The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Rainbow1910]

IF the long term direction is to steer away from US gear as much as possible, then the prudent decision is to stick with the 88 fighters and at the same time team with with a non-US next gen consortium and invest heavily with them and become a tier 1 level contributor. Get in that delivery line early and then when those planes start coming online start selling off the F35's until you get them down to zero.

If you think this is going to happen with our Government and its procurement system, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well. I don't think there is any universe that Canada becomes anything like a "tier 1 level contributor" in any of these programs unless we start throwing Saudi Arabia levels of money out, or suddenly manifest our entire Arrow era aerospace sector back from the grave.

 

[Czech_pivo]

No clue which is why I was asking.

Understood.
Because if the 14 represent a 'per yr' payment for each of the years 2029-30-31-32 - then that's the original 16+14+14+14+14 = 72 air frames - only 16 down from the original order. So, potentially the F35 order moves down to 72 and the Gripen(?) order will potentially be 72?

Will the RCAF be in such a negative operational ability with 72 F35's and potentially an unknown number of Gripens? Put aside all the hand wringing about the mixed fleet and lack of resources - because if the RCAF is given the resources/money to address this issue then they've been given their marching orders, now execute them

 

[Czech_pivo]

If you think this is going to happen with our Government and its procurement system, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well. I don't think there is any universe that Canada becomes anything like a "tier 1 level contributor" in any of these programs unless we start throwing Saudi Arabia levels of money out, or suddenly manifest our entire Arrow era aerospace sector back from the grave.

Fine - settle for Silver, tier 2.

As for the bridge to sell, I'll take the Gordie Howe Bridge over some old, clapped out bridge in Brooklyn.

 

[ytz]

What is the minimum required to stay in the queue?

Could it be that they just went with that for now?

Brings us to 30 confirmed, nowhere near what I would guess is needed even if we went with a mixed fleet.

There's no minimum. We buy and pay up for slots. The Americans usually flex around international orders.

On the schedule FFCP has:

2026 - 2028: 16
2029: 18
2030: 18
2031: 18
2032: 18

An order of 14 for 2029 signals continued optionality for dual fleet. They need 50 - 60 to retire the Hornet. If we're only buying 14 in 2029. This means that we can buy say 8-10 in each of the subsequent years and retire the Hornet in 2032 as planned and commence the second fleet that year too. Alternatively, the 88 order could get stretched out past 2032.

 

[ytz]

If you think this is going to happen with our Government and its procurement system, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well. I don't think there is any universe that Canada becomes anything like a "tier 1 level contributor" in any of these programs unless we start throwing Saudi Arabia levels of money out, or suddenly manifest our entire Arrow era aerospace sector back from the grave.

100%. I am proud of our aerospace sector. But I can't believe the delusion people have to think we can contribute substantially to 5th/6th gen programs on any of the technologies that are actually critical. We can build landing gear. We aren't going to be building the radar, the adaptive cycle engine or the avionics or stealthy IRST.

 

[Czech_pivo]

There's no minimum. We buy and pay up for slots. The Americans usually flex around international orders.

On the schedule FFCP has:

2026 - 2028: 16
2029: 18
2030: 18
2031: 18
2032: 18

An order of 14 for 2029 signals continued optionality for dual fleet. They need 50 - 60 to retire the Hornet. If we're only buying 14 in 2029. This means that we can buy say 8-10 in each of the subsequent years and retire the Hornet in 2032 as planned and commence the second fleet that year too. Alternatively, the 88 order could get stretched out past 2032.

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

On this link below it shows 8 planes in the 2026 & 2027 timeframe, followed by 80 planes from the 2028-2032 timeframe

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

 

[Czech_pivo]

100%. I am proud of our aerospace sector. But I can't believe the delusion people have to think we can contribute substantially to 5th/6th gen programs on any of the technologies that are actually critical. We can build landing gear. We aren't going to be building the radar, the adaptive cycle engine or the avionics or stealthy IRST.

Understood.
But can we build Flaps? Can we build Rudders? Can we build wings? Can we build eject seats? Can we build nosecones? Can we building wiring harnesses/cabling? Can we supply the aluminum? Can we supply the copper? Can we supply the titanium? Can we supply the rare earths material?

The nice and sexy pieces are the radar, the stealthy IRST, the engines, etc - but all the rest has to come from somewhere. Why can't this be part of our contributions?

 

[ytz]

Understood.
But can we build Flaps? Can we build Rudders? Can we build wings? Can we build eject seats? Can we build nosecones? Can we building wiring harnesses/cabling? Can we supply the aluminum? Can we supply the copper? Can we supply the titanium? Can we supply the rare earths material?

The nice and sexy pieces are the radar, the stealthy IRST, the engines, etc - but all the rest has to come from somewhere. Why can't this be part of our contributions?

It can. But that's not where the job creation, value creation or intellectual property is. This is what people are misunderstanding.

 

[ytz]

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

On this link below it shows 8 planes in the 2026 & 2027 timeframe, followed by 80 planes from the 2028-2032 timeframe

Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

See:

We expect:

• the first four aircraft to be delivered in 2026,
• the next six in 2027,
• and the next six in 2028,
• with the full fleet to arrive in time to enable the phase out of the CF-18s by the end of 2032.

Announcement regarding the F-35 acquisition - Canada.ca

I am joining you from the traditional territory of the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation, the Huron-Wendat and the Haudenosaunee.

www.canada.ca

 

[Czech_pivo]

It can. But that's not where the job creation, value creation or intellectual property is. This is what people are misunderstanding.

Yes, 100% true again but that doesn't mean that we throw up our hands and go sit in the corner never to move from there.

If we don't break the cycle of always bringing nothing but Timbits to the party then we might as well start brushing up on our knowledge of the Star Spangled Banner.

This current government seems to be trying to move us in the direction from sitting in the corner to at least starting to mingle a bit at the party - and that's a very good thing for us. It needs to continue, it needs to be reinforced, it needs to expand and it needs to be nurtured.

I feel that one of the biggest challenges that is being faced across all facets of the Federal Government, and the CAF by default, is that for the first time since the end of the Second World War we are faced with the dilemma and the responsibility of thinking independently (largely) from the US. And, this is frightening to many, especially to the majority of those over the age of 50 in positions of responsibility and power.

When I worked in the Czech Republic in the mid 90's there was a term used by the younger Czechs for those Czech's over the age of 40yrs but under 70yrs old- they were called the 'Lost Generation'. They were called this because they were the ones that grew up in the 1950-89 era of Communism where the State did virtually all of their thinking for these individuals - where they went to school, what they could study, where they could go on holidays, where they lived, what they watched on TV or listened to on the radio, what they could buy - everything. So when Communism fell and they had the ability to choose - choose just about anything - the majority of those in that age bracket froze up, they didn't know how to survive initially, they didn't like having to make their own decisions on their own, they found it too difficult and a significant portion continue to vote for the 'reformed' Communists and their silver tongued words of how the State would take care of them again.

I'm feeling some of this same 'nostalgia' here in Canada right now, that we just need to ride out the next 3yrs to a new President comes along and all will be well again - our American friends will bring us back into the fold and we'll be taken care of again, we'll have unfettered access to their markets, we'll be able to buy our winter condo's in Florida again, we'll be able to ride on their coat tails in defending NA again. All will be right in the world and we'll still have our OAS, Dental Plan and Health Care. As Carney said in Davos - Nostalgia is not Strategy.

 

[Czech_pivo]

See:

Announcement regarding the F-35 acquisition - Canada.ca

I am joining you from the traditional territory of the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation, the Huron-Wendat and the Haudenosaunee.

www.canada.ca

One comes dated from June of 2025 and one from January of 2023. There's a delta between the time.

 

[ytz]

Yes, 100% true again but that doesn't mean that we throw up our hands and go sit in the corner never to move from there.

If we don't break the cycle of always bringing nothing but Timbits to the party then we might as well start brushing up on our knowledge of the Star Spangled Banner.

This current government seems to be trying to move us in the direction from sitting in the corner to at least starting to mingle a bit at the party - and that's a very good thing for us. It needs to continue, it needs to be reinforced, it needs to expand and it needs to be nurtured.

I feel that one of the biggest challenges that is being faced across all facets of the Federal Government, and the CAF by default, is that for the first time since the end of the Second World War we are faced with the dilemma and the responsibility of thinking independently (largely) from the US. And, this is frightening to many, especially to the majority of those over the age of 50 in positions of responsibility and power.

When I worked in the Czech Republic in the mid 90's there was a term used by the younger Czechs for those Czech's over the age of 40yrs but under 70yrs old- they were called the 'Lost Generation'. They were called this because they were the ones that grew up in the 1950-89 era of Communism where the State did virtually all of their thinking for these individuals - where they went to school, what they could study, where they could go on holidays, where they lived, what they watched on TV or listened to on the radio, what they could buy - everything. So when Communism fell and they had the ability to choose - choose just about anything - the majority of those in that age bracket froze up, they didn't know how to survive initially, they didn't like having to make their own decisions on their own, they found it too difficult and a significant portion continue to vote for the 'reformed' Communists and their silver tongued words of how the State would take care of them again.

I'm feeling some of this same 'nostalgia' here in Canada right now, that we just need to ride out the next 3yrs to a new President comes along and all will be well again - our American friends will bring us back into the fold and we'll be taken care of again, we'll have unfettered access to their markets, we'll be able to buy our winter condo's in Florida again, we'll be able to ride on their coat tails in defending NA again. All will be right in the world and we'll still have our OAS, Dental Plan and Health Care. As Carney said in Davos - Nostalgia is not Strategy.

Feelings don't change military or commercial reality.

I've argued before that the way to do this is to take a long term view. Building Gripens in Canada is pointless. Join GCAP and fight for higher value share. Launch a domestic autonomous systems programs and building something like Australia's Ghost Bat. These are things that would build industrial capacity in concrete and relevant ways than rivteing together lego blocks shipped from Sweden.

One comes dated from June of 2025 and one from January of 2023. There's a delta between the time.

The AG report is probably accounting for LockMart delays when they had problems with Block IV aircraft.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Feelings don't change military or commercial reality.

I've argued before that the way to do this is to take a long term view. Building Gripens in Canada is pointless. Join GCAP and fight for higher value share. Launch a domestic autonomous systems programs and building something like Australia's Ghost Bat. These are things that would build industrial capacity in concrete and relevant ways than rivteing together lego blocks shipped from Sweden.



The AG report is probably accounting for LockMart delays when they had problems with Block IV aircraft.

Again, I agree with our need to increase GCAP or an alternative to it.

Commercial and Military realities can and should change when there is a legitimate reason to do so and based on the last 14 months I believe that there is.

 

[ytz]

Commercial and Military realities can and should change when there is a legitimate reason to do so and based on the last 14 months I believe that there is.

I'm not talking about us changing them. You should realize that all those programs we want to join also have governments who have their requirements.

 

[dapaterson]

There's never a good time to ship aircraft with cement blocks in place of radar, but this is probably the worst time to do so.

U.S. Delivers New F-35 Fighters Without Radars Due to Upgrade Delays, Mounting Issues | Defense Express

New F-35s arrive without radars as AN/APG-85 upgrade delays force U.S. Air Force to use ballast as temporary fix

en.defence-ua.com

 

[KevinB]

Current F-35 Configuration Complicates Fielding Of APG-85 Radar - Avionics International

Radar mountings in the nose of the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter are different for the current AN/APG-81 by Northrop Grumman and the future AN/APG-85 radar, also by Northrop Grumman–a difference which has helped […]

www.aviationtoday.com

Don't worry it is just ours...

 

[Colin Parkinson]

There's never a good time to ship aircraft with cement blocks in place of radar, but this is probably the worst time to do so.

U.S. Delivers New F-35 Fighters Without Radars Due to Upgrade Delays, Mounting Issues | Defense Express

New F-35s arrive without radars as AN/APG-85 upgrade delays force U.S. Air Force to use ballast as temporary fix

en.defence-ua.com

awkward......

 

[Kirkhill]

Now you're thinking.....

CCAs are more autonomous aircraft are supposed to be $40-80M. And they are supposed to be the bulk of the force. They also don't need to be part of the actual program directly. CCAs should be plug and play if they are built using open standards. There's even theories that they wouldn't be controlled by fighter pilots but by ABMs on the AEWC aircraft. We don't need to join any 6th gen consortium to build CCAs. Just look at what the Aussies have accomplished with the homegrown Wedgetail and Ghost Bat:

There is a lot of downward pressure on that 40-80 number.

The number, in my opinion, is indicative of the aspirations of the aircraft manufacturers that are used to prices pushing through the 100 MUSD mark to the 2 BUSD level.

At the other end of the spectrum, in the 4-8 MUSD spectrum you have the manufacturers of training targets and cruise missiles saying they can pump up their software for a lot lower cost.

And even they are under pressure from governments to drop their prices by another factor of 10 and increase production by a like factor.

Low Cost Cruise Missiles for 300 to 400 KUSD

Long range autonomous UAVs for 4-8 MUSD

Programming evasive manoeuvers into cruise missiles

Japan's New Anti-Ship Cruise Missile Barrel Rolls To Evade Defenses

One of the many capabilities of the new SSM is the ability to spiral during its attack run to help evade close-in gun systems.

www.twz.com

....

I'm betting that it is easier to build a more capable, and cheap, cruise missile or target drone than it is to reduce the costs of a conventional aircraft.

 

[Kirkhill]

US Marines Flight Test XQ-58A Valkyrie With Link-16 Capabilities

The US Marine Corps has demonstrated the Link-16 tactical communication system on the XQ-58A Valkyrie unmanned aerial vehicle.

thedefensepost.com

XQ-58A Valkyrie​

The XQ-58A has a cruising speed of Mach 0.72, a maximum altitude of 45,000 feet (13,716 meters), and a range of approximately 3,000 miles (4,828 kilometers).

It costs around $5.5 million, including test, launch, and support equipment, while the XQ-58B has a cheaper price tag of $4 million.

The company aims to bring the cost down further to $2 million per unit, less than many current missiles.

US Marine Corps Picks Northrop Grumman And Kratos For CCA

A loyal wingman drone to accompany US Marine Corps (USMC) crewed fighter jets will be provided by Kratos and Northrop Grumman (NG).

navyleaders.com

 

[Kirkhill]

The past head of the RAF's view....

UK defence warned against complacency on drones and AI

Defence experts have warned MPs that drones and artificial intelligence are reshaping warfare at a pace many armed forces still fail to fully grasp,

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

He pointed to Israel’s ability to rapidly establish air dominance over Iran during a recent 12-day campaign, suggesting that success depended not only on traditional air power, but also on “clever drone-based, cyber-based and intelligence-led capabilities”. He warned that he did not yet see this blend of thinking fully reflected in UK force development.

Dr Keith Dear, CEO and founder of Cassi, told MPs that debate on drones had shifted dramatically over time, from initial scepticism, to a view that drones mattered only as a supporting capability for crewed systems. He argued that this still misunderstood the scale and speed of technological change.

Dear said autonomous systems were improving at an accelerating rate, with AI models moving from completing tasks comparable to seconds of human work in 2023, to tasks taking humans an hour by 2025. On current trajectories, he suggested AI could reach the equivalent of a full working year of human output by 2029.