares and then pivot to something else for the next 60-80.

 

[Good2Golf]

I would do it system-of-systems wide.

• F-35 > Rafael (or Typhoon)
• MQ-9B > EADS Talarion or Heron TP
• P-8 > P-1
• CSC AEGIS/SPY-7 > CMS330/PAAMS(S)

+

• E-7 > Global Sentry
• Leo2 > K2

 

[MilEME09]

Sole source?

Use the trade war as national security grounds to justify French Rafales? Probably doable

 

[Fabius]

I would do it system-of-systems wide.

• F-35 > Rafael (or Typhoon)
• MQ-9B > EADS Talarion or Heron TP
• P-8 > P-1
• CSC AEGIS/SPY-7 > CMS330/PAAMS(S)

+

• E-7 > Global Sentry
• Leo2 > K2

An interesting thought experiment. What would be the time delay, in such a pivot, to the overall recapitalization of the various fleets?

A SWAG is minimum 3 year delay to all projected IOCs.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I would do it system-of-systems wide.

• F-35 > Rafael (or Typhoon)
• MQ-9B > EADS Talarion or Heron TP
• P-8 > P-1
• CSC AEGIS/SPY-7 > CMS330/PAAMS(S)

+

• E-7 > Global Sentry
• Leo2 > K2

Just one small problem with the naval one: PAAMS is not a radar system - it is an anti-air missile family. The radar is the S1850M, a derivative of the SMART L radar system. So, the CSC AEGIS?SPY 7 replacement should read as CMS330/SMART L or CMS330/S1850M.

 

[PuckChaser]

We’ve paid for the first 16, could the case that we accept these, maybe add another 6 for spares and then pivot to something else for the next 60-80.

How many extra 0s to the contract after Lockmart sues us for canceling on it? This is EH101 all over again and is absolutely a cut our nose off to spite our face. The F35 will be the best fighter for NORAD and other use cases for decades to come. Gripen, Rafale and the like are garbage compared to it and already lost the competition.

An unserious country on defense picks the 2nd place fighter. Our order is 5% of the global orders, the US could care less what we buy but canceling with rusted out fighters being used for NORAD shows we're also now not reliable for defense of North America, playing right into Trumps hands. Buy Korean tanks, EU trucks, EU/Korean subs, but leave this order alone.

 

[Kirkhill]

Yup.

Gripen uses a ITAR-controlled Swedish-licensed variant of the US GE404 engine of the Hornet.

Do the French have a Safran engine that might work? How about Rolls Royce?

 

[Kirkhill]

Just one small problem with the naval one: PAAMS is not a radar system - it is an anti-air missile family. The radar is the S1850M, a derivative of the SMART L radar system. So, the CSC AEGIS?SPY 7 replacement should read as CMS330/SMART L or CMS330/S1850M.

Wasn't Canada involved in developing the SMART radar? It seems to me it was originally in the running for the CSC.

 

[KevinB]

I would do it system-of-systems wide.

• F-35 > Rafael (or Typhoon)
• MQ-9B > EADS Talarion or Heron TP
• P-8 > P-1
• CSC AEGIS/SPY-7 > CMS330/PAAMS(S)

+

• E-7 > Global Sentry
• Leo2 > K2

K2 is probably the only viable change over.

E-7 hasn't occurred, and depending on the program scope - the GS may not be viable.

Attempting to cancel the 4 in order systems would cause chaos, your Budget would be raped by cancellation costs, and you lose access to CMS330 anyway - as LocMart would pull up stakes from Canada and salt the earth as it left, and I doubt it would be the only global defense firm to do so.

Canada would be a laughing stock for years, and Trump would simply be shown he is right and he may as well occupy parts of Canada for security reasons.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Problem with cancelling the F35, is that a lot of parts are being made here, our aerospace industry would be up in arms. I wonder if those parts are subject to the tariffs?

 

[Kirkhill]

K2 is probably the only viable change over.

E-7 hasn't occurred, and depending on the program scope - the GS may not be viable.

Attempting to cancel the 4 in order systems would cause chaos, your Budget would be raped by cancellation costs, and you lose access to CMS330 anyway - as LocMart would pull up stakes from Canada and salt the earth as it left, and I doubt it would be the only global defense firm to do so.

Canada would be a laughing stock for years, and Trump would simply be shown he is right and he may as well occupy parts of Canada for security reasons.

The simple solution is associated with our tendency to buy small quantities. If our budget is expanding then meet the commitments already made (16 F35s, 4 SPY 7s, etc - Maybe 12 HIMARS ) and go shopping elsewhere for follow on contracts. Again, follow the Poles lead - they have bought Leos, Abrams and K2s before contracting to build their own K2s. Given how cautious the Poles are you'd think they'd been screwed over before.

 

[Cloud Cover]

How many extra 0s to the contract after Lockmart sues us for canceling on it? This is EH101 all over again and is absolutely a cut our nose off to spite our face. The F35 will be the best fighter for NORAD and other use cases for decades to come. Gripen, Rafale and the like are garbage compared to it and already lost the competition.

An unserious country on defense picks the 2nd place fighter. Our order is 5% of the global orders, the US could care less what we buy but canceling with rusted out fighters being used for NORAD shows we're also now not reliable for defense of North America, playing right into Trumps hands. Buy Korean tanks, EU trucks, EU/Korean subs, but leave this order alone.

Force Majeure

 

[Good2Golf]

Canada would be a laughing stock for years, and Trump would simply be shown he is right and he may as well occupy parts of Canada for security reasons.

The consensus seems we are already, so it can’t really get any worse. As we clearly have seen, aligning with tens and hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. defense production gets us…check’s latest WH statements…more tariffs, so maybe it’s time for a rebrand…rediscover our Anglo-Franco roots, and do our best to pivot our livelihood and productivity away from the modern day Fenians.

The challenge with the soothsayers’ Trumpsplaining to just “take it, play nice, you have no other options than to accept the whims of a business genius” is that there are absolutely no guarantees or even any basis to trust…

 

[Cloud Cover]

One thing that could happen - and Trump could do this almost instantly - is place a military embargo on Canada and start freezing any of sovereign assets subject to his jurisdiction and liquidate them to pay US defence contractors who might be left out of pocket. And he could even do that to us to refund Russia for our seizing of Russian assets.

Also Australia, Japan, Israel or even Singapore will buy our F35 production slots [or Trump will sell them to Russia ] .

 

[Furniture]

K2 is probably the only viable change over.

E-7 hasn't occurred, and depending on the program scope - the GS may not be viable.

Attempting to cancel the 4 in order systems would cause chaos, your Budget would be raped by cancellation costs, and you lose access to CMS330 anyway - as LocMart would pull up stakes from Canada and salt the earth as it left, and I doubt it would be the only global defense firm to do so.

Canada would be a laughing stock for years, and Trump would simply be shown he is right and he may as well occupy parts of Canada for security reasons.

The smart play is to stick to the purchases we have already planned, but migrate away from American systems in the future. Regardless of how good the kit is, continuing to support the defence industry of the nation threatening to annex your country is a dumb idea.

Compared to America, Canada will always be a small fish but globally, Canada is not a small fish, so maybe we can get better deals from others looking to get some of our defence money.

I doubt the European and Asian defence contractors would pull up stakes just because American companies decided to do so... Those European and Asian countries are also engaged in an unstable trading relationship with America. They may see opportunity to expand their market to another rich country, that until recently was pretty solidly in the American sphere.

 

[Cloud Cover]

We’re playing chess and Trump is playing Jamba with a 9 iron.

The smart play is to stick to the purchases we have already planned, but migrate away from American systems in the future. Regardless of how good the kit is, continuing to support the defence industry of the nation threatening to annex your country is a dumb idea.

Compared to America, Canada will always be a small fish but globally, Canada is not a small fish, so maybe we can get better deals from others looking to get some of our defence money.

I doubt the European and Asian defence contractors would pull up stakes just because American companies decided to do so... Those European and Asian countries are also engaged in an unstable trading relationship with America. They may see opportunity to expand their market to another rich country, that until recently was pretty solidly in the American sphere.

 

[Kirkhill]

The consensus seems we are already, so it can’t really get any worse. As we clearly have seen, aligning with tens and hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. defense production gets us…check’s latest WH statements…more tariffs, so maybe it’s time for a rebrand…rediscover our Anglo-Franco roots, and do our best to pivot our livelihood and productivity away from the modern day Fenians.

The challenge with the soothsayers’ Trumpsplaining to just “take it, play nice, you have no other options than to accept the whims of a business genius” is that there are absolutely no guarantees or even any basis to trust…

Thing is, there never was a reason to trust. It was always lack of will - will to defend and will to spend. It was more profitable to ignore the threat.

The difference between us and the Europeans, they know that there may come the day when they have to defend their borders, again, from their "allies".

 

[Kirkhill]

Canada would be a laughing stock for years, and Trump would simply be shown he is right and he may as well occupy parts of Canada for security reasons.

Fuckem if they can't take a joke. Worse things have happened.

As for wondering about what if? That is what has got us to this position. Might as well die trying.

 

[suffolkowner]

K2 is probably the only viable change over.

E-7 hasn't occurred, and depending on the program scope - the GS may not be viable.

Attempting to cancel the 4 in order systems would cause chaos, your Budget would be raped by cancellation costs, and you lose access to CMS330 anyway - as LocMart would pull up stakes from Canada and salt the earth as it left, and I doubt it would be the only global defense firm to do so.

Canada would be a laughing stock for years, and Trump would simply be shown he is right and he may as well occupy parts of Canada for security reasons.

The smart play is to stick to the purchases we have already planned, but migrate away from American systems in the future. Regardless of how good the kit is, continuing to support the defence industry of the nation threatening to annex your country is a dumb idea.

Compared to America, Canada will always be a small fish but globally, Canada is not a small fish, so maybe we can get better deals from others looking to get some of our defence money.

I doubt the European and Asian defence contractors would pull up stakes just because American companies decided to do so... Those European and Asian countries are also engaged in an unstable trading relationship with America. They may see opportunity to expand their market to another rich country, that until recently was pretty solidly in the American sphere.

a few non American purchases to send a message are in order. Ones that arent counter productive. Cutting the F35 would not be one of them IMO

we could lease some K2's and get an assembly/production plant in Canada while donating our Leo2's to Ukraine
go ahead with the Globaleye 6500 for AEW
are PULS/Lynx and K239 really inferior to HIMARS?