The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[DBNSG]

This is a ridiculous strawman...

Lots of people here who support a split fleet have valid reasons, like building industrial capacity... You know, the thing that actually wins wars.

There is also the reality that if buying aircraft for the RCAF means jobs in Canada, Canadian voters are more likely to want the RCAF to get new aircraft more than every 40+years. The first F-18s came into service with Canada in October 1982... That's nearly 44 years ago. Why did it take so long to replace them? Because it's a big bill, not directly and obviously tied to jobs in Canada. Why does the CA have LAVs? It's not because they are the best IFVs in the world, it's because buying more LAVs means the GDLS plant in London stays open and well paid jobs stay in Canada...

Not a straw man at all. Its sadly typical of the complete ignorance of Defence among the average Canadian. They see the Gripen as an easy cheap Fuck Trump move primarily because their ignorance of most defence matters allows them to think its easy and cheap . A throwaway subject that when I start asking questions like how many Fighters does Canada need, how long does it take to train Pilots and where are our Airbases and how many are there. Blank stares and more swigs of beer. Appally lack of basic information except absolutely sure it will Fuck Trump.

 

[Altair]

Not a straw man at all. Its sadly typical of the complete ignorance of Defence among the average Canadian. They see the Gripen as an easy cheap Fuck Trump move primarily because their ignorance of most defence matters allows them to think its easy and cheap . A throwaway subject that when I start asking questions like how many Fighters does Canada need, how long does it take to train Pilots and where are our Airbases and how many are there. Blank stares and more swigs of beer. Appally lack of basic information except absolutely sure it will Fuck Trump.

I love it when people cite people outside of the people they are talking actively talking to as if it somehow makes a point.

Yeah, sure, the average Canadian is woefully ignorant of the minutia of fighter procurement, defense needs and industrial policy.

That said, we are discussing that here, so...I fail to see what your point is.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Not a straw man at all. Its sadly typical of the complete ignorance of Defence among the average Canadian. They see the Gripen as an easy cheap Fuck Trump move primarily because their ignorance of most defence matters allows them to think its easy and cheap . A throwaway subject that when I start asking questions like how many Fighters does Canada need, how long does it take to train Pilots and where are our Airbases and how many are there. Blank stares and more swigs of beer. Appally lack of basic information except absolutely sure it will Fuck Trump.

We have multiple scenario's here for 6th Gen:

1) Saab only
2) German/Spain/Sweden
3) GCAP
4) Saab/SK
5) France
6) SK
7) All by ourselves

There is NO US F-47 option.

So, pick one. You seem dead against #1. Which one do you like?

I'm all for 72+ F35's BUT at the sometime we need to choose one of the options that I've laid out, conjunction, I want Canada to have a role that results in some sustainable new industrial capacity created here what greatly expands our sovereignty and ability produce 6th gen fighters (parts) within Canada.

 

[HavokFour]

GCAP is superior simply because the F-47 has very unamerican canards, in my extremely non-expert opinion.

But also on a serious note the F-47 may turn out to be the airforce equivalent of the BBG-1. Time will tell.

 

[Czech_pivo]

GCAP is superior simply because the F-47 has very unamerican canards, in my extremely non-expert opinion.

But also on a serious note the F-47 may turn out to be the airforce equivalent of the BGG(X). Time will tell.

With us buying 22 M346's and ITPS buying another 6, we are suddenly becoming tight with the Italians and Leonardo. As I've speculated earlier, with the RCAF buying 22 M346's, it looks like we are buying more than what is required for training a fleet of 88 airframes. With 22 M346's that translates into 50-70 pilots trained each and every year.

 

[QV]

Uncomfortable as that may be, it's accurate.

I see I'm taking some heat for this.

Bottom line is, for more access to high tech US hardware (such as the F47), Canada would certainly need to tighten up the current relationship a lot. But if Canada wants to push away from the US, as PMMC has insinuated to the joy of many here, then it goes to say Canada can count on less and less US access and will be forced to rely on less reliable and less aligned allies. This is not in our national interest, IMMO.

This isn't a novel concept and if that notion hurts some of your sensibilities, I do not care.

 

[KevinB]

I love it when people cite people outside of the people they are talking actively talking to as if it somehow makes a point.

Yeah, sure, the average Canadian is woefully ignorant of the minutia of fighter procurement, defense needs and industrial policy.

That said, we are discussing that here, so...I fail to see what your point is.

You also (and several others here) tend to gloss over issues that have been brought up here repeatedly.

1) Creating a Gen4 Manufacturing facility in Canada isn’t going to be economically viable.

2) Saab has no Gen 5 Experience and at this point is an aimless orphan sitting around in the Gen 6 area (to be fair Canada is still sitting at the door).

3) At this junction in time no one is going to invest in a Gen 4 Fighter, as a new addition.

Those three points should be enough for anyone to get off the Gripen hype train.

The ship sailed, the only viable option is the F-35 for Canada.

Now, the future - the F-35 fleet won’t last forever, and the other aspect is those pesky ‘loyal wingman’ concepts.

If Canada wanted to be a serious player it would jump into GCAP (the realistically most viable 6 gen option at this point, beyond observer status and pony up as a full partner. - heck sell it as Elbows Up whatever for all I care.

That is a much more practical and effective use of Canadian Tax Dollars than throwing it on some sort of Saab Gripen boondoggle bonfire.

I’m not throwing shade at Saab as a whole, they do have a lot of products that are useful to Canada, and partnerships that can expand — but buying a new gen 4 aircraft at this juncture is just throwing money away to say F Trump and will hurt Canada in the long run.

 

[Altair]

You also (and several others here) tend to gloss over issues that have been brought up here repeatedly.

1) Creating a Gen4 Manufacturing facility in Canada isn’t going to be economically viable.

Yet other nations continue to order the Rafale, Eurofighter, F16 bloc whatever, and the Gripen.

Darn all of those economically unviable airframes.

2) Saab has no Gen 5 Experience and at this point is an aimless orphan sitting around in the Gen 6 area (to be fair Canada is still sitting at the door).

Neither does France, yet everyone thinks they can do it. I get it bro, only the mighty and all so smart USA can build planes, yes?

3) At this junction in time no one is going to invest in a Gen 4 Fighter, as a new addition.

Yet other nations continue to order the Rafale, Eurofighter, F16 bloc whatever, and the Gripen.

Those three points should be enough for anyone to get off the Gripen hype train.

The ship sailed, the only viable option is the F-35 for Canada.

Shocking, only the American fighter aircraft is viable. Darn all those other dual fighter nations.

Now, the future - the F-35 fleet won’t last forever, and the other aspect is those pesky ‘loyal wingman’ concepts.

If Canada wanted to be a serious player it would jump into GCAP (the realistically most viable 6 gen option at this point, beyond observer status and pony up as a full partner. - heck sell it as Elbows Up whatever for all I care.

That is a much more practical and effective use of Canadian Tax Dollars than throwing it on some sort of Saab Gripen boondoggle bonfire.

If SAAB is indeed in talks with Airbus and there is a Spanish German Swedish (1939?) program set up in the collapse of the Franco-German one, partnering with SAAB would be ideal.

I’m not throwing shade at Saab as a whole, they do have a lot of products that are useful to Canada, and partnerships that can expand — but buying a new gen 4 aircraft at this juncture is just throwing money away to say F Trump and will hurt Canada in the long run.

You are certainly welcome to your opinion.

 

[Furniture]

Not a straw man at all. Its sadly typical of the complete ignorance of Defence among the average Canadian. They see the Gripen as an easy cheap Fuck Trump move primarily because their ignorance of most defence matters allows them to think its easy and cheap . A throwaway subject that when I start asking questions like how many Fighters does Canada need, how long does it take to train Pilots and where are our Airbases and how many are there. Blank stares and more swigs of beer. Appally lack of basic information except absolutely sure it will Fuck Trump.

Ok, so what bearing does that have on the conversation on this site?

I know where both of our fighter bases are, I have worked on both, though thankfully only ever posted to one. The pilot pipeline is long and has choke points, but that doesn't mean we should plan to maintain the status quo.

I know Canada needs more than 88 fighters, because we will lose some to technical issues, pilot error, or some combination of both. That's before we even get into the reality that in a war, we will lose aircraft and pilots. Buying more F-35s right now is pretty unpalatable politically, so our options are hope we never lose an aircraft, or buy a second fighter and make them here.

1) Creating a Gen4 Manufacturing facility in Canada isn’t going to be economically viable.

The goal isn't profitability, it's capability. If we can't make even 4.5 gen aircraft, what are we going to do in a real war when our 88 F-35s are all used up and America is too busy replacing their losses? Throw sticks and angry words at the enemy?

2) Saab has no Gen 5 Experience and at this point is an aimless orphan sitting around in the Gen 6 area (to be fair Canada is still sitting at the door).

So we partner with an experienced aircraft manufacturer as equals rather than being the perpetually outside "customer". It has already been mentioned that Germany is looking at Saab as a potential partner for their 6th gen fighter. Germany, Sweden, and Canada as partners is a lot better than Canada outside of everything, hoping big daddy America will let us have some toys eventually.

3) At this junction in time no one is going to invest in a Gen 4 Fighter, as a new addition.

At the outbreak of WWII nobody was buying modified whaling ships as warships either... But when it came down to it, what could be made was worth far more than fancy plans that didn't exist and couldn't be made.

The ship sailed, the only viable option is the F-35 for Canada.

Canada already owns F-35s... so in a way you're correct. The F-35 is viable, and already a reality. As I mentioned above though, 88 isn't enough for a real fight, and being at the back end of the order line behind America is a terrible way to plan to go to war. The Gripen isn't as stealthy as the F-35, but it is far from useless, and when a real war kicks-off, we(the collective West) will need as much industrial capacity as possible to keep the fight going, and much of that capacity will be used to build "good enough" systems like the Rafale, Typhoon, Gripen, etc...

 

[DBNSG]

We have multiple scenario's here for 6th Gen:

1) Saab only
2) German/Spain/Sweden
3) GCAP
4) Saab/SK
5) France
6) SK
7) All by ourselves

There is NO US F-47 option.

So, pick one. You seem dead against #1. Which one do you like?

I'm all for 72+ F35's BUT at the sometime we need to choose one of the options that I've laid out, conjunction, I want Canada to have a role that results in some sustainable new industrial capacity created here what greatly expands our sovereignty and ability produce 6th gen fighters (parts) within Canada.

FAR too soon to make that pick, especially given the lightening rod the subject of Canadian Fighter selection seems to be.

I don't envy the Government as the subject is gaining third rail status and may drive folks to maybe an NDP or other party choice come next election. I don't see the payoff for the government buying anything less than the 65 F-35's needed to put 36 on the Ramp for Norad commitments. What price is the Government willing to pay to reduce capability, dump responsibility on American units and create concern in Congress? Next to the obvious Trade concerns this decision has the potential to get us noticed for the wrong reasons south of the border. We Canadians seem to be in this bubble that discounts the fact that America has options after we make ours. Are we willing to pay for that?

I love it when people cite people outside of the people they are talking actively talking to as if it somehow makes a point.

Yeah, sure, the average Canadian is woefully ignorant of the minutia of fighter procurement, defense needs and industrial policy.

That said, we are discussing that here, so...I fail to see what your point is.

Yet You do not fail to be obtuse. My point is while all of Us on this forum have a definite interest in this subject we are NOT the knuckleheads that will be making the decision. The Ignorant will be making this choice which moves the file down the road and Screw the RCAF .
Why hasn't the Government outlined the Canadian parts that go into every F -35? How come the Government has not emphasized the Tier 3 level contribution Canada has participated in for twenty years? The reason is the Knuckleheads in Government see the subject as a throwaway item to be moved on with the least amount of effort but instead they have created a Litening rod.

 

[Czech_pivo]

You also (and several others here) tend to gloss over issues that have been brought up here repeatedly.

1) Creating a Gen4 Manufacturing facility in Canada isn’t going to be economically viable.

2) Saab has no Gen 5 Experience and at this point is an aimless orphan sitting around in the Gen 6 area (to be fair Canada is still sitting at the door).

3) At this junction in time no one is going to invest in a Gen 4 Fighter, as a new addition.

Those three points should be enough for anyone to get off the Gripen hype train.

The ship sailed, the only viable option is the F-35 for Canada.

Now, the future - the F-35 fleet won’t last forever, and the other aspect is those pesky ‘loyal wingman’ concepts.

If Canada wanted to be a serious player it would jump into GCAP (the realistically most viable 6 gen option at this point, beyond observer status and pony up as a full partner. - heck sell it as Elbows Up whatever for all I care.

That is a much more practical and effective use of Canadian Tax Dollars than throwing it on some sort of Saab Gripen boondoggle bonfire.

I’m not throwing shade at Saab as a whole, they do have a lot of products that are useful to Canada, and partnerships that can expand — but buying a new gen 4 aircraft at this juncture is just throwing money away to say F Trump and will hurt Canada in the long run.

Lots of merit in that.

I’m not willing to completely shut the door on Saab if Germany, Spain and maybe SK, even Poland, can join together.
Otherwise GCAP looks to be the route.

 

[Czech_pivo]

What are the total costs spent on the AOPS, JSS and Rivers - all in, the loans, the free money given, the cost over runs and overpaying - to Irving and Seaspan all so that we have sovereignty over our ship building? Is that economically dead money?

Why is it so much different when it comes to fighters?

Remember, I’m fully onside with the F35 purchase, but I’m also 100% supportive on the next step in creating ‘in house’ abilities here in Canada for our fighters.

 

[ArmyRick]

FAR too soon to make that pick, especially given the lightening rod the subject of Canadian Fighter selection seems to be.

Yup and it easily becomes a major political football to be exploited at election time.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Yup and it easily becomes a major political football to be exploited at election time.

But it’s not too early to make that choice.
GCAP is moving full speed ahead and all of them fly the F35. Why is it ‘too early’ for Canada to be making serious decisions about serious needs now?

 

[Altair]

Yet You do not fail to be obtuse. My point is while all of Us on this forum have a definite interest in this subject we are NOT the knuckleheads that will be making the decision. The Ignorant will be making this choice which moves the file down the road and Screw the RCAF .

Shall we all leave the discussion to those making the decision or are we allowed to keep talking about it here?

Why hasn't the Government outlined the Canadian parts that go into every F -35?

Because they don't find it sufficient, they are unnerved by the attitude the Americans are taking towards "allies" and they are on record saying they want more of the F35 production here, and highlighting what is made here would run counter to that point of leverage.

How come the Government has not emphasized the Tier 3 level contribution Canada has participated in for twenty years? The reason is the Knuckleheads in Government see the subject as a throwaway item to be moved on with the least amount of effort but instead they have created a Litening rod.

Maybe because they have come to the realization that the Americans are untrustworthy and they should be spending all the money that is about to flow into the CAF here at home supporting homegrown industries rather than being at the whim of whoever is in Washington.

 

[Altair]

But it’s not too early to make that choice.
GCAP is moving full speed ahead and all of them fly the F35. Why is it ‘too early’ for Canada to be making serious decisions about serious needs now?

While I would like to hedge our bets, especially to see what airbus is planning to do in relation to SAAB, I wouldn't be sad if we signed on to GCAP tomorrow.

 

[ArmyRick]

But it’s not too early to make that choice.
GCAP is moving full speed ahead and all of them fly the F35. Why is it ‘too early’ for Canada to be making serious decisions about serious needs now?

Politically, its a treacherous move to make. Me? Hell yes. However I would purchase a lot of other shit and not give a damn about Joe Canada and anti-military attitude.

Now, I said its political football not a "though shall not", how does it get sold to Canada? Now? Next Year? You have to convince the public we need this and NOW!

Fail to sell a good program and we get EH101, F35 and Close Combat Vehicle debacles all over again.

 

[Good2Golf]

I see I'm taking some heat for this.

Bottom line is, for more access to high tech US hardware (such as the F47), Canada would certainly need to tighten up the current relationship a lot. But if Canada wants to push away from the US, as PMMC has insinuated to the joy of many here, then it goes to say Canada can count on less and less US access and will be forced to rely on less reliable and less aligned allies. This is not in our national interest, IMMO.

This isn't a novel concept and if that notion hurts some of your sensibilities, I do not care.

You also (and several others here) tend to gloss over issues that have been brought up here repeatedly.

1) Creating a Gen4 Manufacturing facility in Canada isn’t going to be economically viable.

2) Saab has no Gen 5 Experience and at this point is an aimless orphan sitting around in the Gen 6 area (to be fair Canada is still sitting at the door).

3) At this junction in time no one is going to invest in a Gen 4 Fighter, as a new addition.

Those three points should be enough for anyone to get off the Gripen hype train.

The ship sailed, the only viable option is the F-35 for Canada.

Now, the future - the F-35 fleet won’t last forever, and the other aspect is those pesky ‘loyal wingman’ concepts.

If Canada wanted to be a serious player it would jump into GCAP (the realistically most viable 6 gen option at this point, beyond observer status and pony up as a full partner. - heck sell it as Elbows Up whatever for all I care.

That is a much more practical and effective use of Canadian Tax Dollars than throwing it on some sort of Saab Gripen boondoggle bonfire.

I’m not throwing shade at Saab as a whole, they do have a lot of products that are useful to Canada, and partnerships that can expand — but buying a new gen 4 aircraft at this juncture is just throwing money away to say F Trump and will hurt Canada in the long run.

You are both ignoring the value of Canada’s participation with Saab to the benefit of the European aerospace manufacturing dearth that it is currently experience, part of which why Canada was the first (and only, so far) non-European country admitted to SAFE. Gen 4 vs Gen 5 is a secondary factor at best and moot practically, while Canada increasing its productivity (as many here have pointed out rightfully so has waned over the last decade+) and expanding its relationship economically with Europe is a much more important factor in the Government’s eyes. If the F-35 was all that and a bag of chips, Harper would have moved ahead with the buy when he had the chance.