If I were King/PM/advisor for a day, in the current climate, here’s what I’d do:
- Assess a pure-NORAD min F-35 fleet. I agree with you, it is likely more than 16. I don’t know the particular task and force generation sortie rate to support that since I didn’t do any hard Cheyenne Mtn/Peterson AFB time, but my gut says it would be in the mid-30s to low-40s area as a min. Intent would be to address Continental defence/se requirements for: a) valid alliance reasons; and b) address the past ‘not doing our share’ rhetoric. I would commit Canada to purchase this many F-35s…and order them.
- for the Expeditionary role, non-NORAD role, I would think of a fleet of Rafale similar size to the Continental defence/se requirements. The Rafale is no slouch in its own right. More than likely far more operationally capable than some of the “5th Gen” fighters out there (Su-57 anyone).