The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Rainbow1910]

IF the long term direction is to steer away from US gear as much as possible, then the prudent decision is to stick with the 88 fighters and at the same time team with with a non-US next gen consortium and invest heavily with them and become a tier 1 level contributor. Get in that delivery line early and then when those planes start coming online start selling off the F35's until you get them down to zero.

If you think this is going to happen with our Government and its procurement system, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well. I don't think there is any universe that Canada becomes anything like a "tier 1 level contributor" in any of these programs unless we start throwing Saudi Arabia levels of money out, or suddenly manifest our entire Arrow era aerospace sector back from the grave.

 

[Czech_pivo]

No clue which is why I was asking.

Understood.
Because if the 14 represent a 'per yr' payment for each of the years 2029-30-31-32 - then that's the original 16+14+14+14+14 = 72 air frames - only 16 down from the original order. So, potentially the F35 order moves down to 72 and the Gripen(?) order will potentially be 72?

Will the RCAF be in such a negative operational ability with 72 F35's and potentially an unknown number of Gripens? Put aside all the hand wringing about the mixed fleet and lack of resources - because if the RCAF is given the resources/money to address this issue then they've been given their marching orders, now execute them

 

[Czech_pivo]

If you think this is going to happen with our Government and its procurement system, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well. I don't think there is any universe that Canada becomes anything like a "tier 1 level contributor" in any of these programs unless we start throwing Saudi Arabia levels of money out, or suddenly manifest our entire Arrow era aerospace sector back from the grave.

Fine - settle for Silver, tier 2.

As for the bridge to sell, I'll take the Gordie Howe Bridge over some old, clapped out bridge in Brooklyn.

 

[ytz]

What is the minimum required to stay in the queue?

Could it be that they just went with that for now?

Brings us to 30 confirmed, nowhere near what I would guess is needed even if we went with a mixed fleet.

There's no minimum. We buy and pay up for slots. The Americans usually flex around international orders.

On the schedule FFCP has:

2026 - 2028: 16
2029: 18
2030: 18
2031: 18
2032: 18

An order of 14 for 2029 signals continued optionality for dual fleet. They need 50 - 60 to retire the Hornet. If we're only buying 14 in 2029. This means that we can buy say 8-10 in each of the subsequent years and retire the Hornet in 2032 as planned and commence the second fleet that year too. Alternatively, the 88 order could get stretched out past 2032.

 

[ytz]

If you think this is going to happen with our Government and its procurement system, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well. I don't think there is any universe that Canada becomes anything like a "tier 1 level contributor" in any of these programs unless we start throwing Saudi Arabia levels of money out, or suddenly manifest our entire Arrow era aerospace sector back from the grave.

100%. I am proud of our aerospace sector. But I can't believe the delusion people have to think we can contribute substantially to 5th/6th gen programs on any of the technologies that are actually critical. We can build landing gear. We aren't going to be building the radar, the adaptive cycle engine or the avionics or stealthy IRST.

 

[Czech_pivo]

There's no minimum. We buy and pay up for slots. The Americans usually flex around international orders.

On the schedule FFCP has:

2026 - 2028: 16
2029: 18
2030: 18
2031: 18
2032: 18

An order of 14 for 2029 signals continued optionality for dual fleet. They need 50 - 60 to retire the Hornet. If we're only buying 14 in 2029. This means that we can buy say 8-10 in each of the subsequent years and retire the Hornet in 2032 as planned and commence the second fleet that year too. Alternatively, the 88 order could get stretched out past 2032.

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

On this link below it shows 8 planes in the 2026 & 2027 timeframe, followed by 80 planes from the 2028-2032 timeframe

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

 

[Czech_pivo]

100%. I am proud of our aerospace sector. But I can't believe the delusion people have to think we can contribute substantially to 5th/6th gen programs on any of the technologies that are actually critical. We can build landing gear. We aren't going to be building the radar, the adaptive cycle engine or the avionics or stealthy IRST.

Understood.
But can we build Flaps? Can we build Rudders? Can we build wings? Can we build eject seats? Can we build nosecones? Can we building wiring harnesses/cabling? Can we supply the aluminum? Can we supply the copper? Can we supply the titanium? Can we supply the rare earths material?

The nice and sexy pieces are the radar, the stealthy IRST, the engines, etc - but all the rest has to come from somewhere. Why can't this be part of our contributions?

 

[ytz]

Understood.
But can we build Flaps? Can we build Rudders? Can we build wings? Can we build eject seats? Can we build nosecones? Can we building wiring harnesses/cabling? Can we supply the aluminum? Can we supply the copper? Can we supply the titanium? Can we supply the rare earths material?

The nice and sexy pieces are the radar, the stealthy IRST, the engines, etc - but all the rest has to come from somewhere. Why can't this be part of our contributions?

It can. But that's not where the job creation, value creation or intellectual property is. This is what people are misunderstanding.

 

[ytz]

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

On this link below it shows 8 planes in the 2026 & 2027 timeframe, followed by 80 planes from the 2028-2032 timeframe

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

See:

We expect:

• the first four aircraft to be delivered in 2026,
• the next six in 2027,
• and the next six in 2028,
• with the full fleet to arrive in time to enable the phase out of the CF-18s by the end of 2032.

Announcement regarding the F-35 acquisition - Canada.ca

I am joining you from the traditional territory of the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation, the Huron-Wendat and the Haudenosaunee.

www.canada.ca

 

[Czech_pivo]

It can. But that's not where the job creation, value creation or intellectual property is. This is what people are misunderstanding.

Yes, 100% true again but that doesn't mean that we throw up our hands and go sit in the corner never to move from there.

If we don't break the cycle of always bringing nothing but Timbits to the party then we might as well start brushing up on our knowledge of the Star Spangled Banner.

This current government seems to be trying to move us in the direction from sitting in the corner to at least starting to mingle a bit at the party - and that's a very good thing for us. It needs to continue, it needs to be reinforced, it needs to expand and it needs to be nurtured.

I feel that one of the biggest challenges that is being faced across all facets of the Federal Government, and the CAF by default, is that for the first time since the end of the Second World War we are faced with the dilemma and the responsibility of thinking independently (largely) from the US. And, this is frightening to many, especially to the majority of those over the age of 50 in positions of responsibility and power.

When I worked in the Czech Republic in the mid 90's there was a term used by the younger Czechs for those Czech's over the age of 40yrs but under 70yrs old- they were called the 'Lost Generation'. They were called this because they were the ones that grew up in the 1950-89 era of Communism where the State did virtually all of their thinking for these individuals - where they went to school, what they could study, where they could go on holidays, where they lived, what they watched on TV or listened to on the radio, what they could buy - everything. So when Communism fell and they had the ability to choose - choose just about anything - the majority of those in that age bracket froze up, they didn't know how to survive initially, they didn't like having to make their own decisions on their own, they found it too difficult and a significant portion continue to vote for the 'reformed' Communists and their silver tongued words of how the State would take care of them again.

I'm feeling some of this same 'nostalgia' here in Canada right now, that we just need to ride out the next 3yrs to a new President comes along and all will be well again - our American friends will bring us back into the fold and we'll be taken care of again, we'll have unfettered access to their markets, we'll be able to buy our winter condo's in Florida again, we'll be able to ride on their coat tails in defending NA again. All will be right in the world and we'll still have our OAS, Dental Plan and Health Care. As Carney said in Davos - Nostalgia is not Strategy.

 

[Czech_pivo]

See:

Announcement regarding the F-35 acquisition - Canada.ca

I am joining you from the traditional territory of the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation, the Huron-Wendat and the Haudenosaunee.

www.canada.ca

One comes dated from June of 2025 and one from January of 2023. There's a delta between the time.

 

[ytz]

Yes, 100% true again but that doesn't mean that we throw up our hands and go sit in the corner never to move from there.

If we don't break the cycle of always bringing nothing but Timbits to the party then we might as well start brushing up on our knowledge of the Star Spangled Banner.

This current government seems to be trying to move us in the direction from sitting in the corner to at least starting to mingle a bit at the party - and that's a very good thing for us. It needs to continue, it needs to be reinforced, it needs to expand and it needs to be nurtured.

I feel that one of the biggest challenges that is being faced across all facets of the Federal Government, and the CAF by default, is that for the first time since the end of the Second World War we are faced with the dilemma and the responsibility of thinking independently (largely) from the US. And, this is frightening to many, especially to the majority of those over the age of 50 in positions of responsibility and power.

When I worked in the Czech Republic in the mid 90's there was a term used by the younger Czechs for those Czech's over the age of 40yrs but under 70yrs old- they were called the 'Lost Generation'. They were called this because they were the ones that grew up in the 1950-89 era of Communism where the State did virtually all of their thinking for these individuals - where they went to school, what they could study, where they could go on holidays, where they lived, what they watched on TV or listened to on the radio, what they could buy - everything. So when Communism fell and they had the ability to choose - choose just about anything - the majority of those in that age bracket froze up, they didn't know how to survive initially, they didn't like having to make their own decisions on their own, they found it too difficult and a significant portion continue to vote for the 'reformed' Communists and their silver tongued words of how the State would take care of them again.

I'm feeling some of this same 'nostalgia' here in Canada right now, that we just need to ride out the next 3yrs to a new President comes along and all will be well again - our American friends will bring us back into the fold and we'll be taken care of again, we'll have unfettered access to their markets, we'll be able to buy our winter condo's in Florida again, we'll be able to ride on their coat tails in defending NA again. All will be right in the world and we'll still have our OAS, Dental Plan and Health Care. As Carney said in Davos - Nostalgia is not Strategy.

Feelings don't change military or commercial reality.

I've argued before that the way to do this is to take a long term view. Building Gripens in Canada is pointless. Join GCAP and fight for higher value share. Launch a domestic autonomous systems programs and building something like Australia's Ghost Bat. These are things that would build industrial capacity in concrete and relevant ways than rivteing together lego blocks shipped from Sweden.

One comes dated from June of 2025 and one from January of 2023. There's a delta between the time.

The AG report is probably accounting for LockMart delays when they had problems with Block IV aircraft.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Feelings don't change military or commercial reality.

I've argued before that the way to do this is to take a long term view. Building Gripens in Canada is pointless. Join GCAP and fight for higher value share. Launch a domestic autonomous systems programs and building something like Australia's Ghost Bat. These are things that would build industrial capacity in concrete and relevant ways than rivteing together lego blocks shipped from Sweden.



The AG report is probably accounting for LockMart delays when they had problems with Block IV aircraft.

Again, I agree with our need to increase GCAP or an alternative to it.

Commercial and Military realities can and should change when there is a legitimate reason to do so and based on the last 14 months I believe that there is.