The latest news on the ongoing affair as whether Canada will acquire the Gripen and if we do; how many? The possible acquistion of Globaleye AEW&C aircraft is also discussed.
Not surprisingly the RCAF has some objections to acquiring the Globaleye .
The only avenues where it makes sense for a split fleet of 72 F-35A and 72 Gripen E/F is if we're focused on domestic jobs production and developing our aviation industry. I'd argue we can do these items without sticking the RCAF with an inferior platform. In every other metric besides anti-American spite, it makes zero sense to double the fleet with a slow to produce, upgraded 4th generation fighter and plan to operate it for the foreseeable future.
From what I can see, the current F-35 delivery schedule will have all 88 aircraft in the hands of the RCAF between 2032 and 2034. If we're charitable and assume a contract is signed this year with Saab to start immediate work on an assembly facility (yes assembly, not production/manufacturing), we're likely looking at 5 years best case scenario just to get the facility operational. Delays could push this further and it takes time for the facility and its workers to grow proficient. Saab has a low rate of production domestically, requiring aircraft for Sweden while also having to assist Brazil in its manufacture and assembly process and looking to fulfill orders to a few relatively small foreign clients & Ukraine as well. Even once our facility is online, we're largely assembling parts coming from Saab and manufacturing limited amounts of our own from scratch.
By the time a factory would be nominally operational in 2031, we would have 52 F-35A's delivered to the RCAF and another 18 on the way that year. We would somehow need to scrape together enough Gripen's to set up our own squadrons, once we take the time to set up an alternate pilot training program, build the infrastructure and begin preparing for delivery. The CF-18 fleet would be largely transitioned to the F-35 by this point anyway, and preparing to do even more. Where are the additional pilots and associated staff going to come from for double the fleet? Even if we could do training largely in Sweden and pry a few aircraft from the production line, we're going to be into the mid to late 2030's in all likelihood before the Gripen would be operational in any meaningful way in Canada.
So now the RCAF finds itself operating a souped up 4th generation fighter that is largely worse than the other half of the split fleet, on a far slower delivery cadence, being assembled in Canada, with few foreign operators while both our allies and enemies are fielding increasingly large amounts of 5th and even 6th generation fighters. Are we seriously going to be operating Gripen E/F past the 2060's given their late delivery and lifecycle? That comes off to me as a poor financial decision and an even worse military decision. Modernized Russian and Chinese 4th generation fighters can give the Gripen E/F a run for its money, let alone even something like the SU-57 or any of the Chinese options. The RCAF would be losing overmatch capability for half of its fleet, with duplication of capability in some aspects while the Gripen is inferior as a fighting machine overall.
I feel for the RCAF, their core procurement project has been politized to high hell and seems caught in a limbo that looks increasingly like we're going to be saddled with a sub-par mix of platforms. It would be far more prescient for the RCAF to throw its eggs into unmanned wingman and 6th gen fighter baskets than line them up for the Gripen.