The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Rainbow1910]

IF the long term direction is to steer away from US gear as much as possible, then the prudent decision is to stick with the 88 fighters and at the same time team with with a non-US next gen consortium and invest heavily with them and become a tier 1 level contributor. Get in that delivery line early and then when those planes start coming online start selling off the F35's until you get them down to zero.

If you think this is going to happen with our Government and its procurement system, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well. I don't think there is any universe that Canada becomes anything like a "tier 1 level contributor" in any of these programs unless we start throwing Saudi Arabia levels of money out, or suddenly manifest our entire Arrow era aerospace sector back from the grave.

 

[Czech_pivo]

No clue which is why I was asking.

Understood.
Because if the 14 represent a 'per yr' payment for each of the years 2029-30-31-32 - then that's the original 16+14+14+14+14 = 72 air frames - only 16 down from the original order. So, potentially the F35 order moves down to 72 and the Gripen(?) order will potentially be 72?

Will the RCAF be in such a negative operational ability with 72 F35's and potentially an unknown number of Gripens? Put aside all the hand wringing about the mixed fleet and lack of resources - because if the RCAF is given the resources/money to address this issue then they've been given their marching orders, now execute them

 

[Czech_pivo]

If you think this is going to happen with our Government and its procurement system, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well. I don't think there is any universe that Canada becomes anything like a "tier 1 level contributor" in any of these programs unless we start throwing Saudi Arabia levels of money out, or suddenly manifest our entire Arrow era aerospace sector back from the grave.

Fine - settle for Silver, tier 2.

As for the bridge to sell, I'll take the Gordie Howe Bridge over some old, clapped out bridge in Brooklyn.

 

[ytz]

What is the minimum required to stay in the queue?

Could it be that they just went with that for now?

Brings us to 30 confirmed, nowhere near what I would guess is needed even if we went with a mixed fleet.

There's no minimum. We buy and pay up for slots. The Americans usually flex around international orders.

On the schedule FFCP has:

2026 - 2028: 16
2029: 18
2030: 18
2031: 18
2032: 18

An order of 14 for 2029 signals continued optionality for dual fleet. They need 50 - 60 to retire the Hornet. If we're only buying 14 in 2029. This means that we can buy say 8-10 in each of the subsequent years and retire the Hornet in 2032 as planned and commence the second fleet that year too. Alternatively, the 88 order could get stretched out past 2032.

 

[ytz]

If you think this is going to happen with our Government and its procurement system, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well. I don't think there is any universe that Canada becomes anything like a "tier 1 level contributor" in any of these programs unless we start throwing Saudi Arabia levels of money out, or suddenly manifest our entire Arrow era aerospace sector back from the grave.

100%. I am proud of our aerospace sector. But I can't believe the delusion people have to think we can contribute substantially to 5th/6th gen programs on any of the technologies that are actually critical. We can build landing gear. We aren't going to be building the radar, the adaptive cycle engine or the avionics or stealthy IRST.

 

[Czech_pivo]

There's no minimum. We buy and pay up for slots. The Americans usually flex around international orders.

On the schedule FFCP has:

2026 - 2028: 16
2029: 18
2030: 18
2031: 18
2032: 18

An order of 14 for 2029 signals continued optionality for dual fleet. They need 50 - 60 to retire the Hornet. If we're only buying 14 in 2029. This means that we can buy say 8-10 in each of the subsequent years and retire the Hornet in 2032 as planned and commence the second fleet that year too. Alternatively, the 88 order could get stretched out past 2032.

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

On this link below it shows 8 planes in the 2026 & 2027 timeframe, followed by 80 planes from the 2028-2032 timeframe

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

 

[Czech_pivo]

100%. I am proud of our aerospace sector. But I can't believe the delusion people have to think we can contribute substantially to 5th/6th gen programs on any of the technologies that are actually critical. We can build landing gear. We aren't going to be building the radar, the adaptive cycle engine or the avionics or stealthy IRST.

Understood.
But can we build Flaps? Can we build Rudders? Can we build wings? Can we build eject seats? Can we build nosecones? Can we building wiring harnesses/cabling? Can we supply the aluminum? Can we supply the copper? Can we supply the titanium? Can we supply the rare earths material?

The nice and sexy pieces are the radar, the stealthy IRST, the engines, etc - but all the rest has to come from somewhere. Why can't this be part of our contributions?

 

[ytz]

Understood.
But can we build Flaps? Can we build Rudders? Can we build wings? Can we build eject seats? Can we build nosecones? Can we building wiring harnesses/cabling? Can we supply the aluminum? Can we supply the copper? Can we supply the titanium? Can we supply the rare earths material?

The nice and sexy pieces are the radar, the stealthy IRST, the engines, etc - but all the rest has to come from somewhere. Why can't this be part of our contributions?

It can. But that's not where the job creation, value creation or intellectual property is. This is what people are misunderstanding.

 

[ytz]

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

On this link below it shows 8 planes in the 2026 & 2027 timeframe, followed by 80 planes from the 2028-2032 timeframe

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

See:

We expect:

• the first four aircraft to be delivered in 2026,
• the next six in 2027,
• and the next six in 2028,
• with the full fleet to arrive in time to enable the phase out of the CF-18s by the end of 2032.

Announcement regarding the F-35 acquisition - Canada.ca

I am joining you from the traditional territory of the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation, the Huron-Wendat and the Haudenosaunee.

www.canada.ca