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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

Doesn’t make it the best alternative for Canada. Rafale far better if we’re going to split-fleet things. Non-ITAR controlled (Gripen remains ITAR controlled), nuclear weapon capable, future compatibility with *USN CVNs if we go with Rafale M, follow-on fabrication in Canada, etc.
I think they just trialed a non-ITAR engine in them.
 
If I were King/PM/advisor for a day, in the current climate, here’s what I’d do:

- Assess a pure-NORAD min F-35 fleet. I agree with you, it is likely more than 16. I don’t know the particular task and force generation sortie rate to support that since I didn’t do any hard Cheyenne Mtn/Peterson AFB time, but my gut says it would be in the mid-30s to low-40s area as a min. Intent would be to address Continental defence/se requirements for: a) valid alliance reasons; and b) address the past ‘not doing our share’ rhetoric. I would commit Canada to purchase this many F-35s…and order them.

- for the Expeditionary role, non-NORAD role, I would think of a fleet of Rafale similar size to the Continental defence/se requirements. The Rafale is no slouch in its own right. More than likely far more operationally capable than some of the “5th Gen” fighters out there (Su-57 anyone).

I would switch your fleets around.

The F-35 for NORAD is a waste of resources. The main threat is old Russian (Chinese?) bombers releasing lots of ALCMs. For that you need a aircraft that can carry lots of AAMs. The F-35 doesn't have the internal capacity to carry large number of missiles and would have to mount them externally, negating its stealth capability.

The Rafale on the other hand has up to 14 hardpoints so it can carry lots of AAMs to take out Russian launched ALCMs. Perfect for NORAD.

The F-35 was designed, using its stealth and sensor/communication capabilities to penetrate enemy first lines defenses, not to chase after wayward aircraft, drug smugglers, aircraft hijacked by terrorists or worse case Russian/Chinese bombers.

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