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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

Thucydides said:
If anyone seriously believes the RCAF will get a new fighter to replace the CF-18 once the CF-35 is cancelled, then you are smoking something that you should share with the rest of us.

The CF-18 replacement will be on infinite hold like the Sea King replacement, and eventually the RCAF will be a global favourite at air shows with its "historic aircraft" flypasts.

Being unable to interoperate effectively with allies, much less be able to fight in the interconnected "networked nodes" forms of high end warfare (or defend against the peer enemies who also fight that way) is of little concern to politicians who rarely pay in blood or treasure for the results of their decisions.
Wouldn't shock me at all if they just announce the purchase of 40 or so new Super Hornets and that's all she wrote, although hopefully they would at least purchase the Ultra Hornet.  It would be an easy way out for them, wouldn't be overly expensive, wouldn't get them into a political dogfight over new fighters, and as they aren't going to pour a bunch of money into the military, all of the other fighters would likely be too expensive anyway.  Just saying.
 
AlexanderM said:
Wouldn't shock me at all if they just announce the purchase of 40 or so new Super Hornets and that's all she wrote

Trudeau promised an open competition.  There will be one.
 
He didn't say when or that they will actually buy anything.  I think he said lots of things during an election to get elected.  What a shock!
 
jmt18325 said:
Trudeau promised an open competition.  There will be one.

Are you going to keep us a running tally of things he promised but didn't do? You may run out of data storage space on the internet.
 
How could the F-35 even participate in a competition?
The way I understand it, Canada would have to get out of the JSF MoU.
Otherwise, there's no way LM would would enter the competition, as it kind of would compete against itself... (JSF MoU deal vs FMS deal)
 
He promised to spend money.  He will.  He promised to pull out the 18's.  He will.  He promised to equip the military with blue berets.  He will.  What makes you think he won't keep the promise to run an open competition for fighters?  But I would like to see the look on his face when he discovers that those cheaper models really don't exist.  He will end up spending more and getting less.  Perhaps he will use some of his 10 billion infrastructure fund.
 
PuckChaser said:
Are you going to keep us a running tally of things he promised but didn't do? You may run out of data storage space on the internet.

I think I'll actually let him swear in a cabinet before I start railing on him for broken promises.
 
YZT580 said:
I would like to see the look on his face when he discovers that those cheaper models really don't exist.

We can't know that without actually knowing the cost of anything first.  As it stands now, the Super Hornet is quite a bit less, especially over the lifecycle, given prices from Boeing and Lockheed Martin.
 
Eye In The Sky said:
He didn't say when or that they will actually buy anything.

Uhhh....

We will not buy the F-35 stealth fighter-bomber.
We will immediately launch an open and transparent competition to replace the CF-18 fighter aircraft. The primary mission of our fighter aircraft should remain the defence of North America, not stealth first-strike capability.
We will reduce the procurement budget for replacing the CF-18s, and will instead purchase one of the many, lower-priced options that better match Canada’s defence needs.

https://www.liberal.ca/files/2015/10/A-new-plan-for-a-strong-middle-class.pdf

Their platform is nice in that it's easy to keep track of their promises.
 
jmt18325 said:
We will immediately launch an open and transparent competition to replace the CF-18 fighter aircraft. The primary mission of our fighter aircraft should remain the defence of North America, not stealth first-strike capability.
We will reduce the procurement budget for replacing the CF-18s, and will instead purchase one of the many, lower-priced options that better match Canada’s defence needs.

You cannot have an open and transparent competition to replace the CF-18 if you automatically exclude certain aircraft because you don't like them politically. That's the exact opposite of an open and transparent competition.
 
jmt18325 said:
Their platform is nice in that it's easy to keep track of their promises.

I've lived through a bunch - far too big of a bunch - of Liberal governments.

You haven't clued in to the pattern yet.
 
Loachman said:
I've lived through a bunch - far too big of a bunch - of Liberal governments.

You haven't clued in to the pattern yet.

I find it best to judge people and governments on their own merit. 
 
PuckChaser said:
You cannot have an open and transparent competition to replace the CF-18 if you automatically exclude certain aircraft because you don't like them politically. That's the exact opposite of an open and transparent competition.

I agree with you - the problem is that the F-35 has been made politically unpalatable. 
 
http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vo4/no4/comment-eng.asp

I see many noteworthy quotes but will use this one:

"For many observers, the Chrétien government’s approach to defence, and defence procurement in particular, was typified by its politically expedient cancellation of the EH101 helicopter in 1993, by its dithering over a successor to the Labrador, and by its abject failure to secure a replacement for the Sea King. Honouring a campaign promise at one’s first cabinet meeting is, these days, nothing short of remarkable, but a more sensible and cost-effective compromise would have retained the original search and rescue (SAR) variant of the EH101 while cancelling the maritime variant. This would have reduced the cancellation costs, expedited the phase-out of the Labrador, and provided a somewhat better equipped SAR helicopter than the Cormorant."

I realize Mr Trudeau is not CHRÉTIEN,  but I submit they are both Liberals and , well...

1297664761213_ORIGINAL.jpg


Replace EH101 with F35,  and Labrador with FWSAR.




 
jmt18325 said:
I find it best to judge people and governments on their own merit.

It's still the same old Liberal Party, still the same old culture.

A fresh figurehead merely conceals those pulling the strings beneath - and they've not changed.
 
EITS, I too wish our next PM well, but I too am concerned about the remaining concentration of 'old school' liberals within the PM's sphere of influence.  Half a billion dollars to cancel the EH-101, a billion for AdScam, a billion for the long gun registry, a billion for Ontario liberals' cancelation of the gas-fired power plant, the mysterious unknown "fourth investor" in the golf course...  Some will counter that the amount doesn't matter and that Duffy's $90k is just as bad morally (conveniently ignoring Mac Harb's millions, of course)...perhaps morally so, but $3-4B takes a chunk out of Joe and Jane Canada's pockets in a real, impactful way.  I won't be directly impacted when the F-35 is cancelled, but I feel for those in the Canadian aerospace industry currently enjoying well-paying employment from the $637M of current  JSF-related contracts who will lose their jobs when the contracts aren't renewed and the companies that employ them are not permitted to bid on the follow-on estimated $10-11B of future JSF contracts Industry Canada assesses as likely should Canada purchase the F-35.  So e people say it is easy to re-assign contracts to aerospace industries from other vendors, however that is a bit of a facile view.  JSF industrial participation had been crafted over an eighth of a century, since 2002, when the. DND Associate Deputy Minister (Materiel), Alan Williams, signed the first industrial participation MOU in Washington. Anything cobbled together in months cannot possibly have the integration and infusion that JSF had. At least on the plus side, we're talking industrial technological benefits (ITBs), not 'offsets', so we shouldn't end up with new restaurant chains hiring serving staff in return for buying jets made in country XXX - entirely I relate to aerospace. Don't laugh, part of the offset package that Mcdonnell Douglas provide included a new seafood restaurant chain being introduced into Canada...Red Lobster...yup, welcome CF-188 and those yummy buttery biscuits served before your Captain's Shrimp Platter arrives. :nod:

My indirect costs will be the same as those that will be borne by other Canadians as well, and unavoidable at this point.  Opportunity cost, both in money (look at how much we are paying for CH-148 Cyclone now, than had we continued with the EH-101 back in 1993. Chretien's hubris cost both in the short-term and later, not to mention the delays to replacing the Sea King.  People look to JSF and say it's a program that has taken too long...they either conveniently forget, or truly don't appreciate that Eurofighter Typhoon was originally called EFA2000, or European Fighter Aircraft (to be operational in) 2000...missed that target date by about a tenth of a century. For what it's worth, I think history will bear out that Canada was run in a fighter race and, a few meters from the finish line, pulled aside and returned to the starting line wih a different runner...it doesn't matter how fast that runner is, they won't finish the race faster than the first runner, unless the race course is significantly shortened.

I've said before that I don't have a dog in the fight re: F-35, and that's entirely true operationally. Can we put in place a NORAD/Fortress Canada compliant solution? Probably.  Will it be able to endure the way that the CF-18 will (hopefully) endure? Not sure, but we are likely to see the CF-18 undergo some of the same strain as the Sea King and Buffalo, being drawn out significantly past the originally intended lifetime of the aircraft.

:2c:

G2G
 
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